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Red Hat Reaping Benefits From Novell/MSFT deal?

Zonk posted more than 7 years ago | from the don't-like-their-dance-partner dept.

Novell 71

Ho Kooshy Fly writes "It seems that at least one software group has seen the use of Red Hat substantially increase over Novell as of late. EWeek theorizes that this may be backlash from the patent deal with Microsoft. From the article: 'The survey's findings can also be extrapolated to the broader open-source software industry and are not limited to those enterprise customers using Alfresco software "because of the wide range of open-source and proprietary software use cases captured and the large sample size of the survey," [Ian Howells, Alfresco's chief marketing officer] said. "We think these findings accurately reflect the broad technology trends across modern stacks in organizations of all sizes." Gallup polls about U.S. presidential candidates typically survey about 1,000 likely voters, while Alfresco surveyed more than 10,000 people, he said.'"

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I would put my usual anti-linux troll here (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19968299)

and probably get the usual 30 or so replies. But you know what? I just got laid. And if I can get laid, so can you.

Re:I would put my usual anti-linux troll here (4, Funny)

Vulva R. Thompson, P (1060828) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968921)

So switching to the left hand puts you in a better mood?

Re:I would put my usual anti-linux troll here (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19972947)

See, I've always said that switching hands makes it feel like somebody else is doing it! //wow, my captcha is "escorts"

Re:I would put my usual anti-linux troll here (1)

BattleCat (244240) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969099)

Congrats, dude. Or condolences, depending on..

Re:I would put my usual anti-linux troll here (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19969707)

Yes, when I have finished the act of love, I too post on Slashdot.

no bias? (4, Insightful)

vfrex (866606) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968301)

I'm not convinced that this is unbiased, especially the claims that Novell adoption is slowing due to backlash. Give us the stats if you want, but let us draw our own conclusions. Also, why did the report separate Fedora and RHEL while not separating openSuSE and Novell SuSE? Certainly interesting data, but like I said, I don't really want their conclusions. On a side note, PostgreSQL seems to be used a lot more than I originally thought.

Re:no bias? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19968359)

Not only this, Novell itself is slowing down. It's partnership with IBM on IRES is seriously lagging the technology. The IRES for SLES10 is still not out, not only that, Novell's own retail distribution, NLPOS is missing for SLES10. Novell is also dragging its feet on their corporate desktop offering. I haven't seen anything significant coming out of Novell since... ages? If they can't keep up with their corporate offerings, how will they be able to advance their market share? Disclaimer: Written on a openSUSE 10 Linux

Re:no bias? (0)

kaiwai (765866) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968403)

My experience so far has been different - I don't know what customers in the US are smoking but Novell has historically had good sales outside the US, the big question to ask, maybe they should just simply give up on the US, move their development team and head quarters back to the old German SuSE headquarters and leave the USA to the wrath of Microsoft.

The patent deal I doubt would cause any impact on sales - I mean, unless there are high powered idiots making decisions based on emotive overtones rather than on a factual basis.

If anything it'll be due to the same issue it has always had, terrible marketing, terrible sales people, terrible communication with customers and developers. The lack a leader with charisma and charm that can not only win over customers but developers as well. Everyone of them so far have either been technocrats trying to run a software company like a consumer product company or a geek who completely lacks any idea of business sense, marketing knowledge or the ability to sell products to non-technically minded people.

Re:no bias? (2, Insightful)

BVis (267028) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968479)

The patent deal I doubt would cause any impact on sales - I mean, unless there are high powered idiots making decisions based on emotive overtones rather than on a factual basis.
You've just described every executive at every large company in the US. The executive washroom is a logic-free zone.

If anything it'll be due to the same issue it has always had, terrible marketing, terrible sales people, terrible communication with customers and developers. The lack a leader with charisma and charm that can not only win over customers but developers as well. Everyone of them so far have either been technocrats trying to run a software company like a consumer product company or a geek who completely lacks any idea of business sense, marketing knowledge or the ability to sell products to non-technically minded people.
That's its strength. It competes on its own, without the need for marketing bullshit. Think about it: this is a product that has made significant inroads on Microsoft's territory with no cohesive marketing message, no charismatic leader, only geeks trying to make good software for the good of the community. In the end the quality of the product is what should be important, not whose box is shinier.

Re:no bias? (3, Interesting)

vfrex (866606) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968533)

Not sure if I agree with you there. In theory, products quality should stand alone. In reality, there are a lot of directors of IT and CIOs who believe that Linux is a science project, and not a suitable server platform for important tasks. Until that sentiment is eroded, Linux and OSS will never gain the share it deserves. Strong marketing will help to erode that sentiment faster.

Re:no bias? (2, Insightful)

kaiwai (765866) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968639)

You're right. In theory, it should be nice for products to stand on their own merits, people look beyond the marketing hype, and customers do their own research rather than relying on biased studies funded by companies - be they Microsoft, IBM, Red Hat or Novell.

Sun suffers from the same problem - awesome products marketing terribly; heck, its proven here with idiots making stupid statements that Solaris is only for SPARC, that Sun doesn't sell x86/x64 machines etc. etc. Ignorant goes both ways, and I'm always surprised to seeing the blatent ignorance that exists here.

Re:no bias? (1)

UbuntuDupe (970646) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969559)

In reality, there are a lot of directors of IT and CIOs who believe that Linux is a science project, and not a suitable server platform for important tasks.

In reality, there are a lot of *Linux users* who think that Linux is a science project, not suitable for important tasks. I remember Ubuntu users lecturing me how I should have my Windows CD ready when installing Ubuntu, in case Ubuntu has problems installing. And it did. And they asked why I didn't "play it safe" by having my Windows CD ... in anticipation of an Ubuntu problem.

Re:no bias? (2, Insightful)

vfrex (866606) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969703)

If that makes Linux a science project, I'm not sure what we should call an OS that doesn't bother attempting to play nice with others. I'm sure most sysadmin won't need to bother with dual booting Ubuntu next to Windows, somehow...

Re:no bias? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19970019)

Ignore him.
They were trying to help him, and he tried to convince them that he's an ungrateful idiot with no patience..

Correction.. successfully convinced them. He does this all the time.

Re:no bias? (1)

VagaStorm (691999) | more than 7 years ago | (#19970067)

I would hardly call windows a science project just because I keep a knopix cd around when installing it, just in cast something goes to wrong.... Like windows messing up my boot loader.... One of these days I should play dumb an call microsoft to have em explain to me what happened there :p

Re:no bias? (1)

Jah-Wren Ryel (80510) | more than 7 years ago | (#19971013)

In reality, there are a lot of directors of IT and CIOs who believe that Linux is a science project, and not a suitable server platform for important tasks.
Sometimes it just takes a generational change to get new ideas accepted by the mainstream. It took about 20 years for the PC to almost completely replace the mainframe -- roughly 1977 (TRS-80) to 1996 (WinNT4.0). We may be in for another 8-10 years before Linux completely replaces MS Windows regardless of marketing tactics.

Re:no bias? (1)

RockDoctor (15477) | more than 7 years ago | (#20040883)

In reality, there are a lot of directors of IT and CIOs who believe that Linux is a science project, and not a suitable server platform for important tasks.

Implicit in this statment is that "directors of IT and CIOs" do not consider "science" to be "important" (all dependant, of course, on broad generalisations of "directors ...", "science" and "important"). Which would be quite worrying, were it true, as a description of the general "importance" of "science" in the society you describe.
What is very worrying is that these are "directors of IT" and "Chief Information Officers", many of whom one would expect to be in posession of a (real) degree in Computing Science, or at least a degree from a university's science faculty.

Isn't this just another expression of the problems of undervaluing the science that underlies all of modern life? I notice that you see a lot more Creationists spouting their fear of the modern world on the internet than you see of them chilling their remarks into slabs of granite with another lump of granite. They don't seem to realise that you can't have the cake of denying the validity of science as a description of how the universe operates while continuing to use the fruits of that science.

Re:no bias? (2, Funny)

spun (1352) | more than 7 years ago | (#19970785)

The executive washroom is a logic-free zone.

But that's impossible! The free market for executive labor ensures that only the absolute best and brightest ever make it to executive positions. I mean, come one! There's no government interference in the executive salary market, so it has to be working perfectly. We all know that the only time markets fail to be the closest solution to God-like perfection is when government interferes. Therefore, these executives are making all the right decisions, based solely on their undying love for their shareholders, rather than shortsighted greed and cronyism.

Yes, I'm being sarcastic.

Re:no bias? (1)

FudRucker (866063) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968455)

sandbagging for novell, huh?

PostgreSQL (2, Informative)

Bacon Bits (926911) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968701)

PostgreSQL has grown dramatically since 8.x was released. Easy Windows support really helps because, like it or not, a lot of developers write on Windows and publish on Linux.

People tend to move to PostgreSQL when they find they need features MySQL lacks, get hung up on some of the odd issues MySQL can have, or find they have licensing issues with MySQL. The biggest drawback for PostgreSQL is that you actually have to configure it when you install it, or it will think it's running on a system with very minimal specs. It's also more complex than MySQL, but still nowhere near MS SQL Server 2005.

Can someone explain it to me? (1)

suv4x4 (956391) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968325)

Why Microsoft went into these deals anyway? Sure: "FUD".. Whatever, that's not a good reason enough. You can't stop Linux with just some random deals with minor distros and some FUD.

Does anyone have a hint of what their actual strategy is? So far they are just eliminating some smaller distros on the market and making it easier for the bigger distros to gain further traction.

Is this the idea? Help consolidate the market, so you have only 2-3 major distros to sue eventually for patent infringement?

Re:Can someone explain it to me? (1)

NeoTerra (986979) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968389)

It's a lot easier to run down 2 or 3 groups, as to staying up at night, hoping you have them all when you just caught #200.

Re:Can someone explain it to me? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19970891)

But if GPL3 manages to stop the spreading of 'protection deals', then those distributions that already made the deal, according to TFA, may slowly die, which would be a good thing for linux, since one of the biggest linux 'flaws' is the fragmentation into multiple distros.

Re:Can someone explain it to me? (1)

dattaway (3088) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968397)

Is this the idea? Help consolidate the market, so you have only 2-3 major distros to sue eventually for patent infringement?

There's always going to be change. That's why I recommend grabbing the small script to generate your own Linux distribution. With the only investment being a DNS registration for your new site, run the distro build script, watch it generate user forums with its AI to help build your wiki site, wait for Microsoft to send the forms, sign them, and wait for the multimillion dollar check.

Profit!

Re:Can someone explain it to me? (2, Funny)

Talisman (39902) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968563)


Can someone explain it to me...why Microsoft went into these deals anyway?


Yes.

Winux

Re:Can someone explain it to me? (2, Funny)

suv4x4 (956391) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968829)

> Can someone explain it to me...why Microsoft went into these deals anyway?

Yes.
Winux


And it'll be free and released under GPL3, right.

They remind of the british in india (2, Insightful)

badriram (699489) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968887)

Re:They remind of the british in india (1)

badriram (699489) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968953)

Divide and Rule [wikipedia.org] . It is a good stategy, and some open source people really do fall for it. GPL3 from a corporate perspective is not a very positive thing. So i would think that community is already showing lots of divide, although that could just be because there are lots more people in it now.
$%*@)%#$.... I have not idea what happened there, but i must have missed the a close tag.... Divide and Rule.

Re:They remind of the british in india (1)

suv4x4 (956391) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969767)

Good point about GPL3, but I don't think many people will jump on that bandwagon. The Linux kernel itself won't. Some marginal projects moved to GPL3, and they have much more popular GPL2/BSD/Mozilla (or whatever) licensed and corporate supported alternatives.

The OSS world is already quite divided and I've the feeling Microsoft is consolidating them (in the face of a threat) rather than diving them. Some marginal folks will always think up something weird but that's not so important.

Re:They remind of the british in india (1)

Serveert (102805) | more than 7 years ago | (#19976017)

Good point about GPL3, but I don't think many people will jump on that bandwagon.

Excellent point except the main targets for a lawsuit are moving to GPL3, like Samba. Otherwise, the threats are mere threats, with no source code or anything except hot air backing them up. Microsoft will never bring this into court, they will merely attempt to create an air of hysteria, hoping people like yourself make a big deal out of it so they don't have to substantiate their claims. Much like the SCO case, we know how far that got after the threats start and actual litigation started. So if this is creating a bigger target for Microsoft, that is the exact opposite of what they want. If everyone uses Redhat for years and there is no lawsuit, which is the most likely case, then that wouldn't be very good. It looks like Microsoft will just have to innovate with innovation vs baseless lawsuits. :)

Re:They remind of the british in india (1)

AvitarX (172628) | more than 7 years ago | (#19976833)

Marginal like samba?

Re:They remind of the british in india (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19974251)

blah blah blah more FUD.

Re:Can someone explain it to me? (2)

gstoddart (321705) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969209)

Why Microsoft went into these deals anyway? Sure: "FUD".. Whatever, that's not a good reason enough. You can't stop Linux with just some random deals with minor distros and some FUD.

FUD may not be so far from the mark. Large corporations are fairly conservative and risk-averse entities. If you can sew the seed of doubt with the people who control the money, they may be leery about using Linux in their enterprise unless they have the soothing lie of being free from any patent encumberance. By signing these deals, they create the perception that "this and only this" are 'safe' distributions.

Further, since they're deals focused (on the surface) of increasing interoperability, Microsoft gets to downplay the fact that they actively prevent others from working with their software. So, they spend some money and time with Novell to make sure things like file and printer sharing work more cleanly -- if you're gonna use Linux as a back-end technology, you'll do it with out blessing. This is a double edged sword, in that they can reinforce the claim that ONLY those distributions which have signed agreements with Microsoft aren't trampling on patents.

So, you water down the argument that MS products are completely proprietary which won't operate in the same environment as their competition (therefore pre-emptively watering down the claims they're a monopoly who doesn't play nice and staving off future anti-trust actions) and also poisoning the well of making people think that the rest of the open source stuff are violating patents and is therefore dodgy to use.

Ignore the fact that claiming to support interoperability for anyone BUT open source, or that the (unspecified) patents which people are allegedly infringing upon were actually things they stole from other people and then patented despite an abundance of prior art, and you have a great PR campaign to convince managers of large corporations the only 'safe' way to use Linux is in a context where Microsoft has given you permission.

It really is FUD and positioning yourself and selling your message. They're not doing anything because it will generally benefit the industry or make things more open and interoperable. It's about locking even more people into their way of doing it, and discrediting everyone else.

If lots of people see it as I've described, and say "well, screw Novell, Red Hat looks good", then they can definitely be reaping the benefit of a backlash against how much value the Novell deals actually bring to the consumer.

Cheers

Re:Can someone explain it to me? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19971407)

If you can sew the seed of doubt...


I think you meant 'sow.'

"Linux companies license our IP!" (1)

rajafarian (49150) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969735)

My best guess is that Microsoft wants to tell the world (especially those that are watching their anti-trust behavior and those they are trying to convice that their OOXML should be a standard) that Linux companies CAN and DO license their POS IP.

Surveys (4, Funny)

ireallylovelinux (589360) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968337)

I did a survey of surveys and found them only 88.1% accurate.

Re:Surveys (0)

Enderandrew (866215) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968659)

49% of all statistics are made up on the spot.

You can't argue with science.

very alarming (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19968349)

Alfresco never directly asked the Question (3, Informative)

darthcamaro (735685) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968423)

The eWeek story got it wrong. Internetnews.com got it right. From their article [internetnews.com] : "in an interview with internetnews.com, Howells admitted that he lacked that empirical evidence to back up his allegation. "All we've got is the raw statistics," Howells said. "We expected general trends to be similar, but what we saw was a big divergence going from the two platforms being almost the same to one tripling in size. We were looking at various reasons for that, and there may be a number of reasons for that but we don't actually know the specific reason." Among the other reasons why Red Hat users may well have increased is the emergence of a new Red Hat release -- Red Hat Enterprise Linux 5 (RHEL) -- which was released in mid-March just a few weeks ahead of when the Alfresco study began. Novell on the other hand had no similar product launch event at any point near the Alfresco study. http://www.internetnews.com/dev-news/article.php/3 690141 [internetnews.com]

Nothing to do with rubbish marketing (3, Informative)

zerogeewhiz (73483) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968427)

No, Novell's marketing is spot-on, it's the MS deal that's done it.

Novell haven't the faintest idea how to promote and articulate SUSE (do most people even know it's SUSE outside the geek community?) and are bleeding the people who can at a rapid rate, at least the ones I know.

CxO's don't give a toss about deals with MS, they care about brands and RedHat are as strong as they come backed up with better marketing.

I don't work for RedHat and I'm a Mac bigot, so I think I'm reasonably balanced.

Re:Nothing to do with rubbish marketing (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19974853)

I tried to install OpenSuse once. Did'nt work.

Re:Nothing to do with rubbish marketing (1)

Miguel de Icaza (660439) | more than 7 years ago | (#19979175)

"Novell haven't the faintest idea how to promote and articulate SUSE (do most people even know it's SUSE outside the geek community?) and are bleeding the people who can at a rapid rate, at least the ones I know."
I'm very confident the Novell management will find competent Managers to promote and articulate SUSE very quickly. After all, there are lots of extremely skilled people over in the Ximian division.

Don't get on The List (5, Interesting)

alucinor (849600) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968537)

So if I were a company evaluating whether to choose Novell over Redhat based solely on the Microsoft deal, I would definitely choose Redhat. Novel's deal with Microsoft has so many exceptions in it (doesn't cover "clone" or "foundry" or "other" products) and contridictions between the two companies (GPLv3 is/isn't covered) that all it seems to do get Microsoft's attention better for their "who could we sue" list. Because the deal surely doesn't protect you from getting sued, given all the exceptions.

I would rather go with Redhat where there's far less confusion going on. They offer protection anyways, through OIN.

Re:Don't get on The List (1)

hitest (713334) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968663)

"So if I were a company evaluating whether to choose Novell over Redhat based solely on the Microsoft deal, I would definitely choose Redhat."
Agreed. I personally don't run RH (I'm a Slackware/Debian user), but if I was choosing Linux for a company I'd go with the industry standard: Red Hat. Interesting to note that RH predicted that Novell would suffer as a result of the deal with MS. I think it is still too early to forecast the demise of Novell, but the survey results are interesting.

we dumped Novell on the patent deal. (2, Interesting)

sjwest (948274) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968849)

We used Suse way before Novell bought it, and the deal with Microsoft while good for the board of Novell fails in every other respect. Open means choice - not fud or payments to Microsoft for 'mob insurance'.

Instead of keeping Suse - we moved distro and yes we are happy. Move back to Novell ? - no thank you.

Re:we dumped Novell on the patent deal. (1)

Miguel de Icaza (660439) | more than 7 years ago | (#19979313)

Get over the stupidity that Novell somehow is in bed with MS. They made an agreement to indemnify their users. They are not shills for MS and told MS and Linux users explicitly that MS is full of crap (OK, figuratively) and that Linux is not infringing on any MS patents.
If you want to be a troll, be a smarter one. Otherwise, stop KDE, OPENOFFICE and SAMBA, the kernel and a shitload of other products that Novell contributes PILES of money and development to or be considered a hypocrite.
Novell does support the F/OSS community. They fought SCO, support OOXML, fund moonlight.NET, and develop Exchange conncetors for Evolution - and were doing what they thought was a good idea for their user base. I frankly don't think they deserve the backlash they are getting. Get over it. AAAGGGGGHGHHHHHHHHHH!!!!

Re:Don't get on The List (1)

jayp00001 (267507) | more than 7 years ago | (#19973897)

OIN is not protection simply an attempt to use the same mechanism Microsoft uses via aquiring patents and covenenting not to sue for patent violations. The difference is that Microsoft claims to already own the patents and OIN attempts to buy patent rights from holders. If OIN wanted to protect redhat users they would have to pay Microsoft on behalf of those users prior to the violation.

Re:Don't get on The List (1)

sensei moreh (868829) | more than 7 years ago | (#19975231)

An alternative perspective - suppose I'm an MS customer, yet I decide I need a Linux-based system for enterprise-level business-critical task. Which Linux-based OS do I choose? Well, when my friendly MS rep hands me a coupon for SuSE, I don't think I'd be doing much looking elsewhere. Disclaimer: I'm a Fedora user; I'd choose RedHat or Centos

Re:Don't get on The List (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19978769)

Moreover, if I had any understanding of the culture and community surrounding Linux, I'd have to be skeptical of the future prospects of a company that earned the ire of its community (i.e., its suppliers) compared to a company that is a respected participant and contributor to its community. The former company looks like it either has a deathwish or is making a desperate last gasp before going under, and that's not a company that I want to invest in as my supplier of critical technology.

Statistics... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19968625)

"Gallup polls about U.S. presidential candidates typically survey about 1,000 likely voters, while Alfresco surveyed more than 10,000 people, he said.'"

That does not matter.

Re:Statistics... (2, Insightful)

Phoenix00017 (1017168) | more than 7 years ago | (#19970197)

Indeed. I'm not sure why this point was made. n=1000 is generally enough to get statistically significant results. Having more than that in no way guarantees "more accuracy" or whatever they were trying to argue. What is important is the selection method [wikipedia.org] . An evenly distributed, random, blind sampling of 1000 people is going to be far more accurate than a self-selected survey of 1,000,000 people with similar opinions. I'm not saying this is what happened in this case (or that Gallup polls are better), but ultimately the number itself is irrelevant to the accuracy of the report once you've crossed a certain threshold. You reduce your error, but you might simply end up with a small standard error [wikipedia.org] centered on a biased response.

Alfresco? (3, Funny)

Mikkeles (698461) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968647)

'... are not limited to those enterprise customers using Alfresco software...'

Sorry, I don't programme outdoors; I'm in my parents' basement!

Re:Alfresco? (1)

asifyoucare (302582) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969425)

No mod points, but +5 funny.

Score for Alfresco (1)

Kur (195888) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968745)

Good for Alfresco. They've gotten loads of publicity over a non-scientific survey, a poorly written eWeek article and now, the Slashdot front page. And way to go Slashdot, maybe an editor will dupe the false story about FreeType and the MS/Novell patent agreement as well. Apparently, neither eWeek or Slashdot employ editors.

So, why would trash like this get published on Slashdot instead of something actually interesting, like http://arstechnica.com/articles/culture/novell-hac k-week-an-experiment-in-innovation.ars [arstechnica.com] ?

A note about statistics (5, Insightful)

rar (110454) | more than 7 years ago | (#19968771)

Gallup polls about U.S. presidential candidates typically survey about 1,000 likely voters, while Alfresco surveyed more than 10,000 people, he said.'"

I recall that my statistics professor explicitly pointed out a common mistake in statistics: "Contrary to what people typically believe, the size of the sample is often not as critical as getting an unbiased sample." If you call the home phone number of people during daytime and ask the ones who answer whether they are employed or not, you will not get good statistics. Regardless if you reach 1 000 or 10 000 people.

I have no idea if there is such a problem with the statistics presented here. I just want to point out their claim of sample size can not be taken to mean that their statistics are better than Gallup's.

MOD PARENT UP (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19969019)

Glad to see that people still understand some of the finer points in statistical sampling.

Re:MOD PARENT UP (1)

DragonFodder (712772) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969107)

I agree. Seems most people forget the basic axiom.

"There are lies, damned lies, and Statistics"

Re:A note about statistics (1)

SwashbucklingCowboy (727629) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969217)

That problem certainly exists here. The survey was of self-selected participants.

Re:A note about statistics (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19969639)

That's true.

If you increase the sample size by a factor of n, the estimate for standard deviation of the quantity you are estimating goes down by a factor of sqrt(n). So in our case the fact that 10 fold more people were surveyed in the Alfresco survey indicates that its estimate will be about 3 times less variable than the Gallup survey.

Interestingly, though, Gallup estimates proportions for the American population, so to obtain 95% confidence intervals of about +/- 2 percent, they need only sample about 1,000 people. More people does mean more accurate, but they get diminishing returns: if they sampled 10,000 people, their 95% confidence interval would be about +/- 2/3 percent, which isn't that big of a gain for sampling 10 fold more people. So they only sample about 1,000 people, and choose that sample well to minimize bias.

this is 6oatKsex (-1, Redundant)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19969135)

q80s, DARPA saw BSD everything else

I have a very small dataset (2, Interesting)

SocietyoftheFist (316444) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969393)

I have a buddy in the oil and gas industry, he has a small geophysics firm. The firm writes software and their customers have eschewed Windows, they don't want windows server/client components anymore, they want Linux. It used to be that they got quite a bit of requests for Linux and Windows but nobody is asking for Windows anymore. Nine times out of ten the customers want the software available as an RPM for RHEL. They also test on CentOS and Fedora but the vast majority of their customers want it to work on RHEL. I found it very interesting when I discussed it with him.

Re:I have a very small dataset (2, Interesting)

SocietyoftheFist (316444) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969497)

And also, they use QT because they like it's C++ API and they also believe KDevelop is the best IDE under Linux. These guys aren't UNIX/Linux geeks, they just work with what their customers ask for and use the tools they find to be the best after much testing.

PR Fluff & Unsupported conclusion (2, Interesting)

gsslay (807818) | more than 7 years ago | (#19969917)

The important phrase to take out of the article;

"Alfresco did not specifically ask community members the reason for their Linux choice"

So we have a self selecting sample, from which they've drawn conclusions on an issue they didn't even ask about. We're also left in the dark as to how Redhat compared to the other distros (like, for instance, flavour of the month Ubuntu) in recent months. So we don't know if the supposed surge in Redhat is more down to Redhat itself than disapproval of SUSE.

My analysis; this report is insignificant PR fluff, to which some fanboy has added cherry picked data to "prove" a political point he wished to make regardless.

No Pasta... (1)

ArcadeX (866171) | more than 7 years ago | (#19970101)

Am I the only one that read "Alfresco" and started thinking italian food?

Re:No Pasta... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 7 years ago | (#19970493)

"Al fresco" is the Italian equivalent to "outdoors". So if you eat Italian food "Alfresco" you're eating at an outside table.

release the weasels (1)

Gearoid_Murphy (976819) | more than 7 years ago | (#19970679)

release the survey weasels now, they're known for their impartiality and ethicality in these matters, possibly backed up by some ombudsman badgers, what could go wrong?, at the very least they'll stop the squirrels from spying

Microsoft partners = free to attack them (1)

sysadmintech (704387) | more than 7 years ago | (#19972575)

My read is that once you sign with Microsoft, Microsoft is free to attack you. Or Novell is doing better than Redhat. Or Redhat doesn't have to sign because they are partners with Microsoft in Microsoft's linux.
But who cares, this is Microsoft's stupid marketing because ... Novell Content Exchange ('00), IBM Workplace ('04), Zenworks 7 Management ('00), Extend Director 4 ('03) ... Novell users simply don't use Alfresco. Not before signing or after.

What about visability? (1)

utlemming (654269) | more than 7 years ago | (#19978599)

If you check out here [redhat.com] you will notice that Alfresco is listed at the number one project on the Red Hat Exchange. So maybe their downloads are three-times higher because Red Hat advertises for them for free. I dunno about you, but I would won't believe the results until they adjust for that (i.e. "Where did you hear about Alfresco?").

Post Hoc Fallacy (1)

tabbot (973632) | more than 7 years ago | (#19979975)

Event 1: Microsoft and Novell sign patent deal
Event 2: Redhat has better sales than Novell
Conclusion: there is a backlash against Novell and is losing customers.

This a logical fallacy of the type "Post Hoc ergo propter Hoc", http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter _hoc [wikipedia.org] .

Because Redhat's increased sales happened after Microsoft/Novell deal, doesn't mean there is a fallout. I doubt that is the case especially among 'corporate' customers. It could've been just better and targeted marketing on the part of Redhat to counter the deal.

I'll drop any distro that signs with Microsoft (1)

jddunlap (1083369) | more than 7 years ago | (#19986307)

As much as I like Red Hat based systems I'd switch to Debian in the blink of an eye if Red Hat signed an agreement with Microsoft, like Novell did.

Microsoft opposes everything that Linux has come to stand for. Linux is the best OS on the planet and it's completely free. If Microsoft was ever able to gain control of it those ass hats would start selling CALS for Linux servers, OEM stickers for Linux workstations, and sue your ass off if you didn't buy them. If you give Microsoft an inch they will walk all over you and they'll try to walk over you even if you don't. Just look at how hard Microsoft is trying to ramrod MSOOXML through the ISO standards committee. Do we really want Microsoft playing games with Linux? To hell with Microsoft's monopolistic games and any Linux distribution that signs with them.

Is there a backlash against Novell? Yes. The question isn't "Is there a backlash?" The question is, "Is the backlash large enough to make Novell's executives take notice."
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