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8 Can't Miss Predictions... for 1998

CmdrTaco posted more than 6 years ago | from the lot-easier-that-way dept.

Technology 125

alphadogg-nw writes "Tired of being wrong too often, a Network World pundit applies 20-20 hindsight to this list of prognostications for 1998, which if he's right will turn out to be quite a year. Among the forecasts: The U.S. Department of Justice will go medieval on Microsoft, Compaq will buy what's left of DEC, AOL likewise Netscape, Apple will introduce something said to look like an Easter egg ... and then there's the deafening buzz about this new search engine called Google."

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Digg? (0, Offtopic)

InvisblePinkUnicorn (1126837) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882218)

Should Slashdot just redirect to digg and get it over with? How is this news?

Re:Digg? (4, Insightful)

AstrumPreliator (708436) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882326)

Slashdot has a much more focused story selection, the front page isn't rife with spelling errors, grammatical errors, and poor headlines, and finally the moderated comments on Slashdot are usually pretty good and I enjoy reading them. If I want to see some funny picture from 2001 complete with a terrible headline and mind numbingly stupid comments I'll go to digg. I'm not trying to bash digg too hard since I do visit it about as frequently as slashdot, but slashdot is definitely easier to read and the comments are really what makes slashdot special to me.

Re:Digg? (4, Informative)

cHiphead (17854) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882664)

I "switched" to digg for about 2 months before it got excessively annoying. Ever since the interface change I've been 99% slashdot for comments, no more wasting my time on digg comments system, their useless trolls are nowhere near as entertaining as /.'s.

Cheers.

Re:Digg? (4, Funny)

sm62704 (957197) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882682)

the front page isn't rife with spelling errors, grammatical errors, and poor headlines

Um WHAT? You're talking about slashdot? THIS slashdot?

-mcgrew

Re:Digg? (5, Funny)

dbolger (161340) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882974)

I believe he was trying to keep his post on-topic.

Clearly he is referring to the Slashdot of 1998 ;)

The good old days weren't... (1)

Cid Highwind (9258) | more than 6 years ago | (#21888184)

Clearly, he doesn't remember the Slashdot of 1998.

Re:Digg? (0)

fbjon (692006) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883916)

No, he's talking about digg. For slashdot those are merely 'aggravatingly frequent'.

Why modded Troll? (-1, Troll)

WED Fan (911325) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882620)

Should Slashdot just redirect to digg and get it over with? How is this news?

Why was this one modded 'troll'? As soon as I got into this abortion of an article, I realized that the person who posted it to /. had had a serious lapse of judgement, almost as bad as the Seattle Fireworks article:

one blog commenter, claiming to have worked on prior shows, said that the shows run on Windows."
My best friend's sister's boyfriend's brother's girlfriend heard from this guy who knows this kid who's going with the girl who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night. I guess it's pretty serious.

Seriously, Taco, you're letting the quality of /. slip below Digg. Are you purposely trying to kill the brand?

Re:Why modded Troll? (2, Interesting)

ericspinder (146776) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883008)

Should Slashdot just redirect to digg and get it over with? How is this news?
Why was this one modded 'troll'?

Troll [wikipedia.org] - "is someone who posts controversial messages in an on-line community such as an on-line discussion forum with the intention of baiting other users into an emotional response." I think it fits, and would meta moderate it as such, if given the opportunity (and taking it).

Seriously, Taco, you're letting the quality of /. slip below Digg.

While I agree with you that /. editors could do a better job with some of the summaries and occasionally a particularly poor submission creeps in (slownewsday is often an appropriate tag for such stories), but it's hardy the mess that I've seen on Digg.

Re:Why modded Troll? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21887484)

but it's hardy the mess that I've seen on Digg

You must be one of those editors :-)

Bad headline (5, Informative)

MSTCrow5429 (642744) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882276)

The headline is misleading. These aren't predictions for 1998, they're written by a guy in 2008 as if they were written in 1998. That's what the "hindsight" part means.

My prediction for 2008: Major worldwide recession, due to the massive inflationary bubble bursting, an inability of the central banks to continue using inflation to create a false sense of prosperity, and stagflation.

Mod parent up (4, Funny)

elrous0 (869638) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882346)

And tell Taco to RTFA too.

Re:Mod parent up (4, Insightful)

Pharmboy (216950) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882420)

No reason to RTFA, its lame, and it appears it is a very slow news day and they needed something on the front page for this hour. I hate being so negative, but if you do REFA, you will see that this is really weak.

Re:Mod parent up (2, Informative)

Forge (2456) | more than 6 years ago | (#21887468)

Actually what's wrong with taco's post is the icon.

This article should have had the "foot". Except that it was not that funny :(

PS: In a side note, this journalist (Paul McNamara) is probably just training to become a stock market annalist. A profession dominated by guys who make a living by "Predicting the past" with moderate accuracy.

good headline (1)

Racemaniac (1099281) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882400)

well, that's exactly what the headline and summary told me ^^
maybe you're not so good at getting hints or so, but it was quite clear to me...

and if the headline didn't make things clear, the summary should be...

Re:Bad headline (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21882402)

No, you need to RTFA. The predictions ARE for 1998, just not written in 1997.

Re:Bad headline (3, Insightful)

$RANDOMLUSER (804576) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882550)

If it occurs after the fact, it's not a prediction.

Re:Bad headline (1)

eat here_get gas (907110) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883688)

but Ive never heard of a postdiction...

Re:Bad headline (1)

Nullav (1053766) | more than 6 years ago | (#21885386)

Nah, it was just a postemptive prediction.

Re:Bad headline (5, Funny)

sm62704 (957197) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882880)

My predictions for 2008, all will happen (balls of crystal, I tell ya)
  • the earth will not be hit by an extinction-causing assteroid [wikipedia.org]
  • Someone will invent something. The invention may actually be useful
  • Somebody will launch something or someone into outer space.
  • Someone will post "FIRST POST! with the comment "frosty piss" and be modded "offtopic"
  • Someone will say something about the USSR, Natalie Portmen, a Beowolf cluster, or CowboyNeal and be modded "+5 funny"
  • I will continue to write slashdot journals about prostitutes [slashdot.org]
  • I will get at least one haircut this year. Maybe this afternoon.
  • CmdrTaco won't command her "taco"
  • Google [whatever] will remain in beta
  • Microsoft will keep pissing everyone off
  • 2008 will not see Linux overtake Windows
  • I'll be turned down and stood up
  • CowboyNeal won't get laid


-mcgrew

Re:Bad headline (1)

fbjon (692006) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883998)

(balls of crystal, I tell ya)
So who's viewing them?

Re:Bad headline (4, Funny)

red_dragon (1761) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884768)

In Soviet Russia, Natalie Portman uses a Beowulf cluster built by CowboyNeal to submit a first post with the comment "frosty piss".

There you go, you can scratch one off of your list. You're welcome.

Re:Bad headline (1)

Doctor Faustus (127273) | more than 6 years ago | (#21886486)

Someone will say something about the USSR, Natalie Portmen, a Beowolf cluster, or CowboyNeal and be modded "+5 funny"
Wait, so does your post count?

Re:Bad headline (1)

Kazymyr (190114) | more than 6 years ago | (#21888670)

My predictions for 1945:

WWII will end
Hitler will commit suicide
A new explosive device will be invented that can obliterate a city

Re:Bad headline (1)

Citizen of Earth (569446) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883504)

My prediction for 2008: Idiots predicting imminent doom like they always have.

Re:Bad headline (2, Insightful)

MSTCrow5429 (642744) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883984)

Yeah, but sometimes, if you have even a dim understanding of economics and finance, and you follow current events, it doesn't take a Cassandra to sound the alarms. I've acquired something more than a merely dim understanding of economics and finance, mind you. As for imminent doom, such as Earth being blasted by a gamma ray burst (unless we aren't being told something), or global warming, yeah, that's the idiots talking.

Predictions for 2008 (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21883534)

My prediction for 2008: Major worldwide recession, due to the massive inflationary bubble bursting, an inability of the central banks to continue using inflation to create a false sense of prosperity, and stagflation.

Add to that: $7/gallon gasoline in the USA, unemployment rates rising to 15% or higher, major upswings in crime rates, further tightening of the grip by the police state mentalities, more erosion of people's rights and freedoms and govt intrusions into privacy, riots in large cities, rise of vigilatism by people who've had enough, another stolen election, and big media trying to distract all the stupid public's attention away from reality by focusing in with even more sensationalistic news coverage of some Hollywood bimbos' pregnancies/drug arrests/relationship affairs/whatever.

Re:Predictions for 2008 (2, Funny)

Toonol (1057698) | more than 6 years ago | (#21885198)

Amazingly enough, 2008 will be the year in which everything collapses. All economic, social, and political issues will come to their inevitably horrible conclusions.

No, really, it will be this year. All the portents are there. Similar predictions for all previous years were due to misinterpreting the signs.

Of course, if my warning is heeded, we may stave off the collapse for another year. That just reinforces how correct my predictions were.

Re:Predictions for 2008 (3, Informative)

wertarbyte (811674) | more than 6 years ago | (#21885940)

Add to that: $7/gallon gasoline in the USA

Oh boy, stop crying: 7 (U.S. dollars / US gallon) = 1.2587328 Euros / liter

We are way past that in europe (approaching 1.5 EUR here in germany) for some time now. And guess what? Civilisation is not collapsing.

Re:Predictions for 2008 (4, Insightful)

Abreu (173023) | more than 6 years ago | (#21886290)

But please remember that most europeans have access to decent public transportation... Poor gringos have to drive everywhere...

and Google has not innovated since (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21882280)

Seriously, apart from their better straight search algorithm, almost everything is bought or copied. And the fact that they're so popular says more about the state of Internet search in general rather than their achievements.

Just a second there (2, Informative)

Bandman (86149) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882496)

Re:Just a second there (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21883394)

You're confusing a refutation with an ability to put a link on a page.

Which of the items on that page represent innovation, rather than purchase or copying an existing system?

(N.B. Google collaborative tools often use concepts that they've simply scoured the web for, hiring people involved in projects that impress them. Marks will not be given for these examples.)

Innovation (1)

Per Abrahamsen (1397) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883654)

You confuse the ability to make unfounded claims with the ability to make an argument.

> Which of the items on that page represent innovation, rather than purchase or copying an existing system?

A priori, all of them. You can't prove a negative, so the burden of proof is on you to show prior art for each item.

[ The common claim here that Microsoft doesn't innovate is usually followed by prior art for all counter examples. Of course the claim is nonetheless false, Microsoft Research (kind of equivalent to Google Labs) does lost of innovation, they are just rarely successfully commercialized. ]

Re:Innovation (1, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21886724)

A priori, all of them. You can't prove a negative, so the burden of proof is on you to show prior art for each item.
Heavens, man, think! A link to "everything that Google is playing with or has thrown into the wild recently" as a proof that Google innovates is of the same order as waving in the direction of the Vatican's archives for proof that God exists. "The burden of proof is on you to show that everything there in favour of God's existence is false."

Considering only completed projects, we have:
  1. Google Transit - any number of integrated public transport route planning services, such as Transport for London.
     
  2. GOOG-411 - search for businesses WITH MY VOICE? My goodness! Thomson Local directory? Or is the feature that I never get to speak to a human who can actually understand what I'm saying? Combining "voice recognition" with "directory enquiries" is not innovation.
     
  3. Google Reader - is an RSS reader.
     
  4. Google Notebook - TextHelp R&W.
     
  5. Google Docs - see grandparent.
     
  6. Google Video - now you're just insulting me.
     
  7. Personalized Search - browser history, stored online. Wowsers.
     
  8. iGoogle - how Google becomes like Altavista/Yahoo of the '90s without fucking up the homepage.
     
  9. Google Maps - Streetmap, Multimap, etc.
     
  10. Google Scholar - a searchable database of journals, you say? If only I'd had that in my formative years! Oh wait, I did.
     
  11. Google Desktop - BeOS? Windows Vista pre-alphas? Hell, htdig.
     
  12. Google Groups - nee dejanews, now non-usenet forum goodness. Do I really need to give prior art on "web discussion forums"?

I'm bored now. Either you were being lazy to the point of dishonesty when you posted, or you're an idiot. Aggregation of similar databases so that they can be searched from one form is not innovation. Slapping an HTML interface on old tech is not innovation. Google is a UI company - and it does not even innovate in the UI space.

Altavista (4, Interesting)

hey! (33014) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882294)

Y'know, I liked Altavista a great deal. It was a rare case of a great product getting its block knocked off by an even better one. Still, for some time I found Altavista's more bells-and-whistley approach useful for triangulatin Google results, at least until Google engineers seemingly perfected their MROIPP (Mind Reading Over Internet Protocols Protocol) technology.

Re:Altavista (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21882330)

MROIPP is what the governments of the world [snipurl.com] are working on...

Re:Altavista (2, Funny)

scsirob (246572) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882376)

Just wondering if 'Alta' and 'Vista' were actually meant to be two words, as in "Old Vista". Looks like they are doing equally well as the "New Vista". sort-of-ok start, followed by a quick demise once a real alternative shows up...

Re:Altavista (3, Informative)

Ours (596171) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882548)

It's Spanish:
Alta = something high
Vista = view
Translated to "high-view" and from my understanding it's some place in California.

Re:Altavista (1)

Marcos Eliziario (969923) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883506)

Strange Coincidences?

AltaVISTA was from DEC.
A lot of the engineers who wrote windows NT came from DEC, Windows Vista is basically a reincarnation of NT.

(PS: Yeah, I know, it's bullshit. And I am grateful that there is not a "-1 Stupid Moron" option, but you can use Troll or Flamebait as usual)

Re:Altavista (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21886388)

Yes, most likely. Still I find it interesting, but I don't have any mod points.

Re:Altavista (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21882858)

Y'know, I liked Altavista a great deal.
As did I. Back when Google started to rise AltaVista was pretty bad by comparison, but not too long ago when Google failed to find what I was looking for AltaVista actually came through. Today it's pretty darn good in terms of results, but it still lacks certain useful feature like an equivalent of Google's cache. It's the only two search engines I've used regularly ever since I first got online, never could stand Yahoo!, and personally I think AltaVista's looks cooler than Google.

Re:Altavista (3, Interesting)

Vellmont (569020) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884202)


Y'know, I liked Altavista a great deal. It was a rare case of a great product getting its block knocked off by an even better one.

I liked Altavista too, and had a similar reaction about it being better than Google until about 2000.

The only quibble I have is that AltaVista died because they started thinking they were a portal like Yahoo, and not a search engine. They didn't figure out targeted ads, turned their site into a Yahoo clone, and did a "me too!" with email. If they'd done what Google did, focus on the search technology, give away better email than Yahoo was giving away at the time, and stop trying to beat Yahoo at being Yahoo, I think Google would still mean "a really big number".

Re:Altavista (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21887288)

They didn't figure out targeted ads, turned their site into a Yahoo clone, and did a "me too!" with email.

Worse than that, they did a "screw you" with email. My years-old, two-letter @altavista.net email was discontinued and I was told to select among some three+plus letter @altavista.com address. Email being what it is, I refrained from free email providers since then for anything serious.

Re:Altavista (3, Informative)

SharpFang (651121) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884690)

Unfortunately, no, by the end, not.

I stayed with Altavista quite long. I tried Google once, soon after it emerged, didn't feel impressed and went back to Altavista. And for the time, It Was Good.

I kept using it for another 2 or 3 years and saw it go down the drain.

First, they fell victim to spammers. People figured out how to position their sites with it, and any somewhat common keyword yielded many pages of commercial junk before you could get to content, and first 10 or so positions for mostly -any- keyword were occupied by spam links.

Then they started adding ads. Sponsored links replacing first search results, some obnoxious popups, really bad junk. Remember these were times before Adblock. It was utter junk.

Then it stopped keeping up with progress. Sites took months to get indexed, and 404s even more to get removed. The results were a total junk.

I gave Google another chance and was hugely impressed. It was still before people figured out most of pagerank tricks and Google was almost totally spam-free. I had my results within first 3-4 links, not after 3-4 pages!

Red Queen was right: "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place."

Wow! That was easy. (5, Funny)

morgan_greywolf (835522) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882310)

My predictions for 1988:

10. MS-DOS 4.0 will ship, finally, by mid-year. It will be so buggy and crash so much that Microsoft will be forced to release an update, MS-DOS 4.01, by year's end.
9. Liquid crystal will be discovered by Frederick Reintzer.
8. Someone will introduce a simple network management protocol, probably called SNMP. Nobody will care.
7. An alternative bus to IBM's Micro Channel Architecture will be introduced. Expect it to be called something like EISA -- Extended Industry Standard Architecture.
6. An Internet Relay Chat system called IRC will be developed.
5. A company called Creative Labs will introduce a sound card called the SoundBlaster, which will establish defacto standards for years to come.
4. People obsessed with clocks will introduce the Network Time Protocol, which will allow computers to sync their clocks over the Internet.
3. The first T-1 backbone will be added to ARPANET.
2. Motorola will release a new processor, the 88000. No one will care.
1. Apple will sue Microsoft over the trash can icon.

Re:Wow! That was easy. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21882408)

My letter to the editor from 1988.

What is this "internet" you speak of?

Re:Wow! That was easy. (1)

morgan_greywolf (835522) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884996)

Al Gore? Is that you?

All kidding aside, the technology needed for the Internet was 'invented' in 1973-1974 timeframe. The Internet, as it were, was officially rolled out in 1983.

Re:Wow! That was easy. (3, Informative)

root_42 (103434) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882432)

> My predictions for 1988: ...
> 9. Liquid crystal will be discovered by Frederick Reintzer.

According to Wikipedia [1] that happened in 1888.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquid_crystals#History [wikipedia.org]

Re:Wow! That was easy. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21883364)

According to Wikipedia [1] that happened in 1888.
Hence prediction for 1988.

Re:Wow! That was easy. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21886268)

Look closer.

1888 != 1988

Re:Wow! That was easy. (1)

multipartmixed (163409) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883578)

That sounds about right.

I seem to recall liquid crystal displays replacing LEDs in watches and calculators in the 1970s.

Actually, LEDs and those super-cool bluish neon tube thingies. Not nixies, the little ones. What the hell were they called?

Re:Wow! That was easy. (1)

Dr. Zim (21278) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884604)

Vacuum Tube Florescent Displays - still my favorite

Re:Wow! That was easy. (2, Interesting)

Your Pal Dave (33229) | more than 6 years ago | (#21886452)

That sounds about right.
Actually, LEDs and those super-cool bluish neon tube thingies. Not nixies, the little ones. What the hell were they called?
Probably early vacuum fluorescent displays (VFD) [wikipedia.org] . I built a digital clock kit back in the '70s using them, they came as individual 7 segment displays packaged in what looked like small vacuum tubes with long solder leads.

Re:Wow! That was easy. (1)

RAMMS+EIN (578166) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884138)

I found your predictions much more interesting than the ones of TFA. Yet TFA got posted to the front page of /.. Well, at least it's sparked good posts. Like yours. Well done!

Wow! (4, Funny)

Otter (3800) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882314)

In a first-of-its-kind case, a California jury will convict a U.C.-Irvine dropout, Richard Machado, of sending threatening and hateful e-mail to students of Asian dissent.

Between the timeliness of this story, his spelling, and his belief that Bill Gates is facing criminal charges, Paul McNamara sounds like he'd fit in well here as an editor.

Re:Wow! (2, Insightful)

ByOhTek (1181381) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882452)

I like how the iMac revolutionized personal computing the most funny.

It made it come in a smaller package, but hardly revolutionized given it's comparatively small takeup to other computer styles, and the fact that it didn't really change how a computer was used.

Re:Wow! (3, Insightful)

MightyYar (622222) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882542)

About the only things you can give credit to the iMac for are re-animating Apple and popularizing USB.

Re:Wow! (1)

MMC Monster (602931) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882604)

About the only things you can give credit to the iMac for are re-animating Apple and popularizing USB.
Don't forget getting rid of the 3.5" floppy drive. Those things were not going away in the PC world, even though they were good for nothing.

I just with the iMacs popularized firewire instead of USB. USB for anything more than mice and keyboards (looking over at those external hard drives in the corener of the store...) is not nearly as efficient as firewire.

Re:Wow! (1)

blhack (921171) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882862)

Don't forget getting rid of the 3.5" floppy drive. Those things were not going away in the PC world, even though they were good for nothing.
is this supposed to be sarcastic? The loss of the floppy drive is one of the biggest pains in the butt as far as home/office computing goes. Without a floppy, there is no rewritable, removable, bootable media that you can use for recovery when something goes awry (at that time).

Granted, cd writers have become ubiquitous...but there is nothing that beats a DOS boot disk in a pinch.

Re:Wow! (1)

SilentBob0727 (974090) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882966)

there is no rewritable, removable, bootable media that you can use for recovery
You're right [tigerdirect.com] .

Re:Wow! (1)

PReDiToR (687141) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884150)

USB booting is a luxury that still hasn't come to my house.

Even having 8 IDE devices onboard isn't enough when you just want to boot off your own USB recovery key.
Chainloader doesn't work until you have USB support, and VMware isn't always the best test environment.

Re:Wow! (1)

eclectic4 (665330) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883966)

Um, on a Mac, and you could even do this with the old G3 iMacs that had firewire, any FW external hard drive could be used as the boot drive. For PCs, yes, you are correct, but we weren't talking about PCs...

Re:Wow! (1)

Neil Hodges (960909) | more than 6 years ago | (#21885322)

I don't know; I've been booting off of CDs for the longest time (mainly for installing some *nix), and all of my old floppy disks have since gone bad.

Re:Wow! (1)

MightyYar (622222) | more than 6 years ago | (#21885948)

Yeah, I can't even tell you the last time I saw a floppy disk recovery disk. Spin Rite still goes that way, but can be put on a CD as well. I have a program that makes a floppy disk image into a bootable USB stick, but haven't used it in ages. It's hard to find a computer that can't write to a CD these days.

Still have a floppy drive on my current PC, though it is behind the front panel of the case - you have to open the front of the case to get to it. I did that because it was ugly, I wasn't using it, and it kept filling with dust :)

Re:Wow! (1)

ByOhTek (1181381) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882712)

I thought USB was popular prior to the iMac. If I remember correctly, it was Firewire that they helped bring to the forefront.

Re:Wow! (1)

Otter (3800) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882834)

No, it was USB. (It had been in use before, but was poorly supported.) For years after, almost all USB peripherals were made of translucent blue plastic.

Re:Wow! (3, Informative)

egomaniac (105476) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882872)

I thought USB was popular prior to the iMac. If I remember correctly, it was Firewire that they helped bring to the forefront.

Nope, it was USB. Everybody on the Windows side of things was still using the legacy ports, it was hard to find USB peripherals and they were buggy. The iMac's popularity forced manufacturers to add decent USB support to their devices. Printers went parallel + USB, mice switched over to USB w/ PS/2 adapters, etc. Plus everything was available in your choice of five translucent colors.

And the damned legacy adapters still won't die over on the PC side of things. Most KVM switches, for example, still only support PS/2 connectors, and I had to buy a USB-to-DB9 connector to be able to program my universal remote control. Love Apple or hate 'em, you've got to admit that they're good at getting people to drop the old broken standards and move forward. We need to put them in charge of getting the US over to metric.

Re:Wow! (1)

ByOhTek (1181381) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882962)

I bought my USB (no PS/2) KVM several years ago. IOGear, it's actually a nice piece of equipment. When I got it there were several models out by several companies. There have been a number since.

My current mail/web server runs off of a circa 97 (maybe '98? It's a Tyan Trinity S1598 motherboard) x86 box with USB on it (built into the motherboard), and it works perfectly.

I've seen plenty of legacy, but in every case, both legacy and non-legacy have been available, in many both have been available in the same product. It's nice to have all the options if you don't want to upgrade yet.

Re:Wow! (1)

Abreu (173023) | more than 6 years ago | (#21888384)

Love Apple or hate 'em, you've got to admit that they're good at getting people to drop the old broken standards and move forward. We need to put them in charge of getting the US over to metric.
We can only dream

Re:Wow! (1)

MightyYar (622222) | more than 6 years ago | (#21886156)

My memory is a bit hazy, but I remember it being somewhat amusing. I think that Intel was pushing USB, while Apple and MS both wanted Firewire. Windows 98 shipped with good Firewire support, but not USB. The iMac was the opposite - shipping only with USB and no Firewire. Weird. I think that the iMac really is what pushed MS into supporting USB. I remember clearly having Intel-based motherboards with USB on the back, but they didn't do anything because the OS didn't support them.

Re:Wow! (1)

calyphus (646665) | more than 6 years ago | (#21887796)

memory is a bit hazy...Intel was pushing USB, while Apple and MS both wanted Firewire Your memory is missing one item. Intel developed USB with a theoretical capacity of 127 devices per port, but had difficulty getting it to actually work as spec'd. Apple got it to work reliably. Until Apple engineers fixed it USB was not ready for mass use. It's a great example of how Apple delivers real plug and play vs. a microsoft slogan "Plug 'n Play" which really meant plug 'n pray.

Re:Wow! (1)

peragrin (659227) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882670)

The iMac tossed out the floppy drive and relied on USB instead of old connectors. If the iMac revolutionized anything It should computers didn't have to be a large beige box, that looked it like belongs in a cube farm instead of someone's home. It took Dell 5 more years to figure that part out.

Re:Wow! (1)

cnettel (836611) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883000)

Yeah, but the fact that it took Dell five additional years could also be interpreted in the way that the introduction of the iMac wasn't really that groundbreaking. The same could be said about the 3.5" floppy drive -- they continued to be included in many PCs for many years after that, and the real killer there was reasonably the CD writers and (USB!) flash drives, in addition to very widespread networking. The original iMac didn't have a CD writer, and as small USB flash memories were non-existent, I would argue that they were too early. (BTW, I hope no one would say that the original Macintosh killed the 5.25" floppy...)

Re:Wow! (1)

rmerry72 (934528) | more than 6 years ago | (#21888222)

If the iMac revolutionized anything It should computers didn't have to be a large beige box, that looked it like belongs in a cube farm instead of someone's home. It took Dell 5 more years to figure that part out.

Cause that's the important feature of an computing device. It looks nice - well, er, nicer than a beige box. Cause Dell were just aiming at a different type of sheep. Maybe Apple can "innovate" handbags or fridges next. Hell, maybe Jobs should talk to NASA. I betcha a few "important" design modifications - like a new shape and colour paint - will fix those tired old space shuttles right up, and we be flying to the moon by 2012!

Re:Wow! (2)

mini me (132455) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883940)

The plastic on the iMac was pretty revolutionary. Even today, you still see several products that were inspired by the original iMac design.

oooooh (3, Funny)

LiquidCoooled (634315) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882336)

6. Prediction: Congress to pass Digital Millennium Copyright Act.

The skinny: Congress will approve the DMCA by a unanimous vote and President Clinton will sign it into law, because, well, everyone favors copyright protection.

Long-term outlook: The only possible trouble with this one that I can foresee would be if someone were to launch a Web site that allowed anyone and everyone to post video clips of whatever they pleased. That might get sticky.


I thought pornotube was stickier than youtube, but I suppose both are up to their necks.

Dupe somehow (1)

192939495969798999 (58312) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882340)

Isn't this somehow a dupe since all those were probably posted when they really happened?

It's Deja News all over again (1)

davidwr (791652) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882378)

Deja News [archive.org] circa 1998.

Apparently... (1)

angryfirelord (1082111) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882392)

...someone's generating ad revenue again.

Dumb (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21882406)

This is a really, really dumb article. I'm astonished that this made it to /.'s front page ... wtf?

Re:Dumb (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21882584)

you know i hear that about every article slashdot posts... If you can't stand slashdot move to digg

Predictions from 1998 (1)

drewsup (990717) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882418)

I predict that Duke Nukem Forever will be out for Q 2 0f 2010 and that it will positively kick ass!

Predicting the past? (5, Insightful)

Per Abrahamsen (1397) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882458)

Eh, I guess I miss something, what is the point of predicting the past? Poorly?

Re:Predicting the past? (2, Insightful)

katre (44238) | more than 6 years ago | (#21883010)

We have this thing called humor. This article may be a sub-par example of humor, but that would seem to be its point.

A question - (4, Funny)

banda (206438) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882532)

What exactly are "students of Asian dissent"?

Would that include anyone who took a 20th century history class? Why be mad at them?

Re:A question - (1)

nullCRC (320940) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882564)

What did they dissent from?

Re:A question - (1)

cylcyl (144755) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882902)

What exactly are "students of Asian dissent"?
You know, it's those darn Youth-In-Asia people.

Re:A question - (3, Funny)

Grandiloquence (1180099) | more than 6 years ago | (#21885598)

"Students of Asian dissent" would include anyone who studies people who claim not to be Asian, obviously.

Re:A question - (1)

Hacker-at-Large (413176) | more than 6 years ago | (#21886880)

That would be those protesting legalized euthanasia

Buzz (1)

michaelmalak (91262) | more than 6 years ago | (#21882590)

deafening buzz about this new search engine called Google
Funny thing about that buzz [slashdot.org] -- other search engines of the time had equal or better results, such as directhit/HotBot [websearchworkshop.co.uk] , which used click-throughs and dwell times to improve search results for subsequent users -- something Google is only now getting around to doing.

Re:Buzz (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21883584)

I used to use HotBot. It was a lot better than the old guard search engines of the day (lycos, altavista, etc.) but it wasn't nearly as good as google. Google produced good search results on a wide variety of search topics, even relatively obscure topics, and did so consistently. HotBot and the other next-gen search competitors were never as consistent as google.

Re:Buzz (1)

cnettel (836611) | more than 6 years ago | (#21885628)

The buzz are not about good hits, it's about funny ones, like all evil and Microsoft... (Hey, that's how I first heard of Google.)

ten year predictions more interesting (1)

peter303 (12292) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884000)

Most one-year predictions are simple extrapolations of current trends, or guessing which pre-announced products will be hits. Even so they can be wrong. Subprime collapse was not in the 12/31/2006 prediction lists.

Ten years out is a lot harder. In the late 1980s you had the feeling computer networks would be important, especially if you used them at an university. But the huge onrush in of the InterNet and browsers in 1994 was somewhat of a surprise. It was hard to foresee the quantum jump in use and that exact year.
Ditto for internet video. There was a lot of "toy" video stuff since 2000, but the 2006 youtube rush was a surprise to me. Thta turn it from a toy into a utility.

Re:ten year predictions more interesting (1)

RAMMS+EIN (578166) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884244)

``There was a lot of "toy" video stuff since 2000, but the 2006 youtube rush was a surprise to me.''

What wasn't a surprise, though, is that _they_ have been promising us good quality movies on demand over th Internet since at least 1994, but that promise has completely failed to deliver.

Seriously. Why is it that we can watch movies on TV for "free" (ad or public funding supported), but if you want to do the same on the Internet, you have to jump through all kinds of hoops (pay fees, install wacky proprietary software, etc. etc.)? It's not like there is any technical problem that I can see. We have the codecs, we have the bandwidth, we even have the content and the revenue model. So why isn't it there yet?

Re:ten year predictions more interesting (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21887328)

not enough dump trucks

To boldly go (1)

oniony (228405) | more than 6 years ago | (#21884256)

Why are the 5 and 8 not bold?

DoJ vs MS (1)

toby (759) | more than 6 years ago | (#21885236)

The U.S. Department of Justice will go medieval on Microsoft

...And we know how that turned out. Sigh.

Re:DoJ vs MS (1)

Abreu (173023) | more than 6 years ago | (#21888474)

Instead of that, think that Microsoft went medieval on the US Goverment... the purchased a plenary indulgence [wikipedia.org]
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