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2007 Java Predictions

kdawson posted more than 7 years ago | from the steaming-mug-of-prognostication dept.

Java 284

jg21 writes "Java Developer's Journal has published the results of its end-of-year poll of various Internet technology players, from its own internal editors to industry high-ups like the founder of Apress, Gary Cornell, and including too the thoughts of professor Tony Wasserman of Carnegie Mellon West. Participants were asked to foretell what they saw happening in 2007. Among the predictions — Cornell: 'The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#'; Wasserman: 'The use of the GPL 2 for open-sourcing Java will inhibit the completion and acceptance of the GPL 3 proposal'; and Rails creator David Heinemeier Hansson: 'The stigma of being a Web programmer still using Windows will increase.'"

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284 comments

I predict (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276582)

I predict Java will still require 2 gigs of RAM and a Quad-Core CPU just to reach parity with the simplest command line program.

Re:I predict (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276728)

If Java has that kinds of HW requirements then what HW does TiVo have inside? People are talking about buying a PS3 just to get a Cell processor. Forget PS3 I'm getting a TiVo.

Java's dead! (4, Insightful)

Rik Sweeney (471717) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276586)

I read this on a messageboard years ago, it still makes me laugh to this day:

No one uses Java anymore, it's all flash these days.

Ever used Eclipse? (1, Redundant)

mustafap (452510) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276666)

Java dead? Tell developers who use Eclipse that.

Re:Ever used Eclipse? (4, Insightful)

drerwk (695572) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276798)

Didn't have you coffee yet this morning?
The parent makes a living programming J2EE. He might even use Eclipse.
I think for many folks Java is used to write software that does not see the front of a web page.
In fact I have not used Java on the client side since about '98. But I write far more Java now than I did back then. I hope that the work Ethan Nicholas [java.net] is doing to will help, but frankly Flash works fine for many web pages. And as long as I don't have to write the Flash code I'm fine with that. Is it still programming via dialog box? Can I use svn with my Flash code these days? I also hear AJAX is popular and effective for client side work. Anyway, Java is not likely to die anytime soon.

Re:Ever used Eclipse? (1)

iamdrscience (541136) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276870)

And as long as I don't have to write the Flash code I'm fine with that. Is it still programming via dialog box? Can I use svn with my Flash code these days?
Actually programming in Flash (the program) is no longer a pain worse than death but still no fun, however, programming flash applications with Flex is beautiful, especially with all the features added in Flex 2. Honestly, I love Flex to death and I think you'll see a lot more people using it in coming years.

Re:Ever used Eclipse? (2, Insightful)

Directrix1 (157787) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277060)

I am personally really excited about Java becoming free. I quit using it a few years ago because of Stallman's The Java Trap (that and the dark side of easy unmaintainable web development in PHP drew me in... stupid me). I'm currently reevaluating Java right now and Python is really shaping up for the server side too. But back to the point, people forget that there is a MASSIVE collection of libraries out there for Java. And I mean massive. Check apache.org just for a little taste.

Re:Ever used Eclipse? (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277352)

It's ironic, though: the Java Trap is now reversed. Previously you would find your open source code being trapped by a closed license. Now you can find your open source code trapped by an open source license.

You mention Apache, so just remember this: The Apache license (all versions) are incompatible with the GPL 2. So if you decide to use the GPL 2 version of Java (which includes the class libraries) you can't legally use the various Apache Java projects.

There's also the fun and unanswered question of whether or not using the GPL 2 javac will taint your binaries with GPL 2 code, and if using JAR will taint your JARs with GPL 2 licensed data. Using the GPL 2 tools very well might taint your redistributables, forcing you to use the GPL 2.

Re:Ever used Eclipse? (5, Informative)

The PS3 Will Fail (998952) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277502)

'Now you can find your open source code trapped by an open source license.'
Java will still be available under the Sun license; releasing it under the GPL is just another option - but not the only way to license it. You're spreading nonsense.

Re:Ever used Eclipse? (1)

mongus (131392) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277898)

While you're checking out Java on the server make sure to take a look at Stripes [mc4j.org] . It is a great web framework that makes life soooo much easier.

Re:Java's dead! (1)

VGfort (963346) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277270)

Well they were right in one respect, people don't use Applets very often anymore. JavaScript and Flash took over all the small useful stuff. Applets are mostly games and chat rooms. Whether or not JSP will end up being used more often for websites is anyones guess, but I think it would be several years before we can really tell. I'm not into Application Development, so I wont talk about that aspect of Java. :p

Re:Java's dead! (0, Flamebait)

banerjek (1040522) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277272)

No one uses Java anymore, it's all flash these days.
For individual web sites and popular software, maybe. However, there are plenty of specialized applications that have taken many years to develop that are written in Java.

I've never been a fan of the language. Performance is terrible, and moving an app from one VM to another often causes serious problems. The cross platform claims have consistently been exaggerated.

There is too much invested already in it just to disappear, and I certainly can't see everything just going to Flash, though that definitely has many applications. Predictions of a long slow decline are spot on.

A decline and death are not the same thing. I keep hearing C is dead. Losing popularity, sure, but it will be around for a very long time.

Re:Java's dead! (1)

Orange Crush (934731) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277634)

I keep hearing C is dead. Losing popularity, sure, but it will be around for a very long time.

Are there any other languages that could actually replace C? Sure, there are plenty of high level languages that are better for most application development, but is there anything (practical) you can build an operating system out of, short of machine or assembly? (honest question, I really have no idea)

Re:Java's dead! (2, Interesting)

samkass (174571) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277666)

Performance is terrible, and moving an app from one VM to another often causes serious problems.
Uh, what year did you last try Java? Java performance is pretty much on par with any other language these days. Sometimes it beats traditional languages, sometimes it's a little slower. The dynamic compilation causes minor slowdowns the first time something's run, but the fact that it can compile and optimize for the specifically available hardware makes up for it. There are very specific areas where it lags (large matrices and heavy numerics), but as a general-purpose programming language performance is no longer an issue.

And I don't know about moving from one VM to another, but on the Sun VM you can move across OSes without issue. In fact, with more recent Java releases any VM that meets their spec tends to be extremely good about running valid code. (There are certainly a few pitfalls that some programmers fall into, especially regarding threads, where their code makes assumptions about a particular VM's implementation that can lead to problems.)

Re:Java's dead! (0, Redundant)

Ngarrang (1023425) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277282)

Java can be used for more than just web pages. I use a great little program called FreeMind that is written in Java. It is a stand-alone app. Java has a lot more uses for it and it is being used more wide-spread than some might believe.

Re:Java's dead! (4, Funny)

msobkow (48369) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277284)

Cornell: 'The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#';

Apparently Cornell doesn't realize C#/.Net is just Microsoft's implementation of a p-machine and framework, the same as Java. With such insightful educators, it is no wonder some of the newer computer science students don't have an adequate background in abstraction and conceptualization of systems.

BTW, Java is far from "dead" or even a coma (5, Informative)

msobkow (48369) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277508)

Out of all the interviews I did this year, only one shop wanted .Net services, and they wanted VB, not C#. Half a dozen shops about the same size were sticking with Java. Half a dozen shops several times the size were also sticking with Java.

I think it's a lot easier to add unsigned types to Java than it is to switch to a new framework.

Re:Java's dead! (2, Informative)

crucini (98210) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277800)

Apparently Cornell doesn't realize C#/.Net is just Microsoft's implementation of a p-machine and framework, the same as Java

What makes you think Cornell doesn't realize that? Did you think the quoted statement called C# a dynamic language? It didn't.

Re:Java's dead! (2, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17278158)

Apparently Cornell doesn't realize C#/.Net is just Microsoft's implementation of a p-machine and framework, the same as Java.

What makes you think that realising that stands in the way of it becoming more popular?

Shh! (2, Funny)

Midnight Thunder (17205) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277624)

I read this on a messageboard years ago, it still makes me laugh to this day.

Yup, Gnutella, Azureus and Eclipse users (amongst others) running these programs on Linux, Windows, MacOS X, etc will be scratching their head wondering what voodoo their programs are coded in (it has to be voodoo if Java is dead).

Ah well, people living in their ivory tower will always assume the alteratives are dead.

Re:Shh! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277948)

I wish Guntella was not in Java. I cannot stand to use Azureus and much prefer uTorrent (that's in C, mind you). Eclipse drives me mad. Java applications are extreme memory hogs, the Java GUI libraries absolutely suck with the world's worst redraw algorithms (slow like hell like GTK+ [on Windows?], Firefox, etc.), and the slower start up is exceptionally annoying.

I vehemently avoid Java programs, and so do people I know. We'd only use a program written in Java if there really was no alternative.

I have a 3.2 GHZ processor, and I'm not anywhere near on a '98 computer.

Boston Globe (5, Funny)

KruiserX (1008455) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276592)

When the the Boston Globe was asked about the decline of JAVA to dynamic languages their reply was to "stop using JAVA"

Re:Boston Globe (1, Funny)

romland (192158) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276640)

Wow! Awesome! Thanks for that helpful nugget of advice there, chief! That kind of knee-jerk bullshit response is about as annoying as the zealots on certain tech boards who answer every question about a Windows problem with "INSTALL LINUX, PROBLEM SOLVED." Basically it means "I have nothing helpful to contribute, but I just thought I'd act like a douchebag anyway."

Re:Boston Globe (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276686)

Hmmm. Looks like a joke flew WAY over someone's head...

Re:Boston Globe (1)

KruiserX (1008455) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276704)

I'll just "stop commenting on /." then.

I say GPL3 can go fuck itself (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276632)

nt

David Heinemeier is a troll (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276636)

David Heinemeier Hansson: 'The stigma of being a Web programmer still using Windows will increase.'

I guess we can say the same about those snobby pre-teen emo kids using the Mac.

Re:David Heinemeier is a troll (1)

ShieldW0lf (601553) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276650)

If I had mod points, you would have them all

Re:David Heinemeier is a troll (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276864)

Except he's right! Windows is good for office applications and games, professionals* shouldn't be using it for anything.

* Including people running office applications and even pro-gamers.

Re:David Heinemeier is a troll (3, Insightful)

blowdart (31458) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277322)

Except he's right! Windows is good for office applications and games, professionals* shouldn't be using it for anything.

Oh please, use what's right for your environment. And frankly in the web space what's on the back end shouldn't matter one bit, it all pumps out HTML/XHTML/RSS/whatever. Unless of course he's saying that Ruby just sucks on Windows; in which case whose fault is that really?

It is official; Netcraft now confirms: (1)

zBoD (86938) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276696)

JAVA is dying.

--
BoD

Re:It is official; Netcraft now confirms: (4, Informative)

Marcus Green (34723) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276962)

Quick search on the nearest Job board
Occurances of the word Java
3043
Occurances of the word Ruby
30
Reports of death seriously exaggerated

Re:It is official; Netcraft now confirms: (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277052)

This is no shock for firefox users with the noscript addon. Just try it and browse anywhere you like. There's always some javascript in all the websites.

Open-sourcing of Java will increase its use (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276698)

We can't wait until Java is included in Debian. It'll simplify our maintenance quote a bit, for we have a ton of Java apps, our whole business runs on Java.

As for Ruby... well, Ruby's fine but now we have even less resons to consider it. See, for example, "Ruby's rotting" article.

Umm...what stigma? (4, Insightful)

Aphrika (756248) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276702)

'The stigma of being a Web programmer still using Windows will increase.'
Am I missing something here, I was unaware that there was a stigma attached to being a web programmer using Windows. Right tools for the job, whether it's Ruby on Rails or not I'm afraid. Last project was PHP on Apache and MySQL, current project is ASP.NET and SQL Server 2005. My next project will be PHP on Windows using MySQL and IIS. I do what's best for my clients, not what's flavour of the month.

Attaching a stigma to certain platforms or technologies for certain jobs is just stupid and childish. Are we going to start lambasting publishers that don't use Macs next, or Linux users that do accounting on their machines? Bizarre...

Re:Umm...what stigma? (0)

GIL_Dude (850471) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276732)

Well said. I am out of mod points, so I can't mod you up - but definitely well said.

That quote was out of context (4, Insightful)

brokeninside (34168) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276752)

Hansson's prediction was that Apple will become the development platform of choice for techies and, consequently, other developers will laugh at any web devs saddled with using a Windows based laptop.

I disagree (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276920)

Well I don't think it was - the guy said that Windows stigma will continue to increase. There currently is no Windows stigma, so how could it possibly continue to increase? I digress...

Anyway, I could stick Boot Camp on a Mac and run Visual Studio .NET on it, but seeing as the PC does all the other stuff a Mac does, why would I want to?

If you are looking at web developers specifically, then VS.NET does constitute a massive tool in the arsenal, and Windows will happily run everything else you need; MS SQL Server, Mysql, Apache, IIS, Perl, PHP, Ruby, Rails, Java, JSP, etc. so I see no reason to stop using it just because some chap with a snow white piece of kit is going to sneer at me pointlessly.

Re:I disagree (1)

easter1916 (452058) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276944)

Or seeing as how OS X can do anything Windows can do, why would I want Windows?

It's cheaper. (1, Insightful)

FatSean (18753) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277182)

You don't have to buy the all-show no-go over-priced Apple hardware.

Re:It's cheaper. (1)

FishWithAHammer (957772) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277468)

And you get two hardware mouse buttons on your laptop. ;)

Though honestly, if Apple brought back the trackball mounted on the laptop, I would probably buy one (and immediately nuke OS X in favor of Windows and Linux).

Re:I disagree (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17278102)

You mean, besides running any of the software I need? Because that essentially makes it an expensive white paperweight as far as I'm concerned. I don't see why anyone would want a Mac.

Re:Umm...what stigma? (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276758)

current project is ASP.NET and SQL Server 2005. [...] I do what's best for my clients
You can't have it both ways, you're either doing what's best for your clients or you're using SQL Server 2005.

Java and Eclipse run on Windows (1)

msobkow (48369) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277536)

As you say, use the right tool for the job. If you have a Linux, AIX, Windows, Solaris, or other box, the odds are it runs Java and Eclipse.

My own pet project work has moved from platform to platform for a decade or so, shifting from Borland JBuilder to Sun's tools and eventually Eclipse. Java 1.0-1.5 have always been true to the concept of platform neutrality.

GPLv2 is not a detractor. If Oracle can mandate that the web users have to be counted and the number of web sessions limited, then clearly the GPLv2 demands to release source apply to any web-deployed application as well. Only users WITHIN an organization are allowed to access GPLv2 based application enhancements without publishing those changes back to the community.

Re:Umm...what stigma? (1, Interesting)

JohnFluxx (413620) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277612)

Hi,
    A serious question - when is using SQL server the right tool for any job? Or was it because that's what the client wanted/knew?

Re:Umm...what stigma? (4, Insightful)

Aphrika (756248) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277828)

Interesting. Well firstly I'd like to say that I don't consider myself a fanboy of any particular database/OS/web server/development product, I work to solve problems, not increase/decrease some software/hardware company's market share.

In most cases, SQL Server is right becasue a company has in-house SQL Server Admins and deploying another database platform is a waste on company resources. That would entail another complete platform and maintenance/admin skillset. In many cases companies don't want this, which makes perfect sense as there's no point having a disparate bunch of technologies that you need to manage. If I was ever deploying a .NET solution, SQL Server 2000/2005 is also what I'd recommend as it talks to .NET code much more effectively than MySQL or other alternatives. Performance of SQL Server against MySQL with .NET code is way better to the extent that I wouldn't recommend MySQL in that situation, regardless of deployment cost. As you work with various platforms, technologies and languages, you tend to fit the ones which fit together best - that's something that comes with experience. You also have to look at an outfit before you start on a new database project. If a company is using a lot of Windows boxes, has sysadmins who are Windows-based, then chances are that they'll be much more at home doing admin of a SQL Server on a Windows platform. In an ideal world, I'd all roll out what I personally love best. In a business world (the real world) I roll out what's best long term for the client, and that's looking at return on investments, total costs of ownership and what they already have in place. There's no point in rolling a shiny new Windows 2003 server into an Oracle datacenter and asking them to admin it. These are all factors that'll affect what I'm recommending/using/deploying.

Personally speaking, I've never had any issus with any SQL Server versions in either performance, scaling or security. A well installed, maintained and managed setup will work really well and be considerably cheaper than alternatives such as Oracle. While MySQL may be cheaper, it's not as fully featured as SQL Server. Off the top of my head, I reckon I've dealt with around 40 or 50 SQL Server setups since version 6.5 and I don't have a bad word to say about them - never had an intrusion, never had database corruption, havce ported databases between machines with no problems, run them on VMware etc. etc. It's certainly one of Microsoft's better technology platforms and though many people would like me to, I can't really fault it. Same goes for MySQL - I like it and I use it where necessary and relevant, i.e. conversely, I'd tend to roll out MySQL in a Linux-house if I were developing PHP on Apache for instance. As I said earlier, you find technologies fit together through experience.

Although as with anything out there, chances are someone's had some really bad experiences with it and couldn't recommend it though personal experiences, YMMV.

Hope that answers your question though.

Re:Umm...what stigma? (1)

JohnFluxx (413620) | more than 7 years ago | (#17278094)

Thanks!

I get most of your points (and reluctantly agree), but not sure whether the performance part is legitimate - it seems unlikely that the marshaling interface is going to have any significant impact.

The Best Predictions From The Article.... (5, Funny)

E++99 (880734) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276762)

...by Richard Monson-Haefel
Award-Winning Author & Senior Analyst, Burton Group

1. Jonathan Schwartz open-sources Sun Microsystems.
In a move that will surprise everyone Sun Microsystems will announce that it will open source its entire company. Sales, marketing, finance, and even operations will be open to the community for anyone to contribute.

2. Apple computer announces the iPod Uno.
The size of a match stick with no screen or controls, the iPod Uno plays one song in a constant loop. Despite its limited capabilities, the tiny device becomes an instant hit and a cultural icon.

3. In what is heralded as the seminal article on the subject, Tim Berners-Lee mentions "IT2"
Overnight the term morphs into "IT 2.0," spawning thousands of blog entries and press articles, a dozen books, five conferences, and millions of dollars in venture capital. It turns out that the original article, incomprehensible to most readers, was actually another attempt to explain the Semantic Web and the IT2 reference was just a typo.

4. Microsoft will create the first CMO (Chief Marketing Officer) position.
The new CMO will immediately change his own title to Chief Command & Control of Packaging Officer (C3PO) and then announce that Vista will be delayed and renamed Microsoft Virtualization Application Program Operating system Reloaded (Microsoft VAPOR).

...funniest stuff I've read in a very long time.

Re:The Best Predictions From The Article.... (1)

kfg (145172) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276950)

2. Apple computer announces the iPod Uno.
The size of a match stick with no screen or controls, the iPod Uno plays one song in a constant loop. Despite its limited capabilities, the tiny device becomes an instant hit and a cultural icon.


Well, considering that's what my desktop is usually doing I might actually buy that. A while ago an upstairs neighbor knocked on my door and rather sheepishly asked if I'd mind turning the music down a bit. She admited it was quite lovely, but it had been the same bloody song for three hours and it was getting to be a bit much.

Traditional musicians do not learn music from notation, they pick it up by osmosis. I can only assume that this prediction is a secondary effect and not the primary; in 2007 everyone takes up Celtic whistle/fiddle.

Except the bodhran players.

And they never listen to music anyway.

KFG

Re:The Best Predictions From The Article.... (1)

VGfort (963346) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277300)

Overnight the term morphs into "IT 2.0," ...
You know what this means dont you? You coined the phrase, its all over now. It will be submitted on Wikipedia pretty soon and we'll all start seeing articles on Slashdot every 3 days using that phrase. I guess IT 2.0 refers to tech support people that use a triple boot system on their MacBooks (linux, windows, os x).

Wrong Tim! (1)

BitwizeGHC (145393) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277466)




3. In what is heralded as the seminal article on the subject, Tim Berners-Lee mentions "IT2"


I don't think TBL would be so buzzwordy. Tim O'Reilly on the other hand...

Uno (1)

simpl3x (238301) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277784)

Have you ever heard of the Buddha Box?

An executive summary (0)

greg_barton (5551) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276772)

"Sun did exactly what we wanted with Java. It still sux0r!"

Crystal Ball time... (5, Interesting)

starseeker (141897) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276776)

OK, we all know how useful and accurate these predictions tend to be, but since it's that time of year...

The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#.

That depends on what market we are talking about. Open sourcing Java will make a MASSIVE difference in terms of Java's appeal to the open source development community. Whether this translates to more Java software or not I don't know, but there are already some very good programs in Java that are open source (Jedit http://jedit.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] , Jabref http://jabref.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] and JaxoDraw http://jaxodraw.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] come readily to mind). Seamless integration with Linux distributions has the potential to make it a much more popular language, and may also result in usability improvements to the environment itself.

Other languages will grow of course, but I would personally be surprised if Java fades too much except perhaps as the "new toy". There is a LOT of Java code out there, and it is doing important work.

The use of the GPL 2 for open-sourcing Java will inhibit the completion and acceptance of the GPL 3 proposal.

I don't understand this. GPL3 will go forward as it is going forward now, with much discussion - I can't imagine any issues Java would raise that aren't already being raised. Anybody with more knowledge of the process and Java know what he's saying here?

Now, just to get into the swing of things, my predictions:

a) Every major Linux distribution will deploy Sun's JRE as a core system component soon after a full open source release is made. Allow six months to replace any pieces that could not be released due to copyright/license issues. The Sun JDK will also see large scale integration.

b) Open source software written in Java that already exists will get a boost in interest and visibility, as it is no longer using a language that is non-free.

c) Graphics performance and native appearance of widgets will be a major focus of interest and effort, possibly resulting in Java applications becoming better integrated visually with the desktop. This may actually cost Java a bit in terms of name recognition, as end users will see less visual evidence of the difference between Java and other languages (I know, I know - that's not what makes Java different, but it's what can be SEEN that counts.)

d) As Linux distributions integrate and include Java by default, it will increase the appeal of both Java and Linux on the server side.

And one that I would like to see proven wrong:

e) No major OEM computer maker will add the Sun JRE as a default part of their desktop, despite it being released as GPL.

Re:Crystal Ball time... (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276900)

e) No major OEM computer maker will add the Sun JRE as a default part of their desktop, despite it being released as GPL.


My parents recently bought a new HP computer that came with the SUN JRE preinstalled.

Re:Crystal Ball time... (-1, Flamebait)

jgrahn (181062) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277002)

That depends on what market we are talking about. Open sourcing Java will make a MASSIVE difference in terms of Java's appeal to the open source development community. Whether this translates to more Java software or not I don't know [...]

I doubt it. There's an awful lot of Kool-Aid you have to drink to become a Java programmer. Java isn't a language, it's a family of platforms. For a Unix person like myself, something like Python will always win over Java, precisely because it doesn't attempt to be a platform. In fact, Python tries to provide the Unix APIs in a convenient and straightforward way. The same goes for all relevant task-specific libraries. (And if you don't like Python, there are a handful of other popular, free languages at an abstraction level higher than Java, which share the same platform-agnostic approach.)

And meanwhile, Java is stuck on its own little island, and the beaches and the surfing aren't better there than anywhere else.

[...]but there are already some very good programs in Java that are open source (Jedit http://jedit.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] , Jabref http://jabref.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] and JaxoDraw http://jaxodraw.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] come readily to mind).

It's never a good sign when a program advertises the language it's written in by adopting the language's initial letter for its own name ...

Those programs are good, but unusable. (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277138)

Whether this translates to more Java software or not I don't know, but there are already some very good programs in Java that are open source (Jedit http://jedit.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] [sourceforge.net], Jabref http://jabref.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] [sourceforge.net] and JaxoDraw http://jaxodraw.sourceforge.net/ [sourceforge.net] [sourceforge.net] come readily to mind). Seamless integration with Linux distributions has the potential to make it a much more popular language, and may also result in usability improvements to the environment itself.

In terms of the functionality they offer, those are good programs. But the problem is that they're virtually unusable, even on extremely fast systems with lots of RAM, just because Java's performance is so poor.

I just did some timings (measured with the time command) with Java 1.6.0 on Debian Linux, on a 2.6 GHz Opteron system with 4 GB of RAM. jEdit, for instance, takes 34 seconds to load up initially. That is without other Java programs being executed, so we don't have class library sharing taking place. That is also after having run the SwingSet2 demos apps, just to get the JVM and classes loaded off of disk and into the buffer cache. Subsequent loadings took between 23 and 27 seconds.

Other text editors are far quicker. Nedit takes under a second. KDE's Kate takes 2 seconds. Gedit takes 15 s on the first load, and then 8 s or so on subsequent loads. Regardless, I don't see why I'd want to use jEdit for quick editing tasks when it takes so long to load. I could have edited perhaps five to ten files using Nedit in the same time that it takes for jEdit to load!

jEdit offers some really nice features, but until its performance is improved 30 fold, it just won't be a suitable replacement for other graphical text editors.

Re:Those programs are good, but unusable. (1)

Arslan ibn Da'ud (636514) | more than 7 years ago | (#17278192)

Quoth the parent:
"jEdit offers some really nice features, but until its performance is improved 30 fold, it just won't be a suitable replacement for other graphical text editors."

Java's JRE is big enough that it puts a damper on any program starting up very quickly. So I wouldn't use jedit (or any other Java program) for quick-startup tasks. I'd sooner bring it up once, use it to edit lots of files for a long time, keep it around even if not using it, just so it's there again if I need it.

Sort of like emacs. So jedit is more likely to replace emacs than vi :)

s/jedit/your favorite Java app/g;

Re:Crystal Ball time... (1)

oohshiny (998054) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277404)

That depends on what market we are talking about. Open sourcing Java will make a MASSIVE difference in terms of Java's appeal to the open source development community.


No, it will merely turn the unacceptable into the unpalatable.

d) As Linux distributions integrate and include Java by default, it will increase the appeal of both Java and Linux on the server side.

Yes, that is likely to happen: Linux distributions will ship with more Java server-side stuff. Nevertheless, PHP-based server apps are still going to be predominant because they're easier to develop and lower footprint.

Re:Crystal Ball time... (1)

LauraW (662560) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277964)

b) Open source software written in Java that already exists will get a boost in interest and visibility, as it is no longer using a language that is non-free.

I don't see this making a big difference. Most of the open-source Java software I've seen is aimed at accomplishing a particular task in Java, so the people who would consider using it have already bought in to Java itself. I'm thinking mostly of web development frameworks like Hibernate [hibernate.org] , Struts [slashdot.org] , and Webwork [opensymphony.com] . The people using them have already made the decision to do server-side Java; the fact that it's now open-source is nice but not really that big a deal. Maybe I'm biased because I mostly do server-side Java development, and everyone I know who writes that sort of software already uses plenty of open-source libraries.

Re:Crystal Ball time... (1)

kripkenstein (913150) | more than 7 years ago | (#17278040)

Furthermore, even if "[Java's use declines] in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#", that would only be true of Java-as-a-language, not Java-as-a-platform. JRuby and JPython, for example, may increase in use, particularly since Java is/will soon be open-sourced. If there are benefits to running those two languages on the Java platform (and there may be: speed/stability, and perhaps access to Java libraries), there is no reason why not to.

Trollpost (5, Insightful)

Elektroschock (659467) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276786)

Is is an ivory tower troll. In fact almost no one uses ruby. It may be hot among Nerds and its growing. Java went into the enterprises in the 90th as Cobol did before. C++ was less usable for enterprises. Java looked good and fostered plattform independency, helped to increase interoperability. "Java to go" is as off-topic as the prediction that FreeBSD would take over Linux. Ruby and Python are upcoming languages. Growing but you have to wait for another five years. Open Source Java will mean all Linux systems will ship free Java. Java will get a working GNU compiler native compilation. Java will be the trusted alternative to -- arrrgh patents --- Mono for enterprise applications. SUN knew exactly why they did it. Linux will become a strong Java plattform and with Linux on so many servers that will give Java and Linux a boost.

Ridiculous (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276788)

The use of the GPL 2 for open-sourcing Java will inhibit the completion and acceptance of the GPL 3 proposal

Sun choosing to use GPL2 before GPL3 exists is irrelevant to GPL3's acceptance or non-acceptance. Linus' attitude, amongst others, to the GPL3 will have at least some affect on its acceptance. Sun's use of GPL 2 will have none.

If Sun choose not to use GPL3 when it exists then that might conceivably have some impact on others' choices, but probably not much. Anyone who desperately cares about Sun's choice of licenses wouldn't have been using GPL before the Java announcement anyway.

My own predictions (5, Insightful)

mgkimsal2 (200677) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276804)

In no particular order:

Java as Open Source will help in creating smaller versions - perhaps very lightweight browser-plugins - optimized for particular use (media, number crunching, etc.). These browser plugins will help revive Java as a thin-client/web2.0 (3.0?) player in browser-based apps, possibly even making some small inroads against Flash. The 'apollo' project from Adobe may put the kibosh on this, but the increased-eyeballs angle will likely prevent a complete obliteration from happening to desktop Java.

Java will become even faster. Although this has happened in 2006, with the release of Java 6, the full impact will be a refitting of the niche Java apps out there to work specifically with Java 6 and the speed improvements there. This will give some Java some good PR points and case studies with the 'Java is slow' crowd (which I'm definately a member of [fosterburgess.com] ).

(As I think one of the panelists in the article said) - there will be a greater acceptance of dynamic languages (ruby/php/python/etc) in Java shops, as Java6's support for dynamic languages (JSR 223 I think [jcp.org] ) will help increase productivity for Java devs willing to think outside their javaBox.

Re:My own predictions (2, Interesting)

hey! (33014) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277394)

Speaking of smaller, what about J2ME?

Java is for many practical purposes an operating system. What mobile java needs is a packaging system like Debian's or BSD's.

If there were a packaging system, then your (non-trivial) mobile application could reach many more devices. J2ME only exists as a number of proprietary implementations with incompatible libraries, and hard to obtain unless it is bundled with your device. They all pass compliance tests, but the bare minimum API is so bare that they all add some set of additional J2SE features. Use those features and your application is no longer portable.

links to SYS-CON articles should carry warnings. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276810)

I nearly did stop reading at the words "SYS-CON", since I'd already given them the ad-hit and started reading I carried on. There are a couple of minor insights, some humor and an overwhelming sense that these guys are underestimating the importance of Java going free. GPL Java doesn't need AJAX hype and it's not going to change the world overnight. It is going to be used for new projects in place of C/C++ and yes, even in place of dynamic languages. Saying that Java being placed under GPL will make no difference to it's decline is foolishly short sighted.

JAVA and GLP v3 (3, Insightful)

MMC Monster (602931) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276812)

Did anyone really expect JAVA to be released as GPL v3? A license that hasn't even been written yet? Or wait until GPL v3 is released (is there a set date for that?)?

stigma (5, Funny)

Threni (635302) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276826)

> Rails creator David Heinemeier Hansson: 'The stigma of being a Web programmer still using Windows will increase.'"

The stigma of a well paid job. Ah, how will I ever show my face in civilized society again.

Re:stigma (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276922)

> The stigma of a well paid job. Ah, how will I ever show my face in civilized society again.

A company needs more money than sense to deploy web apps on Windows. Is this the true face of civilization?

Re:stigma (1)

easter1916 (452058) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276928)

I'm a J2EE guy, have to agree. All the snotty little bitches who look down their noses at those who work with particular technologies are the losers. It's a very comfortable living.

Re:stigma (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277220)

Is monies compensation enough for your small penis and the fac that you're a pussy programmer (in the big picture, compared to a real language like C/C++)?

C/C++ is the pussy language. (1)

FatSean (18753) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277294)

My J2EE applications are running in 5 datacenters on 4 continents and keeping in sync using features built into the container that cost me nothing to implement past some configuration.

So nyah :P

Re:C/C++ is the pussy language. (0, Troll)

geckofiend (314803) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277408)

Wow 5 whole data centers? I'm impressed, really I am.

You sound just like the guys bragging about the "enterprise" apps they built with VB.

Re:C/C++ is the pussy language. (1)

Threni (635302) | more than 7 years ago | (#17278130)

Your use of double quotes suggests you don't think it's possible to write enterprise apps in VB. You're wrong - you can; I do - and you get paid pretty well for it. People used to say VB was slow. Maybe it was, once. Who cares? It's not now - either VB6 or the new versions.

I could easily learn to write stuff for Linux in other languages, but why bother? It would be more, harder work, for less money, so what's the point? Get in - get the job done - move onto something else.

People who slag off a language betray ignorance of when it's the right time to use it.

Heh... Java's got it's place, but... (2, Interesting)

Svartalf (2997) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277982)

In reality, Java's got it's place. But if you're trying to push massive volumes of data or need deterministic operation, Java's NOT the choice.
The GC will always cut in at the worst possible times, impacting your ability to respond to data, etc. YOU try collecting 30 Gbytes of uncompressed
data daily with it sometime. We did use Java for front-ends to process the feeds coming from the trading markets at one of my previous jobs, but
the stuff that aggregated it and sent it to the trading engine and preserved it on disk was all PURE C++ code. The Java stuff couldn't cut it.

I certainly wouldn't use it to control anything like a nuclear reactor or a fly-by-wire system, let alone the task I mentioned.
Java's good for normal business apps, user interfaces where performance isn't absolutely critical, and the like. Something
like C/C++, Pascal, Ada, or even Forth would be a better choice in areas like those.

Re:Heh... Java's got it's place, but... (1)

voidptr (609) | more than 7 years ago | (#17278066)

I certainly wouldn't use it to control anything like a nuclear reactor
That's probably a good idea since the Java license [java.com] says:

You acknowledge that Licensed Software is not designed or intended for use in the design, construction, operation or maintenance of any nuclear facility.
I wonder if they'll leave that clause in there when it goes GPL.

I love predictions (1)

diegocgteleline.es (653730) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276880)

Who doesn't? Even if they're always wrong (the people who can predict that kind of things are the same people who are behind of the $Big $Companies and know what products and strategies are they releasing in the next year) people don't seems to stop reading them.

It's like horoscope. There's always people wanting to hear what's going to happen in the future. It doesn't really matters what they say - we just want to be told what we want to hear. We love being lied. Some people wants to hear that nobody will be using java the next year, others C#, etc.

that's funny ... (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17276890)

'The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#'

That's funny, we're moving away from Ruby and going to Java. :)

(Severe performance problems with anything to do with Ruby and XML)

I think they're right (1)

oohshiny (998054) | more than 7 years ago | (#17276904)

The problem with Java has only in part been the license; mostly, it has been Sun's stifling control over the platform. As a result, Java has numerous technical problems. Of course, if Java had been an open standard for the past 10 years, there'd be dozens of independent implementations right now. They'd be partially incompatible, and that would be a good thing.

Overall, open sourcing Java was necessary for Sun to remain relevant at all; it will stabilize Java for a little longer, but unless Sun is willing to make some radical changes to the Java platform--including a massive cleanup and pruning of the libraries--Java is past its peak.

Re:I think they're right (3, Insightful)

Timesprout (579035) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277012)

Of course, if Java had been an open standard for the past 10 years, there'd be dozens of independent implementations right now
I love statements like this. The specs for the language have been available since day one. There are a couple of very good alternative implementations (free as in beer) and some very mediocre OSS attempts. Its been a constant source of amusement to me that for all the 'we have all the best developers etc etc etc' the 'community' has harped on at Sun for years to open source because basically they have been unable to produce a comparable implementation on their own. It's for this reason I think Sun opening Java fully will make sod all difference, just as opening Solaris made sod all difference (yes different licence but very much a case of 'ta we'll just cherry pick the good stuff like dtrace and port it to linux').

Re:I think they're right (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277474)

The open source community can't produce a comparable version because the goal line keeps moving. Sun keeps dumping more and more crap into J2SE, so the amount of work that open source developers would need to do keeps on increasing.

In Java 6 they added JavaScript support. So now to have a comparable implementation you need to include a JavaScript engine.

As it stands, the Java standard libraries currently include:

2 GUI libraries, AWT and Swing
2 IO libraries, IO and NIO
2 collection libraries, with the old one retrofitted to match the new one
2 Remote Method Invocation implementations, Java RMI and CORBA
2 XML parsers (DOM and SAX)
A ZIP library
A sound library
Various cryptography APIs
SQL library
And that's not all, I just got tired of looking up the various libraries.

It just keeps on growing with every release. New methods get added to old versions. The API keeps on changing. No open source release can keep up with it because the target keeps on moving further and further away.

Re:I think they're right (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277962)

There are a couple of very good alternative implementations (free as in beer) and some very mediocre OSS attempts.


All those alternate implementations are derived from Sun's implementation except for Microsoft's original JVM and the OSS implementations. Also Java language specs have complete OSS implementations in the form of compilers and the JVM for a long time. Most of the trouble was with the class libraries which are part of the Java platform. Classpath is probably closest with the 1.5 class libraries nearly done and now the project will die.

Re:I think they're right (1)

Svartalf (2997) | more than 7 years ago | (#17278004)

Heh... The Sun classpath's not GPLed yet. If the GNU Classpath is as close as both of us think, there'll be some
merging with only one, the combined effort will result. It's GPLed after all.

Re:I think they're right (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277148)

The problem with Java has only in part been the license; mostly, it has been Sun's stifling control over the platform

You mean like preventing MSFT from writing their own incomptable version? How long have you been following java for? What exactly has Sun been stifling? Name a couple of things.

As a result, Java has numerous technical problems.

Such as?

Re:I think they're right (1)

Decaff (42676) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277630)

Of course, if Java had been an open standard for the past 10 years, there'd be dozens of independent implementations right now. They'd be partially incompatible, and that would be a good thing.

It would have been a total disaster. One of the primary reasons for the success of Java is compatibility.

Overall, open sourcing Java was necessary for Sun to remain relevant at all; it will stabilize Java for a little longer, but unless Sun is willing to make some radical changes to the Java platform--including a massive cleanup and pruning of the libraries--Java is past its peak.

You have to be kidding. It is hard to imagine a set of statements so disconnected from IT reality.

First, you may want to take a look at recent server sales - Sun now sells more servers than Dell. Would you call Dell irrelevant or in decline?

Secondly of all, Java use is still growing - it has recently ranked above C++ on sourceforge. Java is not declining in the face of dynamic languages - in fact, one of the most exciting new implementations of a dynamic language - JRuby - is based on Java! The future is dynamic languages and Java together.

Secondly, the JRE is still relatively small. How long does a 15MB download take these days? A couple of minutes on broadband. Have you ever heard an end user of the JRE complain 'because there are too many libraries'? I haven't.

dead! (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277046)

I'm so glad Java's dying! Never liked it, C# all the way.

No Agreement (2, Insightful)

WED Fan (911325) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277142)

AJAX is dying. AJAX will grow. AJAX has no future. AJAX has a future.

JAVA is irrelevent. JAVA will grow.

Apple is irrelevent. Apple is irrelevent...oh, they agreed.

Anyway, anyone who takes these kind of articles seriously are wasting their time. Our shop does IIS, ASP.NET, SQL2005, Ruby-on-Rails, MySQL, VB.NET, C#, C++, Borland, MS, and Linux OSS flavors. In other words, we have the tools and the skills to do what is necessary to get the job done, the way our CUSTOMER needs it to be done. No tech prima-dona BS of telling the customer that we won't give them what they want. If the customer doesn't have implementation requirements, then we determine what they need, suggest and then build on their approval.

Wait, what C# is a "dynamic language"? (0)

feijai (898706) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277196)

C# has practically identical typing semantics to Java. Either this is a misquote or Gary Cornell is much, much stupider than his PhD would suggest.

Re:Wait, what C# is a "dynamic language"? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277276)

Option 3: you misread the quote. It's not "dynamic languages (Ruby, Python and C#)". It's "dynamic languages...and C#." Read it again.

Re:Wait, what C# is a "dynamic language"? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277538)

That's what jumped out to me. He has no idea what he's talking about.


Don't believe the hype people. The biggest difference between "static" and "dynamic" languages is that dynamic languages are more likely to run a lot slower and programs implemented in them are less likely to be correct. There aren't any programs that can be implemented in one and not the other. Beware of folks that latch on to that buzz word, usually they don't know what they are talking about. Similar to the OO people, how many can explain the difference between modeling and implementation?


Is there any evidence that Java is actually "in decline?" If so it's certainly to C# and not Ruby.


The blur of SOA and AJAX line is funny too. Why limit the concept of SOA to such a small domain as the presentation layer? Does he not understand the concept? These guys aren't engineers, don't expect them to know engineering.

FAG&ORZ (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277264)

be on a w8ong milestones, 7elling

My Prediction For 2007: JDJ Continues To Suck (0)

Teckla (630646) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277334)

My predictions for 2007:
  • Java Developers Journal will continue to suck
  • Java Developers Journal contributors will continue to suck
  • Java Developers Journal will continue to be irrelevant
  • Smart people will continue to ignore Java Developers Journal

My prediction for 2007 (1)

Kohath (38547) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277426)

Pundits will continue to confuse "buzz" with reality. Professionals who work in a field will make choices based on getting their work done. Outside observers will base their knowledge on what seems new and trendy.

lame (1)

namekuseijin (604504) | more than 7 years ago | (#17277554)

"The open-sourcing of Java will have no effect whatsoever on Java's slow decline in favor of dynamic languages (Ruby, Python) and C#"

I can certainly understand the appeal of ruby or python to write clear code. But the author then pulls a C# out of nowhere and places it in the same bag! Does he even know C# the language is almost an exact copy of Java the language plus a few Delphi touches?

Dynamic languages ? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17277672)

You mean, things like Ruby [codehaus.org] , Python [jython.org] or PHP [caucho.com] running on an open-source JVM ?

Java is doing better than ever IMHO. (3, Informative)

TheNarrator (200498) | more than 7 years ago | (#17278080)

I have been programming in Java since 2000 and it just gets easier and more powerful to develop with. Sure there were some big disasters in Java land like EJB1 and EJB2 but that's all cleared out of the way and the tools now are fantastic. I've been working with Appfuse, JSF, Hibernate, Testng, Spring and the latest versions of Eclipse and almost every day I find myself smiling with glee at how easy web development has become compared to a few years ago. The biggest mistakes for new developers in Java is not using Eclipse and not using either Maven or Appfuse. That's because there's a lot to take advantage of in Java land and getting all the tools and dependencies set up and rolling along can take quite a while. Both Maven and Appfuse make this process go a lot quicker and tend to steer the developer in the right direction. Eclipse makes understanding the whole thing a lot easier as well and the refactoring and debugging are amazing. After the initial setup though things start to become very easy and fun and development goes quickly. This is the opposite situation from programming in a dynamic language. Starting in a dynamic language is easy but as programs grow, the lack of static typing and refactoring support causes more and more bugs to start sprouting up and the system generally get more painful to work with.

    I don't know why anyone would want to work with C#. I never run into showstopper bugs in third party libraries with Java because I have the source and can trace into the libraries, find the bugs, report them to the developers and then find an intelligent workaround while a $35 call to MS tech support will tell me to reinstall my whole system and upgrade to the latest versions.

Re:Java is doing better than ever IMHO. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17278166)

Eclipse makes understanding the whole thing a lot easier as well and the refactoring and debugging are amazing. After the initial setup though things start to become very easy and fun and development goes quickly. This is the opposite situation from programming in a dynamic language. Starting in a dynamic language is easy but as programs grow, the lack of static typing and refactoring support causes more and more bugs to start sprouting up and the system generally get more painful to work with.

if you need an IDE to help you understand your own code, youre already on the wrong page. I do Java full time using TextMate and a command line, and its no small application we develop. Dynamic languages don't suffer because theres no IDE or static type checker...only people who cant imagine how to work without an IDE think that way.

C# is a dynamic language???? (1)

Vicegrip (82853) | more than 7 years ago | (#17278204)

C# is a compiled language, not an interpreted (dynamic) language and is no different than java in this respect.
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