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US, Asia, Europe Ceding Web Dominance

Zonk posted more than 7 years ago | from the hello-new-friends dept.

The Internet 123

An anonymous reader writes "A new study shows that presence of the US, Asia, and Western European countries on the web is strongly declining. Newly internet-empowered countries are booming; many geographical regions are showing exponential growth, including Eastern Europe and South America. Chris Harrison explains: 'Countries that have never been able to place a website in the top 500 are now pushing dozens of established websites out of this prestigious list. This trend is both recent (within the last two years) and accelerating. Interestingly, Asia is seeing it's presence eroded the fastest, especially China.'"

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Not really surprising (2, Insightful)

softwareengineer99 (1077967) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737247)

This is not really surprising as the most population of the US was an early adapter. Now that the remaining world is getting hold of it, their presence is growing.

Re:Not really surprising (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737449)

Yep, bu Slashdot will always be just an N .American thing.

Re:Not really surprising (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737979)

nein!

Re:Not really surprising (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738595)

9? Wow, I didn't know there were that many non-Americans here!

Re:Not really surprising (4, Insightful)

smallfries (601545) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740281)

It is not really suprising that statistics can be made to say anything that you want. It would be suprising if the web presence of the US / Europe / Asia was in decline. What could cause this momentous change in direction? Is this a new trend that could change the face of the world as we know it???

Err, no. It's just some twat pumping traffic to his site. So lets look at what he's done shall we:
      * Traffic is declining to first-world web domains!!!
No, not true. The relative share of domains in the top-500 has decreased. Overall traffic and numbers of domains are still increasing. Ahh, so what is being measured as a "top-500" site? Obviously we can bias this any way we want. Does it explain anywhere on the site how this measurement is performed.... no.

      * All URL's are geographically based!!!
No, .com does not imply an American company. So the shift in traffic from generic TLD's to country code TLD's for sites in this mythical "top-500" could be explained by a change in presence. That companies no longer want a generic TLD for a "global presence" and instead want a national image. That would be an interesting explanation of the "data", but no, lets go for a screaming headline to pump up traffic in our slashvertisment.

      * Believe what I've told you!!!
We have bold claims about traffic to a wide range of internet domains. There is no description on the site of how the data is gathered. Is this opt-in traffic reporting? Does this guy happen to own a large amount of internet infrastructure? Is it one of the largest benign bot-nets in existence? Or is it the answer behind door D...

Complete, and utter, bullshit.

Hi nigger! (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737251)

Welcome to America. The cotton fields are to your left.

Africa? (5, Interesting)

bhouston (788429) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737283)

I noticed in Chris Harrison's website a lot of talk of "the rest of the world enters front and center stage" but while he discussed North America, Europe, Asia and South America, he didn't mention Africa at all. Any word on what's up with Africa and internet usage, let alone the most popular domains? I know little about this subject, but am curious now.

Re:Africa? (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737317)

Dude, most Africans are struggling to find enough food to keep them alive for another day. They really don't give a fuck about the Internet, OLPC, Live Aid, or anything else from the west.

Re:Africa? (5, Interesting)

imemyself (757318) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737345)

That might be the case in central Africa, but I would think that it might be a little different in more industrialized nations like Egypt and South Africa. I've heard of bloggers in Egypt several times (one that got arrested IIRC), so I'm assuming that the Internet is atleast somewhat common there.

Re:Africa? (3, Informative)

LiquidCoooled (634315) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737421)

There is a thriving Egyptian Linux user community out there.
We don't hear as much as we should do, but that's likely to be a language barrier rather than technological.
Its much like knowing there is a great Chinese internet population, but a totally different (and relatively rare) thing to speak to 'native' folks without much Western custom imparted.

I hope Googles auto-translation thing hits the spot.

http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=egypt+linux +users [google.co.uk]

Re:Africa? (2, Funny)

marafa (745042) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738701)

i zbeak ze london very best!! ;)
___
greetz go out to eglug and arabeyes dudes and geekettes reading /. !

Re:Africa? (5, Informative)

alienmole (15522) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737475)

Googling for "site:za" brings up 16 million hits, so there's some activity there, but compare that to 7 billion pages in the .com domain. That's obviously not an entirely fair comparison, since .com is used globally, but it gives some idea.

Companies like Amazon have development offices in South Africa, to exploit cheap talent. But in general, although South Africa is industrialized, the proportion of the population wealthy enough to have Internet access is pretty small. Here's an article, Internet Access in South Africa, 2002 [theworx.biz] , which suggests 3.1 million users at the end of 2002, and that number wasn't growing fast. Costs for Internet access are still relatively high.

Re:Africa? (5, Informative)

Telvin_3d (855514) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737649)

A better comparison for your "site:za" (South Africa) might be "site:ca" (Canada).

South Africa, population 47 million
Canada, population 32 million

South Africa .za web presence 16 million
Canada .ca web presence 107 million

That's quite the divide, isn't it?

Re:Africa? (1)

alienmole (15522) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738781)

Very good idea, thanks. I actually tried checking .us originally myself (it has 56 million), but of course no self-respecting US company uses the .us domain. ;)

Re:Africa? (1)

larry bagina (561269) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737895)

.za can be used for domain naming tricks ... hu.za, li.za, goat.za, etc.

Re:Africa? (1)

DrMrLordX (559371) | more than 7 years ago | (#18739323)

piz.za time!

Re:Africa? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738009)

"Companies like Amazon have development offices in South Africa, to exploit cheap talent."

Versus US overpriced non-talent?

Proof, evidence, examples, anecdote? Why is it that when a company sets up outside the US, it's because of the difference in labor cost, not the quality or pool of resources available there. If they set up in the US, it's okay, they're smarter--except every education "list" or freedom or what not always seems to show industrialized nations aren't really all that they are cracked up to be.

Not every part of the world outside the US is an exploitation zone.

Furthermore, I've seen nothing to suggest people in South Africa are less talented, so why shouldn't Amazon go there for the same product? Maybe they're more talented, have better lines, speak English very well, have an educated workforce, less SEC-like scrutiny regulations, an enabling law, tax breaks, etc. This is a world economy afterall; are you belly-aching because our asses are getting handed to us?

Re:Africa? (2, Interesting)

alienmole (15522) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738761)

Wow, you're sure projecting a whole lot of stuff there. I didn't say anything about "smarter", "less talented", "more talented", or "non-talent" on either side. Nor did I say "overpriced". It's just a simple economic fact that a U.S. dollar goes a hell of a lot further in South Africa than it does in the U.S. As it happens, I'm originally South African myself, I just happen to be living in the U.S. -- to exploit rich customers, you might say. So I have some experience of both sides.

The whole point of "exploiting cheap talent" is the assumption that the talent in question is at least roughly of equal quality. Whether it's a bit better or worse isn't important, compared to the huge freaking inequality in costs. You can list as many other possible factors as you like, but cheaper labor is by far the primary one, because of the simple fact that in software development, labor is by far the biggest single cost. I'm a software developer, and I do work for companies that also do outsourcing of their development to various places, and my experience in talking to the managers involved is that it's all about cost, which stands to reason if you have any idea of the relative costs involved.

This is a world economy afterall; are you belly-aching because our asses are getting handed to us?
No bellyaching here, I love the fact that it's a world economy. I have no idea whose asses you're talking about -- I'll guess "American programmers", but in that case you've maybe mistaken me for Lou Dobbs.

Re:Africa? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18741625)

Why is it that when a company sets up outside the US, it's because of the difference in labor cost, not the quality or pool of resources available there.

Why? Because the reason they do it is ALWAYS because of cost, are you new or just hopelessly naieve? Or maybe a shill for some third world code factory?

South Africa (5, Informative)

mac1235 (962716) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737491)

The infrastructure is good here, but there is a monopoly carrier, Telkom. Bandwidth is so exorbitant overseas hosting is common. Unfortunately this is not likely to change soon. see http://www.hellcom.co.za/ [hellcom.co.za] for a Telkom hate site, or google "incompetent idiot", the first result is the one you want.

Re:South Africa (2)

iminplaya (723125) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737663)

...google "incompetent idiot", the first result is the one you want.

And many the other results show she's in good company :-)

Re:Africa? (1)

marafa (745042) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738651)

whazzup?

Re:Africa? (1)

GnuDiff (705847) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738669)

There is plenty of Egyptian WoW players on European servers.

Re:Africa? (1)

bhouston (788429) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737349)

AC wrote: "most Africans are struggling to find enough food to keep them alive for another day" That is the case for some Africans, especially the ones you see on TV in those "sponsor a child" shows, but the whole continent isn't starving. AIDS right now is a much better deal that starvation I understand.

Re:Africa? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738159)

"a better deal"?

Re:Africa? (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737355)

I am an African prince. If you help get my website out of this country onto the top 500 list I will share millions of US dollars with you.

ATTN: SWITCHEURS! (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737763)

If you wish Xcode would reformat your code for consistency, GTFO.
If you've ever typed a backslash outside of ASCII art, GTFO.
If you're wondering why your desktop icons march from right to left, GTFO.
If you can't intuit your way from HyperTalk to AppleScript, GTFO.

Bandwagon-jumpers are not welcome among real Mac geeks [atspace.com] . Keep your filthy PC fingers to yourself.

Re:ATTN: SWITCHEURS! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738243)

If you've never cursed OSType and resource forks, DIAF.
If you've never screamed at a Sad Mac, DIAF.
If you don't know the significance of 68k, PowerPC, and X86, DIAF.
If you're still using a one button mouse, DIAF.

I bet you wish your googlebomb was this clever: http://it.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=230807&cid= 18733137 [slashdot.org]

Re:ATTN: SWITCHEURS! (-1, Offtopic)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738483)

Huh. That's funny, I recognize that, having written it myself more than a year ago. Glad to see another Mac user has taken it upon him or herself to help spread the message. Thanks for pointing it out.

Re:ATTN: SWITCHEURS! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738253)

Well done AC! You finally modified the troll! I was getting bored with knowing what Cmd-Shift-[1|2] did and having fixed opinions of Firefox and Maximize in OSX and knowing what Clarus was. Seeing the same old troll over and over again, I was beginning to believe Mac users weren't creative. [/sarcasm].

By the way consider that GTFO. You post this anti-PC troll so often its clear you are a dweeb who lives in his mama's basement and eats microwaved dinners every day.

Mobile phones (1)

essence (812715) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737571)

I remember seeing on a Bob Geldof docco that Africa is the largest growing market for mobile phone sales, and that mobile phone towers were popping up everywhere.

I don't know how factual that is though.

Re:Africa? (4, Informative)

djupedal (584558) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737617)

Any word on what's up with Africa and internet usage, let alone the most popular domains?

Based on the contracts I've been validating over the last six months (w/the Chinese govt. making loans to help them buy such things...from Chinese suppliers, of course), Africa is just now getting the hardware to support a telecom infrastructure. I'd give it at least another 24 months before it could even think about penetrating any part of CH's listings.

Re:Born Free (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738909)

I've read that the issue is with the continent's ISP's servers which, for the most part, still wander the Serengeti, wild and free. Great herds of email and DNS servers, always on the move, migrating north after the drought, back south in spring for the rains, robotically, fruitlessly pinging each other in a quest for the elusive phat pipes to the internet.

-James Earl Jones voice-
Unfortunately, we are destroying their habitat at an unprecedented pace, by restricting their movement with proprietary software and saturating their fledgling IT economy with DRM into every facet of their culture - it is speculated that we may be losing as many as 3 (three) unique email jokes PER DAY. Although many of us still offer aid by "forward-all"ing the same old emails to the dark continent, less than ten percent actually make it their destination, as Nigeria has begun the unsustainable harvest of ALL "greater-than" signs from as many emails as it is able to intercept.

-My own voice-
Stop the madness!!

Liberal web hosting? (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737297)

So how much of this is this because small countries have more liberal (Sigh. I mean "freer", not the wierd-ass american usage) web laws to get the business the old guard legally exclude? - e.g. porn, stuff that violates the old guard's draconian copyright and patent monopoly laws, dubious financial stuff, blogs critical of the government and military, etc?

Re:Liberal web hosting? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737703)

It doesn't seem to be that simple. Look at Sweden for example (liberal and small). Since mid 2005, it has tanked. see: http://www.chrisharrison.net/projects/trafficvis/w esteurodomains.html [chrisharrison.net] In fact, many european countries and Canada and Australia have similar trends.

Re:Liberal web hosting? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738205)

I'm not sure that means anything. It isn't tracking usage, it is tracking the number of sites in the top 500. Unless we know the distribution function it is meaningless. You could theoretically have lots of sites joining together under one domain (like blogger.com). Now they would no longer be counted in .se.

Want to know why? (2, Funny)

RealEstateGuy (1088269) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737341)

All the good .com names are taken and used for pay per click domain parking!

Re:Want to know why? (1)

v1 (525388) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737849)

what I don't get is why that is a working business model. There are so many ways to toss an ad in front of someone that is not interested in your product, why are the "related search" parked domain sites proffitable? If you are an advertiser surely you would pay more for an impression on someone that had even a small chance of really being interested in your product, rather than an ambush ad? I don't get why they pay anything significant for those clicks. 100% of the time when I typo a url or something like that and land on a "related searches" page I close it immedately and try again. I guess there must be more people/(suckers) that click on the ads in those pages. I suppose you can call them the ones that are ultimately responsible for the problem, since if there were no payoff they would knock the crap off.

Re:Want to know why? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737935)

No, all the good .com TLDs are taken because it was allowed to happen. People outside of the U.S. (external citizens aside) should not be permitted to have a .com TLD unless they can show they have a business within the country to be associated with that domain.

It shits me to tears to see a commercial on television advertising some product and then giving a .com TLD hostname instead of a .co.uk or a .com.au for example (wherever the advertisers business operates within the above limitations).

Re:Want to know why? (1)

Fred_A (10934) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740053)

People outside of the U.S. (external citizens aside) should not be permitted to have a .com TLD unless they can show they have a business within the country to be associated with that domain.
So what's .us for again ?

Re:Want to know why? (1)

AtomicBomb (173897) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740311)

In fact, it is a good indication why the top 500 site is a bad indication for web dominance. If you are a sucessful global company (e.g. Sony, Siemens, Samsung, same for internet companies like google, yahoo, eBay etc), you tend to use a .com domain name at the top and direct the traffic to the localised version in accordance to the selected language. In that case, it is really not that sure what the top 500 site statistics mean. For example, a hypothetical site www.example.com can choose either www.example.co.uk or www.example.com/uk for its British localised version. This affects the statistics for arbitrary reasons.

Also, the beauty of web is decentralisation. Suppose all 1 million bloggers in my country all choose one out of two main blogger sites, then you will see both of them enter top 500. Suppose now we have 2 million bloggers, but the market is now more diversified and spread amongst 10 blogger sites, the statistics may well show 0 sites out of top 500 (and wrongly suggested that Internet is no longer popular in my region).

Aggregated access data for each region is a much more reliable indication if can be obtained....

In other news! (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737343)

Developing world developing.

Re:In other news! (1)

keeboo (724305) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737511)

> Developing world developing.

Not sure... Seeing what my fellow brazilians did to Orkut, sometimes it feels like it's going backwards.

Re:In other news! (1)

313373_bot (766001) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737633)

Really? Perhaps Orkut's idea and/or implementation was flawed from the beginning, and abuse/misuse just exposed that? (Disclaimer: I have never accessed Orkut - I have no sympathy for "invitation-only" special clubs.)

In other news! (1)

FMota91 (1050752) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738417)

Developers developing developing developers. Developing developers develop in developing developments. Developing development developing developing developers.... .... .... Yes!

"Ceding"? (2, Funny)

Goaway (82658) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737431)

They're going, oh well, we're not gonna be doing this anyway, you can take over the internet for us?

In China's case ... (1, Redundant)

ScrewMaster (602015) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737471)

they've probably been doing this "eroding" on their own, what with their having the world's most powerful national firewall and all. And I doubt they care very much whether the rest of us think their position in the Web is being eroded.

Re:In China's case ... (1)

richdun (672214) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737921)

Wish I had mod points...

You're probably on to something there. The popular idea that China is the next economic and social superpower has a major flaw - they're still politically communist, regardless of their market practices. That'll hold back true expansion no matter what you make for the rest of the world or how much you sell it for.

The "next big thing"? India. Maybe Eastern Europe, but doubtful. Russia is probably closer to a civil war (or revolution) than anyone wants to admit, and Iron Curtain or no, a destabilized Russia will always weigh heavily on Eastern Europe, at least until the EU can solidify there.

And that's the Saturday Night Political Rant. Join us next week to hear why Microsoft should buy the UN to curb Google.

Whole lotta nothin'... (4, Informative)

evilviper (135110) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737485)

This is really pointless. From TFA:

"Despite the Internet being a global network, the US has traditionally dominated."
Then later:
"The Internet is still dominated by the United States,"

In other words... Nothing has changed. Figures indicate Eastern Europe is now up to 1%, compared to the US, and South America is nearing 2%.

Good to see it happening, but this is statistical static, worthy of a one-sentence mention in the on-screen ticker of whatever stock/business news program you watch... A complete non-story.

Re:Whole lotta nothin'... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737625)

It still dominates, but what is important is that the decline has begun. Also, drops of 50% in Asia is very significant! Likewise are 500-1000% rises in Eastern Europe.

Re:Whole lotta nothin'... (2, Insightful)

mpiktas (740253) | more than 7 years ago | (#18739005)

Decline, or hiccup? I think that though graphs are pretty, analysis is a bit poor. So South America and Eastern increased their presence, so? US still dominates big time. Also I noticed that in Poland, one of the top sites is google.pl. It is still US company site. What this analysis lacks is greater insight into those 500 sites. Also 500% sure looks impressive growth, but when you consider, that it all happens in region below 5%, it is just noise. I would like to see how the trends develop, three years time is too short to make any far fetching conclusions.

And what the hell does it matter? (2, Insightful)

Sycraft-fu (314770) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738163)

The good news is that there really isn't a limit to the Internet. I mean I suppose some day we will run in to physical limits on computing power/storage and thus run in to limits as to how much there can eventually be, but for now the net can grow as needed. Other countries having more does not imply the US will have less. In fact, it implies that everyone will have more since we all have access to it.

It stands to reason that, percentage wise, the US will start falling since it is getting somewhat saturated. If you get to the point that literally everyone has a web page (we aren't their yet but blogs are pushing that direction) where else is there to go? However that doesn't mean that the amount of US content or usage will be going down, just that it won't be going up at as fast a rate as elsewhere since it is near maximum.

As you said, whole lot of nothing. You can sum it up as "People like the Internet and usage continues to grow." Really? I never would have guessed :P.

Re:Whole lotta nothin'... (1)

LynnwoodRooster (966895) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738233)

Dude, this is Web 2.0 . You gotta get with the new PARADIGM... It's not how BIG you are it's how fast you're growing! Hey, a 1000% growth in the last 3 years is nothing to sneeze at, never mind it's 10 people to 1000 people...

Remember, even if you lose a dollar a transaction, you'll make it up in volume!

Re:Whole lotta nothin'... (1)

hey! (33014) | more than 7 years ago | (#18741171)

Well, to borrow a phrase from Churchill, perhaps the news here is not the beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning.

Oh well (1)

timeOday (582209) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737487)

Internet presense itself isn't a limited commodity, so they can have at it. On the other hand, to the extent that having popular websites corresponds to economic development, this does signal increased competition for both natural resources and geopolitical influence (which, if not zero sum games, are fairly close to it).

The observation about China's slow internet growth is interesting - maybe their draconion Internet policies are starting to bite. Might this be an early sign of China hitting an economic glass ceiling imposed by their social policies?

Re:Oh well (1)

ScrewMaster (602015) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737677)

Might this be an early sign of China hitting an economic glass ceiling imposed by their social policies?

I'd say it's more an indication that their firewall works both ways.

Re:Oh well (1)

Antique Geekmeister (740220) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740613)

True. But watch out for the national policies that are embodied by new Internet policies. Taxation and censorship are especially sensitive to odd local policies being spotwelded on top of international infrastructure: take a look at the Spamhaus lawsuit in the US for examples of such oddness, and Chinese censorship of Google results with Google cooperation, and AT&T's cooperation in tapping of the very backbones of US Internet traffic without warrants.

if this (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737531)

if this continues and my porn ends up in some african language like ubuntu, i'll be mighty upset.

Perhaps not so trustworthy (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737615)

I'd be trusting of these statistics, If he knew the correct country code for Ireland: .ie and not .il (that's the one for Israel).

As broadband build-out continues, this isn't news (1)

postbigbang (761081) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737691)

Yes, there are lots of people out there and some of them are actually getting those derned computing things with a real darned hookup to the InterWeb.

As the Internet is the ultimate flattener of the earth, there are no surprises here. What's interesting is that many thought that everything from google to ebay would dominate the world's commerce. Well, it did for a while, and naturally (lacking cultural adaptation to specific international markets) they're failing where other sites are now quite culturally adapted and are doing very well.

This will continue to occur until we understand more about each other's buying habits, distribution infrastructure and so on. Then, the best site wins, whether it's the next GooTube in China or Cabernet Wine site in Chile. My hopes: competition will continue to improve the bigger brands, keep them 'honest' and competitively priced.

american tlds? (1)

MisterBuggie (924728) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737749)

I just thought I'd point out that .com, .org and .net are far from being US specific. In fact it's very common for non-english speaking websites to use those tlds.That and a lot of the top sites are multinationals that use their main tld to also host all their websites for the different countries they do business in.

Factor in microsoft's pc domination and suddenly it becomes obvious that MS products and services are bound to appear at the top. Oh, and of course english being the main language for international exchanges, that just screws things a bit more.

Unless the .us becomes pretty much mandatory for american sites and .com is reserved for multinationals that aren't counted in any particular country, the figures given don't mean squat...

true, but wrong. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737803)

Dot coms are used by international companies - True. But it is clear that international tlds are growing. It would be unusual for a US website to have an international tld. So it's safe to say the trend is from international companies shifting away from .coms or a growth in international websites. Either way, the stats still stand - international websites are seeing tremendous growth.

Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

mi (197448) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737775)

For creating the Internet, and for pushing the globalization to enrich the poor of the world to use it.

I'm holding the English edition of today's "The Japan Times", where it says: "Global economy best in 30 years".

We could do a lot better — various illiberals are holding us back — but we are still doing pretty well.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

plasmacutter (901737) | more than 7 years ago | (#18737847)

"Global economy best in 30 years"


i wonder how they measure that, because the middle class is eroding at an exponential rate, and real housing prices have now exceeded by a wide magin the realistic income of most americans.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738355)

Uhm, America isn't the entire world.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

cdrguru (88047) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738451)

It was "global" economy, not "American" economy.

The rest of the world is getting to be a lot better off as the comparatively weathly Americans come down a peg or two. Americans aren't saddled with 50-70% tax rates like much of the rest of the world. Americans aren't working in sweatshop conditions with the legal system of the country standing firmly behind the overseers.

But America is having its economy turned into one where only the highly intelligent knowledge workers have a job. Ordinary jobs requring ordinary skills will have been moved offshore - a lot today, all soon.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

plasmacutter (901737) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738717)

But America is having its economy turned into one where only the highly intelligent knowledge workers have a job. Ordinary jobs requring ordinary skills will have been moved offshore - a lot today, all soon.


funny how that's not happening in europe.

there is no excuse for the continued draining of the american economy into these places. if they want money they should do it themselves, not at the expense of our economy.

and if you dont believe our legal system is not standing firmly behind the overseers than youve had your head in the sand for decades.

finally, you act as if this is not only ok, but justified. I worked my ass off and now im facing absolutely zero job security and an ever shrinking job market after investing more than most of these offshore workers will make in a lifetime into education. they didnt, and youre rooting for them at my expense. fuck you.

No happening in Europe? (1)

Opportunist (166417) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738955)

You kidding? Pretty much every corporation here is pushing jobs eastwards. Romania is the new land of the gold rush for our companies, with cheap labour, an ok stability and a legal system that gives you pretty much the green light for anything you might want to do.

Our companies just started shipping jobs away, but that doesn't mean they don't do it, it only means that they're (as usual) about 5-10 years behind the US.

Re:No happening in Europe? (1)

plasmacutter (901737) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738987)

yes, but the european governments, for all their ills, have always been considerably more protective of labor than the us government.

probably because there is no party there which believes in voodoo economics like over here.

if it becomes a problem they will no doubt find a way to stop it.

meanwhile the US does absolutely nothing, and in fact has been allowing the accelaration of the process.

my generation will probably be the last generation to see any return at all from a college education, and forget ranks, i will probably actively discourage my children from the expense of a higher rank when it will likely bring no returns.

Re:No happening in Europe? (1)

Opportunist (166417) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740203)

Actually, governments here become more and more US'y. More power to corporations, less to the people. Free transfer of money, breaking down of borders, less protection for workers, less money for those actually doing the work.

The catchphrase for it all is to be "competitive" on the global market and protection of work places here which would be lost if we don't lower our standards to match east europe and asia. What I fail to see is how a work place in a sweatshop should be worthy of protection.

Re:No happening in Europe? (1)

plasmacutter (901737) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740927)

you can thank the EU for undermining individual national sovereignty and severely diluting the representation individuals in each nation receive.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

dbcad7 (771464) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740055)

There is no such thing as job security unless maybe your self employeed.. and even then you are at the whim of the market for your goods and services.

Since your in such an optimistic frame of mind, let me tell you something. That you worked hard and went to school, is admirable. That others may have just worked and not went to school is also admirable.. but neither road is a guarantee of anything. This is a fact of life, no matter what your degree was in. I have known lawyers that were unemployed.. I have met many salesmen with engineering degrees.. and I've met managers that didn't finish high school. That's life, and you can be pissed off about it, but you just live it and find your path.

Just one other thing.. you need to expand yourself a bit. There is a lot more to the world than the US, which is why you mistake global for US economy. I've been to Europe, and parts of eastern europe (which is a whole different thing by the way) and if you have any kind of empathy for people, you will be glad to see the economy improve for places like eastern europe.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

plasmacutter (901737) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740809)

my point was not one of entitlement, it was one of "by shipping increasingly skilled jobs overseas and/or importing H1b's to depress wages here, you are creating a disincentive to education".

this is illustrated best in the way they have been treating IT as a throwaway profession. the economy goes down and the it people take the brunt, then they start h1bing and offshoring to the point you have 30 year industry vets on dice talking about how they havent found a job in the past 1.5 years. As a result, cs majors have plummeted, people see what's going on and dont want to put in the work to be jerked around.

it's one thing to require hard work and competence, its quite another to demand 2 years of experience in the field industry wide (locking out new graduates), then after a couple years demand they train their replacements before theyre canned.

treating skilled labor like tissue is an excellent way to convince people not to pursue an education. it worked with CS.. and its doing a great job of discouraging me. if i had seen what i see now a few years ago i would not have bothered with the expense of higher rank, and if the current trends are any sign my generation may very well be the last to see meaninful returns from a college education. I mean i'm already having to shoot for twice the education my parents needed for the same real income, and thats a sign our standard of living is going down.

i'd welcome developments which enrich developing nations, but what's actually happening is the US is sinking to 'developing' status.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

drsquare (530038) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740965)

and if you dont believe our legal system is not standing firmly behind the overseers than youve had your head in the sand for decades.
America has minimum wage, welfare, free education, all sorts of safety nets, and favourable employment laws. American kids are not forced to work 100 hours a week to pay off their parents' debts.

I worked my ass off and now im facing absolutely zero job security and an ever shrinking job market after investing more than most of these offshore workers will make in a lifetime into education.
Such is capitalism. You have to take the rough with the smooth. It's not foreigners fault that America doesn't have socialised higher education. You educated yourself for your own benefits, so don't expect any sympathy when it doesn't go your way.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

servognome (738846) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738741)

and real housing prices have now exceeded by a wide magin the realistic income of most americans.
Housing affordability is better now than 25 years ago. The biggest problem is that most middle class Americans have decided to carry more debt which makes purchasing a home harder.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (2, Informative)

plasmacutter (901737) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738763)

Housing affordability is better now than 25 years ago. The biggest problem is that most middle class Americans have decided to carry more debt which makes purchasing a home harder.


what propaganda have you been reading?

inflation adjusted housing price indices graphed for the last hundred years. [eclectecon.com]

you have it wrong.. most middle class americans are seeing their wages fail to adjust upward to meet inflation due to h1b's and offshoring, and are being forced to run up their home equity like credit cards to maintain their current standard of living.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (3, Insightful)

stinerman (812158) | more than 7 years ago | (#18739033)

Indeed.

I'm looking at buying a home with my soon-to-be wife. The only houses that are even close to being affordable in the region [wikipedia.org] are those that have serious structural problems and need a decent amount of work. Even with an FHA loan, we're going to have a hard time making payments along with our student loans.

I recently read that in the 20s and 30s home loans usually had a 5 year term. Of course, now anything less than a 15-year term is rare with 30 and even 50-year mortgages becoming common. I'll be damned if I'm going to be paying on my house when I'm retired. But then again, at this rate I probably won't be retired when I'm in my mid-70s.

It is no laughing matter that our standard of living is falling and no one seems to give a damn.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18740505)

I think you may have misunderstood what you read about historical mortgage terms. From what I've read, interest-only loans with 5 year terms were particularly popular during the 20s. At the end of the 5 year term, the loan would be due in full (balloon payment), with none of the principal having been paid off (aside from perhaps a down payment to establish the loan). The homeowner's option at that point would be to sell - likely for a profit during those years - or enter a new mortgage agreement, likely with similar terms. You can still obtain such a loan, but I wouldn't recommend it.

If you've found information to the contrary, please share.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

servognome (738846) | more than 7 years ago | (#18739049)

inflation adjusted housing price indices graphed for the last hundred years.
That chart ignores the effect of mortgage rate changes and wage growth (though admittedly small recently) on affordability [frbsf.org] .

you have it wrong.. most middle class americans are seeing their wages fail to adjust upward to meet inflation due to h1b's and offshoring, and are being forced to run up their home equity like credit cards to maintain their current standard of living.
Wages have been stagnant when inflation adjusted. People have decided to borrow more to increase their standard of living rather than maintaining status quo.

I'm not saying that there isn't a growing wealth gap, because the top 1% are far and away gaining far more than the middle and lower classes, however, it's not a zero-sum game, just because the top 1% are gaining more wealth, the middle class isn't necessarily losing any.
Blaming things on H1b's and offshoring is shortsighted, as those have also been key contributors to economic growth and new American jobs. There are broken systems like taxes, social security, unfair foreign trade practices (which results in too much offshoring), and especially poor education funding (not just k-12, but also job re-training) which are contributing to the gap. We should also realize how we shoot ourselves in the foot with things like negative savings rates are also key contributors. There's been a nice rally in the stock market over the past few years, but too many of the middle class are paying for their $50k SUV (hey interest rates are low so I can afford it) so they don't take advantage.

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

plasmacutter (901737) | more than 7 years ago | (#18739085)

the whole point of the index is to measure median housing price as a percentage of median income.

therefore it by its nature takes income into account.

mortgage rate changes mean absolutely nothing in the long run because mortgage interest is tax deductible.

I dont live in cali or the northeast, i live in the atlanta metropolitan area, and housing prices have tripled in the last decade around here. have wages tripled?

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

Chrisje (471362) | more than 7 years ago | (#18739507)

> globalization to enrich the poor of the world

Hm.

I assume you haven't read Joseph Stiglitz' "Globalization and its malcontents". The problem with globalization is that you get institutions like the World Bank and the IMF that fuck up things for the nations they are "helping". I've read a large number of articles on globalization, and it's not all it's cracked up to be by the conservative money-brokers.

Globalization works best in an environment with free trade where developing nations are left in charge of the programs. A bottom-up approach if you will. As soon as the IMF and Co. step in and dictate the proceedings with their particular view of the world, you'll see that economies erode and the nations in question are thrown into steeper debts.

The United States, as Western Europe, are expert at furthering their own agenda and economic interest. "The Japan Times" might write something different here than "The Mogadishu Herald", given the fact that Japan cannot by any means be seen as a third-world country.

The statement "Global economy best in 30 years" begs the question: "For whom?"

Re:Thanks, in no small part, to America (1)

Chrisje (471362) | more than 7 years ago | (#18739523)

Erm... Globalization and its Discontents. Not Malcontents. That's a wee too negative, isn't it? Freudian slip, I guess.

Where are Canada, Australia, New Zealand? (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18737885)

Dividing the world into the US, Latin America, Europe, and Asia leaves some people out.

Re:Where are Canada, Australia, New Zealand? (2, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738149)

"Where are Canada, Australia, New Zealand?" Here: http://www.chrisharrison.net/projects/trafficvis/o therdomains.html [chrisharrison.net]

The international growth page shows everything else (there is about 30 domains represented) - http://www.chrisharrison.net/projects/trafficvis/I nternationalGrowth.html [chrisharrison.net]

Re:Where are Canada, Australia, New Zealand? (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738229)

No one significant.

Mud People (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738017)

Ignorant mud people. Giving backward primative tribal critters access to technology is not really a good idea.

Sure, they can fly planes into buildings. But they can no more build an airplane than they can build a skyscraper. Buy perhaps, but design and build? Never.

moD Up (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738191)

nigGe8ness? And Of a solid dose survive at all

You would think... (0)

FlyByPC (841016) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738245)

...that with all the pr0n out there, the West could come up with a few good dominatrices if we felt our dominance was slipping...

No chance (1)

Opportunist (166417) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738945)

Most prostitutes even here on the streets are from the Ukraine, so you can be sure that online, without the problem to come into the country first of all, it's even easier.

Face it, we lost the porn sector long, long time ago.

.net losing big time! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18738347)

Dude, who would have thought .net was dying so fast? But I guess it wasn't that popular to start with. Can anyone name one top .net site they visit regularly?

Daft OP (1)

GnuDiff (705847) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738635)

First of all, it is pure marketroid-type of BS to talk about "eroding" and "declining" "presence on the web", when in fact the links are to "Top 500" lists.

This gives the absolutely false impression as if the number of websites in US, Asia and Europe are _falling_, when in fact it is simply the number of websites in other regions that is catching up.

Secondly, thanks for putting in title "Europe is ceding web dominance" and then telling that Eastern Europe is on rise, showing to whoever may care that EEU is not part of Europe proper.

Piracy (1)

TheoMurpse (729043) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738641)

Of course Eastern Europe is making a better showing now! Now that the American versions are being forced off the interbutts, people are turning to our Russkie friends: crackz.ru, serialz.ru, and ALLOFFRIGGINMP3.COM.

Re:Piracy (1)

Opportunist (166417) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738927)

Let's flip the medal over and see the malware and phishing servers, and you get to see what the "freedom" there can be abused for, too.

For the very same reason why crack and IP-ignoring sites spring up in Russia and its former other Soviet Republics: Police has better and more important things to handle first before trying to crack down on criminals that don't do any damage to the local commerce.

Then again, if they did actually bother finding them, I'd prolly be down a job.

Re:Piracy (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18739041)

no, it's all the traffic going to busty.pl to gawk at those incredible women.

misleading (1)

totalctrl (974993) | more than 7 years ago | (#18738983)

nothing wrong about those numbers, but the conclusion doesn't seem so conclusive.

during the early stage of the development, there will be multiple players, but as time goes on, we usually see a convergence. however, that does not necessarily mean a decline of the development. altough there is no boundary on the net, the web sites in north america, europe, and asia mainly focus on and serve their own market. so a growth in one region won't direclty lead to a decline in another. the conclusion about china also seems strange. the internet penetration and the total number of web sites are still jumping fast. the traffic trend only shows the distrubution of the usage. it has nothing to do with the status outside of the "box".

Stupid summary, rubbish 'study' (1)

hcdejong (561314) | more than 7 years ago | (#18740839)

FTS: A new study shows that presence of the US, Asia, and Western European countries on the web is strongly declining.

No it's not, the % of total traffic that goes to these countries is declining. Harrison's page says nothing about the total amount of traffic over the period examined, so it's entirely possible that the absolute amount of traffic to these sites has risen.

Harrison's 'research', or at least the presentation thereof, stinks. He's playing with percentages to make the change seem more dramatic. The numbers on the front page don't add up, either.

Lies, damn lies and statistics, huh?

Re:Stupid summary, rubbish 'study' (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#18741099)

He makes no claim about traffic, just dominance. The top 500 sites seem like a good candidate to gauge this effect. Most likely, traffic is increasing across the board. Its just that international top level domains are growing faster, and pushing US (asia, EU) sites out of the top 500.

He also clearly states, "...it is simply not possible to examine every web site. However, the most popular web sites can be used to take a pulse."

The numbers on the first page don't add up to 500 because there are other geographical regions not included in the table.

Before we go too far with this ... (1)

ScrewMaster (602015) | more than 7 years ago | (#18741291)

define "Web Dominance".

Rebuttle: Web Dominance, Traffic, top 500? (3, Informative)

Chrios (514186) | more than 7 years ago | (#18741485)

I am the author of the linked page and have enjoyed reading your comments. I have made an addendum that addresses a number of your points:

"It should be noted that these trends are only based on the rank of top 500 most visited websites. While providing a good snapshot of web activity, the data does not necessarily scale to the entire web. However, it does provide a reliable measure for sites that are utilized by a broad spectrum of the population, such as search engines or news providers. These, in turn, provide a fairly accurate measure of how connected a country is.

Also, this analysis is only looking at rank movement and not web traffic. This was purposeful. Web dominance is an effect of top sites jostling - these are the big players that can exert the most political and social influence. The pure number of websites is less interesting, as it is more of an effect of the economy (i.e. when money is flowing, people setup websites for personal and small business use). Additionally, indications are that traffic is growing across the board. Thus, the trends noted here are most likely from new countries growing faster than old players."

Basically, it doesn't matter how many websites you have, it's how many important websites you have. If the US, Asia and Western Europe loose their dominance in the top 500, they will have no leg to stand on when trying to wrangle the internet and its politics. You can already see the international community starting to put pressure on the US to open the net. It is clear that pressure is only going to increase as US dominance erodes.

Also, I want to reiterate how fast this is happening. In July 2004, US, Asian, and Western European domains controlled 96% of 500 top websites! By January 2007 (just two and a half years later), that number has dropped to below 80%. And, this trend seems to be accelerating.

Chris Harrison
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