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Toshiba Execs Declare HD DVD Not Dead Yet

Zonk posted more than 6 years ago | from the they're-doing-science-and-they're-still-alive dept.

516

Lucas123 writes "HD DVD proponent Toshiba remains defiant that its format will not succumb to the mounting tsunami of support for Blu-ray Discs. Akio Ozaka, head of Toshiba America Consumer Products, said at CES today that he was surprised by Warner's decision." It should also be noted that the HD DVD group has cancelled many of their meetings at CES.

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It's only MOSTLY dead. (4, Funny)

JustShootMe (122551) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938594)

...In-con-CEIV-able.

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead. (-1, Redundant)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21939086)

God help me for posting this, but you knew it was only a matter of time...


It's official; ComputerWorld now confirms: HD DVD is dying

One more crippling bombshell hit the already beleaguered HD DVD community when IDG confirmed that HD DVD market share has dropped yet again, now down to less than a fraction of 1 percent of all home theater systems. Coming close on the heels of a recent ComputerWorld survey which plainly states that HD DVD has lost more market share, this news serves to reinforce what we've known all along. HD DVD is collapsing in complete disarray, as fittingly exemplified by falling dead last in the recent CES public survey.

You don't need to be a Kreskin to predict HD DVD's future. The hand-writing is on the wall: HD DVD faces a bleak future. In fact there won't be any future at all for HD DVD because HD DVD is dying. Things are looking very bad for HD DVD. As many of us are already aware, HD DVD continues to lose market share. Red lasers flow like a river of blood.

Toshiba is the most endangered of them all, having lost 93% of its core HD DVD developers. The sudden and unpleasant departures of long time Toshiba HD DVD developers Guy Smiley and Rosco P. Coltrane only serve to underscore the point more clearly. There can no longer be any doubt: HD DVD is dying.

All major surveys show that HD DVD has steadily declined in market share. HD DVD is very sick and its long term survival prospects are very dim. If HD DVD is to survive at all it will be among videophile dilettante dabblers. HD DVD continues to decay. Nothing short of a cockeyed miracle could save HD DVD from its fate at this point in time. For all practical purposes, HD DVD is dead.

Fact: HD DVD is dying

Re:It's only MOSTLY dead. (5, Funny)

Divebus (860563) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939324)

Not dead yet: Toshiba execs standing there with stopwatches saying "Wait for it... wait for it..."

It ain't over till the fat lady sings... (5, Funny)

flyingfsck (986395) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938606)

So watch out when they release classical operas on HD DVD.

Well I think.... (-1, Troll)

professional_troll (1178701) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938764)

People who watch classical operas are cunts, just like you Blu Ray cock-smoking monkeys

Re:It ain't over till the fat lady sings... (2, Insightful)

Z00L00K (682162) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939236)

Or when the Dead Parrot [mtholyoke.edu] appears...

"No, no, 'e's uh,...he's resting."

Re:It ain't over till the fat lady sings... (1)

The_Mystic_For_Real (766020) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939276)

Or the next *BSD release...

Re:It ain't over till the fat lady sings... (1)

hedwards (940851) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939372)

That's apt considering that there should be one within the next couple of months. Kind of good for an OS family with 0% marketshare. ;-)

I'm just not sure why they can't do everybody a favor and just take a dive. The amount of money this is costing the film industry, and the number of people that are being pressured to put off making a purchase of either is large enough to justify giving up for the common good.

Endless recreations of the Dead Parrot Sketch (3, Funny)

stox (131684) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938608)

to follow.

Re:Endless recreations of the Dead Parrot Sketch (5, Funny)

Spudtrooper (1073512) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938628)

Alternatively:

Toshiba declares that HD-DVD feels happy, would like to go for a walk.

Re:Endless recreations of the Dead Parrot Sketch (1)

JustShootMe (122551) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938640)

That there is almost good enough to be a fark headline.

Re:Endless recreations of the Dead Parrot Sketch (1)

pushing-robot (1037830) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938800)

I don't want to go on the fark!

Re:Endless recreations of the Dead Parrot Sketch (1)

Eccles (932) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938642)

I was thinking "Holy Grail" myself.

"I want to go for a walk!"
"You're not fooling anyone, you know."

Re:Endless recreations of the Dead Parrot Sketch (1)

omeomi (675045) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938990)

I feel happy! I feel happy!

Re:Endless recreations of the Dead Parrot Sketch (1)

AHuxley (892839) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939240)

Or Bring out your dead! http://www.youtube.com/my_messages [youtube.com]

Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (2, Interesting)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21938620)

There are some 10-15 million rabid Sony hating Xbox/Microsoft fans in the US. They will support any 'not Sony format' with a fanatical commitment that is easily mistaken for broad consumer support.

Toshiba fell victim to believing HD-DVD was going to ever be supported by anyone beyond that niche demographic. And it cost hundreds of millions in their losing battle against BluRay.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (3, Funny)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21938678)

Aren't I allowed to hate *both* MS and Sony?

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (2, Insightful)

Stormwatch (703920) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939124)

Aren't I allowed to hate *both* MS and Sony?
Yes. Buy a Wii (if you can find one).

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (4, Insightful)

The Analog Kid (565327) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938684)

Toshiba should have demanded that the 360 carry an HD-DVD drive standard. The addon carries extra bulk, and if you combine that with the cost of the 360, you might as well have just bought a PS3 instead.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (4, Informative)

dabraun (626287) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938708)

Toshiba should have demanded that the 360 carry an HD-DVD drive standard. The addon carries extra bulk, and if you combine that with the cost of the 360, you might as well have just bought a PS3 instead.


How would they demand that? Microsoft simply does not care about HD-DVD enough to risk tanking it's game console like Sony did (by forcing the price up for something that doesn't actually help games).

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1)

JebusIsLord (566856) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938742)

I suppose, if you don't mind not having games to play. I bought a 360 and the HD drive at the same time over a year ago, and while i'm disappointed that HD-DVD seems to have lost, I did rent a lot of high-def movies in the past year. The $200 is at least mostly justified. AND I got to play some sweet-ass games that weren't available on the PS3.

In a year or so i'll be picking up a PS3, and then the ol' HD-DVD drive can go in a closet.

War would have ended if HD-DVD shipped in Elite (4, Interesting)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939060)

Toshiba should have demanded that the 360 carry an HD-DVD drive standard.

That move would have won the format war outright.

A little less clear, but I feel just as certain victory would have Microsoft include HD-DVD with the Elite model. That would have been around the time of the Paramount switch, and the momentum of those two moves would have fed off each other to spook people away from Blu-Ray and probably get either Fox or Disney to go neutral in teh same way the Warner move has spooked people off HD-DVD and probably is forcing retailers and consumers to support Blu-Ray exclusively very soon.. It's not like you can really argue at that point it would have made the 360 cost prohibitive since it would only be on the top-line model anyway.

Just as Sony won the format war through costly initial action, so Microsoft helped destroy HD-DVD through penny-pinching inaction. I guess Toshiba should have tried to wire the HD-DVD contract with the Three Laws of HD-DVD media.

Re:War would have ended if HD-DVD shipped in Elite (0, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21939118)

"That move would have won the format war outright."

Bullshit. Absolute bullshit.

Unlikely (5, Insightful)

Namarrgon (105036) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939352)

Toshiba should have demanded that the 360 carry an HD-DVD drive standard.

That move would have won the format war outright.

Doubtful. But it would certainly have subjected the 360 to the same cost and time overruns that the PS3 suffered from.

No-one would argue that much of the 360's current success is due to it launching a year earlier with a cheaper price. Making the HD disc player optional might (in the long run) make it harder for devs to squeeze large games in, but definitely kept the console cheaper and simpler for the so-crucial first couple of years of its life.

As for putting it in the Elite, its sales weren't large enough to make much difference to Toshiba, and increasing the cost would not have helped that. Armchair analysts can call it "penny pinching", but in the world of business, the user always pays in the end. Sony's decision to sacrifice their Playstation brand on the altar of Blu-Ray success has cost them dearly [variety.com] , at least in the short term.

Re:War would have ended if HD-DVD shipped in Elite (3, Insightful)

MarcoAtWork (28889) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939354)

A little less clear, but I feel just as certain victory would have Microsoft include HD-DVD with the Elite model.


why would microsoft care? They came out with a cheaper console, have a lot more market share (and better games) for now, and since hd-dvd has lost I bet they will come out with a blue-ray add-on for the xbox before the end of the year. Sony bet everything on blue-ray, MS just stood on the sidelines and focused on the console and games, without caring too much about the blue-ray/hd-dvd angle, knowing that no matter who won they could come out with an external player without risking being on the losing side.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (5, Insightful)

timeOday (582209) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939216)

Which reminds me, Sony execs must be popping corks and slapping high-fives about now for their decision to build Blu-Ray into the PS3. I still happen to believe putting Blu-Ray into the PS3 was a purely strategic move that hurt PS3 customers by delaying shipment and jacking up the price, but if PS3 sales (though diminished) are what put Blu-Ray over the top, it doesn't really matter, does it? Big bonuses all around for root-kitting, format-pushing, technology-bundling Sony. This victory will make them a stronger company and increase their power to set technology standards, which given their close ties to content producers (they are content producers) is bound to be good for everybody but the customer. I hate it when the bad guys go long and win big.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1)

YesIAmAScript (886271) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939342)

Delaying 360 to wait for HD-DVD to be cost-viable would have been a mistake. 360 debuted about 6 months before the first HD-DVD players were available at any cost.

Instead of making HD-DVD a winner, it easily could have made 360 a loser.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1, Insightful)

ergo98 (9391) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938706)

There are some 10-15 million rabid Sony hating Xbox/Microsoft fans in the US. They will support any 'not Sony format' with a fanatical commitment that is easily mistaken for broad consumer support.

You have got to be kidding.

Blu-ray is alive today only because a punch of pimply-faced teens got a PS3 for Christmas, and suddenly believed that they had to defend all things Sony, including the blu-ray format that they happened into by chance. The rabid, frothing pro-blu-ray hordes are a frightening sight to all, flooding the message boards with "YEAH! SUCKZORZ ON THAT PARAMOUNT!"

While Blu-ray has some technical advantages, its adoption is a massive loss for the average consumers.

Not only are users going to get fucked on the price of hardware (that is for those of us who don't want a media player in the form of game machine. When people actually intentionally buy a next generation media player, they overwhelmingly chose HD-DVD), but forget about combo discs on blu-ray. Yeah, you know that new movie -- guess you're buying it twice if you want it in both high def and able to run on the vehicle's DVD player and the old computer in the kids room. That's a part of the glorious scam of blu-ray.

Adaptive encryption...yeah, expect divx like lock-downs and timed rentals soon enough with blu-ray. It's commming....

Sony trojan horsed the PS3 into households, and then furthered their campaign by selective buyouts (I marvel that anyone believes that Warner wasn't paid off. Wait a couple of months kids, and the details will come out). Now they get to enjoy the lucre as consumers are screwed into buying hardware and software that is much more expensive than the technically equivalent, more standardized and more solidified competitor.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (5, Insightful)

beoba (867477) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938774)

I like the part where you complain about fanboyism, and then immediately start going into wild speculation about "divx-like lockdowns and timed rentals", then follow that up with complaints of "selective buyouts" that both sides were doing.

Frankly, I'm just glad the whole thing's over, so that hopefully the burners will start getting more common/cheaper.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1)

ergo98 (9391) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938792)

I like the part where you complain about fanboyism, and then immediately start going into wild speculation about "divx-like lockdowns and timed rentals", then follow that up with complaints of "selective buyouts" that both sides were doing.

I'm not against blu-ray because I grabbed a flag and started waving it, declaring my allegiance. I'm against blu-ray because I think it amounts to a massive tax on consumers. I truly believe that HD-DVD was generally a better win for consumers.

That isn't fanboyism at all, and I didn't stumble upon the format.

And yes, blu-ray's adaptive, updateable encryption system is open ended on purpose. Blu-ray already has a pretty onerous system, so let's see what happens once HD-DVD is out of the way.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (2, Insightful)

beoba (867477) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938834)

Unlike taxes, buying Spiderman 3 is not obligatory, so I'm failing to see your point. Care to specify what makes you consider HD-DVD to be a "better win", or are you going to continue sticking to PR-speak?

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (5, Insightful)

ergo98 (9391) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938860)

Unlike taxes, buying Spiderman 3 is not obligatory, so I'm failing to see your point.

Buying a Big Mac isn't obligatory, but when I do I pay tax on it. It still is tax.

Blu-ray comes with a significant price premium -- for both technical and licensing reasons -- over HD-DVD. Add the value of combo discs that you can get for HD-DVD, but not Blu-ray, and the average household either has to upgrade wholesale at once (have fun getting a blu-ray player for the SUV), or buy all media twice.

Blu-ray is a much more expensive proposition for exactly the same end result.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1)

Baumi (148744) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938974)

Add the value of combo discs that you can get for HD-DVD, but not Blu-ray, and the average household either has to upgrade wholesale at once (have fun getting a blu-ray player for the SUV), or buy all media twice.
Wow, so the average US household has an SUV with a DVD player?

Jens

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (4, Insightful)

kilgortrout (674919) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939198)

Nobody has to buy anything. And most US households will not be buying either blu-ray or hd-dvd. They'll be sticking with plain old dvd for the foreseeable future. People aren't holding back because of perceived format wars. They're holding back because there's not much value for the consumer in HD anything over what's available today.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1)

Erpo (237853) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939330)

I truly believe that HD-DVD was generally a better win for consumers.

Why is that?

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1)

His Shadow (689816) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939030)

I like the part where he doesn't think any format backed by Microsoft won't by default have a plethora of anti-consumer "features".

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21938912)

Wow, both of you are morons. Seriously. You both need to drop the fanboyism because you're basically walking stereotypes.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21938934)

Shouldn't you be in bed?

When someone has an argument that has some foundation in fact, calling it fanboyism just proves you to be an imbecile. Not that there was much uncertainty about that.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21938926)

If you are trying to sell a product that is competing a Sony product right now you will automatically get:

# A receptive audience in the US that is most comprised of Microsoft fans that are Xbox owners and or Windows PC gamers

# A core group of fanatics for your product that are willing to sit around in Net discussion boards 24/7/365 days a year hyping your product and trashing the Sony one

# Free marketing from sites like Slashdot and the endless Zonk anti-Sony/BluRay stories

# A wealth of bogus technical data and specs that 'prove' your product is superior to the Sony one

# A group of people who are willing to spend a huge amount of money in a short amount of time on your product and then go out on the Net and brag about attach rates and 'fastest selling' vs the Sony product

So if you are a company like Toshiba looking at early sales figures and reception to your product you can easily mistake this enthusiasm for your product for what it really is hatred of Sony. The same thing happened to Microsoft and the Xbox and once again with the 360. Dead in most of the world markets and surviving almost entirely on a core US anti-Sony group of consumers.

Toshiba is lucky HD-DVD got killed off this quick and most likely only has lost in the hundreds of millions. Microsoft is some 7 billion in the hole on the six year long Xbox marketplace disaster.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (2, Insightful)

Baumi (148744) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939092)

Blu-ray is alive today only because a punch of pimply-faced teens got a PS3 for Christmas, and suddenly believed that they had to defend all things Sony, including the blu-ray format that they happened into by chance.
While I own neither a PS3 nor an XBox 360, I find it funny, how the PS3 is usually getting slammed for being too expensive, having no cool exclusive titles and generally not seilling well - however as soon as we're talking about BluRay, it's suddenly supposed to be this Juggernaut driving out the other HD format. Could all the fanboys please decide whether they want to bah it for being a failure or for being too successful?

Adaptive encryption...yeah, expect divx like lock-downs and timed rentals soon enough with blu-ray.
Rentals are always timed in some way or other - that's what makes them different from buying. Actually, timed rentals are IMHO pretty much the only valid use for DRM. (Especially when I can download them instead of having to go to ta store or wait for a DVD in the mail.)

Sony trojan horsed the PS3 into households
So it goes like this:
1. Add Blu-Ray to console
2. Be a year late to market, more expensive than competition, and overall the worst selling console
3. ???
4. Dominate the HD market!

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1, Flamebait)

Daniel Phillips (238627) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939224)

So it goes like this:
1. Add Blu-Ray to console
2. Be a year late to market, more expensive than competition, and overall the worst selling console
3. ???
4. Dominate the HD market!
A nice summary, but your ??? is in the wrong place, it is really more like:

1. Add Blu-Ray to console
2. Be a year late to market, more expensive than competition, and overall the worst selling console (but still sell millions)
3. Dominate the HD market!
4. ???

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (2, Insightful)

Hal_Porter (817932) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939286)

yeah, expect divx like lock-downs and timed rentals soon enough with blu-ray.
What's wrong with DIVX [wikipedia.org] style lockdowns btw? It seems like there's a market for it.

E.g. Netflix could send out disks which would become unplayable at the end of the rental period so you wouldn't need to return them. As far as I can tell the costs of producing a disk is negligable for DVD and CD and will probably become so for BlueRay and HDVD. So most of the cost is essentially an IP rights license. That implies that you could sell limited duration licenses to people for less than the perpetual one they normally get with a pressed disk.

Actually you could even imagine some sort of equivalent of Flexi singles - i.e. the disk would be manufactured to last for a short period for straight mechanical reasons. Maybe a biodegradeable disk so you can compost it when it expires. I can imagine you'd have a shelf of very cheap time limited movies (a dollar or so) at eye level near the checkouts in supermarkets. Basically the Top 10 best selling DVDs in a disposable format, designed to attract impulse buyers who only want to watch them once.

And it would be up to you whether you bought them/picked them up - I think there will always be a market for pressed disks that don't expire. In fact DIVX shows that maybe that is 100% of the market for DVDs - i.e. people won't buy things with an expiry date, regardless of cost. Mind you, you could make them wholly ad supported and bundle them with newspapers. In the UK newspapers often give away audio CDs - they pay a very small fee to the IP owner for the rights to do it. If you could convince the IP owners that they're giving away only a short license period, maybe you could give away DVDs instead.

But why worry about it? If there is market for time limited movies then you're free to ignore them. And if there isn't a market for them it isn't an issue. And it's odd that the same people who complain that 'the MAFIAA' should be innovating new delivery models rather than litigating tend to complain about things like DIVX, which is an example of them doing exactly that.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (2, Insightful)

Bill, Shooter of Bul (629286) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938766)

There are some 10-15 million rabid Sony hating Xbox/Microsoft fans in the US. They will support any 'not Sony format' with a fanatical commitment

If true, that is by far one of the most alarming statistics I have ever read. If large cooperations marketing has succeeded to the point that there are 10 million people that will not buy a company's product regardless of its technical merits and price point, we've reached a truly low point in society.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1, Insightful)

moosesocks (264553) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938872)

Consumers play a very small role in this "battle"

What it comes down to is which format studios and hardware companies are most comfortable supporting. For both, I'd have to say that HD-DVD comes out on top.

Studios have very strong reasons to be weary of Sony, considering that Sony has an appalling track record of refusing to play nicely with others, and also owns a movie studio themselves. Likewise, they've got their own reputations to worry about, should Sony pull another stunt, like the rootkit fiasco. Also, look at what happened to BetaMax.

Hardware vendors also have a bit to be concerned about. Although Blu-Ray has a small technical advantage over HD-DVD (the disc holds more), the players and discs are much more expensive to produce, and royalties are higher (and paid to Sony, who is in direct competition with other vendors). This translates to smaller profit margins, and a higher price at retail (both of which are bad, if your competitor can profitably sell what is essentially the same product for 2/3 the price). Once again, sony also doesn't tend to embrace standards (even their own!), and has a reputation of not playing nicely with others. Also, look at what happened to BetaMax.

Toshiba is a rather generic consumer electronics manufacturer, whereas Sony tends to be rather high-profile (and accordingly, high-risk).

Sony has a track record, and it's absolutely appalling. Even with all the marketing and buzz, studios and hardware vendors should know better than to trust them... this is where Toshiba put their money.

Unfortunately, it seems that Sony's been practicing a bit of payola, which is something that Toshiba hadn't considered, and something that Sony's *very* good at.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21938954)

Wow, and there is one of those bitter losers the OP was talking about...

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1)

nolesrule (152898) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939132)

Toshiba did their share of payola as well. They just weren't as successful.

That said, Blu-ray was a multi-corporation project, of which Sony was just a part. Most of the major CE manufacturers were involved from the start.

Re:Toshiba Fell Victim To The Xbox Demographic (1)

Divebus (860563) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939140)

Microsoft announced they were discontinuing support for "HD-DVD For Sure" in favor of their new media player, the Zoob Toob.

Sony formats always take an early lead (1)

symbolset (646467) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939320)

And then they exploit their market leverage for licensing dollars. The pendulum swings and the end is always the same.

porn is blue ray is it not? (3, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21938638)

..the death of HD-DVD right there.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not? (4, Funny)

JustShootMe (122551) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938650)

Red light, blue ray.

Just don't use a blacklight, you'll never know what you'll find.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not? (2, Informative)

pionzypher (886253) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938712)

Insightful? Someone wasn't paying attention [arstechnica.com] and got it slightly backwards. Of course that wasn't exactly true either as there are apparently some titles out and more coming.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not? (3, Informative)

hords (619030) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938758)

Now Digital Playground is releasing their titles on HD-DVD and Blu-ray. [afterdawn.com] No longer exclusive like the were.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not? (1)

Vampyre_Dark (630787) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938794)

Yeah, insightful. That story is outdated. Porn is on blue-Ray now. Most notably, Pirates. http://www.piratesxxx.com/ [piratesxxx.com] (hopefully that link will go through.) Obviously, NSFW

Re:porn is blue ray is it not? (1, Insightful)

DrEldarion (114072) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938798)

Offline porn doesn't matter anymore. Everyone gets their porn on the internet nowadays for much cheaper. They'd rather pay $20 for a one-month pass to a site that has thousands of movies than $20 for one disc.

People still pay for porn sites? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21939228)

I thought most net wankers would go to a site like Cheggit [cheggit.net] and get all the porn you can shake a dick at for free.

Re:porn is blue ray is it not? (0)

Swampash (1131503) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938910)

Mod parent up. Whichever format or delivery system is supported by the adult entertainment industry is the one that wins. See "VHS". Hell, see "Internet".

Re:porn is blue ray is it not? (-1)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21939142)

How can ypu mod him up being WRONG? Most of the porn industry backed HD-DVD.

Toshiba (3, Insightful)

Moonpie Madness (764217) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938658)

The DVD forum has been a bit of a bully, and while Toshiba made more then ten billion dollars through their involvement, I think a lot of companies are ready to try something else.

Blu-ray isn't the end of the world for them, as Japanese businesses are kinda incestuous and Toshiba has its own set of investments. Toshiba will make plenty of money, just not as much as they did last round.

I'm curious how Paramount deals with this. Does their contract (with MS or Toshiba) have an escape clause?

Anyway, HD DVD is done. Toshi can't be overtly honest about it until they get rid of some inventory. I saw a couple of people returning their HD DVD players, presumably from Christmas, to Target tonight. Are these people picking up PS3s? Probably some are. It's not like HD DVD owners should toss their systems, and I actually think they might be in for a pleasant round of super cheap movies and spare players.

And the Xbox 360 might even be helped by this. Think about it, the XBOX is not quiet enough to play a disc movie, at least for a lot of people. But it's just fine for downloads. Microsoft may ramp up and accelerate their download service now that this war is ending, instead of gaming each company against eachother like fools to slow adoption. Ps2 owners are slow adopted, but in my opinion 360 owners are fast adopters, and the console is more internet oriented. These people are much more likely to download movies, and I think the 360 is going to continue to do very well.

Warner did the right thing, and I'm confident there will be much more progress in HD movies. I think these films look much better than DVD, and while DVDs were much more of a revolution in technology, Blu-ray is a real step up that downloads cannot hope to compete with in the US.

We all knew this was going to end, and most of us realized bluray was going to win out. Warner had no leverage to end Blu-ray, so they used their power very effectively. And may have been planning this out. I expect to see Warner's movies all over Microsoft's system. I bet this was well known to MS, and the announcement the two companies have planned has to do with the 360's downloads.

In short, this is going to work out fine for everybody.

Re:Toshiba (0, Flamebait)

ChronosWS (706209) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938854)

What's interesting to my mind though was that the quality of movies for Blu-Ray was so inferior. When we went to get our next-gen equipment, we surveyed the movie landscape. To this day, BluRay still has fewer good movies for it than Blu Ray. We tried to buy every movie of interest, and HD DVD had at least 4:1 ratio of quality flicks.

Since I already own both players, I guess I am technically format-agnostic. I would rather have had the region-less, less DRM-crippled format win, but as we all know this is not to be for our generation.

Re:Toshiba (1)

DrEldarion (114072) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939290)

To this day, BluRay still has fewer good movies for it than Blu Ray.
Seriously! If you guys thought the HD-DVD VS Blu-Ray wars were bad, just wait for the BluRay VS Blu Ray wars.

Re:Toshiba (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21939184)

In short, this is going to work out fine for everybody in Region A.

Re:Toshiba (1, Informative)

G-funk (22712) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939208)

In short, this is going to work out fine for everybody. You know, except for the whole region codes thing.

Re:Toshiba (1)

Osty (16825) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939278)

And the Xbox 360 might even be helped by this. Think about it, the XBOX is not quiet enough to play a disc movie, at least for a lot of people. But it's just fine for downloads. Microsoft may ramp up and accelerate their download service now that this war is ending, instead of gaming each company against eachother like fools to slow adoption. Ps2 owners are slow adopted, but in my opinion 360 owners are fast adopters, and the console is more internet oriented. These people are much more likely to download movies, and I think the 360 is going to continue to do very well.

I firmly believe that online distribution of HD content is the way of the future, and disk formats are mostly dead except as a medium for games (even then, expect to see more and more games selling through downloadable markets like Steam, PSN, and Xbox Live). Thus far I've held off on buying any HD disk format player, and currently get my HD movie fix from Xbox Live Marketplace. If HD-DVD does die, I think your prediction is correct and we'll see more and more content move to places like Xbox Live Marketplace, which is good for me.

If this plays out as I suspect, Sony's going to be pissed because just as they finally "win" a media format war (they lost out with Betamax, Minidisc, Memory Stick, and UMD) content moves away from physical media into online distribution. Sony hasn't put anything beyond trailers up on PSN, and I question whether or not they have the experience necessary to "win" in that arena (as with networked gameplay, Microsoft's Xbox Live has a huge jump on PSN and generally executes much better with a more coherent experience, December's issues not withstanding). Sony might "win" with Blu-Ray, but they're going to have to really scramble to get into online distribution.

blueray hd dvd? (3, Insightful)

timmarhy (659436) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938666)

correct me if i'm wrong but isn't blue ray (i refuse to go with the stupid spelling fad) better on a technical level anyway?

Re:blueray hd dvd? (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21938726)

That may be, but Bluray is pretty disastrous on a green level. HD DVD can use existing DVD factories, but a whole new factory has to be built for BluRay. I think I'll be putting off buying a player for as long as possible - DVD is just fine for me on the desktop.

Is that really true? (3, Insightful)

zippthorne (748122) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938890)

I know they keep saying that, but aren't BluRay disks still essentially 12 cm polycarbonate disks with a reflective layer and a pitted layer?

Is the process really so different that it's easier to build an entire new plant rather than retool an existing DVD plant?

Harder than HD-DVD I can understand, but assuming BRD has won the format war (especially depressing as consumers haven't really had a say yet), I find it hard to believe DVD plants will basically be gutted and replaced as they phase out and BRD phases in.

Re:blueray hd dvd? (1)

jaxtherat (1165473) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938776)

Yes, ever so slightly. BUT, it costs more to manufacture, more for the drives, and it natively supports region locking and other consumer nightmares.

Plus, the storage capacity of HD-DVD (the other thing commonly touted as it's inferiority) is more than plenty for 1K HD content, and we're a REALLY long way away from (vaguely) affordable 2K+ HD capable TV's and Projectors...

You go pick which is more important to you.

Cheaper already, and you forget about Deep Color.. (5, Insightful)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938900)

Yes, ever so slightly. BUT, it costs more to manufacture

Since many millions more discs have been pressed in Blu-Ray (thanks to PS3 games) the production costs have dropped substantially. And the consumer only sees movie prices which have remained identical between the two formats.

more for the drives

Sony just announced a $200 PC BD-ROM. How much are HD-DVD ROM's again? Scale shows advantage once again.

and it natively supports region locking and other consumer nightmares.

Most titles do not use the region controls, and there are fewer regions than DVD had - which means greater, not lesser, consumer acceptance of the format on region bounds.

Plus, the storage capacity of HD-DVD (the other thing commonly touted as it's inferiority) is more than plenty for 1K HD content,

Not if you also want lossless audio, or have a longer movie with a lot of detail. Then you have to make sacrifices. You've also forgotten that this is the year some systems will start to support Deep Color in HDMI 1.3, and we'll start to see movies support that as well. A greater bit-depth for color requires more space.

You go pick which is more important to you.

As an engineer it has always seemed pretty obvious to me.

Re:Cheaper already, and you forget about Deep Colo (1)

jaxtherat (1165473) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938984)

Most titles do not use the region controls, and there are fewer regions than DVD had - which means greater, not lesser, consumer acceptance of the format on region bounds.
That's fine, but in my experience (I buy a lot of European DVD's as I speak several languages) there was a lot of stuff on DVD that was released in one region, and one region only due to lack of demand, and was region-locked it was low budget, and had to obey a draconian publishing contract or risk rejection.

I certainly hope that what you say (and respond to the next guy) is true, but I'm taking it all with a bucket of salt as this is Sony and movie studios we're talking about...

I got Blade Runner 5 disc set for $28 (1)

YesIAmAScript (886271) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939206)

5 BluRay discs for $28. So I don't think media cost is much of an issue.

Besides, a dual-layer BD costs less than $2 to make, and a single-layer BD is always an option, storing 25GB, which is almost as much as a dual-layer HD-DVD and cheaper to make too.

Re:blueray hd dvd? (2, Insightful)

T-Bone_142 (917711) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938778)

From a technical stand point blu-ray is slightly better then HD-DVD, however HD-DVD's are region free. Either way i wont be buying any discs using either of the new formats any time soon. For me DVDs are good enough and i rip all everything to my had drive anyways.

Most Blu-Ray discs region free (1)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938848)

Most non time-crucial movies (read: movies not yet released in the UK) are region free on Blu-Ray as well. The few UK BBC series I could find on Blu-ray currently were also region free. Yes the players support regions, but many fewer than DVD had and in fact we are happily in the same region as Japan which means a lot of Anime fans if they do impose some region coding.

It's more widely understood by studios that region coding is not as good for sales, they only use it for regional control now. I had also read early on that after a year Blu-Ray titles were supposed to go region free, which would make sense- but I can no longer find a reference to that, so take that thought with a grain of salt.

Re:blueray hd dvd? (5, Insightful)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21938816)

I work for a museum, and part of my job is to store photographs and news stories from the present day in a safe archive for potential reference in the future. For now, both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are a long way away from attracting our attention as potential archival storage mediums, but all the same I've been concerned by news that Blu-Ray's data layer is on the under-side of the disc, completely exposed save for a lacquer-like coating of some type. That's different from HD-DVD, which follows the DVD in having the data layer actually sandwiched in the middle of the disc between the plastic top and bottom halves. If that's the case, I wonder if Blu-Ray isn't just another small step towards a throw-away future. The pessimist in me also wonders if there isn't an intentional disinterest in protecting that data layer better, because of course if it degrades over time that just means that, in the case of a movie or video game, the owner is just going to have a buy another copy after some period of time. That's just speculation on my part of course, and the media hasn't been around long enough for any meaningful real-world testing to be done (so far as I know). All the same, I can't see Sony and friends really viewing that possibility as a downside, can you?

Re:blueray hd dvd? (4, Informative)

DrEldarion (114072) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939344)

That makes HD-DVDs as scratchable as regular DVDs (read: very).

From what I hear, that coating on Blu-ray is very good [highdefdigest.com] .

Re:blueray hd dvd? (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21939112)

It has a few technical advantages (more GB per layer is the big one), but Blu-ray has only one thing that the movie distributors care about - an extra level of DRM.

Both HD-DVD and Blu-Ray use AACS encryption, which has been cracked. HD-DVD only has this DRM, so the format is compromised from now until the end of it's life. Blu-Ray on the other hand has an additional optional layer of DRM, BD+, which has not been cracked yet.*

The rabid, paranoid executives at BIG MOVIE COMPANY are always going to demand that it be difficult to copy their movies, so it's no surprise they are going to the format that makes it harder to do so.

*note, AnyDVD can circumvent BD+ now, but not completely. The latest version can copy a BD+ enabled disk to a harddrive, where it can only be played back using PowerDVD. Still no copying to recordable discs or transcoding or anything useful, unfortunately.

Re:blueray hd dvd? (1)

Cinnaman (954100) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939116)

Yeah 10 extra GB per layer.

Re:blueray hd dvd? (2, Informative)

Divebus (860563) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939300)

correct me if i'm wrong but isn't blue ray (i refuse to go with the stupid spelling fad)...

OK, I'll correct you. It's actually spelled Blu-ray [blu-ray.com] and it's not a fad. Stupid yes, but not a fad.

Nice targeted advertising! (1)

StickInTheMud94 (1127619) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938672)

My favorite part of this discussion thread was the "The Future is Blue" Ad that came with it. Very nice targeted advertising pointing at http://www.blu-raydisc.com/ [blu-raydisc.com]

They are both Laserdisc 2.0 anyway (2, Insightful)

grapeape (137008) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938748)

Wait for CableLabs, Phillips, Comcast, MS and others to announce the future of Tru2way (formerly known as Opencable) at CES this week. Then the war can begin anew. Tru2way is MS's inroad to the US cable systems and will allow their IPTV to be brought stateside, their launch with British Telecom is scheduled for this week as well. All the major cable providers are onboard including Time Warner. This all may just be playing into MS hands after all.

And when does that take off (2, Insightful)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938994)

A war fought over cable lines is like Hannibal crossing the alps with elephants. What horrible ground to hold in a pulverizing HD media war.

I mean, another Microsoft cable box attempt? Are they going to give everyone a Surface table for a penny?

consumers lose (1, Troll)

thanksforthecrabs (1037698) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938796)

Cheaper...no region coding...HD DVD was the better product...Sony simply bought the support of corps...not earned it from consumers...

consumers win (1)

deek (22697) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938914)

And at the same time, Blu-ray is faster, has more capacity, and all video releases have to be region free a year from initial release. Price will come down more after time. The only problem is that I don't trust Sony.

HD-DVD was never cheaper (1)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938922)

HD-DVD movies always cost the same for consumers as Blu-Ray, except when you had combo discs - you payed $5 more for a disc you might have had to boil to play. Fantastic. I never understood the "cheaper" argument at all, t makes no sense even if you factor in the player cost (since player costs are one time and you'll likely watch many hundreds of movies over it's lifespan). It's a recurring theme that HD-DVD people bring up though as if it mattered.

Re:HD-DVD was never cheaper (1)

edwdig (47888) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939088)

The cost factor of Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD wasn't really on the consumer end. It's on the manufacturing end. Blu-Ray discs can't be made with the existing DVD making equipment. You need to buy all new equipment and replace your manufacturing plants. HD-DVD discs just require a relatively inexpensive upgrade to the DVD equipment.

Some of the movie studios didn't want to make the investment for Blu-Ray, hence the creation of HD-DVD.

Sony wins this war by getting enough Blu-Ray manufacturing plants built before HD-DVD gets a large userbase. HD-DVD wins if it can build a large userbase quickly.

I am not a manufacturer. Are you? (1)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939222)

The cost factor of Blu-Ray vs HD-DVD wasn't really on the consumer end. It's on the manufacturing end.

So then as neither of us are manufacturers, who cares? Since that cost was hidden in the absolute sense to us, why not in fact even prefer the retailer who has lower margins? In the end the costs go down to equivalence, and the margins may stay somewhat lower to entice people away from DVD.

Some of the movie studios didn't want to make the investment for Blu-Ray, hence the creation of HD-DVD.

Ha Ha ha! You mean Toshiba wanted the majority of royalties from HD discs just like DVD and managed to club Universal (and eventually Paramount) into joining the mad scheme. Never pull a war carriage with just one horse, I say.

HD-DVD wins if it can build a large userbase quickly.

It lost the entire year in sales. Last month in the time where player prices were at the cheapest for HD-DVD, Blu-Ray standalone sales (leaving out the PS3 which is insane all by itself but I'll grant that concession) were greater than HD-DVD - to the extent that even Toshiba's own figures for YTD player marketshare [engadget.com] (scroll about midway down, look for the pie chart) showed Blu-Ray players with a lead for the year whereas just months prior the situation was reversed! Not only did Blu-Ray player sales pick up, they went at such a clip as to *catch* up.

Re:HD-DVD was never cheaper (1)

Jeff DeMaagd (2015) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939098)

Come on, the "boiling" thing was just an early problem, if it really was a problem. Even as a Blu-Ray fan, it's a silly statement to bring up.

The initial cost of the player IS a concern, a lot of people didn't think that the additional $200 to buy a player meant anything.

Re:consumers lose (1)

dasunt (249686) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939100)

Isn't HD-DVD a standard?

As opposed to Blue-Ray, which is still evolving?

From whence comes salvation? All is quiet. (3, Insightful)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938812)

Form both the Toshiba and Microsoft CES keynotes, not a peep of any news that would have helped HD-DVD much even before Warner took out the wind from their sales and the water they were sailing on. Toshiba hardly mentioned HD-DVD at all (focusing on LCD TV's) and Microsoft didn't mention HD-DVD once! What exactly is the magical force that will keep HD-DVD going past this point - with the media generally declaring HD-DVD dead the consumers will believe that as well, and start not buying HD-DVD products and media in droves. There's already a hint Target is dropping HD-DVD (slipped out by a Phillips executive during a CES keynote [engadget.com] ).

Paramount and Universal will be doubly screwed now until they come to Blu-Ray - no-one will buy HD-DVD titles in any numbers to speak of, and lots of people may shy away from any SD DVD's until those studios move to Blu-Ray and produce an HD title to buy. I know I had stopped buying DVD's for over a year now, thinking that anything I liked enough to buy could wait for on HD.

The topic (3, Funny)

eebra82 (907996) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938824)

Toshiba Execs Delay the Death of HD DVD
Fixed that for you.

Pissed off consumers (4, Interesting)

tekrat (242117) | more than 6 years ago | (#21938886)

So, the warranty on some HD-DVD players isn't even over yet, and the format is already being called dead, and there probably won't be any new content released after today.

Nice, so, all the people that spent $$$$ on some HD-DVD player or Xbox attachment are going to be mighty pissed off, as they have once again, fallen into what I call the High-Def money pit, where you have to constantly buy some new gizmo because the holders of the DRM willy nilly decide to change things.

How many TVs were sold as HD-ready, only to not be? How many 720p sets or even 1080i sets still don't have an HDMI connection? And let's not even get into Vista Media Center, or any of the other depricated formats that have lead to technological dead-ends and/or having to re-buy the same media all over again (MLB, anyone?)...

If I had been stupid enough to even join in the HD revolution, I'd be pissed off enough to start suing every company that dropped the ball. I'd start with demanding my money back, and when they refused, I'd start throwing lawyers into the mix.

I can't decide who's going to be marching on corporate america first with torches and pitchforks -- the early-adopters of HD, or those screwed out of TV when we switch to digital in Feb of 2009.

Either way there are going to be some demanding their pound of flesh. I just want to sit back and watch the whole thing -- in regular NTSC of course, because regular TV is good enough when you consider the content available.

TTYL

 

Re:Pissed off consumers (1)

HybridJeff (717521) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939050)

Both formats are irrelevant, its easier and cheaper to just download HD content. Who wants to mess around with discs?

The new HD-DVD meme. Not easy nor cheap. (5, Insightful)

SuperKendall (25149) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939172)

Both formats are irrelevant, its easier and cheaper to just download HD content.

Pay attention everyone, this is the new meme that all the cool HD kids are spreading now in some kind of bizarre "Scorched Earth" strategy meant to destroy both formats, after all Sony must die right?

Well lets think about both your arguments:

1) Easier. To play HD content from a disc I just place a disc in a player, and it's playing. To get HD content online I have to decide to buy it from somewhere (and have an internet connection to my system at the TV). Then I have to wait for it to buffer enough to start watching. And then I have to watch a greatly compressed video/audio experience that makes buying a decent HD set a waste. Or I can go for a torrent, and spend days downloading a full quality mvoie only risking many thousands of dollars in fines if a torrent that I must leave up for days on end is discovered. If I downloaded the content legally and want to share it with a friend I can't do that. If I downloaded it legally I load them a hard drive (!). If I have physical media, I just loan them a disc (unless - sweet irony! I have a BD burner and they have a BD-ROM, in which case I can burn a disc).

How was that easier?

2) Cheaper. Yes free is certainly cheap, though of dubious ethical value. Online downloads? Cheap indeed but either they are (a) very cheap and the media expires shortly, or (b) actually rather expensive for the same non-portable highly compressed content I mentioned before. And in the meantime I can rent Blu-Ray discs from Netflix more cheaply than any online service, and probably get them faster than a torrent and cheaper than legal online HD media.

Unskippable crap... (2, Insightful)

flyingfsck (986395) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939346)

You are forgetting something: If you put a disc in a player, then you have to watch the advertisements, warnings and other crap that you cannot skip or fast forward through. If you download the movie, that crap is either already cut out, or you can skip it very easily on Linux.

Re:The new HD-DVD meme. Not easy nor cheap. (1)

uzibear (816877) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939350)

i still feel that the winner in the war of bluray VS hddvd will be the DVD, or really, it will be downloadable content; i forsee on-demand and other downloadable-everything as the next format, with bluray a mere stopgap, and i don't think it will ever reach mainstream adoption; doesn't mean it won't be nice for the next few years while we get some faster download speeds rolling out

Re:Pissed off consumers (2, Insightful)

aristotle-dude (626586) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939232)

Both formats are irrelevant, its easier and cheaper to just download HD content. Who wants to mess around with discs?
Do you think you could hook me up with your supplier of 100 MBit or faster internet access for really cheap? I don't think people who are buying 1080p TV's and either have no broadband available in their area or only have access to either Cable or DSL broadband are going to be interested in buying huge HDs to store all of the content, settle for heavily compressed 720p content with limited audio track options or wait for hours for the content to download.

Re:Pissed off consumers (1)

MarcoAtWork (28889) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939340)

its easier and cheaper to just download HD content


let's see, the average cable subscriber gets 100 gigs/month, which equals about maybe two-and-a-half movies, and to download one of them, let's say 35 gigs, it would take about 50 hours at 2mbit (about the average speed of a lot of cable customers), hmmm, easier and cheaper? cmon, give me a break, until we all have 100mbit fiber in the house with 5-10 terabytes of cap/month it's not going to happen.

tsunami? (1)

Swampash (1131503) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939004)

At this rate, a better metaphor would have been "rising sea levels".

The ad at top of the screen says the future is blu (1)

jaypaulw (889877) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939028)

fyi

ehe (1)

ActionAL (260721) | more than 6 years ago | (#21939104)

this is revenge for microsoft bribing paramount into converting to hddvd. paramount has transformers and was a mighty blow to bluray, so sony's next move was to take over warner bros. now with most of the studios over on bluray, paramount and hddvd have embarassed themselves. and universal is probably sitting thinking how to dump hddvd as fast as possible now.

So at what point... (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 6 years ago | (#21939248)

...can I buy a Toshiba-branded Blu Ray player?
Or are they seriously going to take their ball and go home?
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