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How Big Will the iPhone Become?

Zonk posted more than 7 years ago | from the crushing-tokyo-big-or-just-andre-the-giant-big dept.

388

palewook writes "Combine the best elements of an iPod with a BlackBerry's addictive usefulness, and you may just get Apple's Next Big Thing. Around 2009, when the lower cost version of iPhone appears, Business Week believes the yearly market for iPhones could be over 10 billion dollars a year. Its an interesting prediction; if those numbers come to pass, iPhone could become a bigger source of revenue than the traditional iPod. 'The answer may not come until 2009. By then, Apple should have begun creating lower-cost iPhone variants to reach consumers scared off by the introductory $499 price. It also will probably have moved into overseas markets and cut deals with more carriers to utilize higher-speed wireless networks. So while most analysts look for Apple to sell around 3 million units this year and 10 to 12 million in 2008, many figure that 20 million will move in 2009.'"

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from Apple.com (5, Funny)

richdun (672214) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423067)

Dimensions 4.5 x 2.4 x 0.46 inches / 115 x 61 x 11.6mm

I doubt it will get much bigger. Maybe a little to fit a 3G radio in a future revision.

Next question.

Let me guess... (0, Redundant)

minginqunt (225413) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423117)

Wireless. Less space than a nomad. Lame.

YOU MARK MY WORDS.

Re:from Apple.com (5, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423149)

I don't think you're doing it right. Try rubbing it.

A new step in /. evolution (5, Funny)

bidule (173941) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423225)


Now that slashdotters never RTFA, we're ready for the next step: only read the title. You, sir, not only deserve a +5 Funny, you truly deserve a +5 Insightful for this discovery.

Re:A new step in /. evolution (4, Funny)

eln (21727) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423395)

I didn't RTFT, so maybe the answer is there, but I don't get the GP post's joke at all.

Re:A new step in /. evolution (2, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423767)

"I doubt it will get much bigger"
to which the poster replied:
"I don't think you're doing it right. Try rubbing it."

it == penis

Re:from Apple.com (5, Insightful)

BewireNomali (618969) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423517)

the key to the success of the iphone will be initial public perception once it's in the wild.

the iphone has one potential dealbreaker for me and that is the lack of buttons. texting outstrips voice by orders of magnitude - for a long time abroad (Europe, for example) and a bit more recently in the US. quick and effective texting on my motorola Q now means i can text without looking at the keys - as tactile response allows me to fly over the keypad. i don't have to wait for visual confirmation of a keystroke to continue texting.

the sidekick was popular with teens a couple of years ago for this very reason. It was one of the first phones to relatively inexpensively offer qwerty and seamless communications packages for texting, email, and IM. it didn't matter that the form factor was less than aesthetically pleasing, it mattered that the phone allowed you to communicate quickly and simply, and it also matter that providers soon offered a prepaid service that allowed teens to get the phone and buy minutes/data.

if this screen is somehow at least as tactile and responsive as keys are on a phone pad - then the iphone will dominate communications because apple understands how to woo consumers. this is clearly not a business device, so they need to dominate the consumer market. teens drive a lot of the consumer market and teens text more than they speak (let me expound: by teens i more aptly mean 13-24 market). at an unsubsidized $500, this might be a little high for this market, so apple might have to come downmarket fast. what's interesting here is that the fashion industry does this with runway lines - so called couture. those items are unrealistic for street wear and ridiculously priced - but that drives interest for the "ready to wear" stuff that shows up at your local department store.

the other issue that is interesting to me is that the phone can be used as a vanity phone. if usability is an issue - then people will want to have one, but have a more functional phone on hand for day to day and keep the iphone around when trolling for the ladies. so even if usability suffers you might see significant sales because it will be the it phone to have, even if for show. working in media, there are plenty of film execs who have blackberries but are totally unable to use them, but have them because this is the accessory a film producer is expected to have. so they carry it around and have an assistant check emails, etc.

-third part software is not an issue to the average user.
-battery life might be an issue to the average user, but it will not prevent him/her from buying the product.
-3g vs 2.5g, etc. this is also not an issue to the average user. they do not care about this. as long as it works - users are familiar with and expect slower bandwidth time on a handheld.

the average user is concerned with the following more than likely:

-does it look hot? will this make me look cooler? (CHECK)
-does it work? (?????) this is where the texting comes in. Your average user might say: "It's cool but texting on it makes me frustrated because i have to get used to doing it a new way" (this is important because at $500 you don't get downmarket uptake by the people most likely not to bristle at the new interface - kids/tweens/teens) - or - "It's too slow to text on this thing."

the ipod function will not get used because it will kill battery life. i don't think the average user wants all/a portion of his music collection on his phone anyway. the audience is simply not that interested in that kind of convergence. it increases complexity and the market doesn't want that.

haptic feedback, tactile response from touchscreen (5, Informative)

Gary W. Longsine (124661) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423805)

the iphone has one potential dealbreaker for me and that is the lack of buttons.
This article nicely describes a mechanism for tricking the brain with smart vibrations of the cell phone, providing a sense of tactile response on touch screens which might solve the issue with lack of tactile response for many touch screen use cases: How it works: Touch Screen Cell [time4.com]

Big enough for Mum to use? (2, Funny)

AmIAnAi (975049) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423071)

With many of the recent comments on the iPhone suggesting the real acceptance test will be whether your Mum can use it, when I saw the article's title I thought - ah! now they're going to produce a 'large button' version for older users.

Re:Big enough for Mum to use? (4, Insightful)

LWATCDR (28044) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423249)

While the big button idea is funny I don't think that the real acceptance test will be peoples Mothers or Grandmothers.
I see the target for the IPhone to be the Treo and Blackberry crowd. I really want to see one and the SDK. I hate AT&T and I am still trying to figure out why Apple went with them. The only thing I can figure out is that Apple made a deal about using AT&Ts pipes if net neutrality goes south.
I am going ready for a new phone in November and the IPhone is tempting if I can do development on it. It could be a great market to get into.

Re:Big enough for Mum to use? (5, Insightful)

Maury Markowitz (452832) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423313)

Maybe, but the big breakout happens if that's NOT true. Remember, there were lots of MP3 players out there when Apple stomped them. They did so by making a techno-geek device into something everyone _trusted_ they could actually use. And that's what "Apple" means now. That's important, if it is the case that people are not buying smartphones because they are too geeky (or people believe they are), then this could really smoke.

Re:Big enough for Mum to use? (1)

Divebus (860563) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423417)

Once enough flash executives get their hands on it, AT&T and Apple will need to make good on making the iPhone a real business device. There's little that's currently attractive about the AT&T/Cingular network so many people are holding out until Verizon can get access to the iPhone. However, Verizon competes with everything about the iPhone so I don't know how portable business specific advances will be for the iPhone on Verizon. The only way this will work is if AT&T gets their act together and fixes the network reliability issues - then let the chair throwing begin.

Re:Big enough for Mum to use? (1)

LWATCDR (28044) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423723)

I don't see Verizon getting it.
I hate Verizon and will not use them because they ruin perfectly good phones by locking out features and putting their own crappy interface on them.
I don't think Verizon would live with not controling the UI on the IPhone and Apple will never give up control over the UI of the IPhone.

Re:Big enough for Mum to use? (1)

squiggleslash (241428) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423557)

I see the target for the IPhone to be the Treo and Blackberry crowd. I really want to see one and the SDK.

I see it more aimed at the Sidekick crowd [slashdot.org] . Right now, it's unlikely Apple is going to offer more than "widget style" programming for the device, and it doesn't really connect to corporate mail systems. The type of people who want a Treo or Blackberry for that Organizer/business connectivity type environment are going to be put off by a device primarily aimed at multimedia and web browsing.

People (and I include myself) got too hung up on Jobs describing the thing as a "smartphone". It isn't really. It's a really, really, awesome multimedia phone. It's what the ROKR should have been. It's what you get if you take what the ROKR was supposed to be, marry it to what the Sidekick is supposed to be, and do it really, really, well. (Well, assuming it's as good as it's cracked up to be.)

Re:Big enough for Mum to use? (5, Informative)

powerlord (28156) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423361)

As an aside, if you want a "Big Button Phone" for Mom/Grandma, look into the jitterbug [jitterbug.com] .

Their bullet points are:
  • Live, 24-hour operators provide personal service
  • Dialing is easy with large, backlit buttons
  • A soft ear cushion lets you hear every word
  • Affordable rate plans from just $10 a month


Managing the phone number list is via the operator by talking to them or sending them an email or fax (or manage it yourself online soon).
They even have a "simple" phone where you just have the list of numbers, no dial buttons.

Its only available in the U.S. right now, but its a great idea for a service, and I believe Samsung makes the phones.

Speculation for nerds (-1, Offtopic)

hcdejong (561314) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423073)

stuff that's repetitive

I'm just guessing but... (0, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423087)

11.6mm thick, 2.4-inches wide, and 4.5-inches tall.

iPhone (0, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423097)

Apple is going to extend thier lead over Microsoft using the iPhone like they did with all thier products - they simply took thier products usability beyond what Microsoft did. Microsoft includes what is enough while Apple includes what is enough plus what is nice to have...

Re:iPhone (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423307)

Apple has a lead over Microsoft??

Predictions (5, Insightful)

BlueOtto (519047) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423101)

How about we wait until they've sold *one* until we predict that they'll sell 20 million 2 years from now.

Re:Predictions (4, Insightful)

trybywrench (584843) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423215)

How about we wait until they've sold *one* until we predict that they'll sell 20 million 2 years from now.

That's a good point. I really like Apple and have never been let down by their hardware but it's way too early to be making crazy predictions about the Iphone saving the world. Competitors are genuinely scared though, Microsoft had that FUD piece a while back about the Iphone being useless for business. I found that funny given the fact that the ipod is useless for business as well yet was still a success.

Overall I have no doubt the Iphone will do well but it's too early to make predictions 2 years down the road.

Re:Predictions (5, Insightful)

LO0G (606364) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423471)

If the iPhone plans on taking on the Crackberry, then it's GOT to be useful for business. The thing that makes the Crackberry sell like crazy is that it sync's seamlessly with most business email systems.

If the iPhone can't do that, ultimately it will be relegated to a vanity toy.

Think about it - I know a bunch of people who are totally addicted their crackberries, will they really switch to the iPhone? Does the iPhone provide enough value to convince them to ditch their crackberry given that they'll lose 24x7 access to their email?

If the iPhone can't sync with corporate email systems seamlessly, then it's going to become a vanity toy and not the powerhouse that Apple (and the Apple fanboys) want it to be.

Re:Predictions (3, Interesting)

Richthofen80 (412488) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423589)

I doubt that iPhones are going to sync with Corp. email so easily. The reason Blackberry has such a great sync with corporate email is because businesses have their own blackberry management servers (I don't know if the servers live at RIM or at the the local company's site, though) that tie into the corporate email servers. iPhone is not being launched as a business product, or as with a business 'edition'.

iPhone will probably have POP3 access to mailboxes like most current smartphones do.

I think small business/independent businessmen could use iPhone no problem; but they have to manage their own contacts and keep their own address book. Corporate Joe working at a firm with more than 100 users will probably just continue to use the solution handed down to him via his company; and the only decent enterprise system right now is RIMs.

Re:Predictions (0, Redundant)

anethema (99553) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423755)

is that it sync's seamlessly with most business email systems.

If the iPhone can't do that, ultimately it will be relegated to a vanity toy. ...

If the iPhone can't sync with corporate email systems seamlessly, then it's going to become a vanity toy and not the powerhouse that Apple (and the Apple fanboys) want it to be.


This post brought to you from the Department of Redundancy Department.

Re:Predictions (1, Funny)

timeOday (582209) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423503)

I don't think the iPhone can compete with the Blackberry since the iPhone doesn't have a keyboard.

Re:Predictions (1)

scrm (185355) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423621)

The iPhone won't redefine the industry, but if it really can bring together what has become a fragmented set of mobile features (phone + web browsing / maps / PDA features), coupled with video/iPod functionality, into an easy-to-use interface, it will give Apple a good foothold in the market.

I'll hold out for an iPhone nano which does all of the above minus the video (who really needs it at this screen size?) in a truly pocketable package.

Re:Predictions (1)

lottameez (816335) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423631)

I really like Apple and have never been let down by their hardware

[cough]Newton[cough]

Snide remarks aside, my somewhat techno-luddite wife saw an ad for the iPhone the other day and was completely enamored with it.

Re:Predictions (1)

cunamara (937584) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423465)

How about we wait until they've sold *one* until we predict that they'll sell 20 million 2 years from now.

It's interesting to read the pundits. Many of the computer industry people are predicting the iPhone will be a relative failure, while we have folks like Business Week predicting "blockbuster." I think many of the computer industry pundits are tired of Jobs and just want to see him get some egg on his face. Heck, I've been a Mac user since 1986 and I'm tired of Jobs. A little of his personality goes a long way.

As far as predicting the future goes, I think "blockbuster." The iPhone is in the same price range as phones people are already buying (Treo, etc) and those already made to look stodgy and last year by a product that isn't even for sale yet. The cool factor will triumph yet again. Maybe someday Apple will figure out how to sell computers as effectively as they sell music and phones.

Re:Predictions (1)

BewireNomali (618969) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423699)

i predict blockbuster too.

-price range: current smarphones are around $200. the Q, the blackjack, etc. even with added memory you come in way under the iphone price tag and still get the keypad which imo is a bonus, not a detriment.

the cool factor goes a LONG way. it will sell because it looks cool.

Re:Predictions (1)

UnknowingFool (672806) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423797)

If I had modpoints, I would mod you up. All these articles are pure speculation. One side is predicting that the iPhone will end world hunger while the other side is predicting that the iPhone will cause a black hole and suck Apple's HQ and all of CA into it. :)

I stand corrected (4, Funny)

rueger (210566) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423113)

My previous comment [slashdot.org] may have been in error.

I now believe that the iPhone will sell 456 million units and will indeed Change the Face of Communications as We Know It.

Mmmmm... Kool-Aid....

Re:I stand corrected (1)

CastrTroy (595695) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423187)

Personally, I can't see why people would want to spend $500 on a cell phone/music player. All the cell phones i've had, especially the flashy expensive ones have died in 2 years. Also, they are usually tied to the phone company. I'd rather spend $300 on a music player that isn't tied to some phone company and get the free phone when I sign up for the service. I know, I only get a free phone if I sign a contract, but I don't plan on switching phone companies every 3 months, and it's not like they give you a better monthly rate if you buy the phone.

Re:I stand corrected (1)

Divebus (860563) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423281)

I agree. The same form factor without the phone inside (but still Wi-Fi enabled) would be cheaper, not require a service contract and would sell by the boat load as a fancy iPod/Video player. Most people have a phone already. However, when your phone wears out in two years, what are you going to look at first if you already know and love the fancy iPod? By then, other providers are scheduled to have access to it. Apple themselves would have to totally screw up somehow to keep 2009 from being a huge year for the iPhone.

Re:I stand corrected (1)

Kymri (1093149) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423609)

They may have something in mind like this - the widescreen/WiFi/touchscreen iPod rumors have been churning like chum in the fanboy-infested waters for quite some time. Either way, I'm sure the iPhone will be a success. The ability to develop 3rd party apps and connect up with corporate email systems (as many others have pointed out before me) are the things that are likely to decide if the iPhone is a success or something that blows the competition out of the water.

I know some folks at Motorola who went home and were found the next morning rocking back and forth while curled up in the fetal position around a now-empty bottle of Jack Daniels, the night after the MacWorld keynote announcing the iPhone, so it's at least scary-in-concept to some of the existing players.

Re:I stand corrected (1)

powerlord (28156) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423515)

Personally, I can't see why people would want to spend $500 on a cell phone/music player


I agree, but the idea of a merged device, so you don't have to carry a cell phone and music player, makes a lot of sense.

The iPhone's ability to handle VoiceMail the way it does, will also make it popular to a lot of people who NEED to stay in touch. Heck, ditto for the integrated IM and SMS capabilities.

Think of it more as an SmartPhone with iTunes capabilities, rather than an iPod with SmartPhone capabilities.

Also, they are usually tied to the phone company.


I'm guessing you don't have a GSM phone (ATT/Cingular and T-Mobile in the U.S.A.). Those phones are easy to go from carrier to carrier and will work around the world. Additionally, when you get a new phone, you can hold on to the old one as an "emergency backup". How do you switch phones? Just remove the SIM card and put it in whatever phone you want to use.

Re:I stand corrected (1)

mcmonkey (96054) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423735)

I now believe that the iPhone will sell 456 million units and will indeed Replace the Segway!

Cities will be built around it! Temples will be built to it! People will spurn loved ones to be with it! Bow before its glory like the vermin you are! Look away! Your eyes are not worthy.

Daily supply of vitamin J in each glass, you say?

Don't see the allure.. (3, Insightful)

mulvane (692631) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423121)

I want buttons.. Real touchy feely buttons. I can learn to navigate buttons in the dark, while driving and in numerous situations where I don't want to LOOK at the phone.

Re:Don't see the allure.. (5, Insightful)

LWATCDR (28044) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423179)

"while driving and in numerous situations where I don't want to LOOK at the phone"
Please get a bluetooth headset and a phone with good voice dialing if and only if you must talk on the phone while driving.

Heck if the IPhone stops people from using their cell while driving it may save thousands of lives!

Re:Don't see the allure.. (1)

mulvane (692631) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423233)

My phone is patched through my radio so its hands free for that.. I just need to be able to answer without having to look at the phone. I hardly ever dial unless at a stop while in the car.

Re:Don't see the allure.. (1)

LWATCDR (28044) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423789)

Bluetooth headset works great for that. Just tap the button on your headset and it pick up the phone. Not only that but my voice dialing works great for the few times I have to make a call when at the wheel.

Re:Don't see the allure.. (1)

garcia (6573) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423407)

I still want to be able to feel the buttons when I'm driving and in the dark. I also touch type on my mobile device now because I get tactile feedback. I won't get that with the iPhone.

The other fancy dancy things rock but the lack of a keyboard sucks.

Re:Don't see the allure.. (1)

BodhiCat (925309) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423213)

Can you really use a cell phone by touch? I never have, I have always had to have at least the back light on the keys. A desktop or laptop keyboard, yes, I can touch type on them, but the iPhone is not meant for typing any large amounts of text. Most execs and nurds have several computer/e-mail/text typing devices that they use for different situations. If you want to type your dissertation on the iPhone, good luck.

Re:Don't see the allure.. (1)

mulvane (692631) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423263)

I've always been able to use the number pad by touch. Usually the 5 key has a little different feel or a dot in it so you can associate all other numbers from it.

Re:Don't see the allure.. (1)

everphilski (877346) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423283)

Can you really use a cell phone by touch?

Yeah. The 1-9 is a 3x3 matrix of buttons with the middle button 'funny' (mine has a little nub on it). With your thumb on the middle key (5) it is pretty trivial to shift up and around (1-3) left (4) right (5) or down and around (5-9).

Re:Don't see the allure.. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423435)

I can touch type via T9. It's no where near as difficult as people think. Try it and you'll probably be able to do it.

Re:Don't see the allure.. (1)

icepick72 (834363) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423375)

Real touchy feely buttons. I can learn to navigate buttons in the dark


As for operation in the dark the backlit screen will suffice to solve that problem. For driving, well another post here helped you answer that one. No fear!

Re:Don't see the allure.. (1)

foniksonik (573572) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423419)

Hmmm I can touch type at about 90 words/min but it isn't the keyboard buttons that let me do that... it's the spatial memory in my hands or whatever part of my brain that holds spatial memory for my hands. I suspect that is true of a phone as well, ie: I've had the same phone for several years now, great buttons... but i can't touch dial it very well because I rarely use it for any length of time or at all really (I don't call people much, prefer email or just waiting til I see them) but I'm certain that a teen who texts all the time can do it behind their back in the dark with one hand...

Once you get used to the dimensions and location of where the input areas are on the iPhone, your local spatial memory for your hands will kick in the same as with a phone that has buttons, especially if you keep the audio feedback turned on while learning. In any case you're not going to hold the phone and reach your thumb all the way to the left of the device when you're wanting to type a 1, 4, or 7... likewise the 3, 6 and 9 will be found near the right edge and 2,5,8 will be in the middle... 123 at top, 456 in middle and 789 at bottom... not a very complicated grid to memorize really ;-p and I'm fairly certain you won't be using google maps using any 'buttons' no matter which phone you pick... and the rest of the capability is going to demand your attention by it's nature, rather than due to it's input method.

Help! I'm Being Crushed By A Hype Balloon! (-1, Offtopic)

CheeseburgerBrown (553703) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423143)

Send for that dog with the liquor canister on his collar -- I'm being flattened beneath the weight of a jaw-droppingly gimongous bubble of hot air and it's not rising!

Darwin, why have you forsaken me?

That's an easy prediction (1)

aadvancedGIR (959466) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423175)

Apparently, with the amount Gabe from PA is willing to pay to have one on release date, it won't be that hard to reach those 10 B$.

Crystal Ball (2, Funny)

WaZiX (766733) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423177)

If my Crystal Ball is any indication, we're in for a surprise.

Re:Crystal Ball (1, Funny)

foniksonik (573572) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423271)

"Ask again later"? - oh wait that's the magic 8 ball, sorry.

Focus (2, Insightful)

TheLastStop (1111823) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423193)

I tend to think that additional features follow the law of diminishing returns: after a while extra crap becomes a burden rathern than a selling point. It's my opinion that people feel confused and overwhelmed by one device that "does it all." The beauty of the iPod was that it did what it was intended to do exceedingly well. It didn't have poorly conceived features tagged on to simply add more bullet points to the packaging. I really hope that the iPhone can walk the line between all-in-one usefullness and confusing novelty well.

Big (3, Funny)

Divebus (860563) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423197)

By 2009, Steve Ballmer will be ordering chairs by the truckload.

Or (1)

everphilski (877346) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423315)

maybe the number is $10B because Ballmer switches to throwing iPhones?

Ahhhhh!

No Verizon, No iphone (1)

Thesketchmaster (887434) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423207)

It is really sad that the iphone will only be available for Cingular and not any other wireless service. I don't really care how great it is, I can't see changing from Verizon. I don't see why they wouldn't want to be on a much faster EV-DO network especially for "real" web-browsing, music downloads, etc.. And we don't even have EV-DO rev. B yet!!! Maybe I can acquire one from outside the country on Ebay.

Re:No Verizon, No iphone (1)

simong (32944) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423299)

Don't worry, I can see Apple doing another 'exclusive' deal with Verizon, and another one with T-Mobile (apparently the European partner) in time. There's probably some loophole that will allow them to roll it out to other providers after six months or a year.

Re:No Verizon, No iphone (1)

CrackedButter (646746) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423709)

I'm on Orange now but I hope to shit T-Mobile get the contract for the iPhone, they are one of the better and more flexible operators out over here.

Re:No Verizon, No iphone (1)

MyOtherUIDis3digits (926429) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423373)

I agree. I switched from Verizon to Cingular a couple of years ago because I had to have one of those new RAZRs. I loved the phone, but hated the service, and actually paid the early termination fee to go back. Now Verizon had RAZRs also, so even though I'm about as big of an Apple fanboy as they get, I will wait until they have their version of the iPhone before I get one.

At least that's what I keep saying to myself...

Re:No Verizon, No iphone (2, Interesting)

CensorshipDonkey (1108755) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423597)

I believe they approached Verizon initially, as they did a lot of carriers. However, Cingular was the only network at the time who were willing to partner with Apple on Apple's terms: Apple was to design the phone, control every aspect of it, and prevent the network from stuff their own software and logo all over it. That may seem reasonable from the perspective of a hardware designer, but must networks were used to stamping all approved phones with their own software/logo/etc. Blame Verizon for declining a reasonable partnership.

Re:No Verizon, No iphone (1)

MtViewGuy (197597) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423671)

I think within a year we'll see iPhone models with these features:

1. More flash memory storage--probably in the 16-20 GB range.
2. Longer battery life.
3. Support for CDMA digital cellular phone service, which makes it possible for the iPhone to run on Verizon and Sprint networks, including full EV-DO support.

This second-generation iPhone will likely be available worldwide with either GSM or CDMA support.

Re:No Verizon, No iphone (1)

amigabill (146897) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423675)

Verizon didn't go for the deal Apple was looking for.
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/news/2007-01-28-veriz on-iphone_x.htm [usatoday.com]

I don't know if I'd want an iPhone. I went for the LG9800 aka "The V" phone from Verizon as it was supposed to be their high-end gadget. It's a freakin POS. Terrible camera, short battery life, can't use standard headphnes to listen to music, mediocre phone, can't bluetooth pix I've taken to other phones like my roommate's phone can, and it drops calls very frequently at home. Roommates claim their phones work fine at home. I dont' use it for an mp3 player as my iPod Nano is much better for that with much larger capacity, but the 9800 seemed acceptable the couple songs I tried out for kicks. But it leaves me uninterested in expensive combo phones that don't do anything particularly well. I'll wait for some user reviews before I try to care. My next phone will be bought based on signal reception and battery life. But as Verizon reps can't/won't talk to me about what phones have better antennas and signal pickup than other phones, I'm not sure how to make that decision, and I still have this POS that I've hated since I got it. I find the idea of bailing out on cell phones completely quite tempting because I never really use it anyway, and it's an expensive monthly payment for something that works so poorly.

Re:No Verizon, No iphone (1)

squiggleslash (241428) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423747)

AT&T is rolling out UMTS, including HSDPA, at the moment, and Jobs has promised a 3G version of the phone is coming, so I wouldn't worry too much about the lack of EV-DO support.

FWIW, depending on what you read, Apple has committed to offering the iPhone to AT&T for the next two-five years exclusively of any other US carrier. So if you're hoping that a Verizon version is in the works, well, it isn't.

AT&T's network is poor at the moment because it's a botch of old analog and D-AMPS towers all now running GSM which has significantly different tower requirements. They now have a great deal of 3G spectrum, and are likely to overcome most of the problems they've had over the next two years, so don't expect AT&T's current poor performance to last very long, or be relevent when the 3G version of the iPhone appears.

Battery life will kill it, hands down (2, Insightful)

antifoidulus (807088) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423221)

5 hours of talk/video time? (16 hours if you only play audio) I doubt that it is going to make that much of an impact with that kind of battery life. I know thats longer than the video play time of a video iPod, but if your iPod runs out of power, chances are you are going to be annoyed, but thats about it. If your phone dies, you could miss an important email/call/whatever. Then you will probably be much more pissed.

Just my 2 cents, I think its a great device otherwise, but great devices with no power are pretty much expensive bricks.

Re:Battery life will kill it, hands down (1)

powerlord (28156) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423577)

If your phone dies, you could miss an important email/call/whatever.


Nah .. its easy ... you just carry a spare battery and when the iPhone battery gets low, you swap it out. ... oh wait ... the battery is built in ... and can't be swapped ... never mind.

How good are the others at playing catch up? (4, Insightful)

Andy_R (114137) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423229)

The iPhone doesn't exist in a vacuum. Apple have (arguably) raised the bar on screen quality, usability, features and memory size, and the people who currently have 100% of the mobile phone market won't be ignoring that. The question is how quickly their corporate cultures can switch round to building phones that are not just designed to tick boxes on a features checklist but are actually good at the things they can currently just about do.

My opinion. (1)

Pojut (1027544) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423243)

While my personal opinion is a negative one, I can see why people are excited about the iPhone. I must say, however, Apple's biggest mistake is choosing the Cingular/AT&T network. Restricting the phone to just that network is hardly a smart move...I mean, if they are gonna restrict it to one network, why restrict it to the network that has some of the most issues?

Re:My opinion. (1)

jzuska (65827) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423321)

Just ask for the unlock code. They'll give you one.

Post on ebay as unlocked for $7000.00.

Profit.

Re:My opinion. (1)

powerlord (28156) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423645)

Restricting it to Cingular/AT&T makes SOME sense.

Apple probably wants to market the phone Globally, so it makes sense to stick with GSM carriers (at least at first). They also need a certain amount of cooperation with the cell phone company to handle their take on Voice Mail and other things.

The only other GSM carrier in the U.S. is T-Mobile, and, since they are a more global company, they probably either wanted more money, and/or would relinquish less control to Apple, so AT&T it is.

If the iPhone gets bigger, then once the Exclusivity contract expires with AT&T, I'd expect them to be available on T-Mobile, and maybe Verizon (if/when they come out with a CDMA version of the phone).

Re:My opinion. (2, Insightful)

Pojut (1027544) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423731)

Yeah, but one of the draws of the iPhone (as with any smart phone) is it's internet-browsing abilities...what's the point of browsing the net on a network that is marginally quicker than dial-up? Especially on your shiny brand new $500+ phone.

Bigger than my... (0, Troll)

packetmon (977047) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423247)

Largest calculated number of 23928756932486075467586738596735346542654298347586 53568590875689035634523452345 * 1...

Does it make a difference on this site... I thought it was news for nerds... Did the slogan change to news for stock analysts and tradersv

It will get big... (1)

VitrosChemistryAnaly (616952) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423251)

...once the price comes down. Also, I think that more carriers will need to offer the iPhone. Just Cingular isn't enough.

I could see buying one if they were in the $300 range and I could pick which wireless company I want to use. Just look at the RAZR. Weren't those originally offered by just one carrier (in the States) and pretty pricey to boot? Now every wireless company offers them and nearly everyone I know has one (except me, I like candy-bar style phones).

Also now that it's been announced that 3rd party programs can be developed for the iPhone, I see that as a big plus in expanding its capabilities.

In summary, as long as the price comes down and it's offered my multiple carriers and good apps are developed for it, I do think that it will be a big success.

I'll buy one if. . . (1, Troll)

kimvette (919543) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423257)

* I can install whatever software I want on it (wow, just like a Microsoft smartphone or a PDA)
* I can play ogg-vorbis, mp3, avi, and other media formats on it
* It comes with a standard stereo headphone jack in addition to a headset one
* It comes with 3G and bluetooth is not locked down at ALL

If I buy something with all the capabilities of a PDA, I'd want it to replace my PDA, not be locked down. I've avoided smartphones and stuck with a separate PDA due to the limited nature of PDA+phone models so far.

It will bomb (1)

jzuska (65827) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423259)

Just saying, I'm not interested in it.... and i'm a geek.

I think it's a PS3, Lonts of nice pretty technology... but in the end it's waaaaay the fuck too expensive.

Re:It will bomb (1)

Dan Ost (415913) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423685)

If the PS3 had been an Apple product, then people would be raving about how successful it's been.

Re:It will bomb (2, Insightful)

kencurry (471519) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423753)

... but in the end it's waaaaay the fuck too expensive.
Original iPod was $399; I still have mine.

Yeah, it was way too expensive then, and I knew it. Thing was, it blew away my Rio Diamond; it also blew away the 6 CD changer in my lexus that I had spent $3K on.

I knew then it would be huge, and I bought apple stock at $14. I think that was around 2001. It took a couple of years for APPL to get some traction, but today is at $127.

Apple sees long term better than most tech companies today, in my opinion. The iPhone will take off just like the iPod did.

Anyways

scared off by the introductory $499 price??? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423269)

scared off by the introductory $499 price??? Over here we have people *battling* to buy the new Nokia phone (N90 or something) at ~750 euros!! Talk about logic...

The iPhone Hype Is Getting Desperate (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423277)

It is getting to be painful to watch sites try to hype the iPhone and the general non-Apple fan crowd continue to be completely unimpressed.

Sites: Hey everybody! It's yet another iPhone hype article
People: Yawn...
Sites: Hey everybody! You really are hyped for the iPhone even if you don't think you are
People: No we're not
Sites: Come on, Apple is paying us big bucks to hype this thing until you want one. Here's another iPhone hype article
People: Still not interested ...

It might struggle in Europe (2, Insightful)

clickclickdrone (964164) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423293)

Whilst people will buy it as a fashion statement, it's going to struggle as it's previous generation in some ways. It's biggest problem is it doesn't support 3G which for many people is a must have feature.

Re:It might struggle in Europe (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423659)

It's biggest problem is it doesn't support 3G which for many people is a must have feature.

I can assure you that the majority of people don't even know what 3G is, let alone that it's a "must have" feature.

Re:It might struggle in Europe (0)

CrackedButter (646746) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423661)

Oh fuck off, I'm sick of this being mentioned in every iphone news story, Its common knowledge, even at the Keynote Apple said they were releasing a 3G version, stop fucking trolling.

It won't be the number sold that counts (4, Insightful)

Billosaur (927319) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423305)

It will be reliability. This isn't an iPod; you're iPod breaks and so you can't listen to music or watch videos, that's a shame. But people are wedded to their mobile phones -- if these things can't stand up to the pounding that a normal mobile phone takes in the course of a day, you're going to see sales tail off pretty damned fast.

it will be? (1)

vx922 (1108955) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423383)

but the iTimeMachine will be bigger we just have to wait for Mr Jobs to bring it out of hideing (he hides it in his freezer)

Kiss of Death (1)

pudknocker (516571) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423387)

Nothing really new, just put a bunch of things together in one package and add the Apple logo... what's clever/ingenious about that?

This much hype is almost always the "Kiss of Death" for a tech product. I'm thinking Segway..... However, Apple has the power of "hip" which should never be underestimated.

Re:Kiss of Death (1)

LynnwoodRooster (966895) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423477)

Even beyond that, I'm not sure I see anything novel over the Samsung Anycall i718. Video, music, monster dynamic touchscreen, bluetooth, PDA functionality. Except the i718 has buttons on the very bottom for the most common functions, a very smart move...

Only 8GB? (1)

Vosschenstijn (1112639) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423425)

I was unhappily surprised by the iPhone's 8GB capacity. A device that plays video should at least have 20GB. And Apple surely has the technology to fit that amount of memory into a flash architecture. So why the trimmed down 8GB? I hope the device's processor will be as snappy as the quicktours or whatever they are called on Apple's website suggest. It blazes through photo's and music like a 5-year old on a sugar-buzz.

If so it will buck the market trends. (3, Informative)

supersnail (106701) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423449)

This year more than half of Nokia's revenues come from sub 50 Euro phones.

And this percentage is increasing.

I personally can see why. I want a phone to be a phone nothing more nothing less.

I've has a treo [great palm pilot - lousy phone) and was bought a p800 (lousy PDA, lousy phone).

I now have a Nokia 5nnn thingy with the bouncy rubber case which comes with a camera I
have never used, an FM radio I have never used, a compass! which I have used and some other
bells and whistles but it works very well as a phone.

I will spend even less money the next time I buy one and get more of what I really
want from the thing -- simple user interface and long battery life.

Re:If so it will buck the market trends. (2)

99BottlesOfBeerInMyF (813746) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423727)

I personally can see why. I want a phone to be a phone nothing more nothing less. I've has a treo [great palm pilot - lousy phone) and was bought a p800 (lousy PDA, lousy phone).

You have bought devices that had functionality you did not use. I suspect a lot of us have. I have a very basic phone right now and it still does not do a very good job as a phone. The iPhone will succeed if it works really well as a phone and is easier to use than other phones. The iPhone will crush the competition and be an enormous success if works really well as a phone and for 5-10 other common tasks that currently suck balls to do on other phones. I know a dozen people right off the top of my head who don't use SMS, or e-mail, mp3 playing, web browsing, or maps on their phone/PDA not because they aren't willing to pay for those features, but because learning them and using them every day is a pain in the ass because of the poorly designed interfaces. Hell, to call a number from the phonebook in my current phone is 5 button presses at the very minimum. That is terrible usability.

I doubt I'll be buying an iPhone anytime soon because of my phone contract and expense, but if Apple has managed another really polished UI, a lot of people will be buying it and a whole lot more than that in a few more years.

I don't want "just a phone" because I'm cheap. I want something that works as a phone really, really well and if it works as other things really really well too, I'll pay for that. If it does other things kinda sorta the way many phones and PDAs do now, I don't really care to pay for it.

IMHO... (5, Insightful)

ricky-road-flats (770129) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423463)

...I don't think the iPhone is going to be big at all.

The ipod was/is huge becuase it was a relatively early entrant in a market that was just on the verge of exploding in size, and it was hugely advertised and hyped, and there wasn't any real competition for at least a couple of years. The tie-in with iTunes helped too.

The mobile phone market is completely different to this. Completely. There is an enormous existing market which has already been through most of its rapid-growth phase. There are huge, competent companies churning out amazingly sophisticated models of all types (just this quarter, the SonyEricsson W880 and the Nokia N95 are great examples), and they are refreshing those models at a furious pace.

The mobile markets differ around the world, but the Western European model essentially removes the purchase price from the end-user. I haven't paid more than $100 US for a new phone in eight years, and I'm a technophile who upgrades every year, ususally to a high-end just-released model.

Apple have no experience at making phones. They make stuff which can be good to use, but that's hard in the phone world. Above all, phones have to be good phones first, then be good ipods, then have other stuff they do well. My SonyEricsson W850 is a very good phone, a great walkman, and also lets me browse the Internet at broadband speeds in a decent way, has good Java games available, a decent-enough camera, a torch, alarm clock and so on. It's very hard to get right the phone bit, and nothign of what I've read about the iPhone tells me it'll be any good at that. It's not 3G which rules it out for many technophiles including myself, too.

Apple might talk about a low-cost verion in 2009, but the others will have cheaper phones that do far more in 2007, let alone 2008 or 2009.

They might be moderately successful in a niche in the USA, (and in the mobile pheon world, the US is a niche), but I cannot see it becoming widely successful elsewhere. I might be wrong - it might have a neat feature that'll make it a must-have - but I'll be very surprised if they do - and the second it's out, the competitors will be throwing together better competing phones.

Re:IMHO... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423693)

Hm, was just thinking that it works for me. I'm not into fancy phones and stuff. I know exactly the features iPhone has and want one, SonyEricsson W880 and the Nokia N95 sound like random phones to me.

And I'm positive a trip to the Apple store will be a lot more fun than a trip to the Sprint store.

Re:IMHO... (1)

MtViewGuy (197597) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423759)

While Apple obvious doesn't have the experience of SonyEricsson or Nokia making cellphones, it has one major thing in its favor: the interface of the iPhone is a potential major leap forward compared to the Nokia N95 or SonyEricsson W880i, both of which still have a lot of buttons to deal with.

How Big? Do the math (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19423509)

Take every single Mac user x iPhone$. Then +
15% every single Windows user x iPhone$. There you have the first 18mo. rollout.
Then take every single laptop user x 1.25(iPhone$)= Apple iPhone v2.0 revenues over 3yrs. WAIT... there's more!
Now take...
every single cell phone user x .66(iPhone$)= Apple iPhone v3.0 revenues AFTER they rebrand/takeover a carrier like CRICKET.
That's the exit strategy for Steve Jobs.

Not hot-swappable (1)

nerdstrap (1071916) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423565)

Until the iPhone has a swappable carrier model, it will never be as huge as the iPod. Why can't the phone network access be abstracted to the point that a phone just has a different .dll for each network? Someone create a Cell Phone Software Factory!

Its all in the data plan (2, Interesting)

KevDude (115267) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423639)

For me, whether or not to get an iPhone all hinges on how much the data plan is going to cost. I'd gladly pay $1000 or more for a single device that could be a usable network terminal, music player, gps, and phone, but I'm not going to pay 30-70 dollars every month for the life of the device to use it.

Considering that decent home broadband is now 25-60 dollars most places here, I really can't see paying more than 5-10 dollars for the bandwidth, and maybe another $5-10 for the portable aspect. But then isn't that already built into my base cell plan? So we'll see if AT&T comes up with a reasonably priced plan or not.

Blackberry? (1)

mnmn (145599) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423653)

The iPhone doesn't look like it can be a Blackberry. The whole attraction of the Blackberry is really email and text messages.

I cringe at the thought of typing on a small touchscreen.

More asinine stuff on the FP (1)

br14n420 (1111329) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423681)

The answer may not come until 2009

Then you should remove your article full of guesswork and write a new one in 2009 when you know the answers.

All these articles end up ever being is more hype for an unreleased product. Free advertising for the manufacturer, and setting up future buyers to be disappointed due to hyped expectations. Then, within a month of it's release, the attitude of articles posted by /. will go from this to years of "Is this the next iPhone killer?" and thus more hype, this time negative, over any minor limitations or design errors.

Eliminating Schlepping the MacBook (4, Interesting)

BoRegardless (721219) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423703)

Using an iPhone may indeed let me leave the MBPro in the office much of the time. For these types of users, iPhone makes a BIG difference with the iphone in a pocket rather than a ten pound bag with charger and extension cord. People hereabouts have complained about only 1 cell provider, no 3G, no 20 gig memory, no EU sales, but to fully debug everything before going global, Apple has picked it right to limit it to N. America. Obviously the rest of the options will come, as the 3rd party applications will. Hey, the phone is not even out, and everyone has statements about various forms of failure. If you want to see failures, take a look at all the losing products from MS over the last 10 years. MS has existed profitably because of two long standing products, and those financed the losses on all the "new" products.

If the lower-cost version is already planned.... (1)

PHAEDRU5 (213667) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423705)

...why buy the high-priced version?

I'll just wait.

p.s. If enough people take this tack, then there will be no iPhone at all.

I'm not convinced (2, Interesting)

hairykrishna (740240) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423773)

The ipod was a huge success because it was introduced before a lot of people owned portable mp3 players, it looked better than the competitors and (most importantly) most of the alternatives had rubbish interfaces. None of these things are true for the phone market.

What do I know though? I won't pay over the odds for a piece of technology just because it looks cool. I don't think I'm the target market.

Network compatibilities? (2, Insightful)

vigmeister (1112659) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423775)

Assuming the iPhone is a hit amongst GSM users, to truly expand, Sprint, Verizon and all the CDMA networks may be the biggest obstacle to iPhone's success. Once people get addicted to their iPhones, at it's pricing, they'd want to keep it for a while. Will that be possible?

The best solution IMO, is for them to build in the hardware for all the major networks into the device (which ought to be possible). I'd buy a phone just for that capability. Then perhaps you can have phone usage on one network and data plans on another.

Alternatively, akin to something I am considering, one could buy a phone with 3Gness and run a VoIP service or Skype on it 24/7 and thereby use it as a phone... If the iPhone manages that, who knows...

Cheers!

Answer: It will be gone by 2009 (5, Insightful)

pboyd2004 (860767) | more than 7 years ago | (#19423779)

Ok Apple fan boys go ahead and mod me troll.

But without corporations pushing their email to these devices you won't get the blackberry user base, and lets face it most big corporations haven't liked anything else Apple up to this point so why change for this product?

Now the home user? The reason most don't have a smart phone is that they just don't need it. Most of the regular phones on the market already do far more and are alot more complicated than people want them to be. The average person is going to ask why they need to upgrade to this expensive phone when their normal phone does far more than they ever wanted it to do.

So there will be a bunch of apple fans and tech geeks that buy this initially then it's sales will plummet and Apple will can the project.

Ok I'm done burning my karma now.
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