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Microsoft Sticks to 10M Xbox Projection

Zonk posted more than 7 years ago | from the brave-men dept.

XBox (Games) 79

Despite the strong gains of the Wii, and the PS3's sellout, Microsoft is sticking to its claim that it will be the first next-gen console to 10 million units. They're still hoping to reach that goal sometime this year. From the article: "Just how feasible that number is remains open. Microsoft's latest financial report at the end of September revealed that the company had moved 6 million Xbox 360s worldwide. And in his latest analysis, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter said NPD data that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.9 million units, averaging approximately 250,000 units monthly for the last six months. Pachter further predicted that 750,000 Xbox 360 hardware units would be sold in November, and between 1.5 - 2 million units in December, a conservative estimate assuming that PS3 supply levels remained consistent throughout the month leading up to Christmas." That's of course not the case, as PS3 supplies have been low. The article goes on to point out they still may squeak this out; the Blue Dragon bundle pack for the 360 is releasing in Japan this week. Preorders for the system have been selling out, and demand in that market is high for the Xbox 360 for the first time since launch.

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79 comments

Maybe (1)

jrwr00 (1035020) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131580)

A Next-gen race, break out the pop-corn kids this is going to be a good show,

I think the Wii MIGHT get there first,
PS3 wont even get close anytime soon
Xbox 360 Maybe, but i think the Wii migth beat it

Re:Maybe (2, Informative)

HappySqurriel (1010623) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131734)

I was doing the arithmetic a couple of days ago and realized that, if Microsoft and Sony both meet sales projections, Microsoft will have an 8 Million unit lead worldwide. This lead would mean that Sony would have to sell (about) 333,000 more PS3 systems than Microsoft sells XBox 360 systems for the next 2 years to catch up to Microsoft; in order to lead in all regions almost all these sales would have to come from North America and Europe. Until the PS3 matches the sales of the XBox 360 they will have difficulty getting exclusive game development for the system making it very difficult to sell systems.

Re:Maybe (1)

captaincucumber (450913) | more than 7 years ago | (#17135240)

...Microsoft will have an 8 Million unit lead worldwide. This lead would mean that Sony would have to sell (about) 333,000 more PS3 systems than Microsoft sells XBox 360 systems for the next 2 years to catch up to Microsoft

No, it means they'll have to sell 8 million systems to catch up to Microsoft.

Geez. Nice "arithmetic"

Re:Maybe (1)

SuiteSisterMary (123932) | more than 7 years ago | (#17135664)

He left out the magic phrase 'per month.' Sony would have to sell ~330,000 units more than Microsoft *per month* for 24 months, just to catch up.

Re:Maybe (1)

Manmademan (952354) | more than 7 years ago | (#17136914)

considering microsoft is currently isn't selling in any substantial numbers in japan, Sony could make up the 330,000 difference in japan sales alone, even if the US numbers were dead even.

Re:Maybe (1)

amuro98 (461673) | more than 7 years ago | (#17137746)

That might work...except that the Wii is going to make it difficult for Sony to sell 8 million PS3s especially when you consider the fact that the Wii is less than half the price of the 60GB PS3, and the PS3's only decent exclusive title is a military FPS - not a genre that's proven popular over there.

Oh sure, once the Japanese-RPGs start rolling out the PS3 in 12-18 months, the PS3 should do fine. But in the meantime, Microsoft and Nintendo aren't just going to sit around and do nothing.

Re:Maybe (1)

HappySqurriel (1010623) | more than 7 years ago | (#17138092)

Well, if you consider that the combined sales of the PS2 and PSP do not surpass 333,000 units per month (on average) in Japan it may be more difficult than you think; their combined total so far this year has been 3,069,000 making for an average of 279,000 ( http://www.vgcharts.org/japyearly.php [vgcharts.org] ). Also consider that the PS2 (the most successful console in Japaneese history ) has sold 22 Million Consoles since it was released on March 2000 (meaning that it has been out for 5 years 8 months, or 68 months) only averaged 323,000 units per month.

It will be a very long time before the PS3 outsells the XBox 360 if it ever does...

Re:Maybe (1)

Maxwell (13985) | more than 7 years ago | (#17140714)

Uh, yeah becasue no one in America or Europe bought a PS/2. Ever. Son'y can only use the Japanes market for the PS/3. You used the Japan only sales. Actual sales were triple that worldwide, over 1 million/month.

It will not take long for the PS/3 to outsell the xbox360 at that rate!

Note: I don't think 1M ps/3 per month is realistic in the next few years, but they can certainly catch up.

JON

Re:Maybe (1)

HappySqurriel (1010623) | more than 7 years ago | (#17145946)

My point was that if the PS3 is going to catch up they will have to be selling more systems in all regions and that they couldn't count on Japan to recover their lead on their own.

Personally (going back to my original point) I think that it will be remarkably difficult for the PS3 to become the worldwide leader because they will have to sell about 333,000 units per month more than the XBox 360; and I think it will be impossible for the PS3 to outsell the XBox 360 in North America/Europe because most of those 333,000 units per month would have to come in these regions and the XBox 360 isn't selling that poorly in either region. The fact is that (as a guess until may) the PS3 can't even produce as many units as the XBox 360 is selling so they are going to continue to lose ground; even when the supply issues are eliminated the XBox 360 will likely get an unanswered price drop that will give it a $200 advantage. The only way any system is going to pass the XBox 360 in sales in North America is if the system has DS lite level sales which I think is impossible for a system that is over $200.

Hey (4, Funny)

antifoidulus (807088) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131586)

a conservative estimate assuming that PS3 supply levels remained consistent throughout the month leading up to Christmas."

That's of course not the case, as PS3 supplies have been low.


I dunno, having none all the time is pretty damn consistent :P

Not without a price drop (1)

drinkypoo (153816) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131604)

I think most people rabid for a 360 already have one. This season is the season of the Wii and PS3, depending on how many units of each are actually supplied to the market. On the other hand, drop the price a hundred bucks and I might go out and buy one myself. Probably not though - I want a Wii :D

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

notanatheist (581086) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131952)

And get a Wii you should. As an owner I can tell you it is a lot of fun if you seek a different style of gameplay that sitting on your a55 all the time. I only have Rayman Raving Rabbits and Wii Sports right now but both have been and still are very fun. Finally killed my first set of batteries in a Wii-mote too. Time to break out the rechargeables.

Re:Not without a price drop (2, Interesting)

MooseMuffin (799896) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132112)

Myself and 3 friends have all bought 360s in the last 2 months. Just sayin'

Re:Not without a price drop (2, Interesting)

PygmySurfer (442860) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132506)

Same here, and I've heard of a few other people that recently picked one up through friends and co-workers. Hopefully now that the PS3 is out, people will see how overpriced it really is, and take a look at the alternatives.

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

tzhuge (1031302) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132460)

While looking for a Wii, I overheard some Best Buy employees saying that they were selling a lot of Xbox360s simply because parents looking for a console for their kids can't get their hands on anything else. I don't know that people are rabid for the 360 but it is pretty good product and it seems a significant group of consumers are simply looking for any next-gen console rather than a specific one.

Personally, I bought a Xbox360 last couple of months and I'm getting a Wii (hopefully this week).

Re:Not without a price drop (3, Interesting)

Fozzyuw (950608) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132658)

While looking for a Wii, I overheard some Best Buy employees saying that they were selling a lot of Xbox360s simply because parents looking for a console for their kids can't get their hands on anything else.

Add my co-worker to this list. She was talking about getting her kids a new system, during all the PS3 launch frenzy, and then I informed her of the differences and the choices. She was going to get a Wii, but could not find any and has no patience or care to stand in line and fight for one. She also found out her kids own an Xbox, so she's getting them a 360 instead, which I said would be a good choice if they already own the Xbox.

The worst thing Sony could have done is kill their holiday sales by not having enough units. Unfortunately, this happened and Sony's going to get stung by it. Once the holiday is over, that $600 price tag will be for those who really want one. Everyone else will be pinching pennies after feeling like they just spent a lot over the last couple months. Of course, there's always next year! =)

Cheers,
Fozzy

Re:Not without a price drop (3, Funny)

Broken scope (973885) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132840)

Wait... she found out her kids a an xbox. Damn, that pretty hard to hide one of those. I mean they stick out like a sore thumb and its hard to move them around..

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

AcidLacedPenguiN (835552) | more than 7 years ago | (#17133246)

lol maybe she thought her husband just changed the flooring in their TV room to black and green plastic. . .

I own a couple xboxes so I'm allowed to make the joke.

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

Broken scope (973885) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134902)

So do I.

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

AcidLacedPenguiN (835552) | more than 7 years ago | (#17144962)

actually I was more just saying that because I figured some rabid fanboy would have come back at me with his top 10 reasons why the xbox isn't as big as I was implying. I meant no offense.

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

Broken scope (973885) | more than 7 years ago | (#17145348)

He would just be lying to himself though... That would have been kinda fun.

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

Fozzyuw (950608) | more than 7 years ago | (#17136166)

Wait... she found out her kids a an xbox. Damn, that pretty hard to hide one of those. I mean they stick out like a sore thumb and its hard to move them around..

From what I hear, it's in another room she never goes. Maybe some kind of 1970's main frame computer like room. =P

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

abaddononion (1004472) | more than 7 years ago | (#17135446)

The worst thing Sony could have done is kill their holiday sales by not having enough units.
This is true, and if you study economics, is actually an observable market phenomenon. Sony pulled this exact same stunt with the PS2, and apologized profusely, and swore that it wouldnt happen. Two years ago, they were talking about tremendous numbers of PS3s for the launch. ANd yet, here we are. Nearly Christmas, and no one can give Sony 700 bucks for a PS3 even if they wanted to. You're mostly likely right. Sony probably is going to get bit in that ass for this one. They didnt on the PS2, but the XBox and Gamecube libraries were both pretty consistently weak (Halo is NOT an entire library. Im sorry) compared to the PS2's. And so far the PS3's library hasnt justified its existence, and Sony has been losing exclusivity deals left and right. Personally, I dont like any of the new consoles this generation. To me the 360 is just the new Sega system, and if there had been a normal new generation launch, it would already be behind in technology. The PS3 is a marketing disaster, and the price tag is completely unacceptable. And the Wii... I think it's a gimmicky system that's going to burn out in two years due to being underpower. People say graphics dont matter, and I agree that they're not the only thing that matters, but they DO matter. How many people here played the new Valkyrie Profile game launched on PS1? How many of you even heard of it? Aside from graphics, it was supposed to be awesome. Did anyone care? No. Maybe this will lead to promising things in the future. All of the new consoles have SOME great ideas and features. Maybe next generation, we'll get some awesome new consoles, with reasonable price tags. In the meantime, Im going to buy a PS2, Xbox, and Gamecube, and go to market.

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

elrous0 (869638) | more than 7 years ago | (#17136580)

To me the 360 is just the new Sega system

NOTHING is new anymore. Why, a fax machine is nothing more than a waffle iron with a phone attached!

-Eric

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

twosmokes (704364) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132498)

I wouldn't be so sure. Fans of a company buy consoles at release, everyone else waits until there are games for it that are desired. Gears of War is going to sell a lot of 360s. I know it (and a few other games) have sold me and a few coworkers on the system.

Re:Not without a price drop (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17132794)

The general verdict on Gears seems to be that it's an absolutely awesome game, but one that you won't come back to after the first week. Very short campaign and (for Live Gold only) limited versus multiplayer although it does have co-op for the campaign.

So, it doesn't really seem like a system-seller to me, at least to people who follow gaming news on the net. $350+ for a toy you'll get tired of by new year isn't a great deal. Although, naturally, if PGR3, GRAW etc excite you too then maybe Gears will push you over the edge.

Re:Not without a price drop (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17135774)

The general verdict on Gears seems to be that it's an absolutely awesome game, but one that you won't come back to after the first week.

That verdict is only coming from the people who finished it and won't go back... Everyone else who has actually played it hasn't taken time away to tell you anything. They are busy wearing out their XBox 360 controllers playing the game.

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

antime (739998) | more than 7 years ago | (#17133662)

I'm one of those holding out for a price drop. However, with the PS3's current price Microsoft have no need to start a price war and if the reports on the hardware's profitablity are true the Xbox unit is probably under some pressure to recoup at least some of the money spent so far.

The other thing I'm waiting for is the 65 nm versions of the chips rumoured to be coming next year. The reduced manufacturing costs may actually allow Microsoft to lower the prices while still maintaining a profit, and the reduced power consumption would hopefully lead to a more quiet cooling solution.

Re:Not without a price drop (1)

Skuld-Chan (302449) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134120)

The other day I was at Fred Meyers and some lady wanted a PS3, nope there out. Then she wanted a Wii - nope there out. Oh but whats this Xbox 360 thing - they've got like 15 of those? Yeah she ended up with one and a couple games. This really did happen.

I suspect similar scenarios are being played out all over the country.

Gears and R6 (1)

FreeKill (1020271) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131700)

Guaranteed Gears of War and Rainbow Six 3 have increased console sales since their respective releases. I actually think the PS3 limited quantities helped Microsoft. Many of the people I saw who went to try and buy a Wii/PS3, and couldn't get one, walked away with a Gears of War XBox 360 Bundle instead, because there were plenty.

Re:Gears and R6 (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17132288)

I personally got the 360 so I could play Splinter Cell Double Agent and was promptly dissapointed. I have hear the version for standard Xbox is better and has co-op split screen multiplayer which the 360 version does not have. Great game that gets no love none the less.

Re:Gears and R6 (1)

valathax (916966) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132920)

UBI has been pumping out the games faster than they ever have before, as a result the game quality is lower. The graphics on splinter cell series use to be the best available, but now they look average.

GRAW is a great game with excellent co-op modes. I have heard good and bad things about Rainbow 6, from what I understand the co-op modes are very good but the multiplayer and single player modes are not excellent. I have played the demo and the game is okay, but not outstanding.

Gears of War is my personal favorite, the multiplayer is outstanding.

Wait a minute... (1)

tulmad (25666) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131704)

So wait, they released their console a year before the other two and they're claiming they'll be the first to sell 10M of them? Or am I just reading that wrong?

Re:Wait a minute... (1)

HappySqurriel (1010623) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131988)

It doesn't really matter how you get to be the leading console as long as you're leading (See PS2) ... Technological advantage is meaningless when a developer is trying to make a buisness case to te publisher to create an exclusive game for your platform; all that matters is how large of a userbase the system has, and how many potential sales you will lose by not developing it for another system.

Nextgenwars.com (3, Informative)

Daemonstar (84116) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131744)

Nexgenwars.com has a site [nexgenwars.com] that shows the (supposed) current running sales of each console.

  • Xbox360: 8,058,282
  • PS3: 383,525
  • Wii: 1,203,618
Of course, they don't state how or where they get their information. :P

Re:Nextgenwars.com (1)

aricept (810752) | more than 7 years ago | (#17133292)

The owner does, in their forums. [nexgenwars.com]

Yeah, I buy that..... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17134014)

Nextgenwars.com: I pull it out of my ass.

Ok, so they really didn't say that, but with the vague way they go about saying how they do things(not including sources of their info, the use of estimates and how they do them, not giving us a real method others can track/verify, etc)...

Loved how you had to single their post out, but I guess they wouldn't look to creditable if you showed us the whole thread. They don't even bother to have it out in the open or put it in a announcement forum... Heck that post isn't even a sticky, and you have to dig it up to find it! Most reputable sites publish such stuff in an about page....

Useless site, but good for trolling and fanboy flamewars.

Re:Nextgenwars.com (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17134478)

For posterity.


James
Owner

It basically just takes time and research to estimate the numbers as closely as possible.

What I have done is gotten charts of monthly sales for the past few years, and figured out certain trends. Then I have gotten past sales data and estimated the pace at which the consoles will sell. After I have the estimate and the counter running, I just watch out for anny official announcements, and adjust anything accordingly.

The site has been up since early July, and I haven't had to adjust the sales for the Xbox 360 since then. So far my estimation method has been pretty much right on. Now for the new consoles it is a little harder since there is no previous sales data to go off of. What I do for these is research how many they are expecting to have on launch and by the end of the year. For the launch counter I get it to around the number expected, and then I slow it down to pace it so that it will reach a good estimate for the end of the year, and as usual I will adjust anything if any official word comes in.

Been hearing rumours for a week or two about... (3, Informative)

Assmasher (456699) | more than 7 years ago | (#17131936)

...shortages of Cell processors because IBM's server (which utilize the chip) are selling like hotcakes...

Re:Been hearing rumours for a week or two about... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17132992)

Question: What kind of Cell do these servers use?

It's an honest question; the Cell is supposed to have about 8 sub-processing units. The PS3 makes use of 7, allowing for 1 of the 8 to have a manufacturing fault. Are the processors used in the servers defined as having 6, 5, or 4 SPU's that are usable? If so, then they wouldn't cannibalize from the PS3; the chips used wouldn't be suitible for the PS3. If they allow 7 or 8, then that MIGHT be a problem. Granted, the 8's are more rare to manufacture due to the strong presence of defects, so they probably are used in higher-end products, and probably not in the PS3.

Re:Been hearing rumours for a week or two about... (1)

Chris Burke (6130) | more than 7 years ago | (#17133202)

IBM isn't in the habit of having redundancy for manufacturing purposes. Using 7 of 8 SPUs is a trick Sony is using to keep their own costs down by skimming the parts IBM won't use, in an effort to make a high-end chip like Cell affordable for a home game system. In a high-end server part, there's no point in using fewer than 8 SPUs because the high margins make the lower yields of 8-working-SPU units acceptable. If IBM was going to define their server as only having 4 SPUs, it'd be because they were actually 8 functional SPUs but IBM was making them redundant, as in having two perform the exact same calculations then comparing the result.

I don't actually know, but I'd be shocked if IBM was using fewer SPUs than the PS3, simply due to the margins IBM gets.

Re:Been hearing rumours for a week or two about... (1)

Orange Crush (934731) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134866)

This is slightly off topic . . . but I just had a diabolical thought . . . If IBM is selling their cell servers like hotcakes, what's to stop clever university researches looking to pinch some pennies from building clusters out of PS3s once they're available in large supply? Considering PS3 is sold at a loss, it'd be such a shame if that happened since those researches probably won't be buying many games or accessories to make up the difference . . .

Re:Been hearing rumours for a week or two about... (1)

Kirin Fenrir (1001780) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134050)

Incorrect.

The PS3 delays are not because of the Cell, but because of the diode used in the Blu-Ray laser. IBM has nothing to do with the optical drive.

I think Xbox sales will go up (1)

pentapenguin (904715) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132004)

I think that they will make their projections as well. Considering how rare and expensive PS3s are and the Wii is just unavailable, the 360 is the only thing to turn to for your next-gen fix. Add to that some great discounts lately (Amazon, Micro Center's $100 rebate, Overstock, etc.) the Xbox is becoming a bigger bargain. Take me for instance, I wasn't planning to get a 360, but with Micro Center's great rebate offer, I couldn't miss it!

Re:I think Xbox sales will go up (1)

Aladrin (926209) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132174)

The Wii is getting to be more plentiful, though. I've actually managed to buy 2. (1 for my nephews for Christmas.) Stores are getting regular shipments, some of them a couple times a week or more. (Toys R Us, where I got mine, seems to be getting them 2 or 3 times a week.) You still have to be a little lucky to get 1, but nothing like launch. It's predicted that they'll be sitting on shelves, waiting for buyers, by Christmas. I believe that prediction.

Not that I'm against the 360. I've had a ton of fun with mine since I bought it a few months back.

No plans to buy a PS3, though.

Re:I think Xbox sales will go up (1)

MooseMuffin (799896) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132230)

My girlfriend tried to pick up a Wii this morning when WalMart opened. She figured she'd get there early but saw a line of 15+ at 5:30am and went back home. They're definitely still a pain in the ass to get.

Re:I think Xbox sales will go up (1)

simp7264 (465544) | more than 7 years ago | (#17133816)

My wife got one today the same way, showed up at 5:00am and line was only 7 strong. Our store in the middle of nowhere got 23 in, maybe she should have stuck it out they probably had more than 15+ units for sale.

Walmart has had those units in for days (I think 10 here) they just had to wait to sell them since they advertised in their circular ad (effective today) that they have some.

Re:I think Xbox sales will go up (1)

dank zappingly (975064) | more than 7 years ago | (#17142048)

The new 360 update bricked a ton of consoles, maybe that is part of their strategy.

Hmm? (1)

MeanderingMind (884641) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132192)

10 million consoles first? I thought their major claim was that they'd reach 10 million consoles by the end of the year. The article summary seems to have the importance of each backwards. That said, they've got less than a month left. It will be interesting to see how close they come.

That said, Nintendo also has a ways to go before they reach their 4 million projection. They haven't launched everywhere yet, but still have just shy of 3 million to go before they hit their mark.

In fact, it's hard to say if any of the three will actually make it. Maybe it's because this is the first console generation that I haven't declined into a rabid fanboy, maybe it's because I'm a sucker for mathematical analysis, or maybe it's just because I'm highly excitable, but I'm watching all this with great interest.

I can't wait for when 3 years from now we have a good idea how it all turns out (and also have that many more juicy games, mmm).

RTFA (1)

Milktoast (3812) | more than 7 years ago | (#17133426)

If you'd would read the article you'd see they are sticking with the 10 million by 2006 goal.

Re:RTFA (1)

MeanderingMind (884641) | more than 7 years ago | (#17136314)

It was, I was just confused as the summary on slashdot emphasized reaching 10 million first as opposed to 10 million before next year.

Re:Hmm? (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17138708)

"I thought their major claim was that they'd reach 10 million consoles by the end of the year."

They first claimed 10 million sold before a single PS3 hits the shelves. They then changed it to 10 million by the end of 2006. They then changed once more to 10 million shipped by the end of 2006, i.e. including units in retailer inventory.

They may actually make that one, but I wouldn't be particulary surprised to hear them backpedal again to the end of fiscal 2006, which is March...

The whole issue is pointless, I only pay attention for the purpose of baiting fanboys... watch:

360 IS THE NEXT DREAMCAST! LOL!

No brainer (1)

ObiWanStevobi (1030352) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132280)

MS will sell 10M 360's before Sony will produce 10M PS3s. The 360 already has some decent games at $29 and $39, as well as big exclusives. My guess is that, at least in the near future, games are going to drive up sales of the 360. However, the Wii will outsell all of them. IMO, the Wii will outsell them without taking much of their marketshare. It's appeal is more for people who wouldn't buy the 360 or PS3, or for people who will by it as well as their high-end console of choice.

Observations... (1)

MaWeiTao (908546) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132454)

Not that my own observations count for much but I've actually noticed a number of people inquiring about or purchasing the Xbox360 in various stores. A few stores have had very prominent displays for the Xbox with the Wii and PS3 off to the side somewhere. Of course it doesn't help that neither of those consoles is currently available.

I did see one woman asking about the Wii and she didn't seem to be pleased at all over the prospect of having to wait in line to get one and this was for a December 6th shipment. She was even willing to pay extra to secure a unit. I think she was determined to get one not because it was the Wii but because she wasn't looking forward to the prospect of having whining kids at Christmas. If it were me I'd just get them socks and use this as a life lesson, "we dont always get what we want".

Anyway, I suspect anyone who might have wanted a PS3 will end up getting the Xbox360. And everyone else will likely get a Wii.

Re:Observations... (1)

Fozzyuw (950608) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132848)

A few stores have had very prominent displays for the Xbox with the Wii and PS3 off to the side somewhere.

I've sort of noticed this. At Wal-Mart, I see a big PS3 display in front, a normal 360 displaly in their case, and the Wii was just a disaster. If I was Nintendo, I'd be a little unhappy with how their using shelf space. Heck, a new SuperCenter (less than 3 weeks open) only made shelf space for the controllers a few days ago. Yesterday, I looked at the games, and the Wii games where finally moved from being stuffed at the very bottom all packed together like my DVD shelf, to insertered between GameCube and DS games. Oddest thing as I'm looking at games, I'll see 4 Wii games, a row of DS games, then a row of GameCube games with a Wii game stuck inbetween, etc. Just a mess. Still, all the people I see are teenagers looking for the Nunchuck controller and a few gamers stopping to marvel at the shiney PS3 display and HDTV demo.

Cheers,
Fozzy

Re:Observations... (1)

aricept (810752) | more than 7 years ago | (#17133384)

Different story at my local WM. They opened the controller space for Wii and PS3 two weeks before launch, opened about 10 hangers, had the UPC codes already on them. Two were for PS3 controllers. The rest were for Wii controllers. Had Wii games available before launch; have yet to see a PS3 game in stock.

Re:Observations... (1)

MaWeiTao (908546) | more than 7 years ago | (#17135452)

I've sort of noticed this. At Wal-Mart, I see a big PS3 display in front, a normal 360 displaly in their case, and the Wii was just a disaster.


I have to agree. It doesn't help that the Wii identity is particular weak so that it fades in the background in the midst of all the chaos and color in stores. I think wherever designed the identity, Nintendo includes, were going for the Apple look. However, they failed to realize that the Wii is competing in a different space than Apple and as such needs to stand out a bit more. I'm not saying they should do anything X-TREME, but at least introduce a bit of color. Maybe the Wii mark a nice vibrant color instead of the faded grey it is now.

Holiday Sales (1)

ObiWanStevobi (1030352) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132528)

This will be the first holiday shopping season where Xbox 360s will be readily available. There were some core systems on shelves last year, but even those ran short. If the 8M figure above is correct, I think hitting 10M this year may be possible. This holiday season, you will not find a PS3 on the shelf and Wiis will be pretty rare. MS will be the big winner this month simply because there are no other choices and very gift givers are going to wait till Feb-March to give their present.

PS3 and Wii would sell out all the consoles they have produced so far any time of year. They are missing out on another year of holiday sales, I think this has to benefit MS.

Re:Holiday Sales (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17155180)

Funny thing is, I walk into stores looking for Wii, and they try to sell me a PS3 instead. I've said 'no thanks' to the consolation prize known as PS3 too many times. I would be surprised to see a Wii sitting on the shelf before the end of the year. And I wouldn't be surprised to see the PS3 demand get filled before they even hit 2 million shipped.

10 million don't mean squat (2, Interesting)

vonPoonBurGer (680105) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132562)

If you look at the numbers for the previous generation, you'll quickly realize that 10 million is a piddling number:

* Nintendo GameCube: 21.20 Million as of September 30, 2006 (Japan: 4.02, The Americas: 12.44, Other: 4.75)
* PlayStation 2: 111.25 Million shipped as of September 30, 2006 (Japan: 23.99, USA: 44.86, Europe: 42.40)
* Sega Dreamcast: 10.6 Million as of December 2004 (Japan: 2.30, Other: 8.30)
* Xbox: more than 24 Million as of May 10, 2006

See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Console_wars#World_wi de_sales_figures_5 [wikipedia.org] for sources. Out of the more than 160 million previous gen systems sold, fully 2/3rds were PS2s. The Dreamcast sold 10 million for crying out loud, and look where they ended up. The first console to break the 50 million mark is probably going to be the dominant system, and we're a long way off from that. MS has a head start, but it's still anyone's game.

Re:10 million don't mean squat (2, Insightful)

HappySqurriel (1010623) | more than 7 years ago | (#17133104)

I don't know what the number is, but once you get a lead of a certain size you can essentially run away with the generation; after your userbase lead is large enough you will get all cross platform development and you're likely to get most of the exclusive content as well.

The PS2 had a 80 Million unit lead because they started off getting a 10 Million unit lead ...

Re:10 million don't mean squat (2, Informative)

AArmadillo (660847) | more than 7 years ago | (#17133508)

Ten million is considered important because analysts have said that the first system to ten million sales will be the top next generation console. This is based on there being a certain point of no return where a console simply has so much momentum that nearly every third party developer makes games for it. Analysts point to the PS2 becoming dominant right after it sold 8 million consoles to justify this. Of course, analysts are often wrong, but fifty million is way too high for the point of no return. Considering no non-first place console has ever sold more than fifty million consoles, you are only saying 'whoever is the dominant console will be the dominant console'. There is a point before that, just like in a race, where one can say 'wow, that one is so far ahead and has so much momentum that the only way they will lose is if something goes horribly wrong.' Whether that is ten million or thirty million is anyone's guess but fifty million is the finish line.

Re:10 million don't mean squat (1)

The-Bus (138060) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134208)

This is correct.

If MS can reach 10 million first, they also need to be the first to reach 20 million and the first to reach 40 million. The figures for the PS2, NGC, and Xbox are so lopsided that it's almost unfair. The PS2 sold twice as much as its three other competitors combined.

I don't think Nintendo can convince the majority of previous PS2 owners to go with the Wii instead of the PS3. Not only does that not make sense, it's being publicly denied as Nintendo's strategy. High-def surround-sound ultra-next-gen gaming is being fought by the PS3 and the 360. Microsoft needs to take market share, and do it fast. They've yet to sell more than 500,000 on any month besides their launch (and possibly) this month that just passed. They should be selling AT LEAST 500,000 consoles and are simply not. If they don't pick up the pace, they might be the first to 10 million but they'll lag after that.

Hopefully, the Wii will do better than the Gamecube.

Re:10 million don't mean squat (1)

Babbster (107076) | more than 7 years ago | (#17135212)

They've yet to sell more than 500,000 on any month besides their launch (and possibly) this month that just passed. They should be selling AT LEAST 500,000 consoles and are simply not. If they don't pick up the pace, they might be the first to 10 million but they'll lag after that.

Why? Because the PS2 sold more and sooner? Keep in mind that a) the PS2 was $100 cheaper than what people consider the "true" 360 model (even averaging the two versions, the PS2 was $50 cheaper) and b) the PS2 had a rabid following in Japan (and a nearly 8-month head start there).

No, I don't think total sales are concern #1 here. Concern #1 is how far ahead of the PS3 the 360 can get and stay. Microsoft can probably do a $50-100 price drop next spring (and probably will, for the sake of tradition if nothing else) while Sony is already getting killed in terms of PS3 profitability. A $50 price cut would even put the 360 on equal price footing with the Wii. If they add the 20GB hard drive to the "core" and a bigger hard drive to the "premium" (this is the direction I believe MS will go in an effort to more fully match up with PS3 specs and take away a Sony bragging point), the price difference between the HD consoles will look even bigger.

In other words, I think it's possible for MS to push demand up in the next year with both a price drop and the release of even more big titles (Halo 3 looms large still, even if I don't care that much myself).

10 mil AFTER ONE YEAR (1)

xswl0931 (562013) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134352)

You're comparing the 10 mil number to the lifetime shipped of the other consoles while the 360 has only been out 1 year. If you look at PS2 which has the most total shipped (note it doesn't say sold), then look at where the data came from, the PS2 only sold 10 mil after its first year.

How many of these things actuall work? (1)

maynard (3337) | more than 7 years ago | (#17132874)

I just bought a 360 from a local store last Sunday, along with Gears of War and Dead Rising. I took it home, set it atop a rear projection HDTV, and connected the various component, power, and network cables. There was plenty of room in the rear for fan outflow, and nothing obstructing the unit on the top or sides. Then I created an Xbox Live account and it downloaded a firmware update. I figured I was ready to play.

First I stuck in Dead Rising. Played single-user for about thirty minutes or so until the screen froze dead mid-action. I reset the 360. Played again until about twenty minutes later the system froze again. So I thought that perhaps it was a bad game disc, so I put in Gears of War: it didn't last long enough to make it through the introductory cut-scenes. I reset the system again and got to play less than five minutes before the system froze again.

At this point I decided that I must have bought a defective unit. A quick google search of "360 freeze" listed a ridiculous amount of hits. I note that the terms of the MS warranty are 90 days, after which customers must pay a $139.00 repair fee plus shipping. I guess I was lucky enough to have bought a unit DOA rather than dead three months out. I know I could exchange and buy an extended warranty, but I fear a never ending revolving door of hardware failures followed by customer service and shipping hassles. Forget it.

I've decided to return the system and wait out another hardware revision. These things are too damn temperamental and Microsoft clearly is not willing to back up their hardware with a reasonable warranty. The games look great, but what's the point if I can't play them?

*sigh*

Microsoft is their own worst enemy.

Re:How many of these things actuall work? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17133848)

Wow, is this the first DOA item you've bought? Swap it man, it's not overheating, the 360 REALLY doesn't overheat that easily, some games however, do crash on occasion, but not that often. As with anything MS, people go ballistic when they have problems. Go read some Apple support forums, you'll find an abbundance of horrifying problems, but they just have a better rep.

My 360 has locked probably 3-4 times (mostly in PGR3) through HEAVY use (it's on probably 8 hours a day) since February. I'm DAMN sure my NES, SNES, whatever all locked up that many times. I got the ring of death once when I dropped it, left it off for a minute and it came back. It's been to Colorado and back in the trunk of a car, been lugged on a motorcycle and to every one of my friends house and it's still truckin.

The thee month warranty is a shame, but it was also what every last gen console had. The Wii or PS3 may be better, I don't know.

Re:How many of these things actuall work? (2, Informative)

SScorpio (595836) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134906)

Nintendo's standard warranty is one year. With the Wii if you register it you also be an additional 90 days so you are covered for 15 months.

Re:How many of these things actuall work? (1)

tilandal (1004811) | more than 7 years ago | (#17135308)

If any company today stands behind its products its Nintendo. Their warranty and RMA practices have been the best I Have ever seen.

Re:How many of these things actuall work? (1)

brywalker (738506) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134026)

Actually, if you do a bit of searching, the reason your system bailed was because of the update you did on Live. It has destroyed many systems, and MS will not acknowledge that it is the cause. MANY people had no problems until the "1080p fix" update. It has caused lockups and in worse cases bricked systems. Don't be afraid to get another. I have had one since launch and it's all good. Just don't update it. Stay off of Live for a bit until they recall the update. Microsoft is INDEED their own worse enemy.

Re:How many of these things actuall work? (1)

maynard (3337) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134658)

If that's true then I'm even further convinced to dump the thing. One of the principal reasons I bought it was for Xbox Live. If MS is bricking systems with their updates, and then charging people to fix their mistakes, why in hell would I want to expose myself to that kind of hassle?

I don't know what caused the problem. I just know that I bought a worthless piece of junk and I thank God I can still return it for my money back.

Re:How many of these things actuall work? (1)

radish (98371) | more than 7 years ago | (#17135906)

You should also be aware that, as always, the internet blows problems way out of proportion. If we believed everything we read there would be no MacBooks left without brown stains all over them, 50% of Wii owners would be buying a new TV due to Wiimote impact and no-one would be able to use 720p on their PS3. Of course all of these are true, but isolated problems, and the 360 ones are likely the same. Of course I don't know for sure, because I can only go off a sample size of 4, but none of those 4 have had any problems and they're all kept 100% up to date with patches.

Re:How many of these things actuall work? (1)

Asmor (775910) | more than 7 years ago | (#17135412)

I got a launch 360 (for the record, I didn't specifically want it; my birthday's November 27th, and my dad's just that cool even though I told him I was waiting for a wii).

It died a few months later, maybe within 90 days. Not sure. I sent it back, they replaced it no hassle, even sent me a box to send it in. They ended up sending me a "new" one (by which I mean different from the one I sent them, it was likely refurbished).

Anyways, that one died on me about a month or two ago (almost a year since original purchase) and they replaced it fine (there were some unrelated tech support hassles, with their systems being down so it took me 2 weeks to actually get a repair ticket...), but I had to pay for shipping. Was about $25 at the post office, including $300 worth of insurance.

Overall, I think the 360 is relatively faulty, but MS also seems to be pretty good about replacing them.

Only 6 million XBox 360s sold? (1)

MotorMachineMercenar (124135) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134168)

Only 6 million XBox 360s sold by end of September? Can that be right? Just a few stories up Nintendo claims to have sold 6 million Wiis in the few weeks it has been out, while XBox 360 was released a year ago. I don't know much about console sales and history of releases, but doesn't that mean XBox 360 is a total non-issue?

Re:Only 6 million XBox 360s sold? (2, Insightful)

MooseMuffin (799896) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134440)

Read that story again. Nintendo believes it will have 6 million sold by the end of their fiscal year on March 31.

Re:Only 6 million XBox 360s sold? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17134612)

"Nintendo claims to have sold 6 million Wiis in the few weeks it has been ou"

eh, no.

"By the end of its fiscal year on March 31, 2007, Nintendo now believes it will have sold 6 million Wiis"

Still... (1)

zeromusmog (260817) | more than 7 years ago | (#17134764)

The Wii is selling like hotcakes and the lines to buy them are getting longer and forming earlier when whiff of a shipment comes in.

Once there's enough to satisfy the people willing to wait in line forever, it will sell extremely well "off the shelf", I'm sure.

I think Microsoft will reap the rewards of having plenty of stock, sure, but it really seems like the Wii will hit 10m units as soon as they can roll that many off the assembly lines. The 360 isn't that fortunate.

Out for a year (1)

LuciferosX (987569) | more than 7 years ago | (#17135204)

The 360 has been out for a year, so the claim to 10mil first really does not count. Give the others a year to reach 10 million and then see who reached the amount the fastest to be fair.

"selling 360s like hotcakes"......!? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17139440)

"Blue Dragon is out in Japan, and selling 360s like hotcakes."

Hey Zonk, can you provide a source for that? None TFAs say anything about that, whether speaking about 360's relative performance against the competition in Japan or by any standalone metric.
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