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What Will Happen in IT in 2007?

Zonk posted more than 7 years ago | from the exciting-times dept.

IT 318

An anonymous reader writes "ZDNet's Paul Murphy has set out his IT predictions for 2007. Featured among the completely predictable, OpenSolaris overtaking Linux is apparently inevitable within one year. From the article: 'By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.' Is 2007 the year of the OpenSolaris desktop? Other 'inevitables' include Microsoft's success with Vista, the continuing phase-out of Itanium, and the Cell processor powering most of the world's super-computers."

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God, I hope so... (-1, Flamebait)

HerculesMO (693085) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413464)

I love Windows, but Vista with its DRM restrictions, "big brother" type of mentality makes me wish that Linux and OS X overtake Windows as the dominant OS in the CORPORATE world. Corporate world shows true acceptance. Right now Linux is total crap to use on the desktop because it's just not user friendly, and OS X has no applications that make it worthwhile. Vista has hopefully given OS X and Linux an edge here in time.

Re:God, I hope so... (1)

d3fault (934623) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413516)

Have you ever used OS X or Linux?

Re:God, I hope so... (1)

HerculesMO (693085) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414140)

I have a Macbook, use Ubuntu on and off :)

Re:God, I hope so... (5, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413560)

Hmmm, I have been using Linux desktop since Sep 2004.
At this time my work machine, home machine, my kids' desktop and school notebooks are all Linux (pclinuxos 0.92)
I assume you don't use Linux as your desktop, have not even tried one in the last couple years, hence the total crap comment.
The reality is, Linux desktop is as functional and user friendly as the Windows desktop for most mainstream applications.
As an added bonus, you're virtually immune to virus, adware, data corruption, system hangs, etc.
You also have realtime access to many high quality applications.
And should you need to run the occasional Windows apps - wine works for many of them.

Re:God, I hope so... (4, Insightful)

Bios_Hakr (68586) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413604)

DRM does not really matter to corporate. You shouldn't be watching movies or listening to music at work anyway. It's probably a selling point.

Re:God, I hope so... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413690)

DRM does not really matter to corporate. You shouldn't be watching movies or listening to music at work anyway. It's probably a selling point.

I agree that corporations don't care about DRM, and about movies, but what kind of draconian place doesn't allow music? I bet their employee's efficiency sucks.

Re:God, I hope so... (4, Insightful)

mOdQuArK! (87332) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413716)

DRM _will_ start to matter to corporate the first time a software vendor shuts down a mission-critical business application due to some sort of misunderstanding over payment terms.

Re:God, I hope so... (3, Interesting)

BoomerSooner (308737) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413672)

Which apps specifically are you referring to that will not run in either OS X or Linux?

The only hiccup I've run into running Linux or OS X (on non-mac hardware no less) is getting wifi working. A few internet searches later (other computer obviously) and voilà, they work.

In OS X you can run parallels but 99% of the Windows apps I use are available for OS X (for example, Office, Photoshop, Flash Studio, Quickbooks, Firefox, etc). Linux is a different story. That being said I have great luck running wine with photoshop and quickbooks. I've never tried flash but it's not needed. Open Office is a more than adequate replacement for MS Office. I don't use the extra 95% of tools available in those products anyway.

I like windows actually. I however love OS X. Linux is great as well. I cut my teeth using Linux in '95 while in college trying to get on doing Oracle DB development on HP-UX. I needed to be able to get around the shell and learn csh. Programming dot clocks to get your "new" video card to start X windows was an interesting learning experience. I'm forever amazed at the new distributions. Ubuntu (sp?), Fedora, etc. Ah the good old days of Slackware disk packages downloaded over ftp at the local Uni!

Tru64, Solaris (SunOS), hell even DR/MS-DOS in the days. Oh yeah Integer Basic on Apple ][ was great! Mac OS was pretty nice too, I was a bit sad to see OS 9 die. My first Mac with OS 9 & X dual boot made me see why so many people were into pre-OS X. 10.0 & 10.1 sucked IMO. However, 10.2 made my system exponentially faster, 10.3 sped it up even more, 10.4 was not such a drastic improvement, leading me to believe the OS is more mature now. I'd like to see that from an OS from Redmond. Windows gets massively larger per OS update. Granted Linux has as well. It however, includes almost 100% of what you need for an operational system. Windows just includes notepad ;)

Ciao

Re:God, I hope so... (2, Informative)

drewzhrodague (606182) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413786)

The only hiccup I've run into running Linux or OS X (on non-mac hardware no less) is getting wifi working. A few internet searches later (other computer obviously) and voilà, they work.

Yah, because you can't download a driver for an ethernet adaptor without its drivers. Otherwise, we're resorted to floppies, CDs, USB fobs, or some combinations of each!

Re:God, I hope so... (1)

lightning_queen (861008) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413932)

I've seen installs of Windows that lacked the Ethernet drivers for the onboard Ethernet...as well as half the other stuff on the mobo...

Re:God, I hope so... (1)

grub (11606) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413976)


I've seen installs of Windows that lacked the Ethernet drivers for the onboard Ethernet...as well as half the other stuff on the mobo...

That's why the NIC/video/sound/whatever-card manufacturers include a disc with the drivers. It's hardly fair to expect MS to have drivers on a Windows install disc for a new gigabit NIC released after the OS.

Re:God, I hope so... (4, Interesting)

Nasarius (593729) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414116)

Ehhhh...my onboard Intel Pro 10/100 (e100 on Linux, for many years) doesn't work without Dell's drivers on XP SP2. I think it finally works on Vista, some four years and a major OS version after the PC was made. On a newer computer, the XP installer doesn't work if I run my SATA drives in AHCI mode (surprise, runs fine on recent Linux kernels). If you look at default compatibility with modern hardware, Linux is way ahead of Windows. Linux fails on a tiny subset of just-released hardware that require their own drivers, and hardware where the vendor has threatened legal action (ie: Broadcom wireless adapters, until recently).

Bill Gaytes will LICK my BALLS. (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413744)

...and I will take a poop on that gay OLPC project. Suck it.
 
my confirmation word for this post is caskets. Hopefully that means that slashdot will DIE. digg is starting to suck as much also btw.

***MoDeRaToRs L@@K*** (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413812)

Mod parent insightful

I don't get it (3, Funny)

chriso11 (254041) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413466)

every competing OS developer community except Microsoft's will have copied the key ideas including its organisational structure

Does that mean that he wants Linus to get hit by a bus? Cause that's what I'm reading!

There will be competition for Exchange Server? NO! (0, Troll)

LibertineR (591918) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413468)

The one single app that if bested, would swing things away from Microsoft will have no significant competion in the marketplace. You would have to be some kind of zealot to deny that Exchange 2007 is an ass-kicker.

And you can restore it!!!!!

BWWAAAA!

Re:There will be competition for Exchange Server? (4, Interesting)

linebackn (131821) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413552)

What I don't get is that Microsoft made Exchange clients for DOS, Win31, and Mac (There was even a rare Outlook 97 for Windows 3.1!) Why hasn't any of that been successfully reverse engineered and cloned?

There will be money in Exchange Server clients. (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413850)

Pay me a million dollars and I'll do it.

Re:There will be competition for Exchange Server? (3, Funny)

dbIII (701233) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413970)

Why hasn't any of that been successfully reverse engineered and cloned?

Outlook not so good.

Re:There will be competition for Exchange Server? (4, Insightful)

supabeast! (84658) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414052)

What I don't get is that Microsoft made Exchange clients for DOS, Win31, and Mac (There was even a rare Outlook 97 for Windows 3.1!) Why hasn't any of that been successfully reverse engineered and cloned?
Because open-source programmers are often hobbyists who would rather cobble together one more mail client that will never have a measurable market share. One thing that the anti-Microsoft zealots need to realize is that the open-source crowd aren't in it to win, they're just in it for the code, and so relying on them to conquer the world is wrongheaded, if not downright stupid.

Re:There will be competition for Exchange Server? (2, Insightful)

misleb (129952) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414142)

It isn't Outlook that needs to be beat, it is Exchange. The client is the easy part (relatively speaking).

-matthew

Re:There will be competition for Exchange Server? (1)

dbIII (701233) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413928)

I'll take the above seriously just in case it wasn't a joke.

Try using email instead of the strangeness that is MS Exchange. I'm possibly biased becuase my experiences with MS Exchange were unpleasant and ridiculously time consuming and it was entirely unsuited to 24 hour operation in a small site with only one mail server (you have to shut it down to back up the mail!). A bare metal restore drill showed just how flakey and fragile the whole thing used to be and possibly still is. The sendmail config files are horrible but they look good next to weird registry hacks to get MS Exchange to do what it is told.

Re:There will be competition for Exchange Server? (1)

Zuke8675309 (470025) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414080)

Huh. We run Exchange 2003 for about 40 or so users on a single server. I've had to restore the mail store from backup once due to a hardware failure - nothing was lost and it was a fairly painless procedure. Also, online backups are a pretty easy task as well. Actually, the whole system runs rather smoothly for us with minimal administration.

Obviously, we have a pretty basic setup, but it sounds like you do too. Too bad you had a bad experience with Exchange in the past because I've found it to be pretty easy to use.

Re:There will be competition for Exchange Server? (1)

LibertineR (591918) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414228)

It wasnt a joke. Exchange does what it does very well. The problem is, too many people think you can go at Microsoft's enterprise tools with ease because they managed to master Windows. Exchange is a not a trivial tool, and your commments suggest you know little about it. If you really believe you have to bring down a server to back up the mail, you should just back away slowly and call someone who knows what they are doing.

No one familiar with Exchange needs a registry hack. Nobody.

But, your comments make my point for me, thanks.

IT will be sold on EBAY! (3, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413502)

2. ???
3. Profit!

This guy is smoking something good (4, Insightful)

strider44 (650833) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413508)

Ex MacOSX guys won't fuel Vista - Dell, HP, et al will. People won't even know that there's any alternative, that's why Microsoft will be making their billions. Bullshit that OpenSolaris will overtake Linux anytime soon, let alone within the next year. The open source zealots will never go for it, and a lot of people have too much invested in Linux. And how will the Cell processor totally dominate the next top computing list when it's not even worth a mention in the current top computing list?

He then goes on to reiterate much of what's been said every year but never come true, that is the parts that actually made sense. I'm surprised that he didn't say "2007 is the year for the Open Solaris desktop".

What a waste of time.

Re:This guy is smoking something good (1)

Odiseo70 (1027626) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414050)

People won't even know that there's any alternative, that's why Microsoft will be making their billions.

In fact, there are people around all over the world looking for alternatives. You know, there are countries with a very different economical environment than US, and when MS ask for a SO upgrade, in many cases the costs demands a quest for an alternative.

Not ex mac osx guys... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17414064)

he's saying vista basically is the same as the max osx interface, and the people who will get vista are morons because they hated it until MS decided to copy it.

But the other predictions, ya worthless.

What's with all this "2006 this" and "2007 that"? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413510)

Seriously? Yes, seriously.

Re:What's with all this "2006 this" and "2007 that (2, Funny)

Anomolous Cowturd (190524) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414262)

They're numbers we assign to years, a measure of time. For more info on this little-known phenomenom see Wikipedia's Year [wikipedia.org] entry.

The List and My Thoughts (0)

Bios_Hakr (68586) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413512)

>>Vista will make billions for Microsoft - driven by the warm embrace of those who hated the MacOS X interface when Microsoft didn't sell it;

It isn't about the interface; it's the apps. And it'll make billions because of OEMs. Likely MS will report every sale to an OEM as a full-price sale.

>>Itanium will continue on life support while Compaq, operating as HP, negotiates a way out with Intel;

Itanium will go on as long as corporate HQs demand Intel procs for their servers.

>>By the end of the year, the super computer listings will be entirely dominated by products built using IBM's cell processor -and the business applications performance benchmarks will be equally dominated by Sun's second generation CMT/SMP technologies.

I don't know enough about Cell to make a comment here. However, X86 has lost the MIPS war many times. It always remains dominant. Until someone comes up with a CPU virtualization system (Transmeta, where are you?), X86 will remain king.

>>By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognised as larger and more active than the Linux community -and every competing OS developer community except Microsoft's will have copied the key ideas including its organisational structure, the core provisions in the community development license, and Solaris specific technologies including ZFS and Dtrace.

Again, Sun is a name corporate trusts. If they have a virtualization layer for Office and a really good management system, they'll be welcomed with open arms. But I doubt it'll happen soon.

This should be titled... (1, Troll)

toadlife (301863) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413514)

"What Paul Murphy, resident ZDNet Sun Fanboy, hopes will happen in IT 2007"

Re:This should be titled... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413706)

Or Dvorak now in the witness protection program, assumes new identity and gets massive facial reconstructive surgery.

S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (5, Insightful)

rampant mac (561036) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413526)

"'By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.' Is 2007 the year of the OpenSolaris desktop?"

I could replace the word OpenSolaris with Linux. Or Mac OS X. Or BeOS. Or Amiga.

Face it, Windows is the defacto standard and will be for many, many years. Until businesses change (from running Windows) every other operating system ever created will be second fiddle to the Microsoft monopoly. You know what? Who cares? Do you think Porsche executives stay up late at night thinking "Jesus Christ, Ford has really got us by the balls. How the fuck are we going to compete againt the new Escort?"

I don't care about Microsoft and what they're doing. If it wasn't for their stranglehold on the computing industry, they'd be 10 years behind the technological curve. Natch. They ARE 10 years behind the curve. They just (currently) have the money right NOW to stay relevant.

It'll change. Maybe not now, but soon.

Re:S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (1)

alshithead (981606) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413582)

It's not that MS has the money to stay relevant. They have the market share to stay relevant. That may change in the future. The question is...how far in the future.

Re:S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (3, Insightful)

supabeast! (84658) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414102)

It's not that MS has the money to stay relevant. They have the market share to stay relevant. That may change in the future. The question is...how far in the future.
What Microsoft has are products that are relevant to the masses. Mac OS is not relevant to the masses because not everyone wants, can afford, or is willing to pay for, an Apple desktop. Solaris is not relevant to the masses because it's not pretty and a bother for a non-sysadmin to configure and maintain. Linux is not relevant to the masses because F/OSS designers are nerds creating software that's relevant to them.

Microsoft gets away with being mediocre because they target the hordes of similarly mediocre individuals who make up the human population. If an above-average competitor comes along at this point and targets those same masses, upsetting Microsoft will be easy; but right now I see no evidence that such an event is likely. Google is too nerdy to do it, IBM doesn't care about desktops anymore, it could only happen at Apple with Jobs gone and with Jobs gone Apple would crumble, and Sun is just too much of a mess.

Re:S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (1)

alshithead (981606) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414168)

I can't argue. Their products are their market share.

S.O.B.S (Same ol' B' shit) (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17414192)

"Microsoft gets away with being mediocre because they target the hordes of similarly mediocre individuals who make up the human population."

And yet you don't have a problem with taking a paycheck from any of those "mediocre" people, Mr "I'm better than everyone else".

Re:S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (1)

toadlife (301863) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413594)

They ARE 10 years behind the curve.
Can you elaborate on this please? How exactly is Microsoft "ten years behind the curve"?

S.O.G (Same ol' grandiose) (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413920)

I'd like to see a demonstration of this technology that's ten years in the future. All the OS's he mentioned are nice, but they didn't represent a technological level ten years in the future.

Re:S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (1)

jt2377 (933506) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413632)

"It'll change. Maybe not now, but soon." - same old shit

1999 the year of Linux desktop
2000 the year of Linux desktop
2001 the year of Linux desktop
2002 the year of Linux desktop
2003 the year of Linux desktop
2004 the year of Linux desktop
2005 the year of Linux desktop
2006 the year of Linux desktop...and so on but never happen.

beside crying, moaning, bitching and chanting about Microsoft monopoly...etc. Do you have anything to add that will make Linux gain more marketshare?

same old bullshit from OSS as well.

Re:S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (3, Insightful)

dhasenan (758719) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413736)

Year of the Linux desktop = 2005

The desktop tools are fully as useable as Microsoft's. More so, I'd say. Even GNOME is, with their habit of entirely removing everything that's unnecessary for more than 80% of the users.

The major remaining issues for Linux superiority are hardware support and games. I've got TuxRacer and Globulation 2, though, and set up my wireless card in three easy step (the other fifteen were fiendishly difficult).

After that, the remaining issues are Internet access and speed (Linux isn't good for slow connections), specific applications (if you have ten years' data for ARCview, you're staying with the platforms they support), and unfamiliarity with Linux.

Take a similar example: Apple produces a product that's more polished and better in many ways than Linux, better in most ways than Microsoft, and still has less than 10% market share. Why? Nothing technical, just economic and psychological.

Re:S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17414090)

Linux isn't good for slow connections

Come again? I've run a Fedora desktop with a 56k modem connection and it wasn't any worse than Windows on a similar connection. The only thing I'd imagine would be painful would be updating (which I didn't even attempt to do via the modem--I checked for updated packages once a week or so at work and brought them home on a USB stick) But it isn't as if trying to download Windows service packs over 56k is any better.

Re:S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (1)

Anonymous Crowhead (577505) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413832)

You were almost right. In reality it has been:

1999 the year of Linux desktop is two years away
2000 the year of Linux desktop is two years away
2001 the year of Linux desktop is two years away
2002 the year of Linux desktop is two years away
2003 the year of Linux desktop is two years away
2004 the year of Linux desktop is two years away
2005 the year of Linux desktop is two years away
2006 the year of Linux desktop is two years away

Re:S.O.S (Same ol' shit) (2, Insightful)

beoba (867477) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414056)

If Ford was able to arbitrarily patent the combustion engine, or force gas stations to only provide fuel that worked with Fords, then Porsche would care.

same old.. (0, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413530)

my predictions apple will buy google and the us army, and turn all into iPeople.

Re:same old.. (4, Funny)

Ingolfke (515826) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413608)

my predictions apple will buy google and the us army, and turn all into iPeople.

Actually, since Google is involved... that woudl be giPeople.

Re:same old.. (2, Funny)

earnest murderer (888716) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413774)

Actually, since Google is involved... that woudl be giPeople.

Drafting GI's? Nothing ever changes does it.

At least we'll be able to do a spotlight search on Google Earth for WMD's.

Prediction #11 (1)

Nom du Keyboard (633989) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413550)

Cell processor powering most of the world's super-computers

#11: The PS3 will remain in very short supply, and not come down in price anytime soon.

Re:Prediction #11 (1)

DrDitto (962751) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413790)

#12: Designers of Supercomputers will realize that the Cell is 10x slower when doing double-precision arithmatic (used by most scientific codes).

Complete Drivle (1, Funny)

meckardt (113120) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413564)

Everyone knows that there won't be any IT by the end of 2007, between Global Warming, Nuclear Winter, and the end of culture in America.

Re:Complete Drivle (1)

alshithead (981606) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413610)

I'm guessing you mean the end of civilization in America not culture, because even with the end of civilization in America I intend to stay cultured. My guns, dogs, and library will hopefully ensure that.

Re:Complete Drivle (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413640)

and the end of culture in America.

I'm confused. If there is an "end of culture in America", wouldn't that sort of imply that there is actually culture right now?

Re:Complete Drivle (1)

dhasenan (758719) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413754)

I've got a lovely Staphylococcus culture here...

The answer is obvious ... (1)

Marbleless (640965) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413652)

... we can counter global warming with nuclear winter!

Yay, the planet is saved ...... oh wait ....

Re:Complete Drivle (5, Funny)

swordgeek (112599) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414234)

Culture in America was officially declared dead on December 8, 1980. The actual time of death is unknown.

dream on (1)

oohshiny (998054) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413568)

By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognised as larger and more active than the Linux community -and every competing OS developer community except Microsoft's will have copied the key ideas including its organisational structure

Yeah, because Sun's "organizational structures" for open source projects have been such huge successes, right?

the core provisions in the community development license

Oh, Sun loves software licenses that lets big companies like them take advantage of open source developers to improve their proprietary products; they have stated as such publicly. Fortunately, the direction that open source licenses are going is the opposite.

and Solaris specific technologies including ZFS and Dtrace.

Linux already has tracing technologies and it has multiple excellent file systems, as well as a roadmap for ext4. Maybe ZFS and DTrace will have some small influence on their evolution, but for the most part, Linux will go its own way there.

My prediction: OpenSolaris is going to be a dud.

Re:dream on (5, Insightful)

cpuh0g (839926) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413654)

and Solaris specific technologies including ZFS and Dtrace. Linux already has tracing technologies and it has multiple excellent file systems, as well as a roadmap for ext4. Maybe ZFS and DTrace will have some small influence on their evolution, but for the most part, Linux will go its own way there. My prediction: OpenSolaris is going to be a dud.

Get real - Linux tracing capabilities are like primitive caveman tools compared to DTrace. Just because something wasn't developed by the "Linux community" (whatever the hell that means) doesn't mean it is worthless. ZFS is a major evolutionary step forward for file systems. Again, just because it wasn't born and raised as a sourceforge project doesn't mean it must be crap. Take off the blinders, zealot. Great technology knows no religion, it can come from anywhere. Microsoft, Sun, Oracle, et al, are not staffed by idiots (well, at least not in the engineering ranks). Just because they work for "the man" doesn't make their contributions to the field of software any less relevant or useful. Judge the tools by their merits, ignore the religion.

Whether or not OpenSolaris "takes over" in 2007 remains to be seen, but to dismiss the contributions of Sun's engineers (or Microsoft's for that matter) is to ignore history and to ignore some truly innovative contributions to the field.

Try Leopard for ZFS (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413738)

Most people don't care as much about open source as they do about getting work done in the short term.

I understand ZFS will ship with MacOSX Leopard. MacOSX market share will be bigger than OpenSolaris in 2007.

Re:dream on (0)

oohshiny (998054) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414226)

Linux [...] capabilities are like primitive caveman tools compared to [...]

Yes, that's the UNIX philosophy.

but to dismiss the contributions of Sun's engineers (or Microsoft's for that matter) is to ignore history and to ignore some truly innovative contributions to the field.

Before UNIX, there was a system called Multics. A big company invested lots of money in it, it had lots of really advanced features, and a lot of smart people contributed to it. It's also dead. Sun and Microsoft are making the same mistake the designers of Multics made. These people aren't "innovative", they are fools that are repeating decades-old mistakes.

Linux will provide those bits of functionality of ZFS and DTrace that users actually need, and it will do so in the incremental and minimalist way typical of traditional UNIX designs.

I don't know yet what the UNIX-style equivalent of ZFS and DTrace will be, but it's pretty clear that it will look very different from ZFS and DTrace.

Re:dream on (1)

keeboo (724305) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414260)

Great technology knows no religion, it can come from anywhere. Microsoft, Sun, Oracle, et al

I mostly agree with you but... Microsoft?
C'mon, what great technology came from Microsoft? (the ones they bought don't count)

Put the crack pipe down. (3, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413884)

Linux has no good filesystems. You are stuck trying to pick which pig has the nicest lipstick on. And the two nicest made up pigs are both from corporations giving up their unixes and opening their filesystems up. If not for IBM and SGI, linux still would have no usable filesystems at all.

And linux has nothing that in any way comes anywhere even close to dtrace. I know its pretty standard for gnubies to not know anything besides linux, and speak of linux's greatness out of ignorance, but go read up on dtrace before spewing bullshit.

Everything about linux is a half dozen not quite good enough "solutions" that are miles behind solaris's offerings. From filesystems to virtualization, from threads to system administration tools, solaris blows linux away on every front.

You are right about one thing though. Linux will go its own way all right. As always, failing to learn anything from the vastly superior operating systems it pathetically fails to copy.

Re:Put the crack pipe down. (0, Flamebait)

AmigaBen (629594) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414000)

I can't imagine why you posted as Anonymous Coward...

Re:dream on (1)

swordgeek (112599) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414218)

Tell me, can you sit down when you talk out of your ass?

"Yeah, because Sun's "organizational structures" for open source projects have been such huge successes, right?"

Yep. Ever hear of NFS? NIS?
More to the point, take a look at the OpenSolaris community and tell me what's wrong with the organisational structure. It's very similar to the standard open-source structure, except that it addresses some of the problems that have cropped up in that model (fragmentation, dead projects).

I'm not even going to address your fairy-dust predictions about licenses. Entertaining though.

"Linux already has tracing technologies and it has multiple excellent file systems"

Linux built-in tracing is a poor cousin to Unix truss. Such specialised projects as LTT provide significant advancement, but nothing even close to what Dtrace provides. Complete system probes are something completely new in the world of computing, with the possible exception of some _very_ esoteric realtime systems. This is actually big news, and Linux should be absorbing it, rather than sneering. Ditto for ZFS. Even with some of its features not yet implemented in release code, it is the first significant filesystem mindset shift to happen in decades. Linux' "multiple excellent file systems" are nothing special--the best of them work acceptably, but that's it. ZFS will transform small-storage computing in a few years.

OpenSolaris isn't going to be a dud because Solaris10 is already a hit, and the serious opensource community (i.e., the programmers and not the whiners) are already working on OpenSolaris--often in parallel with other OSes.

Re:dream on (2, Insightful)

misleb (129952) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414252)

Linux already has tracing technologies and it has multiple excellent file systems, as well as a roadmap for ext4. Maybe ZFS and DTrace will have some small influence on their evolution, but for the most part, Linux will go its own way there.


What Linux already has is mindshare. It is a "good enough" Microsoft alternative that works now. Sure, DTrace is good. Great, even. But most people wouldn't know how to take advantage of it. Most people putting together a mail server or web server simply don't need it. And as for ZFS... well that just seems like overkill for most situations. I'm sure it is awesome if you really need it, but when ext3/ufs are perfectly adequate for 95% of use cases, who cares?

Anyone who thinks OpenSolaris is going to be the next Linux because it has a few cool tools needs to realize that brands don't make it on technical merits alone. It is much more complicated than that.

Personally, I don't know ANYONE who is running OpenSolaris as a production server. To suggest that it will overtake Linux in 2007 is just ridiculous. Maybe it will someday, I can't see that far ahead, but I would bet a lot of money that it won't happen in 2007.

-matthew

What to say? (5, Insightful)

symbolset (646467) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413586)

Somebody find this guy a cluestick and beat him with it.

  1. Microsoft will make billions on vista. duh.
  2. Itanic is still dead. Wow. What a revelation.
  3. Cell takes over HPC. Not gonna happen. See GPGPU for why.
  4. Slowaris wins out over linux. Literally when pigs fly.

How many trite phrases can you fit in one blog post? "structural convergence" "Web 2" "SOA" "Googlemania" "YouTube"

OK, Here's my set of predictions.

  1. Lots of folks will make money -- in old realiable and new creative ways. Some of them will go to jail for it eventually. Most will not.
  2. Transcoding video is the killer app for multicore and beyond. The studios aren't coming to market fast enough to deliver the universally playable content that users want, and users are ready to pay thousands for a pc that converts the media they already have.
  3. Linux and OSX will continue to take share from the Borg, slowly. More slowly than they should.
  4. Vista will be revealed to be as buggy and spyware prone as every other MS OS, for the same reason -- it's developed by the same braindamaged marketdroids who brought us all the others. Microsoft is lucky most of us have no other choice.
  5. A great many flackalysts will comment on the invincibility of Vista, Microsoft, IBM, Sun and every other major vendor, and their paid commentary is worth exactly what the company's glossy fliers are -- not even useful as toilet paper.
  6. The winner in the Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD wars will be... Monitor makers. Your powerpoint never looked so lovely as it does in 1080p.

Don't like my list? You do better.

Re:What to say? (1)

alshithead (981606) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413646)

You have set the measure for the cluestick. Follow the money! That's where things will go.

Re:What to say? (1)

Chainsaw Karate (869210) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413704)

Transcoding video the killer app for multicore? Most people don't even know what transcoding means. I don't see many people buying into multicore processors for this purpose. I honestly don't see any "killer app" on the horizon for 4+ core processors in home PCs. The only thing I can think of is high-definition video, but GPUs will always be able to do that better anyway. As far as Cell vs. GPGPU in future supercomputers. . . IBM has a very compelling roadmap for Cell. It includes double-precision FP calculations, insane clockspeeds, and of course lots more cores. Remember that STI want to put Cell in EVERYTHING: HDTVs, DVD players, etc. I believe it's too early to predict which direction supercomputers will take in 2007. I'm definitely excited to find out!

Re:What to say? (1)

GigsVT (208848) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413770)

They don't need to know. Most people know how to rip a CD and make mp3s, it's the same thing. They just click a few times and the thing does it. All they know is that their dual core does it twice as fast.

Re:What to say? (1)

symbolset (646467) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413792)

GPGPU vs Cell: Right now you can buy off the shelf a pair of GPGPU cards that slot into one motherboard. That gives you 1024 math units, at least six GPU units, and the whole thing drives off of one single, dual or quad-core cpu, that fits in 4u. Sure they don't do dual precision yet, but that requirement is not universal. IBM may have some good stuff with the Cell, but it won't be 2007 when they begin to compete with that, and who knows what's in the graphics card manufacturers pipeline? They're a typically closed-mouth bunch.

Transcoding: You're right most people don't know the word. You are quite wrong that they don't want it. When I show someone a commercial DVD playing on my Treo phone they squeal with delight. It's what closes the ring of having content and not being able to play it when and where you want. MythTV is a killer program, and when you can put the video into the format you want, suddenly you have the power to enjoy what you paid for in new ways. People want it desperately. Also, Hi-def monitors were flying off the shelves of every store I went to this year. Consumers are going to want content, and the DRM is a roadblock people are willing to learn some technology to get over.

Re:What to say? (1)

jg21 (677801) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413752)

>>Don't like my list? You do better.

There are pretty good lists here [javadevelo...ournal.com] , too...including Bill Dudney's:

AJAX will continue to gain momentum as folks continue to have the epiphany that Web 1.0 UI is not good for users.
Overuse of the technology will be a real problem.
JSF will finally start to become a de facto as well as actual standard due to its ease of integration with AJAX.
Java Persistence API will bring relational object mapping to the long tail of the market.

Re:What to say? (1)

GigsVT (208848) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413778)

Oh a guy on javadevelopersjournal.com thinks Java is the next big thing. Stop the presses!

Congratulations! (1)

symbolset (646467) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413964)

Your link wins the award for most annoying popover add _ever_.

I can't believe I clicked it.

AJAX rocks. It won't cure cancer, though.

Java probably will take off some in noughtseven.

Re:What to say? (1)

whoever57 (658626) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413990)

# Slowaris wins out over linux. Literally when pigs fly.
Paul Murphy is a well known anti-Linux troll, as evidenced by his blog. [zdnet.com] For more examples, use google [google.com]

Re:What to say? (2, Informative)

David Greene (463) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414094)

Cell takes over HPC. Not gonna happen. See GPGPU for why.

You're both wrong. Or more precisely, you're both wrong in the wider scope of "HPC." HPC is much more than machoflops. Cell may indeed dominate the Top 500 in 2007, but that's a useless list for people doing serious supercomputing work. It's one datapoint on a very complex computational surface.

Cell and GPGPU will remain niche technologies for one very simple reason: they're insanely difficult to program. HPC users are less and less willing to modify applications to take advantage of arcane technology. The HPC winners will be the companies with a strong software component. That may not happen in 2007, but it will happen by 2010. Personally, I'm rather excited by SSE4 because it seems that Intel is finally starting to understand the kinds of operations compilers want to use. It's not enough yet, but it's in the right direction.

Anybody else have the feeling? (3, Insightful)

Oddster (628633) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413626)

An anonymous reader writes
ZDNet's Paul Murphy


Anybody else have the feeling that the submitter is actually Paul Murphy?

Seems like Zonk has broken into the New Years champagne a bit early, and the standard for front-page stories went from infinitesimal to nil.

OpenSolaris vs. Linux (-1)

SuperBanana (662181) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413638)

Featured among the completely predictable, OpenSolaris overtaking Linux is apparently inevitable within one year

Wouldn't surprise me. Linux on a kernel level seems mired in a bog of endless debate and egos, and on a distribution level- well, everyone just goes and rolls their own instead of helping make an existing one better.

Look at how many half-baked virtualization models there are for Linux- and none of them are as powerful as what Solaris has. SATA support took years to come up to snuff and it's still half-baked. Recent 2.6 kernels wouldn't even boot on some AM2 systems.

Likewise for poor filesystems...Solaris ZFS, even if it can't change pool types (ie, you can't go from a pair of mirrored drives to a triplet of RAID-5 like drives) solves problems no other linux filesystem has. Namely, it scrubs the disk, not just testing readability but correctness (via checksums), and regularly walks its own filesystem structure and metadata checking for inconsistencies.

Meanwhile, the best Linux has to offer are filesystems borrowed from others (XFS), grossly unreliable (ReiserFS), or based off ten year old filesystem concepts/technology (ext3.)

Re:OpenSolaris vs. Linux (1)

Junta (36770) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413748)

OpenSolaris hasn't been big enough to experience fragmentation yet, so you can't judge how well OpenSolaris will hold up at scale of development community, and from my work with it, for it to be anything close to edging out linux, it has a way to go in the day-to-day stuff that *needs* a larger community. When it has a large community and *still* doesn't get into debates and doesn't have forks, let me know. It's interesting to note that in spite of the well-publicized debates and forks which all pull from the same tree and get merged back in over time, linux does a pretty damned good job regardless of the underlying debates...

Look at how many half-baked virtualization models there are for Linux-
At last look, there was the commercial VMWare (which does what it is intended damn well), the popular Xen (which also does a spectacular job), and the still infant one they folded in. The first two are far from half-balked.

SATA support took years to come up to snuff and it's still half-baked. Recent 2.6 kernels wouldn't even boot on some AM2 systems.
I *know* from personal experience that OpenSolaris today can't possibly criticize another platform for inadequate hardware support. Half the hardware on the system I tried OpenSolaris on as of Nevada build 54 didn't have drivers yet, but all of it is supported in linux. SATA support is working fine on *thousands* of linux boxes I support, and just because some kernel not in a distribution didn't boot on some system, doesn't mean linux has poor support for AM2 platform systems.

Likewise for poor filesystems...Solaris ZFS, even if it can't change pool types (ie, you can't go from a pair of mirrored drives to a triplet of RAID-5 like drives) solves problems no other linux filesystem has.
I will give that ZFS has solved problems no other *filesystem* has, but there are non-filesystem solutions that are less effective/efficient than the ZFS way, but still viable, more on that later.

Namely, it scrubs the disk, not just testing readability but correctness (via checksums), and regularly walks its own filesystem structure and metadata checking for inconsistencies.
I like the concept, but uber-paranoia can be implemented elsewhere to be fair, and serious storage vendors are so paranoid at the low level that no error should propagate to that layer if you have a good provider. I have seen early level systems and crappy generics that have silent data corruption, but never ever have seen a shiplevel server from a tier one vendor or storage subsystem have silent data corruption.

XFS is interesting, but if you want to criticize can be ignored, ReiserFS is a fair thing to complain about, but I tend to ignore that. Now a fair comparison would not be ext3 to ZFS, but ext3 to UFS. UFS and ext3 both prove ten year old concepts aren't necessarily bad things.

OpenSolaris has Zones/BrandZ, ZFS, and DTrace which are interesting, though I think Zones/BrandZ and DTrace are sufficiently compelling to convert, and ZFS is certainly appealing, but admittedly harder and less efficient methodologies can be done so that ZFS isn't an absolute must-have (i.e. block-level approaches to snapshotting and software raid, hardlinks/rsync for snapshotting, volume managers that understand how to grow filesystems). ZFS does have high-layer checksumming even above doing all those things better than anyone else on the market today, but a good storage vendor is so paranoid at the lower levels that the check becomes redundant.

Re:OpenSolaris vs. Linux (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413758)

Meanwhile, the best Linux has to offer are filesystems borrowed from others (XFS), grossly unreliable (ReiserFS), or based off ten year old filesystem concepts/technology (ext3.) Dude, throw your PC out the window, it's based on 10-year-old technology!

Re:OpenSolaris vs. Linux (0, Troll)

BrainInAJar (584756) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413762)

not to mention it's 3 times faster [thrallingpenguin.com] on some workloads, and at least 60% faster on others (mysql), all the while being more reliable and less full of security holes ("hello race condition, nice to meet you") [sun.com]

Linux is the Windows of UNIX... about time we all just jump off that crap kernel

Re:OpenSolaris vs. Linux (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413904)

Yeah, I can show you at least 10 other benchmarks (including SPEC ones) where Linux is 10 times faster than Solaris. Go look at Sun's bug database for Solaris - there exist 100s of bugs where Linux is said to be faster and they are unfixed since circa 1999.

XML (1)

shawn443 (882648) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413678)

XML still won't get the respect it deserves. One mass ritualistic suicide/orgy later in the googleplex, all google secrets are willed into the public domain thereby creating the biggest sexual open source squirt in history. In the year 2000.

Re:XML (4, Insightful)

GigsVT (208848) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413710)

What? XML gets way too much "respect" by all the wrong people.

XML was designed for one thing, blind data interchange. That's it. Not config files, not GUI descriptions, not anything to do with databases. Get over it. Everything else is hype created by idiots that make money selling ads in magazines and on web sites.

Re:XML (1)

shawn443 (882648) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413898)

XML was designed for one thing, blind data interchange. That's it.
Which is why if I could eat any programing language's pussy, it would be that XML slut. Hopefully PERL the sister would join in. I love those bitches.

Tried OpenSolaris... (5, Interesting)

Junta (36770) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413680)

Specifically Nevada build 54 and Nexenta alpha 5. They have some interesting technologies (specificaly ZFS, which is interesting, and Zones, which is a bit lower overhead than virtualization, but not as flexible (everything still goes through the Solaris kernel)). Nexenta I honestly thought was a cool concept, and executed quite well, Debian package management and GNU software that is clearly better than some of the Sun basic utilities (and much less Java inclined...), offering the benefits that Solaris does have to offer...

Anyway, from my working with it, I know the OpenSolaris is certainly full of themselves, and some denial, but I don't think they can live up to their own expectations. For example, any complaint or bug frequently got met with 'at least you aren't running linux!'. They trashed on lack of documentation in linux while I struggled to find some documentation on their stuff that seemed unwritten. They'd pick up a decade-old howto and say 'this is how linux requires you do it, versus our not-yet released way, see how crappy linux is'. When people talked about how woefully (understandably) incomplete their ACPI and suspend support was, they pointed at linux and said 'linux acpi support hardly works at all, so don't expect too much' despite the reality of 3 out of 3 generic motherboards I've tried worked splendidly with linux acpi. My laptop despite being one of their officially tested still doesn't have clock modulation and their acpi parser barfs on the DSDT that nothing else (not even intel's compiler) even warns on. People discussing panics/hangs are met with 'at least it doesn't crash as much as linux', despite evidence to the contrary. They are used to a closed, proprietary world of a select set of hardware and the open world if they make any headway in is going to give them quite the wake up call. They talk about how much better their driver support is, despite the glaring lack of drivers. Largely their efforts in expanding that involve porting drivers from the BSD projects.

Anyway, their current implementation does admittedly seem adequate for most server type activities if the hardware is supported. I could see a lot of hardware vendors happy about a system with a stable binary interface for drivers that doesn't require rebuilds for every uname -r, but hardware vendors face the market realities and put up with the pain if they want to play in the server space. I understand the hassle, but linux making a PITA for hardware vendors have given us a lot more driver source than we could have hoped for. For the market, probably the single best card they have is ZFS. They have done a good job of consolidating volume management, software raid, filesystem, stuff like snapshots, and paranoia of checksumming everywhere into a single implementation. In doing so they have done things more efficiently (such as RAID format on disk leveraging filesystem layer knowledge for better performance), and trustworthy (a controller failing to report data corruption is detected at a higher level). ZFS is impressive, and that was/is the one thing that makes me really want the rest of the platform to be usable for me day to day.

DTrace is much hyped, and very useful in the hands of good developers and good administrators, but I don't see administrators at large making use of it enough to deliver on the hopes Sun sets up for it.

Zoning is a nice logical extension from simple chrooting which is more comprehensive, and more efficient than the other extreme of virtualization, theoretically. However, with virtualization being ubiquitous and most of the market accepting the ever-reducing overhead for the flexibility, I don't know if Zones are going to excite anyone that much. The BrandZ extension of the metaphor gives it some flexibility, but again their Linux profile still doesn't run linux things just right, and a linux vm with the linux kernel already will do so today.

So you have a platform that probably won't need to be as successful as linux had to be in order for hardware vendors to support it, with ZFS, DTrace, and Zones, but one that is woefully behind today in hardware support and if you seriously want to run it, you better buy from Sun...

I don't see the market as it is embracing OpenSolaris/Solaris in the next year that much more. I used to be a Solaris admin full time and recognize that there is enough different that a basic admin has to be re-taught a bit to be decent, and receive a lot of training to use the features effectively, and training is expensive. Also, while you have RedHat, Novell/Microsoft, IBM, HP, Dell, and the list goes on in terms of tier one linux support, on the OpenSolaris half you basically have sun. OpenSolaris was probably the best thing to happen to Nexenta who stands to become a bigger player through Debian-ifying OpenSolaris, but the market sees OpenSolaris as coming from a competitor and not bringing *that* much to the table...

Re:Tried OpenSolaris... (4, Interesting)

swordgeek (112599) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414172)

OK, I'm a hardcore, fulltime, Solaris admin. I've been heavily involved in rolling out Solaris 10 to the production systems at a major oil corporation. In other words, I'm a bit biased. :-)

Be that as it may, let me make a few comments.

1) Nevada is development code, not release. If there aren't bugs in your dev. code, then you're either the finest programmer since about 1960, or you're not doing anything.
2) OpenSolaris in general is not the place to go for release code; It's the community work, warts and all. If you want a production OS, you use Solaris10.
3) Having said that, let me also add that Solaris10 is documented. Heavily. Coherently. Completely. HPUX and AIX are close, Linux isn't even an also-ran in the documentation realm.

So let me talk about some of the good and bad we're seeing with Solaris10 in the real world.

Let me start by stating that dtrace rocks. Most admins don't write scripts in it, as you suspect--however, they do download them from programmers who give back to the community. Similarly, zones rock too--companies are using them to compartmentalise their environments (for example: one database instance per zone), which makes migration between machines a trivial process. BrandZ is an interesting offshoot, but is likely to be less important for users than for developers.

Hardware support (specifically non-Sun, x86/x64) hardware support is amazing. Really, Solaris will work on anything!!!

And if you believe that, I have a bridge to sell you.

OK, let's come clean. Hardware support is rapidly um... sucking less. It's still nowhere close to the Linux ballpark, and probably won't be for at least three years. That's not surprising from a company that continually tried to kill off their X86 offering for several years, before rather suddenly committing to it. Let me come back to this in a moment.

I'll readily admit that the anti-Linux sentiment is very strong in the (Open)Solaris world, but you should understand where some of the frustration comes from. Daily (hourly!), the various newsgroups and discussion forums receive posts that come across as, "I can do THIS in Linux, but I can't in Solaris. Why does Solaris suck so badly?!" The answer is usually that Linux has some nonstandard (and more than occasionally undocumented) extensions to standard Unix tools. In other words, this 'thing' will not work in Irix, AIX, HP-UX, *BSD, OSF/1, OS X, or any other Unix variant--only in Linux. Furthermore, if that behaviour is really necessary (it rarely is), then the tool is probably available as a source or binary download to anyone interested.

I can't comment on ACPI, other than to state that I have never used a computer for any length of time, running any OS, that did power management properly. That includes Linux (RHEL3 and older), Windows (XP and earlier), or Solaris (10, etc.)

Don't get me wrong here--Solaris on commodity hardware still has a ways to go. However, Solaris on Sun hardware (either SPARC or X64) is the best thing going in computing right now. For those two reasons, OpenSolaris really does have the potential to take the world by storm next year. The community has been presented with both a challenge (make this a true commodity-hardware OS), and a clear goal (behaving like Solaris10 on Sun gear). Furthermore, since Sun is feeding contributions back from OpenSolaris into Solaris, the 'official' OS will continue to get better.

In other words, the OpenSolaris community will thrive because there's an intriguing challenge facing them, and a clear reward as a result.

OpenSolaris? Really? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17413698)

I honestly don't really care which flavour of unix is running my KDE desktop, so long as it's stable and runs my hardware and software. OpenSolaris would have to be somehow massively better than Linux for it to justify replacing my existing installs - which is necessary for it to be dominant within a year. I've heard it has advantages in some areas, but I'm not really interested in stuff like dtrace or ZFS. Does it come with a free candy bar or something?

He probably meant developer community, but if anything, I'd have thought that implementing the cool Solaris stuff in Linux would get those boys more excited than the thought of jumping ship.

Re:OpenSolaris? Really? (1)

abigor (540274) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413830)

Not to be rude, but no one cares about your (or my, for that matter - I really like KDE a lot) desktop. Linux is known as a server OS in the corporate world, period, and that's what OpenSolaris will supposedly replace. Who knows. But the desktop "market" is absolutely fringe by comparison, and I don't really think it's on anybody's radar aside from a few experimenters and cash-strapped early adopters.

Ummmm yeah.... (4, Insightful)

Lumpy (12016) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413712)

As a solaris guy from way back I say.... not!

Solaris is great, but if you want a FREE unix BSD is your ticket. Hell I even run it on some older Sparc 5 boxes in the basement... Faster and easier than solaris because of it being 100% open.

As for everything else.... nope... IT in 2007 will look 100% like IT in 2006. XP on the desktop in every competent Corperation, not much changes anywhere else.

Change = expense.

Thanks Captain Obvious (1)

carbona (119666) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413734)

So Vista will make billions? Really? With all of their OEM arrangements, this is a foregone conclusion. How is this a "prediction?"

As for OpenSolaris and Linux? Uh... OK.

Re:Thanks Captain Obvious (2, Interesting)

pete6677 (681676) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413890)

Vista will make billions. XP would continue to make billions if Vista were never created. Considering how little new features Vista introduces, its development has been a complete waste. Nobody will shell out the money to "upgrade" to it. They'll only spend money that would otherwise have been spent on XP. I don't know the business term to describe this, but if a new product only cannibalizes sales of an existing product and doesn't bring in new sales, whatever money was spent developing it was completely wasted.

The world will END! (1)

epp_b (944299) | more than 7 years ago | (#17413888)

Internal clocks will freeze! Database servers will become unusable! Power grids will grind to a halt! Time as we know it will cease!!

...what? Oh, that's 2037 [wikipedia.org] . Never mind, carry on.

My BOLD Predictions! (4, Funny)

Nova Express (100383) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414004)

1. Apple will release several cool new products.
2. A Windows security hole will be discovered.
3. Internet use will increase.
4. Zune will not overtake the iPod.
5. The prices of hard drives and DRAM will continue to fall.
6. The circulation of print newspapers will continue to decline.
7. Interest groups will raise a stink over violence in video games.
8. A major technology company will introduce a new form of DRM...which will fail miserably.
9. The next version of Mac OS X will be visually and technically superior to Windows Vista.
10. Duke Nukem Forever will not be released.

I know I'm going out on a limb here, but trust me. I'm a science fiction writer. I can see the future!

Predictions repository (4, Interesting)

alcohollins (64804) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414042)

Two of Paul's more interesting predictions were placed on Who's Wrong [whoswrong.com] .

Interesting site for viewing predictions from folks.

I love my solaris express (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17414044)

But the idea that OS is going to "overtake" linux any time soon is batshit insane.

Yea, and I'll win my ex back... (2, Insightful)

KZigurs (638781) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414048)

Crackpot.

1) Billions off vista? Yeah, right. Public beta is expected to start at the end of January, turnaround to the market isn't THAT fast (remember NT4 SP3? Remember W2000 SP4? Remember Windows XP SP1?)

2) Itanium?

3) Except for the fact that SUPERcomputers are not specced, ordered and build overnight, more like 18-24 month timeframe for rollout and then some for full capacity if we are talking about serious ones. Also CELL is not the answer, ask Cray.

4) Assuming that ___OPEN!!! IT'S OPEN NOW___ Solaris actually manages to get any exposure at all this is absolutely unlikely to happen in an envorement that is supercharged with egos and religious evangelists/fanatics that spend their lives defending their indentation style or plan source control system migration for 18 months ahead.

Of course we could be had - last three paragraphs hives off a hint that this could be a very ultrasubtle attempt at humor. In a failed way of sense.

In short - most stupid article seen on /. within last month. I just felt obliged to comment.

Another list... (4, Insightful)

Viceroy Potatohead (954845) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414082)

Ugh. A couple of other predictions for 2007:

1. Entertainment writers will spend the last week of 2007 wracking their brains for meaningless, top-ten-list, fluff pieces in order to receive their next paychecks.

2. The apparent MS astroturfing campaign will continue on /. unabated.

3. Apologists for the upcoming Vista horrorshow will continue to denounce MS critics as zealots.

4. A new branch of mathematics (VERIZONMATH) will dominate industry calculations, leading to much hijinx, and ultimately, total economic collapse.

5. Richard Stallman will learn to levitate, leading to much hijinx, and ultimately, total economic collapse.

Huh? (2, Interesting)

ScrewMaster (602015) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414134)

By the end of the year the OpenSolaris community will be widely recognized as larger and more active than the Linux community.

To quote Lewis Black: "where can one find a drug that would make one so delusional." The Linux community, I'm sorry to inform him, is much larger and more active than he apparently understands. That's because it encompasses tens of thousands of products and technologies well beyond the server and desktop markets, which aren't even the biggest market so far as Linux usage is concerned.

Sun? (2, Informative)

Animats (122034) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414182)

Sun is going to have an impact on anything? Huh? Sun is imploding. Anybody want to buy their Fremont campus? It's empty.

What else is he expecting, a comeback of SGI?

Move along (4, Insightful)

tacocat (527354) | more than 7 years ago | (#17414216)

This ZDNet guy is an idiot in search of an audience. Move along, there's nothing to see here other than some pathetic dude trying to keep his ad-clicks up.

I didn't have to read more than OpenSolaris. Overtaking Linux? Yeah right. Even if it does happen it sure has heck won't be in 12 months time.

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