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Dvorak to Apple - Stop The iPhone

Zonk posted more than 7 years ago | from the wave-off-wave-off dept.

409

eldavojohn writes "John Dvorak is advising Apple to cease all efforts on the iPhone, citing the mobile handset business as a 'buzz saw waiting to chop up newbies.' With Apple's image as a 'hot company that can do no wrong' on the line, Dvorak warns that the extremely fad-prone marketplace for cell phones will quickly turn the 'hot' iPhone passe'. Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering, he says, they're likely to fail. 'If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.'"

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Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (5, Informative)

AKAImBatman (238306) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532201)

Seriously, there's nothing to see here. Move along. Dvorak has known for decades that Apple users are protective of the Apple name and products. So he regularly goes about trying to get those users worked up. He even admits it here [youtube.com] ! Rather than giving him the satisfaction of getting you worked up again, why don't you try ignoring him for a change?

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (1)

terevos (148651) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532251)

Definitely agree here. He is either an idiot or a troll. Either way, I really don't care what he says.

Apple just markets products. (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532347)

They haven't made a product since the original mac 20 years ago. They just re-brand stuff from Taiwan and add a "cool factor" that some people pay a premium for.

Apple boys complaining about trolling? Please.

Re:Apple just markets products. (5, Funny)

AKAImBatman (238306) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532627)

They haven't made a product since the original mac 20 years ago. They just re-brand stuff from Taiwan and add a "cool factor" that some people pay a premium for.

Why, John! I didn't know you posted on Slashdot!

Suddenly it all makes sense. All the trolls, the bad arguments, the poor attempts at putting Apple down. It was you the whole time, wasn't it? Oh John, you're such a kidder!

Re:Apple just markets products. (1)

ILikeRed (141848) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532959)

You're just upset because it does not come in brown [com.com] . Now that's innovation!

Well if Dvorak doesn't like it... (4, Insightful)

MoxFulder (159829) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532369)

And I thought the iPhone was gonna be a flop... but now that John Dvorak says so, I *must* be wrong.

The man is a giant windbag of nerd conspiracy theories and technical misunderstanding. Why do the slashdot eds. slurp up all of his moonshot predictions?

Dvorak again?.. but why? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532381)

I've always been slightly mystified by articles featuring opinions from 'analysts'. These mysterious people to whom we are supposed to pay attention. They pop up from nowhere usually say one controversial thing and are never heard from again.

Dvorak on the other hand just doesn't make sense. Not only does he have completely randomly controversal opinions on Apple but he's never right. How did he get past his third mention? Why does not everyone treat him like all the others. You post one of his wacky ideas you have a good laugh and you more on to others.--
The Wolfkin

Zonk Strikes Again! (5, Insightful)

astrosmash (3561) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532395)

Who else would post a Dvorak troll to the front page? What a waste.

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (5, Funny)

$RANDOMLUSER (804576) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532407)

Ask not for whom he trolls, he trolls for thee.

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (1)

LilGuy (150110) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532849)

Every man will be an island, entire of himself. ... with the new iPhone

Readers to Editors: Stop Posting Dvorak Articles! (5, Insightful)

skeevy (926052) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532417)

Unless Slashot is adopting the Dvorak page-hit-generation-model by posting intentionally inflammatory references to intentionally inflammatory articles.

Exactly. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532459)

Even if you know nothing about Dvorak, you can see right through this crap.

There is a HUGE gaping hole in the cell phone market, which itself is exploding.
None of the current offerings really satisfy on all points, which is why this
product is made or broken by its design and efficacy - like all apple products.
Ipod, imac, ibook, all are fundamentally 'good' products at their price point.

Yeah, you can chalk it up to marketing, hype, etc... but before it even exists?

Further, why is Dvorak giving advising ANYONE?
Stick to wonky keyboards and uninspired rants.

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple jealousy! (1)

popisdead (594564) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532707)

ugh, why does /. resort to posting about john dvorak?

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (2, Funny)

Alzheimers (467217) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532767)

Obviously the guy's a moron -- I mean, no one I know of even uses his bass-ackwards keyboard layouts!

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (5, Funny)

iPaul (559200) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532829)

Before commenting I always read the story or stories indicated. However, in this case I realized my mistake as soon as I clicked the link. I gave that bofoon one more hit to drive his hit count up. Maybe I'll start posting articles on my blog like:

Microsoft - Should get out of the operating systems business and start a chain of chicken finger restaurants.
Oracle - Relational databases are just a fad, they should diversify into concrete.
Apple - Should just liquidate the company and payout the sharholders (oops - Michael Dell beat me to that one).
Hooters - Is there a Hooters O/S in the works? It should be built on BSD with a Linux Kernel, .NET GUI and Open GL based file-system.
Linux - Who would ever use a non-Unix Unix clone? It'll never make it in the server market. Trovalds should build an aquarium.
Google - Who needs search? I already have everything worth reading bookmarked.
Gartner - They're always soo right about the future, they should publish lottery numbers.
Amazon - No one will ever get that Amazon sells books, they should sell snakes, large bugs and other things found in the actual Amazon.
NASA - Should use string cheese to build the world's first space elevator.
Doctors - From now on they should only operate on the healthy, where survival is much more likely.
Viagra - Should exclusively market itself on the Internet using spam.

and finally!!!

Slashdot - Nerds don't care about news. I bet they don't get any postings or hits.

This way I can drive my advertising revenue up and get quoted a lot, even if I'm bizarrly and outrageously mistaken.

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18533043)

Apple - Should just liquidate the company and payout the sharholders

I agree. It'd be doing the world a favor.

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (5, Informative)

Dogtanian (588974) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533291)

Microsoft - Should get out of the operating systems business and start a chain of chicken finger restaurants.
Get real. That is one HELL of a stupid suggestion.

Chickens don't have fingers.

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (1)

utopianfiat (774016) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532999)

Seriously, why can't we moderate articles?
MINUS
ONE
TROLL

Re:Slashdot to Dvorak: Stop the Apple Trolling! (0, Offtopic)

Penguinshit (591885) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533237)

I hate his keyboard...

3G (2, Interesting)

omeomi (675045) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532219)

I think the biggest stumbling block for the iPhone is going to be the fact that it's not a 3G phone at a time when the trend is going toward 3G phones. Cingular is even giving 3G phones away free, now...

Re:3G (3, Insightful)

notthe9 (800486) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532307)

There isn't currently much network architecture in the US for 3G services. I don't think Apple is opposed to selling a 3G phone when the architecture is in place.

Re:3G (2, Insightful)

toriver (11308) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532445)

3G hasn't met with much success outside of Asia yet - I can understand Apple not adding it to the American phone in June, but it's too ealry to tell what they will do with the European release later. For me, GPS and WiFi is more important anyway.

Re:3G (2, Informative)

PipOC (886408) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532489)

I don't see this as a huge problem, 3G deployment isn't widespread at this point, and EDGE still delivers ~200 Kbit data rates, which is nothing to scoff at for a mobile device, and perfectly suitable for web browsing and the like, but it still gives you wi-fi if you need higher throughput for some reason. Hell we don't even know if the browser supports flash, which if omitted nullifies a signifcant portion of available video content. And you should also note that it isn't a tether-modem so one of the major features of 3g phones is moot.

Give me an iTon (1)

rvw (755107) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532543)

I want the iPhone to be just a PDA. For me, they can drop the phone-function, leaving the rest. That would be a great device! They could call it the iTon (well, it's not "new" anymore).

Re:Give me an iTon (3, Funny)

soft_guy (534437) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532729)

I want the iPhone to be just a PDA. For me, they can drop the phone-function, leaving the rest.
That's a great idea because we all know the market for stand-alone PDAs is just booming...

It's what was left out that counts. (4, Insightful)

EmbeddedJanitor (597831) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532623)

The ipod is a very successful product. Part of that comes down to not so much what features it has, but what was left out.

"Just pack it full of features" is a very easy and lazy way to define products. Add too much detail and you gunk up the UI. It is way harder and more important to figure out what to leave out to make it easier to use and "cleaner" for the target user base. There are huge numbers of features that could have been added to ipod, but some of its appeal comes from relative simplicity.

iPhone does not need huge numbers of features to be successful. So long as it does the functions that the target audience expects, it should do well.

Oh good... (3, Funny)

rolfwind (528248) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532237)

I wasn't sure how the iPhone would fare, but now that Dvorak is against it - I can rest assured it will be a success.

Re:Oh good... (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532549)

Just like his keyboard.

Re:Oh good... (1)

Incongruity (70416) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532661)

I second that sentiment. I'm not a mac-fanboy (well, I guess I play one on /. from time to time) -- I'm just constantly amazed at how Dvorak can be so wrong and yet so... noticed.

the ESPN effect (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18533207)

It's called being loud and cock-sure of yourself regarless of how actually insane your analysis is.

Re:Oh good... (1)

irn_bru (209849) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532739)

All we need now is for Taco to call it lame and it's time to start buying up those stocks and shares with abandon.

Re:Oh good... (1)

IntergalacticWalrus (720648) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533251)

All we need now is for Taco to call it lame and it's time to start buying up those stocks and shares with abandon.

It does have wireless though.

My idea for a cell phone. Someone steal it (4, Interesting)

CrazyJim1 (809850) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532241)

The phone has GPS. The GPS continually updates every minute and stores in cache on phone. Every so many hours, its uploaded to your home account so you can review where you were the days before. It also has a 1 touch blog. You can then record voice/text/pictures/video to your site and it will be formatted nicely. You can let family members or friends view this website. It would be a living diary for you, and would take no effort. Just 1 button and all the complex web work is done automatically. Hey and if someone wants to implement this, maybe you can hire me :)

Re:My idea for a cell phone. Someone steal it (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532323)

I wouldn't hire someone that talks to invisble sky wizards. You're a lunatic.

Dude...where's my car? (1)

dafz1 (604262) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532371)

Will be a thing of the past.

This will also be handy for spying on cheating significant others/spouses, teenagers, slacker employees, etc.

Will it be able to tell you where it is when you lose it?

Re:My idea for a cell phone. Someone steal it (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532571)

Sounds like a Sony Ericsson K800. One Touch blog... take a picture - blog it.

Re:My idea for a cell phone. Someone steal it (1)

cabinetsoft (923481) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532597)

The scariest part was on the subject line: "... Someone steal it"

The phone has GPS. The GPS continually updates every minute and stores in cache on phone.
In order to be tracked easy... AND without access to the GSM infrastructure... so not only the Big Brother can watch you but there's some info ready yo be transmitted by bluetooth to everyone in range...

Every so many hours, its uploaded to your home account so you can review where you were the days before.
Hopefully only you...

It also has a 1 touch blog. You can then record voice/text/pictures/video to your site and it will be formatted nicely. You can let family members or friends view this website.
Hopefully only who you let...

It would be a living diary for you, and would take no effort.
For anybody...

Just 1 button and all the complex web work is done automatically. Hey and if someone wants to implement this, maybe you can hire me :)
Where are the good old days when a phone was just a phone, a thing people would call you when they actually have something to say?

Re:My idea for a cell phone. Someone steal it (1)

PipOC (886408) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532773)

For the blog part, Twitter [twitter.com] does kinda what you want.

Re:My idea for a cell phone. Someone steal it (1)

That's Unpossible! (722232) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532919)

This is already available, a product called Chronicle Road:

http://chronicleroad.com/ [chronicleroad.com]

Re:My idea for a cell phone. Someone steal it (1)

kensan (682362) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533115)

Sign up for the Neo1973 of the Openmoko-Project and implement it yourself! The phone has integrated (A)GPS.

Check out http://openmoko.org/ [openmoko.org] . The only open phone there is :)

Earth to Dvorak... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532245)

Put the crack pipe down.

That is all.

OMG! (4, Funny)

Flounder (42112) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532257)

Apple should totally listen to Dvorak! He's brilliant and always spot on and always knows what's right for Apple...

Oh, wait. JOHN Dvorak? Nevermind.

Dvorak Economic Model (5, Insightful)

freerangegeek (451133) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532259)

1) Say something braindead and contrarian about Apple
2) Get it posted on slashdot to flame contreversy
3) Get eyeballs on published work
4) Profit

Re:Dvorak Economic Model (5, Funny)

Imagix (695350) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532337)

Doesn't that depend on a Slashdot reader to RTFA ?

Re:Dvorak Economic Model (4, Funny)

Rakshasa Taisab (244699) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532481)

I thought no one RTFA, so where is the profit?

Re:Dvorak Economic Model (2, Funny)

JohnSearle (923936) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532819)

1) Say something braindead and contrarian about Apple
2) Get it posted on slashdot to flame contreversy
3) Get eyeballs on published work
4) Profit
What Dvorak surely needs here is some gnomes to streamline his economic model.. this four step model is far too convoluted to work.

- John

Dvorak needs hits (1)

wardk (3037) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532269)

must be lacking site hits over in Dvorak-land.

what else would a microsoft shill say?

Re:Dvorak needs hits (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532385)

There is a difference between being a Microsoft-shill and a dumb fuck like Dvorak. Albeit a slight one.

This is as close to complementing MS-shills as I'm going to get (well, except for those on MS' payroll).

Re:Dvorak needs hits (1)

RingDev (879105) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532715)

As the AC who replied to you said... There is a difference between an MS shill and a moron. Dvorak is a moron. He is correct about as often as the sun shines on my dog's ass. Note that my dog died 8 years ago, which was about the same time that John Dvorak was last actually right about something.

-Rick

Re:Dvorak needs hits (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18533155)

So you're saying it's your dog's fault?

I knew there had to be a simple, logical explanation ;-)

Just ask Bono! (4, Funny)

Trails (629752) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532271)

Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering,
Yeah, just like they did with the iPod. You know. They released the iPod, and then that was it and they never did anything else, or came out with new models. There's still only the one type of iPod you can buy and that's it. I live in Azerbeijan.

Calling your bluff (5, Informative)

michaelmalak (91262) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532879)

Here [apple.az] is a photo of the Apple store in Baku, Azerbaijan.

According to this blog [blogspot.com] , Azerbaijan is actually a good place to get an iPod, compared to the surrounding countries.

Thank God for John C. Dvorak (5, Funny)

JoeWalsh (32530) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532285)

Without John, how would I know what's not going to happen in the future?

Vacation (2, Insightful)

mccoma (64578) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532287)

Dvorak must need to bump up his pages hits to have money to go on vacation

More advice for Apple (5, Funny)

Dasher42 (514179) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532317)

Also consider dropping OSX. We're all using OS/2 now.

Re:More advice for Apple (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532469)

Uh, that is good advice.

OS X is floundering down at 3 percent worldwide marketshare. We're all using Windows, and those who aren't using Windows are increasingly using Linux.

After getting dumped by IBM a couple years ago, Apple now has the reputation of being an overpriced niche x86 OEM with flaky, but nice looking, hardware.

Apple should stick with iPods...

Apple already reinventing the iPhone (3, Funny)

Mr.Progressive (812475) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532373)

Unless the company has several new models in the pipeline to release after the original offering, he says, they're likely to fail.



Good thing Apple is already working hard [theonion.com] to make sure the iPhone is laughably obsolete upon release.

I can think of a couple people who will buy one (3, Insightful)

bgfay (5362) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532383)

Namely nine out of every ten Apple devotees who love their Macs and have loved them for years.

Oh, and probably 3 out of ten iPod owners who think it would be cool to have their iPod and phone all in one.

And then there are the people who just have to have latest gadget.

Let's see, that adds up to...Dvorak being wrong again and again and again.

I'm not a Mac devotee, but even I can see that the iPhone has "cool" written all over it. People love having the hot new thing. The Razr is one example in the phone industry. The Prius is another in the auto industry. Hell, I even want an iPhone and I'm still using a cell-phone about the size of a brick. I think it was invented in 1983. I already own an iPod, but I want the iPhone too.

Remember, Dvorak prefers incendiary commentary over researched ideas.

Re:I can think of a couple people who will buy one (0, Redundant)

Seumas (6865) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532493)

There's no way in hell I'm going to buy one. I want my phone to do one simple thing. Make calls. A nice little phone that makes calls and has a long battery life. Then, for my music, I want an ipod. Not a crappy 2gb phone-merged piece of crap. I want a 300gb ipod (yes, I can dream).

Why do I need to have fifty devices all in one? All you end up with is fifty half-assed devices. Take a queue from the unix world and provide devices that do one thing and do that thing incredibly well. I'm not going to pay $500 for a brick of suck plus a couple hundred a month for all the extra pointless services.

And yes, I own Apple products - including a 17" powerbook and a 30" ACD yadda yadda.

Re:I can think of a couple people who will buy one (1)

togashi06 (1013825) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532863)

OTOH, how many pockets do you need to carry a phone, a camera, an mp3, agenda/pda... I'm all for the all-in-one devices. It's annoying to have your pockets so full of things you can barely walk...

The RAZR... (1)

IANAAC (692242) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532901)

Not sure that that's a good example.

Sure, everyone had to have one, myself included, but I have yet to meet a person that's owned one for any length of time and actually liked it.

The RAZRs were riddled with OS problems, bad voice quality, permanent dust under the screen, etc.

They were cool looking though.

As for me wanting an iPhone? I don't think so. I still prefer to have real buttons to press. It'll be interesting to see if Apple can sway enough people to prefer a total touch-screen experience to a tactile one.

Hate To Say It - I Agree (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532387)

I've never seen such a negative reaction to a Apple product before. Ever. And I go all the way back to Fat Mac days.

I think Apple has already done damage to their virtually do no wrong consumer electronics image they established with the iPod. I've see the abject horror people who are Apple product owners seeing the rabid Jobs fans slaver over the iPod as some sort of digital messiah and say to themselves "My god! I don't want to be any part of this crazy Apple cult"

The iPhone is giving Apple product owners a reputation that people who buy their products are a bunch of loonies who will buy anything Apple slaps an i infront of and add some nicely typeset marketing material.

Re:Hate To Say It - I Agree (1)

Dara Hazeghi (1076823) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532557)

John, is that you? Haven't you done enough trolling already?!!

well, I go back to the Apple ][ integer days (1)

swschrad (312009) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532613)

and I don't believe you. how's that for credibility ?!?

seriously, folks... when Apple innovates (first one-board computer, first consumer computer, first GUI computer under $40,000, Newton) they either hit or bust. it's the market, dummy.

when Apple has a triumph of vision and packaging (iMac, iPod, OC/X, iPhone) they haven't failed yet. anybody could have pulled the iPhone together. but nobody thought of it.

THAT'S where Apple shines, finding the right packaging and right mix of features.

Dvorak has stirred the waters, so he will get paid this week.

ATT Wireless and Apple get paid soon. big.

Re:Hate To Say It - I Agree (1)

SengirV (203400) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532965)

Paaaa-leeezzzzzz

EVERYONE blastesd the iPod when it 1st came out. $399 for a 5Gig MP3 player, when you can get a 128 meg one for $50 at the time? Everyone called the iPod the albatross that will finally sink Apple.

This comes no where close to the negative reception of the iPod from the "experts".

I didn't buy an iPod until the 3rd generation. I suspect I'll do the same with the iPhone, a long with a lot of other people.

Defining the market (3, Insightful)

truthsearch (249536) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532441)

Obviously every other comment is calling Dvorak an idiot. But I'd like to point out what specifically makes him wrong in this case. Apple has the rare ability to define a market. The mp3 player market, while small, existed before Apple's entry. Now many people call it "the iPod market". Apple basically defined the personal computer and helped spawn the market.

Apple has the brand recognition and design abilities to redefine the mobile phone market. Dvorak's assumption is that nothing every changes. But he forgets that Apple often seems to know what people want before they even know they want it.

Re:Defining the market (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532605)

The iPod was also fairly competitively priced. This phone costs twice as much as comparable phones, has less features, and is locked to a single network.

Re:Defining the market (4, Insightful)

king-manic (409855) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532677)

The two markets you mentioned (non CD based music players and personal computers) were both infant niche markets when Apple stepped in. I doubt they will fall on their faces but the cell market is a fairly mature industry. Time will tell. I for one will not be getting one asmy Motorola Q has 70% of the functionaity and I can't justify dropping $600+ to bridge the gap.

Why does Dvorak get posted here? (4, Funny)

coolgeek (140561) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532449)

Article by John Dvorak
(-99,000) Troll

Me to Dvorak... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532485)

I hate you.....You are a babbling idiot!!!

The credentials speak for themselves (5, Funny)

Wuhao (471511) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532491)

It's a good thing Dvorak is an intelligent, experienced businessman who has himself run a highly successful, multi-billion dollar company similar to Apple, and not just some blabbering wash-up with a column.

Attention Windows Clickarounds (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532507)

Yeah i'm talking to you. The wannabe computer programmer who thinks they are good at computers because they can click around the computer enough times and find the reboot button and 'fix' an inherently flawed windows system. You think you're cool because you can pirate photoshop but not know anything about it, get Microsoft Office for free but have the literacy of a 1st grader when writing a paper, and get a copy of Norton Anti-virus because your inherently flawed system is useless without Administrative privileges. Get a clue, you are not smart, you are just a corporate sheep for a company that will bury you if you ever tried to write any software that did anything remotely useful. You are a clickaround and all you know if your ugly gray existence that is Windows.

Want the sourcecode to windows vista?

head -n 1000000 /dev/random > Windows.com

He'll probably eat his words! (4, Insightful)

jhfry (829244) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532515)

Apple has never been afraid to enter a competitive market... in fact I think they purposely identify markets where innovation seems to have slowed and bring a product that shows the competition where they failed.

I am confident that the iPhone will be a success. Apple has been VERY good at seeing it's niche and developing the ideal product to fill that void. Once they have filled the niche, they are even better at attracting users who don't NEED the product by showing them a clean, functional, and enjoyable user experience that isn't offered by the competitors.

I am slowly becoming an Apple fanboy, and I hate to admit that. But when I compare their competitors products, I can rarely find a single one that so thoroughly meets it's customers expectations. Sure there are better music players than the iPod, better computers than the Mac, better STB's than the AppleTV, better media management apps than iTunes, and so on... but find one company that produces these products in such a way that they work as well together.

My family has recently become a Mac family, and I will get and iPhone for my wife and I because my experiences with other smart phones have all been mediocre at best, and I imagine that the iPhone will "just work" with my Mac. I could make anything work, given enough time, but the griping my wife will do when it doesn't "just work" isn't worth the cost savings. So I'll happily over pay for the iPhone.

Powerful advice (3, Insightful)

Random BedHead Ed (602081) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532523)

Wow, that's powerful advice. Apple is going to jump on this, and fast. I'm pressing refresh on Slashdot so I can be the first to read the next TFA linking to the Apple press release. I can see it now: Despite much work on our iPhone during the past five years, including Mac OS re-engineering and hardware design efforts, and despite notable interest on the part of the public, and despite our investments in marketing the product, and in licensing the iPhone's innovative multi-touch interface, and despite and our legally binding exclusive contract with AT&T Wireless, not to mention our legal agreements with Cisco, and despite ... oh why go on? Suffice to say we're canning it.

Re:Powerful advice (1)

jhfry (829244) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532629)

Suffice to say we're canning it
because JD told us too.

Re:Powerful advice (1)

jhfry (829244) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532667)

Damn I hate the submit button... that should be

"because JD told us to."

Just had to correct that before a grammar Nazi put me in a "concentration" camp for my lack of focus during proof reading.

Wow, this man is so brilliant (5, Funny)

joto (134244) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532575)

I can't understand why Apple haven't hired him yet. I mean, does there exist anyone that can beat his predictions, except perhaps Nostradamus?

Had the major companies listened to everything Dvorak says, they would have been rich by now!

So basically, he's saying... (2, Insightful)

Red Samurai (893134) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532639)

Don't try, because you'll probably fail. If everyone thought like that, we wouldn't be where we are today.

Competition makes everyone better. (4, Interesting)

zerofoo (262795) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532649)

The cell phone market is filled with phones that are difficult to use, unstable, and generally crap.

I have a Motorola Q and it SUCKS. Sure, it hooks up to exchange, and it is nice and small, but battery life sucks, voice recognition sucks, and it crashes more than Eddie Griffin driving an Enzo.

I can't tell you how many times I've looked at phone interfaces from LG, Samsung, Motorola and Nokia and thought the designers were all on crack.

Apple NEEDS to show the world how to make a phone. God help us if they don't.

-ted

Re:Competition makes everyone better. (1)

BobMcD (601576) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532943)


Competition _IS_ a good thing, but why are we assuming that Apple can even make a workable phone?

I have used and deployed enough phones to agree that they do all need some improvement, but I also see the wisdom in doubting that Apple is a phone-making company. An iPod and a smart phone have some overlap, but they're also vastly different. Sometimes in non-obvious ways.

Not every attempt to innovate will lead to progress, either. N-Gage, anyone? Did the fact that Nokia can make good phones somehow automatically enable them to compete with the GameBoy? No. And in the process, they made a horrible phone.

Why does a good iPod automatically equate to a good phone? Can someone please fill me in???

Re:Competition makes everyone better. (1)

prelelat (201821) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533181)

Even if apple does release a phone with an amazing interface, it will be 2 weeks before the other cellular companies steal the idea and put it on their own phones. Not like its hard to modify a gui. It does have features that other phones don't currently have namely its an ipod. But will most people throw down 600 dollars for a phone on top of a contract? Especially when LG or Motorola just copied their interface.

Apple is not going to fail thats not what I'm saying. I just think its too early to say if they are going to dominate the market like they did with the ipod. They probably will redefine it though, and thats good for everyone.

Re:Competition makes everyone better. (1)

PurifyYourMind (776223) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533193)

I've got a Motorola v3 razr and in many ways, it's quite worse than my first cell phone, those humble, old-school Nokias. See, on the Nokia, there was a number-number-number combination for every operation. Using it was fast, simple, intuitive. With these new phones, you have to manually scroll through menus, wait for the display to catch up with your input, etc. It's a royal pain.

And I don't see any reason you can't have the features that marketing loves (camera, streaming video, whatever crap they want to put in) without also leavign the basic functions alone--address book, dialing, changing LCD brightness, etc. Why not just have a "basic" mode and then be able to switch over to a fancy bullshit mode?

Man, it really frustrates me.

Dvorak underestimates consumers (1, Troll)

wobblie (191824) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532723)

He fails to recognize it doesn't matter what Apple does, it has a fan base that will buy anything it produces, whether it works or not. I guarantee you it will express exactly who you are, and that's what matters!

Re:Dvorak underestimates consumers (1)

sarahbau (692647) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532935)

He fails to recognize it doesn't matter what Apple does, it has a fan base that will buy anything it produces, whether it works or not. I guarantee you it will express exactly who you are, and that's what matters!
I think he does recognize this. Dvorak has been an Apple hater at least since 1994 or so, when he had a column in MacUser magazine (always anti-Apple). He knows that Apple fans will get angered by the negative things he says. If he said things like "I think the iPhone will be great," people wouldn't post his stuff on Slashdot. He knows his trolling will get publicity.

Apple has nothing to fear of (1)

extern_void (1041264) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532737)

"There is no evidence that people want to use these things." -Dvorak, about Apple's
mouse introducion

...and it has nothing to do with sex!
Check it out [wikipedia.org]

Phones vs IPods (2, Interesting)

rueger (210566) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532759)

Apple may have lucked out with the iPod - let's face it, any new product launch is a gamble, especially into a product for which you have no previous background.

I have to think though that trying to break into the already pretty mature cel phone market is an entirely different thing.

The market for iPods was largely wide open - most people who bought were moving over from CD or cassette players, and represented a pretty much untapped population.

The iPhone though will have to convince existing cel phone owners to change hardware, and in some case change service providers. That's a much tougher sell, especially when you're charging up front for a phone when most providers offer a phone for "free."

If I were marketing this thing I'd sell it as an upgrade for existing iPod owners, a newer better iPod that just happens to also include a phone.

Re:Phones vs IPods (2, Insightful)

shoptroll (544006) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532955)

Except for the fact that the hard drive capacity is a lot less than the standard iPods.

Yes it looks sleek. I can justify merging two devices and making something just as functional as the two of them already. But, can I justify $600 for a phone and smaller drive iPod? Seeing how I can get the basic cell phone for free, and a larger iPod for $300...

The iPhone is a nice solution, but I don't know how many people are willing to pay for it.

I really want to say after watching the PS3 crash and burn at $600, I'm afraid of the same happening here, but I have a little more faith in Apple pulling this off.

Shut up... (4, Interesting)

7Prime (871679) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532781)

Ya know, like how the iPod was going to destroy the prestine image of Apple back in 2001? What a fucking idiot this guy always seems to be. Sure the iPhone isn't going to break any records out of the gate, but its something to grow on. It's the way things have to work: the first adopters are always going to be techies, who want the most features possible... this subsidizes the marketing of lower-end models which target the mainstream consumer. It's a good business strategy when trying to bring out a new type of gadget.

The Zune failed because it tried to copy something that was already on the market, but started with the high end. The opposite would have been better, here, they should have started with really low-end models and worked their way up, because Microsoft wasn't really aiming to establish a new kind of device. The iPhone, on the other hand, is really pushing to try and bring a fairly unique kind of device into the mainstream market place, so they have to start at the top.

There's a reason Dvorak never gets hired for consulting work, he has no idea what goes into a good business strategy. I don't know why we even post his fluff on here any more. I say slashdot just ignore him from now on, and he'll eventually go away.

I'll give him this (2, Interesting)

Jaeph (710098) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532799)

Having read the article (omg, ban him from slashdot!), I will give Dvorak this: the cell phone market is nothing like the mp3 market that Apple helped to create. The situations are very different, so you can't expect a success like the ipod. Of course, you almost never get successes like the ipod in business, so that really isn't saying much.

-Jeff

P.S. The rest of what he said regarding fashion, etc, I have no idea. Personally I think price tag, batteries, memory, calling plan, and the 3G aspect will tell the tale more than fashion. So JD and I may come to the same conclusion, but from completely different logic chains.

Re:I'll give him this (1)

sgauss (639539) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532967)

It's all to easy to dismiss what Dvorak says, but the cell phone market is different. A year ago the Razr was the shiznit, this year there are rumblings that Motorola's CEO will get dropped. And Zander wouldn't be the first one to lose his job because Motorola has had a hard time following the Razr up.

Re:I'll give him this (1)

iPaul (559200) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533103)

I don't know about that, but fashion is a pretty powerful motivator. There is a good chunk of research to support the notion that people make their decisions and then find justifications for the decision. People spend much more money on purchases like automobiles, granite kitchen counters, and stainless steel appliances than they will on phones, based largely on fashion.

Inconceivable (1, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532859)

As I told you, it would be absolutely, totally, and in all other ways inconceivable. There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive, and there is no evidence that it can play the game fast enough. - Out of curiosity, why do you ask?

Synonyms (1)

Tau Neutrino (76206) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532895)

The first three tags on this story are "Dvorak," "idiot" and "troll."

Talk about redundancy.

Well, in spite of being Dvorak (3, Insightful)

Bullfish (858648) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532897)

He did say one truth which is that the cell phone business is a buzz saw. It is unknown at this time whether "Apple cool" will be enough. There are a lot of players in the market already, and some very good players that know the market. Apple managed to beat the odds with the iPod, whether or not it will with the iPhone remains a big maybe. The other truth he touched on is that people who follow "cool" are notoriously fickle.

ma?8e (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532899)

God damned shitty web site!!!! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18532903)

I got four paragraphs into the damned thing and was fed up; I'm on IE (at work) and every ten seconds a fucking dialog box popped up asking me if I wanted to debug MarketWatch's poorly written javascript. The stupid fucktard who wrote it must have somehow gotten javascript into an infinite loop. I dodn't think ANYBODY could progarm that badly!

What? The? Fucking? Hell?!?!?!?! Shitty shitty shitty!!!! God DAMN but that's annoying. No fucking wonder nobody reads the fucking articles here! Damn it! I wonder whet the javascript was supposed to do? Update the cookie every five seconds? FUCK!!!

Anybody got a link to a cached copy minus the poorly written javascript? Jesus, I can't believe somebody's actually getting PAID for such poor work. That's supposed to be a professional web site? Jesus H. Christ!!!!

Who the Hell is Dvorak? (1)

Doc Ruby (173196) | more than 7 years ago | (#18532905)

Who cares what Dvorak says? What reason is there to listen to him? He isn't even the guy after whom the interesting keyboard [wikipedia.org] , the obscure cryptography based on it, or anything else.

He's been totally wrong about Apple [wikipedia.org] all the time, including such fundamentals of whether people would use a "mouse".

Enough of this clown. Steve Jobs should just take him behind the woodshed and spank him down once and for all.

My Least Favorite Twit (1)

nearlygod (641860) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533019)

After listening to him on TWiT for the past two years, it is pretty obvious that he will say anything in the name of self promotion. That being said, I kinda agree with him this time. I don't see how the iPhone can not fail. Even if it is an average success, the amount of hype that surrounds it will make it seem like a failure and unless new and better models come out a lot more often that the current iPod upgrade schedule it will be forgotten once everyone buys a new phone in 12-24 months. nearlygod

How many multibillion $ companies did Dvorak run? (1)

gelfling (6534) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533073)

Seriously, who is this guy?

Zonk/Dvorak Double Whammy (0, Troll)

g051051 (71145) | more than 7 years ago | (#18533157)

It's another terible post from a terrible writer approved by the worst slashdot editor. At least Zonk stopped being the dupe master...but he makes the worst decisions about what to post.
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