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Wild Predictions for a Wired 2007

Zonk posted more than 7 years ago | from the not-that-wild dept.

The Internet 227

An anonymous reader writes "Wired has put up its predictions for the coming year, in technology, internet, and entertainment news. Despite their claim that they are 'wild' predictions, a lot of them make some sense. Some of their calls: 'Google Stock Hits $1,000 per Share. Internet Traffic Doubles to 5,000 petabits per day by the end of 2007. And 80 percent of it is peer-to-peer file sharing, mostly Skype video and BitTorrent. BitTorrent on TiVo: Speaking of, digital video recorders get BitTorrent baked in, bringing internet video to the living room. Spam Doubles: No-brainer -- but no one cares because we're all using IM, especially at work. Second Life Ends a Life: Skullduggery in Second Life -- probably digital adultery -- ends in a real-life murder. Year o' the Laptop: Half of all new computers sold in 2007 will be laptops and 20 percent of those will be Apple's MacBooks." What do you folks think? How many will Wired have called correctly by the end of the year?

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Wild Predictions (0, Offtopic)

Biggest Banana Tree (980484) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431866)

Vista fails

HAH (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432200)

Vista fails
You call that a prediction? I call that a fact of life.

Beatles back catalogue... (2, Funny)

advocate_one (662832) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431868)

The entire Beatles catalog is licensed exclusively to iTunes for a year.

Jacko getting short of cash again???

Re:Beatles back catalogue... (4, Funny)

TheBiGW (982686) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432258)

I guess I'll have to buy the White album again

One fix (4, Insightful)

SnarfQuest (469614) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431872)

Internet Traffic Doubles to 5,000 petabits per day by the end of 2007. And 80 percent of it is peer-to-peer file sharing, mostly Skype video and BitTorrent.

Change that "spam", and then I'd believe it.

Re:One fix (3, Interesting)

Salvance (1014001) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432084)

There's a lot that's either just so blatantly obvious or lame that it's hard to believe they consider these "wild". I'd hate to see Wired's parties ... To try to be a little more "wild" with predictions, here are mine ... I'll bet at least one pans out:
  1. Gootube is sued by a consortium of Music Publishers, and caves hard to copyright protections
  2. RIAA creates their own music sharing program cloaked as an offshore company, then gathers IPs and sues thousands of file sharers
  3. Steve Jobs will step down amidst some scandal, either stock options or due to random trysts with Apple interns
  4. The OLPC project will be featured on Sesame Street, and become the hot holiday product of 2007 for small children
  5. Yahoo will make at least 2 ridiculously overpriced purchases, at least one will either be Facebook, or a floating dirigible high over Texas (similar to the banana over Texas [neatorama.com] ... which surprisingly is a real project)

Re:One fix (1)

truthsearch (249536) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432170)

1. Possible, but I think Google is perceived to be so influential that the RIAA/MPAA will actually want to work with them (while still threatening to sue).
2. They already gather IPs and sue. No need for a cloaked company.
3. My bet would be Jobs made sure to stay clean. The problems are mostly with past execs, not himself.
4. Sesame Street doesn't feature products.
5. This one is probable. Yahoo is definitely concerned with becoming stale and is constantly looking to buy things ups. They'll make some uber-purchases, pick up headlines, and hope their stock goes up.

Re:One fix (1)

Ingolfke (515826) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432908)

How often do you steal from Mark Cuban? Go Suns!

First (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17431874)

Post

Re:First (1)

SQLGuru (980662) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431982)

Internet Traffic Doubles to 5,000 petabits per day by the end of 2007. And 80 percent of it is peer-to-peer file sharing, mostly Skype video and BitTorrent.


How many petabits are wasted on "Frist Psot" posts one wonders......

Layne

Wired predictions (3, Funny)

Paradoks (711398) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431882)

Ah, Wired wildly predicting things; it's as if we've never left 1994, much less 2006. Bring on the memories.

Re:Wired predictions (4, Funny)

Rob T Firefly (844560) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432158)

Ah, Wired wildly predicting things; it's as if we've never left 1994, much less 2006. Bring on the memories.
But they're doing it in only one or two fonts per page now, written in mostly non-fluorescent ink. Progress!

Re:Wired predictions (1)

east coast (590680) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432212)

I will say, IMHO, that Wired is a big let down.

I remember when it was first announced I thought it was going to be kick ass until I read it and found that it was somewhere between a lame Omni (which isn't saying much) and a geeky Maxim.

Pop culture's attempt at try to make technology seem hip... great.

Meanwhile all the screaming fanbois they have on stock really kills any chance for progressive writing.

Yawn...

Re:Wired predictions (2, Interesting)

Andy Dodd (701) | more than 7 years ago | (#17433078)

I find it amusing that at least one of their "predictions" came true in even better form years ago.

"Implantable contact lenses" - why implant something when you can just fix the cornea itself? I had LASIK performed five years ago, and it wasn't even that new then. It has improved even more in the past five years too. Corneal implants for those with cataracts have existed for even longer.

Wired is a contra indicator (2, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17431884)

So many social revolutions seen through the lens of that San Francisco circle jerk of media. So many people lead to the slaughter of the bubble by these losers. And someone at wired must work for Second Life because they've been over-hyping that non-event forever.

Re:Wired is a contra indicator (3, Insightful)

Rachel Lucid (964267) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431926)

Second Life is catching on as more computers are able to handle 3D-Rendering. A good friend of mine who'll be working at Google shortly got completely hooked on it a couple months ago and won't shut up about it now.

So, sure, I'll buy the whole second-life prediction.

Re:Wired is a contra indicator (3, Informative)

truthsearch (249536) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432070)

More and more people are trying second life. But the retention rate is extremely low. A fair percentage of daily users are only trying to make money. The vast majority of people check it out, don't see anything very interesting, and leave.

I gave it a fair shot. I logged on just about every day for three weeks. I explored and explored and explored. I found no reason to stick around.

Low retention rates but.... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432162)

.. on the other hand the anal retention level for those that do stay is off the scale

Re:Wired is a contra indicator (1)

advocate_one (662832) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432626)

second life... just like The Sims... but boring as fsck and filled with saddoes...

Re:Wired is a contra indicator (1)

ameoba (173803) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432050)

Have you ever played Second Life?

Neither have I but the people I know that play it are -exactly- the type that would get wrapped up in a virtual world, commit adultery & then kill as a result of it.

Re:Wired is a contra indicator (2, Funny)

truthsearch (249536) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432102)

No offense, but you need to find new friends.

Re:Wired is a contra indicator (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432282)

Hans Reiser, is that you?

Re:Wired is a contra indicator (1)

Skrynesaver (994435) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432096)

I genuinely have difficulty with the whole second-life/sadville thing. Is it just the kids who didn't get bored with the whole clique thing by the time they left school or what?

Lottery (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17431886)

And I'm goin' win the big lottery! So if you could loan me a couple of hundred until then, I'll take good care of you when the gravy train comes in!

What is the point of making these wild predictions?

Re:Lottery (2, Funny)

Technician (215283) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431998)

And I'm goin' win the big lottery!

I already did. I have several e-mails to prove it. Someday I'm going to have to call and ask when they are sending the money.

Re:Lottery (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432066)

Hey, that's great. Congratulations. I let the IRS know for you, they'll be around to pick up their cut any minute now.

Nah... we'll never be irrelevant... (2)

advocate_one (662832) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431898)

not while we can be milked for support... the women aren't gonna drop us and fend for themselves...
Artificial gametes made from female eggs are sold over the internet, making fathers biologically irrelevant.

Re:Nah... we'll never be irrelevant... (1)

WormholeFiend (674934) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431930)

Plus, I would think that for (the mostly male) scientist community, creating female replicants would higher in the priorities list.

Re:Nah... we'll never be irrelevant... (0)

Valthan (977851) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432148)

Why was Parent modded off topic... please RTFA before modding people!

Re:Nah... we'll never be irrelevant... (1)

simm1701 (835424) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432250)

Troll maybe... but then the modder really counts equally as troll

Who knows what the future will bring - maybe the Tleilaxu will turn out to have it right - not sure axolotl tanks are really the way to go though.... (and if you miss the reference you could try wikipedia but I'd recommend forgoing that and actualy read the Dune books - the prequels aren't too bad either)

Re:Nah... we'll never be irrelevant... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432494)

Not only should the grandparent have not been modded offtopic, it should have been modded insightful. I got taken in hook, line and sinker by one of those gals seeking genetic material and financing for the upkeep of the results. It was the only reason she had been dating me, quietly dropping use of birth control and then dropping me when pregnancy test confirmed she was pregnant. She transferred to over a thousand miles away and sent me the bill after arrival, which additionally was when I found out she had gotten pregnant. No, this isn't purely assumption on my part, not only did I hear from her friends that she had actually made such statements to them they arranged for me to overhear them from her on a last visit with those friends.

It is scientifically known that females generally seek what they believe will be a good protector and provider for their offspring. Government insists on making itself the protector these days and they no longer have to keep the male around to keep him as a provider. Now mod the grandparent back up.

Re:Nah... we'll never be irrelevant... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432642)

There is a fairly simple solution to that.

Either use a condom - though this definitely has its down sides

Or take a more permanant solution - a vascectomy - free on the NHS painful for a couple of days but no big deal. Reversable for 4k - cheap compared tot he price of having kids.

And I've been in a similar situation - I'm fairly high paid IT contractor so obviously an attractive target for such exthortion - twice a ex-girlfriend of mine got pregnant with "my" child. I suggested they go get another pregnancy test, followed by a paternity test and then informed them I was clinically sterile (obviously not something I generally admit to a new partner and see no need until I really plan to get serious)

However since in many countries genetic proof of fathering the child is not required, had I not taken (and had documented test evidence) that I could not posibly be the father, I would have been quite screwed.

Re:Nah... we'll never be irrelevant... (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432662)

Why was Parent modded off topic


One of the rare females here had mod points?

life from scifi, as usual (1)

Endymion (12816) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431912)

Second Life Ends a Life: Skullduggery in Second Life -- probably digital adultery -- ends in a real-life murder.

I see someone has been reading [wikipedia.org] . That plot has been covered already.

Re:life from scifi, as usual (1)

Endymion (12816) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431938)

umm... make that link Tea from an Empty Cup [wikipedia.org] .

can't type today or something... @.@

Just like it was (1, Informative)

advocate_one (662832) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431922)

back in the Viking times... why else do you think they called it Greenland then???
As the ice melts, Greenland becomes literally green.

Marketing (4, Informative)

hypermanng (155858) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432054)

They were trying to establish a viable colony and needed to attract more colonists. "Hostile Frigid Waste" wasn't working, so Greenland it was.

Re:Just like it was (3, Interesting)

kansas1051 (720008) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432062)

back in the Viking times... why else do you think they called it Greenland then???

The Vikings (Erik the Red) called it Greenland to encourage immigrants to move there. Although some contend "Greenland" comes from a bad translation of Gruntland ("Ground-land"). See Wikipedia [wikipedia.org] .

Re:Just like it was (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432074)

Errr No.

From wikipedia:

"The name "Greenland" comes from Scandinavian settlers. In the Norse sagas, it is said that Erik the Red was exiled from Iceland for murder. He, along with his extended family and thralls, set out in ships to find the land that was rumored to be to the northwest. After settling there, he named the land Grænland ("Greenland"), possibly in order to attract more people to settle there. Greenland was also called Gruntland ("Ground-land") on early maps. Whether Green is an erroneous transcription of Grunt ("Ground"), which refers to shallow bays, or vice versa, is not known. It should also be noted, however, that the southern portion of Greenland (not covered by glacier) is indeed very green in the summer."

Re:Just like it was (1)

morgan_greywolf (835522) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432390)

That's highly suspect. Norse sagas [slashdot.org] aren't exactly known for the complete truthfulness. It's possible that it happened that way, but knowing what I know about Norse culture, it's probably just a really cool story about a Norse hero.

Re:Just like it was (1)

tomzyk (158497) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432078)

why else do you think they called it Greenland then???

To attract more people to come and settle there [wikipedia.org] ; it wouldn't sound as attractive if they had called it Glacierland or NotSoGreenOtherThanTheSouthernMostTipInMidSummerLa nd.

Re:Just like it was (1)

mislinux (828556) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432098)

Actually, when Erik the Red was exiled, it is believed he called the area "Greenland" to try and attract more settlers from his home land, although it was definitely not green (except the southern part). Remember, the Vikings were around in the late 900s. Greenland didn't get covered completely in ice in under 1100 years. That would have taken an ice age.

A Bit Premature (2, Insightful)

Silver Sloth (770927) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431928)

Greenland Becomes Green

As the ice melts, Greenland becomes literally green.
It will take a few more years (or even decades) yet. It might not even happen, we should stop calling it 'Global Warming' and start calling it 'Climate Change' otherwise it gives this idea that everywhere will become some sort of tropical paradise. We Brits could do with some warming but, if some of the predictions about the gulf stream are correct, we'll actually get colder.

they forgot to mention... (4, Insightful)

teh_chrizzle (963897) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431940)

that this is the year of linux on the desktop and that this is the year that sun's "whatever the hell we are calling thin clients this year" breaks the MS stranglehold on the corporate desktop.

i don't think either will happen, but some crackpot makes that prediction every year. this year, it would appear that cackpot is me :-)

Re:they forgot to mention... (1)

ElephanTS (624421) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432290)

you meant 'cackpot' didn't you ;-p

Re:they forgot to mention... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432326)

this year, it would appear that cackpot is me :-)
Yumm... a pot of cack. Got a spoon?
 

Apple laptops? (2, Insightful)

NineNine (235196) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431948)

Half of all new computers sold in 2007 will be laptops and 20 percent of those will be Apple's MacBooks."

I doubt this. But then, Wired has always been even bigger Apple shills than Slashdot is.

Re:Apple laptops? (2, Informative)

Orange Crush (934731) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432244)

I doubt this. But then, Wired has always been even bigger Apple shills than Slashdot is.

Apple's laptop market share doubled [appleinsider.com] in the first half of last year from 6% in January 2006 to 12% in June 2006. I don't know what their market share is up to since 6/06 but predicting 20% for 2007 doesn't sound unreasonable to me.

Re:Apple laptops? (3, Insightful)

Keyslapper (852034) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432252)

Actually, I'd be surprised if it was only 20%.

I'm not an OS hound at all, I've used Linux, FreeBSD, Windows (Every version since 3.1 - except '98) and finally, MacOSX. FreeBSD has always been a favorite, and I've always lamented the fact that there weren't more paying jobs that focused on the *BSDs.

I've developed (for my bread and butter) on 5 flavors of Unix (not including Linux or any *BSD), and am currently doing so on Windows.

Now, that doesn't make me an expert on any one of these platforms, and certainly doesn't make me privy to any special information, but it seems to me that the changes Apple has made in just the last couple years are huge gains. You can now do anything with MacOSX that you could once only do on Windows - and a great many of them are considerably easier with OSX.

The change to an Intel architecture has opened the way to VM development, which essentially puts Apple ahead of MS in terms of feature availability - while MS has added video and photo management features to Vista that are suspiciously similar to iPhoto and iDVD, they still don't have anything like GarageBand or Sherlock (which, by the way, is an AWESOME app). This is the point where MS will start to lose, unless they stop playing the "Me Too" game, using Apple as their R&D lab and start playing to their strengths. MS is still ahead in the hardware game, though with Apple's shift to Intel, this is a somewhat slimmer lead. Vista has been labeled a MacOSX wannabe (without the stability) by a number of sources, some of which are typically pro-MS. MS needs to get their own R&D and design teams, and start making their UI more flexible - and stable. Until they start focusing on flexibility, stability, and (more effectively) on security, they'll continue to struggle to stay just one step ahead.

I think this will be the year the balance starts to tip. I don't know if it will stay tipped, or if it will tip to anything near equivalence, much less anywhere near the level Apple actually deserves for all their hard work and creative innovation, but it will tip.

And BTW, I've been waiting for the new year myself to upgrade to a Macbook Pro, simply for the "extras" that Apple does so much better, and the VMs, which will finally let me have the OS of my choice on a laptop. Of course, storage for all these VMs will now become something of a hassle (WinXP, Vista, Ubuntu, Knoppix, FreeBSD, etc.) ...

Before anyone suggests you can still get those OSes on a VM in Windows, keep in mind, you can't get MacOSX on a VM in Windows yet. Even so, I happen to like the look and feel of the Apple notebooks better than pretty much anything I've seen from Dell, Gateway, or any of the other big PC makers.

Re:Apple laptops? (2, Insightful)

Gr8Apes (679165) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432418)

Actually, I prefer the MacBook (Pro) w/ windows combination, especially if you do any dev at all that also runs on Unix. Can't count the number of times that capitalization has caused issues when transferring to a real OS. (That's right, Windows still sucks eggs in that dept.) With OSX and Parallels, you now get a real OS, and can run those few pesky windows apps seamlessly, at least until MS tries to break them again.

And why wouldn't you get a Mac? Price? For similarly robust computers, Macs are now very competitively priced. And the packaged software is pretty darn nice too, and is much more feature rich than the MS set, although not good enough to not require an additional software purchase for the serious user. (e.g., iPhoto is nice, until you get into RAW editing, or thousands of pictures. iMovie is nice, but for full menu creation, you'll need something better)

I'm looking forward to my Macbook Pro, it'll be on order within the week. The Macbook is nice, but I miss the backlit keys.

Rats. (4, Funny)

TripMaster Monkey (862126) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431954)


Still no flying cars.

Damnit...

I was promised flying cars...

Re:Rats. (1)

theStorminMormon (883615) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431974)

Seriously. And I want my jetpack.

-stormin

Re:Rats. (1)

WormholeFiend (674934) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432000)

And Duke Nukem Forever

Re:Rats. (1)

Skrynesaver (994435) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432204)

Here [theregister.co.uk] you go, definitve proof the Austrailians are working on it ;)

interesting, not necessarily agreed... (3, Insightful)

jimstapleton (999106) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431964)

Year o' the Laptop Half of all new computers sold in 2007 will be laptops and 20 percent of those will be Apple's MacBooks.
With the popularity of notebooks, I can see this, except for the 20% by Apple, I doubt they'll surpass 10-15% at best.
Print to Web A major newspaper gives up printing on paper to publish exclusively online.
Not sure that this'll happen, unless you want to stretch the definition of "a major newpaper".
HD-DVD Wins HD-DVD is the clear winner over Blu-ray in the DVD format wars. Oh yeah, and the PS3 is a bust.
The latter was more-or-less already true before 2007 started. The former... It's too early to tell, never underestimate the power of marketing dweebs at selling crap.
Implantable Contact Lenses Synthetic corneas will be approved by the Food and Drug Administration, allowing the shortsighted to have artificial contact lenses transplanted right into their eyes. No more popping out!
Not really a surprise or news. I thought it had already been done, but I guess I could be wrong. Not like it'd be the first time.
No More Dads Artificial gametes made from female eggs are sold over the internet, making fathers biologically irrelevant.
Still 5+ years off. Also it's not really an online type thing until they get a USB medicomaitc or something like that. It's still going to require the wom(an|en) in question to go to a lab and/or doctors office.
PaedoSpace Sex offenders start their own social networking service. It's popular on Capitol Hill.
That's hardly insightful or news. Already done, it's called congress.
DNA Database for Athletes To stamp out doping, the Olympic Committee orders all athletes to submit DNA samples to a global database, which matches blood found in doping forensics to cheats. Forensics include needles, tubes, bags of blood and skin cells on stacks of 100-euro notes seized at doping clinics.
Got bridge? Want one? This won't happen.
Online Sitcom Picked Up by Network Encouraged by the news, the internet becomes home to 5,000 clones of Friends, shot by friends using their friends but unwatched even by their friends.
Wired, meet youtube, youtube meet wired.
MySpace Spaces Out MySpace splinters as teens head for niche sites. New services that control profiles across multiple social networking sites begin to take off.
Possible, but I doubt it. Most people are too lazy to move.

Re:interesting, not necessarily agreed... (1)

jwdav (1003969) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432224)

With regards to "With the popularity of notebooks, I can see this, except for the 20% by Apple, I doubt they'll surpass 10-15% at best"

Apple had 12% market share of laptop sales last June, given the rise of Apple market share since then, and the general trend, it's quite likely that 20% is within reach.

Re:interesting, not necessarily agreed... (1)

jimstapleton (999106) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432260)

I have trouble beliving that, moving up 8% in a year, basically, increasing their sales by 66% of their current market share? They've been around too long, people have their minds too set on what Apple is and isn't.

With a very few exceptions, most of the people I knwo think Macs are silly and useless computers with limited capabilities. And most of my friends aren't tech geeks. They pretty much laugh at the Apple commercials as misleading and lies (which isn't horribly inaccurate IMO).

I guess I just don't see that switch happening.

Re:interesting, not necessarily agreed... (1)

jwdav (1003969) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432342)

Apple's latest overall market share is around 5-6%, but in *laptops* it's much higher. Reported by Ars Technica as 12% and climbing last June. http://arstechnica.com/journals/apple.ars/2006/7/2 5/4753 [arstechnica.com]

Re:interesting, not necessarily agreed... (1)

jimstapleton (999106) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432546)

Wow quite a jump from january to june, but I still don't think they can keep it up, not without something really innovative, or at least taking in some of the not-so-innovative but still nice ideas.

I suspect 2007 will be the year the Tablet really hits off, because of it's convinience, if Apple makes a tablet, they might have chance.

If Apple makes a tablet with a DVI port, they might even have me as a buyer, although OS would be replaced by FreeBSD before the day is out.

Re:interesting, not necessarily agreed... (2, Insightful)

Achromatic1978 (916097) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432798)

Problem is, that's going to plateau. At some point they'll reach that point where to gain any inroads they have to start replacing all the corporate Dells, Compaqs and IBMs - then their growth will slow dramatically, "rightly" or "wrongly".

Re:interesting, not necessarily agreed... (1)

Quasicorps (897116) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432598)

Fox News now projects HD-DVD the winner in Florida...

What is so great about IM? (2, Interesting)

Buskaatt (124333) | more than 7 years ago | (#17431978)

I'm a luddite I admit, but what makes IM so great?

There's no way to archive the messages is there?

Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index?

How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people? Can you thread the information into a cohesive timeline?

I definitely have uses for irc (which is kinda like im I guess) but if it were my sole means of electronic communication I wouldn't get anything done. What am I missing?

Re:What is so great about IM? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432076)

> Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index?

Of course -- just make sure your Copernic desktop search is searching your trillian archive directory, and they're all archived.

(Google desktop search is worthless because it doesn't support modern operating systems -- it is written for Windows 95 style desktops where the only user is the Administrator, and we all know what a stupid outdated security model that is...)

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

SQLGuru (980662) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432088)

* No archive = harder to trace those solicitations from congressman to page
* You don't forward the thread, you simply invite them into the chat

But, I agree. IM has it's place, but it is the same reason that our cell phones (which we carry around with us all the time) have voicemail. IM is the phone call and E-mail is the voice mail. I don't see either of them going away (maybe morphing into something better, but not going away).

Layne

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

Rob T Firefly (844560) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432114)

I'm a luddite I admit, but what makes IM so great? There's no way to archive the messages is there? Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index? How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people? Can you thread the information into a cohesive timeline?
By running a quick text search on my Gaim logs, which are stored in bog-standard HTML files, I see that someone asked me that very question in 2003.

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

Valthan (977851) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432122)

Meet Google Talk paired with Gmail! Everything you asked for an more (and they even come together... need an invite, let me know!)

Re:What is so great about IM? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432218)

Or you could use a service that people actually use, like MSN Messenger.

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

nacturation (646836) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432378)

Or you could use a service that people actually use, like MSN Messenger.
Which (optionally) gets archived to your hard drive in an XML format. I'm sure MS has some tools for corporations to auto-archive company IM accounts as well... I think Live Communications Server is their thing.
 

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

east coast (590680) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432138)

There's no way to archive the messages is there?
Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index?
How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people? Can you thread the information into a cohesive timeline?


And a more important question...

If all of this functionality was put into an IM client would it still be IM or would we just start calling it eMail?

This isn't much unlike the "death" of the PDA. The PDA isn't dying, it's migrating. The current common form of the PDA makes it a target for getting both bigger and smaller. In the case of it getting smaller we turn it into the smartphone. When it gets larger it's just another laptop/tablet. I find the people who scoff at stuff like PDAs are the people who wonder where new technology comes from because they don't see it for what it was in the past.

Not unlike the station wagon becoming the SUV. (That's right, SUV drivers, you're actually driving the old grocery getter with a new body and a lift kit... and Jeep is laughing all the way to the bank.)

Re:What is so great about IM? (2, Informative)

thebdj (768618) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432168)

I'm a luddite I admit, but what makes IM so great?
Instant gratification? Even e-mail is not as instantaneous as IMs are. Far less spam. Granted IM is getting spammed, but not at the rate that e-mail is.

There's no way to archive the messages is there?
GAIM [sf.net]

Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index?
See my previous answer. If you log, you can search those logs using GAIM. Not real hard. Tons of other programs offer this option as well.

How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people? Can you thread the information into a cohesive timeline?
Logs have timestamps. Marvelous little thing that tells you the date and time a message was sent. Forwarding messages might be possible. Worst case you copy and paste. Most chat systems also offer chat room options. AOL IM offers you the ability to create a room and invite the people you want to it. This can be accomplished and logged with the above.

I definitely have uses for irc (which is kinda like im I guess) but if it were my sole means of electronic communication I wouldn't get anything done. What am I missing?
Obviously a lot. IM is coming into increasing usage. We have a Jabber server at work for all internal communications, it is used more than the e-mail system or the phones are. I actually have to get up from my desk once a day just to make sure that people are really in this place. I do not know how big it will be with inter-office communications, especially considering a lot of companies headed by older execs still don't use e-mail well. (Trust me, plenty of offices are still sending TONS of paper memos.)

Re:What is so great about IM? (0, Troll)

Buskaatt (124333) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432436)

I'm a luddite I admit, but what makes IM so great?
Instant gratification? Even e-mail is not as instantaneous as IMs are. Far less spam. Granted IM is getting spammed, but not at the rate that e-mail is.

Bah. I'm not looking for instant gratifcation in my work -- I'm looking for solidity, trustworthiness, and industry standards. GAIM is fine (I have that on my Linux box) but all my clients use email and IRC. Email separates topics much better for me. Between graylisting and dspam, my spam problem is just about nil (1 or 2 a day for the hundred or so emails I get).

Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index?
See my previous answer. If you log, you can search those logs using GAIM. Not real hard. Tons of other programs offer this option as well.

Again: Bah. Why search through what amounts to a bunch of text files when I can filter messages so much more accurately (and quickly) using email. No need to grep through a bunch of text files or guess which text file to search.

How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people? Can you thread the information into a cohesive timeline?
Logs have timestamps. Marvelous little thing that tells you the date and time a message was sent. Forwarding messages might be possible. Worst case you copy and paste. Most chat systems also offer chat room options. AOL IM offers you the ability to create a room and invite the people you want to it. This can be accomplished and logged with the above.

Hrm email has those timestamps, and I can thread the messages for cohesive timelines and a topic-oriented search. I don't care what "might" be possible, it still doesn't prove the viability of IM over email.

As far as inviting people into my chat room, why bother? I don't forward an email until after the information arrives that I need to forward. Inviting somebody into my chat room after I have information for them means I have to copy and paste whatever I learned, repeating the info, and cluttering my logs.

I definitely have uses for irc (which is kinda like im I guess) but if it were my sole means of electronic communication I wouldn't get anything done. What am I missing?
Obviously a lot. IM is coming into increasing usage. We have a Jabber server at work for all internal communications, it is used more than the e-mail system or the phones are. I actually have to get up from my desk once a day just to make sure that people are really in this place. I do not know how big it will be with inter-office communications, especially considering a lot of companies headed by older execs still don't use e-mail well. (Trust me, plenty of offices are still sending TONS of paper memos.)

Why would I trust you? You act like a dick. I asked a simple set of questions for some well reasoned answers, not a bunch of sanctimonious condescension. You haven't provided one reason why IM will replace email.

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

owlnation (858981) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432276)

Can I also add to this list my biggest hatred of IM, that when I have used it in the past I found it extremely invasive. It either steals focus causing you to paste god knows what into an IM to absolutely the wrong person, or still naggingly flashing in the corner of my eye to the point where I have to stop what I'm doing and deal with it. At least you can turn of the annoying sound effects if you want. (why does anything, ever, need to flash and nag in the corner of my screen - not even anti-virus software needs to do this, it should always be optional.)

It is the little slow death of sanity, productivity and concentration.

Still, I don't think this is technically an unsurmountable issue, nor are the points made by the parent post. I'm sure it must be possible to add more control to messaging clients so that you can have them gathering messages in the background, and add a way of storing and logging messages when you need to. Clients need to be able to talk to each other too - AIM to Yahoo to Google talk or whatever.

Or do these things already exist and it's just that my bad experiences with IM historically has prevented me exploring this fact?

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

ThJ (641955) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432582)

These things already exist and your bad experiences with IM have prevented you from exploring this fact. In most programs you can turn off all the flashing and sounds and even smileys if you wish. Anyway, I keep them all on, because the worst thing I know is typing to someone and they ignore me. I don't want this to happen to my friends, so I leave the notifications on so I can reply to them immediately. Think of it like a small office where the coworkers do their separate stuff and chitchat in between working. Nothing distracting about it.

Re:What is so great about IM? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17433036)

Think of it like a small office where the coworkers do their separate stuff and chitchat in between working. Nothing distracting about it.

For you, maybe, but for some people out there it is distracting to us.

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

finkployd (12902) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432320)

I'm a luddite I admit, but what makes IM so great?

It's more real time than email usually is. I use it for when a phone call would be too much trouble (quick one off questions and such) or when cutting and pasting code and/or config lines is needed.

There's no way to archive the messages is there?

Gaim can easily save everything to text files

Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index?

grep the text files

How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people? Can you thread the information into a cohesive timeline?,

copy/paste

As for threaded discussions, you want email (or NNTP), not IM. IM is not some holy grail that covers all communication needs.

I definitely have uses for irc (which is kinda like im I guess) but if it were my sole means of electronic communication I wouldn't get anything done. What am I missing?

I think your mistake is looking for a sole means of electronic communication.

Finkployd

Re:What is so great about IM? (2, Funny)

Qzukk (229616) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432332)

How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people?

I use bash.org for that.

Re:What is so great about IM? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432358)

It is quite likely that IM will replace email eventually, even for messages between businesses. IM services like MSN operate by whitelists, which (mostly) prevents spam, but has the disadvantage that the entire service is centralised. As email becomes more and more useless, people will move to IM. Expect the introduction of mailboxes to popular IM services in the future - offline messaging is the only thing that's missing.

There is another problem though. Centralisation is bad for fault tolerance. Current-generation email is fully distributed with no authorities, hence spam. But MSN is all controlled from Microsoft data centres. It's going to be really bad when Microsoft realises they can use MSN to force everyone to upgrade to $LATEST_VERSION.

Re:What is so great about IM? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432562)

I'm a luddite I admit, but what makes IM so great?
It allows quick two-way conversation to hammer out a problem. It is much faster than email and has less overhead. If you are trying to hammer out a problem, it fills a void between email and picking up the phone. Phones require the callers to have their full attention on the problem. IM allows you to multitask to an extent.

There's no way to archive the messages is there?
Just about all IM clients now feature logging, or have add-ons that will allow you to do so. All "corporate approved" IM clients have logging and server side archiving features.

Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index?
Its crude, but the "find in files" search command works. Logs are usually divided up by who you talk to, so that narrows the search space a great deal. It works about as well as the find command in outlook. Pair it up with Google Desktop for better search capabilities.

How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people? Can you thread the information into a cohesive timeline?
Copy and paste works as usual. The very nature of IM puts it into a cohesive timeline. Sending to a bunch of people can be tedious, but if you really need to, you can always use email.

I definitely have uses for irc (which is kinda like im I guess) but if it were my sole means of electronic communication I wouldn't get anything done. What am I missing?

IRC is not as user friendly or ubiquitous as IM. You are correct in that IRC does not really lack any features that IM has. IRC is also blocked on many corporate networks, while IM is not. Even in a tech environment, you will get a few dumb looks when you ask someone to go into #help_me_now on undernet, rather than just sending out a chatroom request over AIM or MSN.

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

Adeptus_Luminati (634274) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432590)

Umm...Say what?

"There's no way to archive the messages is there?"
- YES there is. Most IM's today allow for archiving, Yahoo even does it by default archiving every message - a bad idea from a security perspective, so in fact it does it in extreme.

"Is there a way to catalog the information into a searchable index?"
- Sort of, it's automatically done for you. Yahoo provides a search option to search within the archive.

"How can you "forward" an im to another person or group of people? Can you thread the information into a cohesive timeline?"
- Easy, after you finished your search, you just copy/paste it into little IM windows of whom you want to forward it to, or alternatively copy/paste it into some technology they called "e-mail".

Jokes aside, IM is an awesome tool for the home user. In the top 3 I would say. Web, Email & IM are pretty much the most used software for most home users these days. In the Enterprise, especially the large Enterprise (not a star trek reference), I can see it as a tool that if opened to the world (i.e. anybody can message you at any time on any subject) it will likely make you less focused on your work and therefore less productive. IM still needs to mature a lot in the Enterprise - I'd suggest starting out with some piloting options from a focus group to determine how IM might be useful & a positive technology (if at all) in your company. Such a study might be followed by development of co-herent user policies with "how-to and when-to" tidbits, as well as actual back-end management suite with group-policy like controls to enforce those policies. I think the missing piece these days is mature back-end management software.

just my 2 cents.

Re:What is so great about IM? (1)

ajs318 (655362) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432658)

You're missing
grep phrase $HOME/.gaim/logs/protocol/login_name/*
Your IM conversations are stored right there in plain text. (So are your passwords, in $HOME/.gaim/accounts.xml -- but that's alright because the directory is 700 so nobody except you or root can read them.)

Only IM at work -- NOT (2, Insightful)

PeeAitchPee (712652) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432010)

Spam Doubles: No-brainer -- but no one cares because we're all using IM, especially at work.

Sorry, wrong, *buzzz*. Email will continue to be the corporate IT bedrock it's been for the last decade. While IM is great for those young folks with a short attention spam pushing around uber-important stuff like "OMG?!?!? He dumped her? Shes gonna like be sooooo drunk tonite!" -- and I'll admit it even has a place augmenting email in certain areas of the enterprise -- corporate america already has billions in infrastructure built around this more persistant method of communication. I for one have noticed that if I leave "on" an IM client at work I get pestered to the point where I just end up keeping it off, and eventually unstall it.

Re:Only IM at work -- NOT (1)

antifoidulus (807088) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432216)

While IM is great for those young folks with a short attention spam

Was that intentional? How does one have a "long attention spam"?

No one cares? (1)

sqlrob (173498) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432060)

Spam Doubles: No-brainer -- but no one cares because we're all using IM, especially at work

I just stopped using one of my accounts at work because of spim. So yes, people care.

Beta plus for effort (1)

frisket (149522) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432130)

I'd say over 50% of the forecasts will turn out -- but only in the USA. Some of them are already USA-specific anyway (eg TiVo) and WIRED notoriously has a set of blinkers that restrict its vision to the contiguous 48 states (and sometimes just to Californyaa). The real skinny:
  • Google Stock -- who gives a flying f*ck anyway except the tiny number who own some?
  • Internet Traffic -- bandwidth is always in demand, but it will be 80% taken up by spam
  • BitTorrent on TiVo -- more likely BitTorrent will be throttled by some dipsh*t judgment
  • Spam Doubles -- sure, and more; but only those with no work to do use IM
  • Second Life murder -- the miracle is that it hasn't happened already
  • Year o' the Laptop -- long overdue, but 20% for Macs is optimistic
Happy NúJã!

--

As the database engineer said when she realised she'd have to start using XML, "I remember when all of this was fields"

Re:Beta plus for effort (1)

$RANDOMLUSER (804576) | more than 7 years ago | (#17433100)

> Year o' the Laptop -- long overdue, but 20% for Macs is optimistic

Not really, as most other laptops will only come with Vista by mid-year.

Congress (3, Funny)

RockoTDF (1042780) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432234)

I highly doubt with a democratic congress in charge things are going to be getting any worse for us in the areas of privacy and the government any time soon.

Re:Congress (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432530)

The democratic congress wants to collectivize health care. See how much privacy you have then.

But, (1)

Sippan (932861) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432240)

They're not predicting the Second Coming of the Woz?

Wired's predictions can be tracked (1)

BlackjackGuy (631964) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432316)

These predictions are being tracked on Who's Wrong [whoswrong.com] (along with lots of others).

how about this? (1)

argStyopa (232550) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432334)

The clueless journalists that want to write about something 'edgy' and 'VR' discover that Second Life is a lame excuse for a massively-multiplayer online experience (pretty much used only by the clueless), and stop referring to it as if it's the be-all and end-all archetypical "VR" experience?

Nah, I doubt it too.

and People Continue to Slander Google. (-1, Troll)

twitter (104583) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432354)

Google drops "Don't be evil" as its corporate mantra. Evil has its justifications, but no one likes a hypocrite.

I pity people who think that the only way to get ahead is to screw someone else. It's the soul of the criminal and they are doomed to a lifetime of paranoia, betrayal and failure. It is right to shun people who think this way and have proven it but perverse to judge everyone before they have acted. The first step in abusing someone is to degrade them in your own mind. The result it that you treat everyone as guilty and become the worst of offenders yourself. People like that are unable to cooperate and are ultimately doomed to fail, regardless of initial resources and initial success. As honest people are burnt and avoid the disshonest, the disshonest are left with an ever decreasing quality of partner.

Bill Gates is a prime example. He's burnt every partner he ever had, in ever more blatant ways. Microsoft's "Plays for Sure" dissaster is the latest, but show what kind of company he's had to keep. Now that he's burnt through software and hardware makers, he's left with entertainment sharks and the promise of DRM is the biggest scam of them all. So, despite tremendous family money and legal connections and great initial success, Microsoft will soon fail. He'll keep his money and be a force of evil in shipping, medicine and education for some time to come, but he has to surround himself with a bigger body guard than the president of the US. Isolated and uber-paranoid he will never have a clue.

Where's the obligatory... (1)

WhyDoYouWantToKnow (1039964) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432510)

Where are the XYZ iPod killers that will revolutionize the world and cure cancer to boot predictions?

How can they call these predictions for 2007 if there's no iPod killer?

I was promised an iPod killer. I want my iPod killer. Where is my iPod killer?

this FP for GNAA (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17432512)

Decent predictions but... (1)

testednegative (843833) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432580)

I don't buy the whole Skype video being a large part of the doubling internet traffic. Internet video has been around for a good while now and Skype can market the hell out of it but i don't think it'll aquire such a large slice of the internet pipes. The move from email to IM is also unlikely, way too many business' and way too much money already invested in email servers/infrastructure.
Besides that, decent predictions. I think we can all vouch for notebooks slowly taking over the desktop market, case and point would be that this last year alone I bought a laptop for myself, my dad bought himself a laptop and my sister a macbook. I don't think macbooks will take such a large share of the notebook market allthough I do think they will be top contenders.

My prediction is that there will be more spam (seems like a sureshot every year, unfortunately) and botnets will be taken ever more seriousely (I hope at least).
my 2cents.

Google 1,000? (1)

LuisAnaya (865769) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432636)

Yes, I believe it. According to their future estimates per growth and multiple, it should be trading about $700 by the end of 2007, with a low estimate of $600. It might not happen by 2007, but if it continues to grow at the same rate for 2008, I would believe seeing up to 1,000 if it does not split somewhere in '07.

HD-DVD Wins? (1)

Living Ghost (987078) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432640)

HD-DVD Wins HD-DVD is the clear winner over Blu-ray in the DVD format wars. Oh yeah, and the PS3 is a bust.

I don't see how. Blu-ray is a better format, with bigger studios such as Fox and Disney. Not to mention the fact that Apple and Dell support it, along with a multitude of other large companies.

I forget, what does HD-DVD have? Microsoft, Pinoneer, and a few movie studios? I don't quite remember everything.

All this still overlooking the fact that blu-ray is the superior format, yes, betamax vs. vhs, bla bla bla, but currently, it isn't in a consumer fight like that. It's in an early adapter fight. But, when it becomes more affordable, do you think people are going to go out and get HD-DVD players, when they most likely already have one in their Dell or Apple computer? Not to mention that it's already in their PS3 that they have in the home media center, if they don't have a HTPC. And you have to give the PS3 some slack. It really isn't a bad console at all. Sure, it's a little pricey, but it's cheaper than the high-end 8800GTX XXX out right now.


So, tell me how blu-ray was going to lose again?

Re:HD-DVD Wins? (1)

octaene (171858) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432948)

when it becomes more affordable, do you think people are going to go out and get HD-DVD players, when they most likely already have one in their Dell or Apple computer? Not to mention that it's already in their PS3 that they have in the home media center, if they don't have a HTPC.

Boy, you're making a lot of assumptions. I have never, nor will I own a game console or a Dell. OK, maybe an Apple. But the reason this battle is important is because I want to buy a DVD player that will play the damn discs I buy or rent. Are we going to have to have 3 devices just to watch a frikkin' movie?

Additions (1)

Bish.dk (547663) | more than 7 years ago | (#17432804)

A major newspaper gives up printing on paper to publish exclusively online.
This actually already happened [reuters.com] late last year.

Digg holds out for a big payday but ends up like Friendster (i.e., no friends).
This point should perhaps come with the disclaimer that Digg-competitor Reddit.com is owned by Wired.

stop asking questions (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#17433004)

Zong: for the Xth time, _please_ stop asking questions like "What do you folks think? How many will Wired have called correctly by the end of the year?". We are not stupid, we will discuss things, and this too will probably come up. Just post news for nerds, _stop_ asking questions.
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