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Hardware Vendors Will Follow Money To Open Source

Zonk posted more than 5 years ago | from the penguins-on-the-move dept.

Software 194

Stony Stevenson writes "Dirk Hohndel, Intel's chief technologist for open source, believes the installed base of Linux-based desktops could potentially double this year, based just on Eee PC sales. Speaking at open source conference Linux.conf.au in Melbourne, Hohndel said commercial pressure will be the incentive for traditionally Windows-centric hardware vendors to begin offering open source drivers and Linux-based systems to their customers. 'Open source has made the most inroads in the server market, where Linux-based servers represent roughly a quarter of the total market. But in other segments, such as mobile phones and desktops where open source hasn't had as much of an impact, vendors were less interested, Hohndel said. Linux penetration of the desktop environment is currently at around 0.8 percent, but Hohndel said consumer behavior is changing this.'"

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Potentially? Come on. (2, Insightful)

pleappleappleap (1182301) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247038)

could potentially double this year
This statement doesn't mean a whole lot. What could potentially happen and what's likely to happen have never exactly been the same thing. I, myself, do believe that this is likely to happen, but saying that it could potentially happen is a cop-out. I could say that an asteroid could potentially hit the Earth this year. I'd be right, but I wouldn't be saying much.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (4, Insightful)

Asic Eng (193332) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247244)

saying that it could potentially happen is a cop-out

He said something different though: "The Eee PC is expected to hit 3 and a half million in 2008. There's a single computer that's going to double this figure this year". It seems the cop-out is in the summary rather than in Hohndel's statement.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (2, Funny)

pleappleappleap (1182301) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247258)

Point taken.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (-1, Flamebait)

Corwn of Amber (802933) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247498)

Yeah, right. An Ee PC in a store? They're only on eBay and more expensive than MacBook Pros, for what's in them. Wake me up when they REALLY cost $200 and they're REALLY available.

You know what? They're a fucking vaporware, a PR move for Asus, NO store anywhere in the world will ever sell a computer that's lighter, more silent, and has better battery life than ALL those $2,000 overpriced turds just beside them.

3500000 Eee PCs in 2008? Why, there are THAT many bloggers who'll get one for "review"?

I want one so bad it hurts.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1)

C_L_Lk (1049846) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247602)

I purchased one here for list price no problem last week - they have them in stock all the time.
http://www.canadacomputers.com/index.php?do=ShowProduct&cmd=pd&pid=016825&cid=896 [canadacomputers.com]

You can find them available in store as well. They have 4 just in this colour in stock in my local store.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1)

Billhead (842510) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247614)

How is this "vaporware" when they are easily available on Newegg and ebay?
Is it "vaporware" just because you can't walk into your local Office Depot/Fry's/Whatever and pick one up?

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1, Informative)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247912)

Yeah, right. An Ee PC in a store? They're only on eBay
I bought mine from a store [memoryexpress.com] and (except for the 8G), they still have them in stock.

They're a fucking vaporware
Funny, for vapour they sure are tangible.

I want one so bad it hurts.
So go buy one.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1)

ericrost (1049312) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248268)

I purchased one for $299 from an Amazon Retailer on Dec 18th. I use it daily.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1)

darrenkw (1085901) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248416)

I bought one for my wife and son to use. My wife is welcome to use my big $2000 machine but she prefers the EEE. I walked into my local computer shop looking for something else and walked out with one also. They had 8 of them sitting there. I know that's not many but it's a small shop and they said they had problems keeping them in stock because of the demand.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1)

tolan-b (230077) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248902)

Several models of the EEE are in Amazon's top 10 best selling notebooks list.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22248936)

www.ncix.com
They have stores you can go in and buy one

Also, there's an asian mall by my place where you can buy them pre-modded and all - I believe they claimed to even offer one with a 64GB SSD (didn't bother asking the price)

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1)

PrescriptionWarning (932687) | more than 5 years ago | (#22249216)

"You know what? They're a fucking vaporware, a PR move for Asus, NO store anywhere in the world will ever sell a computer that's lighter, more silent, and has better battery life than ALL those $2,000 overpriced turds just beside them."

Probably not quite a valid point, the stores who sell laptops I'd imagine they make little money off the laptops and more from accessories anyway. And if accessorization of the iPod can get so huge, why not for the eee also? I bought my eee from Best Buy, online, so I would only have to wonder if they plan to ever sell it in the store... though I doubt they would until they can come preloaded with Vista/XP or something (as if you'd wanna run Vista on it, yeeesh), but you never know, they may decide there's enough potential sales in it as is sometime this year, maybe when the next version of the thing comes out.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22248050)

2008 the year of Linux on the desktop!

Re:Potentially? Come on. (4, Insightful)

betterunixthanunix (980855) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247340)

I am always a bit wary when people talk about usage of some particular system "doubling." Linux usage will undoubtedly increase on the desktop, but doubling? That's a very generous estimate of the situation. I would be happy if it doubled, if only because people would slowly stop assuming that everybody in the world is either a Windows or Mac user. Let's be serious though: it will not double, unless someone big like Dell or HP actually tries marketing their Linux systems. Dell's Linux systems go un-advertised, and therefore unnoticed by anyone who doesn't know what Linux is or why it is worth their time.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1)

mabhatter654 (561290) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248150)

but in this case, eeePC has a really small base, distinct enough to count as it's own non-laptop niche. It's a case where a really cheap OS combine with low-end hardware is something nobody else is selling, and Asus has proven people WANT to buy their combinations...it's not just "cheap".

Re:Potentially? Come on. (3, Interesting)

Lumpy (12016) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248962)

If they offered the EXACT SAME device running Embedded XP it would be far less capable of a machine. I'm a Embedded XP developer and hardware guy, I know it's limitations very well.

asus is winning because they are competing where Microsoft CANT. They cant fit a fully functional OS and app suite in that small of a place that runs that swiftly.
This is where Linux is shining. it's kicking the crap out of the big guys because it's far more scalable. Everyone else is interested in bigger and badder, while Linux and BSD both have sat there making sure it runs fine on tiny spaces.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1)

marcosdumay (620877) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248334)

"it will not double, unless someone big like Dell or HP actually tries marketing their Linux systems."

Is Asus ok, or does it need to be Dell or HP? TFA and TF summary are talking about Eee.

Re:Potentially? Come on. (1, Offtopic)

sm62704 (957197) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247842)

I could say that an asteroid could potentially hit the Earth this year

So lomg as an assteroid [wikipedia.org] doesn't hit me I guess it's ok.

It's here! (1, Funny)

Dread Roberts (1230562) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247046)

ZOMG! This could be the year!

Re:It's here! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247178)

What really is exciting is that Duke Nukem Forever can't be too far behind!

Cool! A new year! (1)

sgant (178166) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247070)

And a new "Linux on the desktop is set to explode this year" comments from various people.

Though they're a little late on this aren't they? It's the end of January...they usually start this talk in the first 1 or 2 weeks of the year. But it's good to see they're consistent.

Also, not trolling here, I really hope Linux does explode and gain market share...it's just I've heard this year after year after year. But I suppose that one year it's actually going to happen.

Re:Cool! A new year! (5, Interesting)

Compholio (770966) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247212)

Also, not trolling here, I really hope Linux does explode and gain market share...it's just I've heard this year after year after year. But I suppose that one year it's actually going to happen.
Personally, I think we're getting really close to a tipping point. The past couple months have been the first time I've had people notice I'm not running Windows on my laptop and look interested rather than disgusted. I then try to remain as calm as possible (getting too excited puts people off) and explain that they can get Ubuntu for free, and even buy computers with it pre-loaded, and all the benefits of using a system built around free software.

Re:Cool! A new year! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247368)

And they will love you for it, until they try to edit their photos with GIMP.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

calebt3 (1098475) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247506)

Unless they bought/pirated Photoshop, they were not likely doing any photo editing in the first place.

Re:Cool! A new year! (2, Funny)

Calinous (985536) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247580)

They were editing with MS Paint

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

s20451 (410424) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247590)

Exactly my point. Here's your shiny new free operating system ... with your downgraded photo software. You say you want to buy the real Photoshop instead? Sorry, can't do that.

Re:Cool! A new year! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22248122)

Actually, as of Wine 0.9.54 Photoshop CS/CS2 reportedly works.
Have not tested it personally, though so YMMV.

PS isn't "upgraded" GIMP either (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22248266)

because you don't NEED Photoshop.

Shit, just because you pirated it doesn't mean it's worth $700.

Re:Cool! A new year! (2, Insightful)

Just Some Guy (3352) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248752)

And they will love you for it, until they try to edit their photos with GIMP.

I think your average user would be better served by other applications [koffice.org] . And for all the times I hear "but they won't have Photoshop", I have to wonder how many people actually use PS in the first place. Outside a handful of graphic designers, no one I know has it installed.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

xSauronx (608805) | more than 5 years ago | (#22249076)

i use picasa for photo-editing under linux. id happily toy around with the Gimp, except....its crap. its certainly not intuitive enough to bother trying out just for personal photo editing, where picasa is simple and thorough.

Ubuntu is a trojan horse (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247626)

1) When Novel starts to publish (fake) profits from the MS Deal for two years, Ubuntu will be the second major distribution to sign the MS Interoperability Agreement. The motto will be "It's what people __want__". Then Ubuntu will give developer resources to Mono (which after 5 years will still be .NET's poor cousin)

2) After many new users are lurred to try ubuntu, it will reveal some major faults that destroy hard disks, etc. Several security vulnerabilities will be exposed before they are announced. People will have a terrible experience with linux, just when Windows 7 will be around the corner. The utter goal is to stop this tipping point for another 3 years.

3) Ubuntu's goal is to slowly kill Debian by taking away its major hackers and leave the others quit from disappointment. That hasn't happened yet.

Just Follow The Money, dude.

Re:Ubuntu is a trojan horse (2, Funny)

MrNemesis (587188) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247772)

You mean all those other devs I meet in IRC with handles like "billgroolz!" and "ballmerrocksmyballs" "jobsisawiener" weren't being sarcastic?!

I did wonder why I saw this chunk of code creep into ubuntu CVS as well;
if [ parttype.sda1 = "NTFS" && parttype.sda2 = "EvilLinuxFilesystem" ]
      sda1.wipedrive
      print "pwned by teh Ballmer!"
      exit

Fortunatele for me, it wasn't written in any exploitable programming language as gcc doesn't understand bad pseudocode. Although I'm sure are writing a patch for it as we speak.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

dave420 (699308) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247942)

Not being rude, but that doesn't mean a thing. Firstly, those are just your experiences, and secondly, it's going to take more than a few people thinking "oh" to actually tip the status-quo of desktoppery we see every day. At most, if what you experienced was repeated en masse, it's a start of the change, not the middle of it.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

Culture20 (968837) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247966)

That's why I carry around extra "official" (silkscreened from Canonical https://shipit.ubuntu.com/ [ubuntu.com] ) Ubuntu CDs in both my coat and laptop bag. Never lose an opportunity to evangelize.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

jcnnghm (538570) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248216)

I would switch to Linux today if I could install on the NVRaid array I use for windows, and configure tri-monitor support using two different graphics cards running three different resolutions in under 3 or 4 hours. The problem I have with trying to use Linux on the desktop is that doing fairly ordinary things requires a substantial time investment, like, for instance, installing a wireless card.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

MrNemesis (587188) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248374)

Achilles' weakness was his heel, but it wasn't his fault.

Similarly, Linux's supposed lack of support for hardware (in reality, it's hardware's lack of support for Linux) is frequently what makes the tasks of which you speak difficult. I'm not saying that Linux couldn't do with alot of polish in regard to making some of the things that are supported easier, but the point of TFA is that there are still some hardware hurdles to overcome with certain manufacturers.

Incidentally, the latest ubuntu made switching between multi-monitor setups a million miles easier (depending on your hardware ;)). It's not perfect but it's light years ahead of what was commonly available less than a year ago. Dock my laptop - I get an extra screen automatically. Undock it - all the windows that were on the secondary monitor shift back to my laptop screen. Plug it into a different monitor and it's automatically detected (assuming correct EDID). One thing I've not done is try and use two different graphics cards at once though, but two screens at different resolutions from the same card is easy IME.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

jcnnghm (538570) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248550)

That's good to hear. I haven't tried in a little over a year, but this is definitely a big deal to me, as previously this configuration was most definitely non-trivial.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

MrNemesis (587188) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248738)

Yup, I remember spending DAYS on getting my much beloved dual-monitor setup working in Gentoo several years ago, and was dreading my shift to Kubuntu for having to go through the process all over again. Thankfully, the nVidia drivers have been rock solid for me and most others for some years now, and the new developments with X.org and xrandr (X.org has positively shot along since the fork from XF86) rendered the whole process quick and painless (easier than windows in fact, IMHO). Fire up nVidia config utility. Click "turn on second monitor". Turn on TwinView. Test. Write settings to xorg.conf. Restart X if you want to use it Right Now.

Non-nvidia cards (like the Intel chipset in my laptop) have the inbuilt ubuntu graphics manager which follows a similar purpose and allows a similar degree of configurability. It detects what screens are connected, their resolution (either native or user-configured), and gives a degree of positional control.

All of the ubuntu xorg detection routines use bus ID's as far as I can tell, so using two different GFX cards that require two different drivers shouldn't be a problem, at least, I hope I'm right. Good luck with it if you decide to give it another shot.

Re:Cool! A new year! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22249050)

Linux's supposed lack of support for hardware (in reality, it's hardware's lack of support for Linux)

On the contrary, it is a lack of support on the side of Linux developers. In order to compete, and finally see the oft-mentioned "year of the Linux desktop", it is up to the developers to put in the effort to make Linux run as well as possible.

Re:Cool! A new year! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22248934)

Yeah, I'm always getting DISGUSTED looks because I'm running a certain OS. You need to start hanging around more normal people!

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

secPM_MS (1081961) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247266)

I am doubtful. The driving force for the extreme feature richness of Vista is almost certainly the hardware vendor's search for new features that will let them sell hardware to customers who already have adequate computers. Those customers who are happy with basic functionality will be happy with their Win 2K and XP boxes. For many people, the Win 98 boxes would remain adequate for browsing, light duty editing, and the like. Providing simple functionality only requires on sale, typically one that was made years ago. The hardware vendors need new feature that gobble RAM, CPU, and disc to sell their hardware. It seems to me that Microsoft is more the follower than the leader here.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

jedidiah (1196) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247664)

The obvious use is a cheap media convergence device.

Make a general purpose PC at about the same pricepoint
as the AppleTV and let the customer load whatever
software they want on it. It will beat the crap out of
network DVD players, be more flexible than the iTV and
be cheaper than the mini.

Make it cheap (like a walmart DVD) so that the consumers
end up spending more on computers than they would if
they had to spend the same money all at once.

An EEE hooked up to every TV and stereo in America and Europe.

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

Drooling Iguana (61479) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247318)

What kind of battery does the Eee use?

Re:Cool! A new year! (3, Insightful)

somersault (912633) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247558)

IMO it's already been happening, even without the Eee PC. Dell and other large vendors (dont Walmart do cheap Linux desktops?) are taking notice and getting on board. Vista is making people aware that they don't have to just use XP, and the fact that it has a lot of incompatibilities, and plain sucks, makes it a better time for people to try out alternatives (or 'evangelise' to their friends, but I cba these days, I'm happy even with little things like Firefox taking off and showing the possibilities of opensource software on the desktop.. in fact I have to point out Firefox next time someone looks incredulously at me when I suggest that they can get a free piece of software like the GIMP to perform a function that they usually pay for..)

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

whychevron (1230194) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248650)

not to be left behind sears gets in to the game , Mirus w/linux 2 models

Re:Cool! A new year! (1)

WK2 (1072560) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247742)

Imagine how bad they would feel if Linux took off on the desktop on the exact same year that the yay-sayers stopped saying "???? is the year of the Linux desktop!"? Come to think of it, that might actually happen. A self-negating prophecy.

Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers (1)

jelle (14827) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247078)

But I guess Intel isn't big in embedded, so they don't care...

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers (2, Insightful)

AoT (107216) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247132)

To be fair, a lot of people don't care about embedded because no one sees the OS in embedded systems. It just isn't as Glamorous as desktops. Not that embedded systems aren't important mind you.

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers (1)

HAKdragon (193605) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247914)

To be fair, a lot of people don't care about embedded because no one sees the OS in embedded systems.

Until your ATM running Windows Embedded crashes.

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers (1)

pleappleappleap (1182301) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247330)

But I guess Intel isn't big in embedded, so they don't care..
Are you kidding? Intel is very big into embedded. Check these out:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intel_8051 [wikipedia.org]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XScale [wikipedia.org]

Re:Linux is bigger in Embedded than in servers (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247508)

Don't look up. You may see something very big going OVER YOU HEAD!

Integration is key (4, Insightful)

TheMeuge (645043) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247084)

While I think he makes sense, I think something else will be a far more important factor in driving Linux and open-source into the mainstream - the integration of technological products based on linux, across multiple platforms. The Google phone concept, if it is realized successfully by multiple companies, will certainly provide much of the impulse needed to push Linux into the consumer mainstream.

Just the ability to sync your mobile phone with a Linux platform (which I assume it will provide) will be a huge boost for Linux on the desktop, when it comes to small and medium business.

Actually, the slashdot "does it run linux" meme is very much appropriate here. If the devices you want run Linux and are compatible with other Linux devices, it only makes sense to adopt an all-Linux home/shop/business, etc...

Re:Integration is key (5, Insightful)

morgan_greywolf (835522) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247322)

Yeah, this might sound wacky to some, but it's actually right on the money. Integration is a key selling point for the desktop leaders, Microsoft's Windows and Apple's OS X. If I walk into CompUSA, Best Buy, or buy something off of NewEgg or whatever, it's pretty much a given that it's going to work with Windows. In addition, if I walk into an Apple store, it's pretty much a given that anything I walk out with will work with the latest version of OS X.

On Linux, we get a bad rap for poor hardware support. It's not really the case. We have good or, in many cases, excellent hardware support for a wide swath of popular hardware. But you have to do the necessary research to know what to buy and what not to buy when it comes to buying hardware for your Linux machine. In the Windows world, you stick with the big names -- they're guaranteed to work. In the Linux world, one scanner model from a vendor might be supported by SANE and another from the same vendor might not be.

A bright, enterprising individual would do well to come up with an online and -- even better -- a brick and mortar store that specializes in selling hardware that works well on Linux. Sure, it's been tried before and failed -- but that was then and this now and Linux has gotten much better support for hardware in recent years.

Re:Integration is key (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247760)

Actually, the slashdot "does it run linux" meme is very much appropriate here. If the devices you want run Linux and are compatible with other Linux devices, it only makes sense to adopt an all-Linux home/shop/business, etc...

Yeah, that's exactly what I was thinking when I was syncing my Palm OS PDA with a Windows 2000 machine.

I think you have it kind of backwards. The ability to sync a non-Linux device with a Linux PC is what would be huge. Think iPod for example. I'm sure there are at least some users* who would switch given that option.

* I really don't want to hear the ravings of lunatics who are going to claim that it would bolster the numbers by a couple of percent. In all honesty I think the idea of having iTunes for Linux is going to sell 50 times more iPods than the number of would-be Linux switchers.

Re:Integration is key (1)

Culture20 (968837) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248008)

Nokia's purchase of Trolltech makes me think Qpe might be seen on a few more devices from Finland too.

Re:Integration is key (1)

SgtChaireBourne (457691) | more than 5 years ago | (#22249036)

We'll have to see. Nokia has a lot of MSFTers where they can cause harm [stewe.org] these days and has even both fought against Ogg and worse signed onto some very nasty contracts to spread MS DRM even on their FOSS systems. The money says go FOSS, but the ideologs infiltrating the company are more concerned about peddling MS than about profit.

Even other big companies like Apple see the profit, it's just the MSFTers and MBA getting their teeny minds in the way.

If you call it a desktop (2, Insightful)

splante (187185) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247154)

That's only if you call the Eee pc a desktop. Don't they even refer to it as a "mobile internet device" or something like that?

I call it a desktop (1)

pleappleappleap (1182301) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247218)

My definition of desktop is any machine I use regularly through its GUI console. Maybe too broad, but it works for me.

Bah! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247420)

My definition of desktop is any machine I use regularly through its GUI console. Maybe too broad, but it works for me.


When I was your age we had line printer ascii images for Pron and flipped toggle switches in octal to input them. That was my console and that's the way we liked it. Now get off my lawn!

Re:I call it a desktop (1)

splante (187185) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248500)

Well, I regularly use my Blackberry through it's GUI console. Heck, I regularly use my Tivo through it's GUI console. I think it's definitely too broad. Give it another go. If a Blackberry isn't a desktop, then clearly something can be designed that will be right on the line between that and an actual desktop. Maybe this is it.

Re:I call it a desktop (1)

alexgieg (948359) | more than 5 years ago | (#22249196)

My definition of desktop is any machine I use regularly through its GUI console. Maybe too broad, but it works for me.
Mine is a little more literal: it's any computer whose natural place, so to speak, is on the "top" of a "desk". If it's designed to be used while being carried around, or anywhere other than the top of a desk, then, and only then, it's not a "desk-top".

Linux Desktops are far beyond his figures (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247196)

I don't where he gets his numbers, but someone needs to let him know the Linux desktop went past 0.8% about 5 years ago.

PENIS PENIS HAHAHAHAHAHA PENIS (-1, Troll)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247198)

My PENIS is HARDware.

My Dixie Wrecked.

Double! (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247200)

the install base of Linux-based desktops could potentially double this year, based just on Eee PC sales
Double?! Wow, that means this really is the year of the Linux desktop!

Yay!!

Horse Bones beaten with sticks (1)

Recovering Hater (833107) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247204)

Lets trot out all the old cliches why don't we?

"Linux just needs some popular commercial games. Then we will see it take off on the home desktop."

Linux is set to take off this year for real this time!

I'm not trying to troll, but honestly, how often do we have to here these same soundbites?

Re:Horse Bones beaten with sticks (-1, Flamebait)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22248058)

I'm not trying to troll, but honestly, how often do we have to here these same soundbites?

At least as often as we have to there them.

Your public education is showing.

Re:Horse Bones beaten with sticks (2, Insightful)

mabhatter654 (561290) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248436)

Actually reality is that NOBODY has commercial games anymore.. Windows has games, but they're not in the numbers XBox or even PS3 as far as sales. Mac gets crumby games and they're growing... why?

The opportunity is open to move laterally into Vista territory. Vista is "better" than XP, but not better "enough" to throw away XP and spend twice as much money on a Vista compatible computer.... since Microsoft spent the entire XP era shooting PC gaming in the foot (with XBOX) the number of people that care about high performance is dwindling... combine that with Intel's "integrated" graphics that again limit gaming or other high end apps and 75% of customers really aren't buying machines much past these low end boxes.

The downside of Vista is that there is really nothing special Vista does, few apps, etc, that do something you can't do on Mac or Linux. (as we've taken gaming off the table and most people don't run "high end apps") Now is the time OEMS will want to move some hardware anyway they can. Due to the price of Vista, the sub $300 market is ripe for linux picking. The very dangerous thing will be when OEMS start selling small systems to do "just one task" very well.. eeePC is the tip of that spear... as they sell them hand over fist, more OEMS will want do do that too.

2000^h1^h2^h3^h4^h5^h6^h7^h8 (4, Funny)

hawks5999 (588198) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247300)

The Year of Linux on the Desktop.

Re:2000^h1^h2^h3^h4^h5^h6^h7^h8 (0)

MetalPhalanx (1044938) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247784)

Wish my mod points didn't expire yesterday.

Keep Typing (1)

wsanders (114993) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248282)

Most organizations of any size are whores to Outlook. Just sayin'. And if you write a big enough check and have fat enough tubes Exchange's massive clustering capabilities more or less work. Just sayin', like that's where the Linux desktop should be concentrating its resources. I'd be glad to be shown the error of my ways

Re:2000^h1^h2^h3^h4^h5^h6^h7^h8 (1)

AceJohnny (253840) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248402)

The Year of Linux on the Desktop.
Desktop's outdated. What we want now is Linux on the smartphone... ...and you know? with Android, that could even happen. Some colleagues are actually working on getting it to work on our chip. Of course, it's just another new contender against Symbian and Windows CE...

Sales != deployment (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247326)

We've never purchased a server that came pre-installed with an OS; using sales figures as a metric for market share is stupid.

There's far more linux machines than any official figures suggest. I'm using a laptop that shipped with WinXP and never even booted into that OS -- and so are the rest of my dept!

Re:Sales != deployment (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22247542)

And on the other hand people also use dual boot and VMs. So deployments on hardware numbers are also skewed. I only run one native Linux machine but I have a few VMs of it.

Re:Sales != deployment (1)

zotz (3951) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248930)

"I'm using a laptop that shipped with WinXP and never even booted into that OS"

Same here.

currently running ubuntu studio on that one.

all the best,

drew

The obligatory Star Trek quote (2, Interesting)

westlake (615356) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247332)

Linux penetration of the desktop environment is currently at around 0.8 percent,

Twice nothing is still nothing.

Re:The obligatory Star Trek quote (1)

toejam13 (958243) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247680)

Agreed.

When you have next to nothing, it is very easy to get something since you have almost nowhere to go other than up. However, statistics can be a funny thing when not put into perspective. If you made a gain of 3000% on your money, that's good. When you started out with only 5 cents, in the big picture, that's not very impressive.

That aside, I don't disagree that Linux could see a 200% gain in the next few years. However, once it has exhausted all of the low-hanging fruit in the operating system market, what's next?

Re:The obligatory Star Trek quote (2, Insightful)

bkr1_2k (237627) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248726)

What's next? A broader support base; in users, vendors, and monetary support across the board. With more support come more advancements under the hood as well as better applications. With more advancements, the gaps in market share will also drop a few percent more over time, possibly more than a few percent. Then the end-user will really have true choice.

Re:The obligatory Star Trek quote (1)

Requiem18th (742389) | more than 5 years ago | (#22249240)

If a kid with only 5 cents in the pockets ends up with 150dls at the end of the day i would call that very impressive.

As it is frequently pointed out in this site... (4, Insightful)

tripmine (1160123) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247366)

He believes the install base of Linux-based desktops could potentially double this year, based just on Eee PC sales..
Double of a small number is still a small number.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site... (1)

InlawBiker (1124825) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247734)

If you double a number every year it eventually becomes very large.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site... (1)

marcosdumay (620877) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248446)

Eventualy, Linux will be installed on 128% of all computers... Then, we win :)

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site... (2, Funny)

BlueParrot (965239) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247754)

Double of a small number is still a small number.


Let X be a small number greater than 0.

A: Under the assumption that double of a small number is a small number we have: Y is small => 2Y is small

B: Thus for all n > 0 we have (2^(n-1)) * X is small => (2^n)X is small

C: Thus by the principle of mathematical induction we have that (2^n) * X is small for all n > 0 and X > 0.

D: However, if X > 0 , then the sequence a(n) = (2^n) * X has no upper bound and is strictly increasing. Hence it diverges towards infinity.

E: So either double of a small number is not necessarily a small number, or all positive numbers are small numbers.

Re:As it is frequently pointed out in this site... (1)

DragonWriter (970822) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248026)

Let X be a small number greater than 0.

A: Under the assumption that double of a small number is a small number we have: Y is small => 2Y is small

B: Thus for all n > 0 we have (2^(n-1)) * X is small => (2^n)X is small

C: Thus by the principle of mathematical induction we have that (2^n) * X is small for all n > 0 and X > 0.

D: However, if X > 0 , then the sequence a(n) = (2^n) * X has no upper bound and is strictly increasing. Hence it diverges towards infinity.

E: So either double of a small number is not necessarily a small number, or all positive numbers are small numbers.


Strictly speaking, E should also include "...or there are no small positive numbers."

After 2006 and 2007 (1)

Britz (170620) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247530)

2008 will be the year of desktop Linux.

2003 was the year of the Linux desktop (1)

sm62704 (957197) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247938)

That was the year I installed Linux on my computer. I don't care what OS anybody else uses.

Godwin's Law in under 40 posts... (1)

hal2814 (725639) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247596)

FTW: Why is this a surprise? BASF followed the money straight into a Holocaust.

Re:Godwin's Law in under 40 posts... (1)

InlawBiker (1124825) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247696)

Indeed, it's been shown that people will follow the money no matter where it goes.

"eee" - a good intro to Linux for the masses (2, Insightful)

InlawBiker (1124825) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247618)

Let's face it, not a lot of people are going to wipe out their Windows and install Linux. But something like the 'eee' is a good platform to put a wedge in the door. Even if it's just a tiny wedge. People will use it without even knowing it's Linux. They will understand that part of the low price is because Windows isn't on the machine.

All they'll know is they can surf and do email, and maybe listen to some music. Next they'll want to know if they can open a spreadsheet or write a document. Eventually they'll say, "Oh, this is Linux. This isn't so bad."

Re:"eee" - a good intro to Linux for the masses (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22248006)

Having just bought one, it is indeed a very tiny wedge. I saw some poor sod on the Tube struggling with his huge Dell desk^H^H^H^Hlaptop today and had to stifle a laugh.

But me buying one isn't taking market share from Microsoft, it's taking it from Apple (since the MacBook Air is made of fail and I abandoned Microsoft a long time ago). You have to wonder about the eeePC figures: How many of the buyers are already using Linux or some other non-Windows OS? How many are using the instructions and drivers provided with the machine and installing their own copy of XP?

Certainly everyone I know with an eeePC falls into the first category which means it's not really a gain in Linux desktop users.

Year of the Linux Desktop (4, Interesting)

ilovegeorgebush (923173) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247698)

I've always thought that phrase was just something lame and idiotic bloggers who want traffic and respect, would say. I mean afterall, it's been said for the last decade or whatever, so I've never taken it seriously.
Now, though, I'm starting to think it might actually have some weight. You've got Dell, Asus and other vendors shipping hardware with Linux on it. Hell, even Tesco here in the UK sell Ubuntu PCs [tesco.com] .

Anything that wipes that smug look off Ballmer's face is good enough for me :)

0.8 percent? (4, Insightful)

sm62704 (957197) | more than 5 years ago | (#22247726)

How do they come up with this figure? Microsoft can count every PC sold with Windows installed plus other licenses sold, Apple can count computers sold, but GNU can be freely given away.

I gave copies of Mandriva to several people last year. None of these copies of that OS is counted as a desktop OS; they are counted as Windows, since they were either added to Windows machines as dual boot or replaced Windows completely.

A lot of GNU desktops MUST be being counted as Windows. Nobody asked ME how many copies of Linux I gave away!

Someone (Clemons?) once said there are three kinds of lies - lies, damned lies, and statistics.

-mcgrew
(don't bother with today's journal)

Re:0.8 percent? (1)

johannesg (664142) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248410)

Simple: they count the number of licenses sold by SCO. Otherwise it wouldn't be legal...

Re:0.8 percent? (1)

Weedlekin (836313) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248636)

"How do they come up with this figure?"

The key is "market share", which is a percentage of units sold over a particular period of time. Note the "sold" part, which all those Slashdotters who get into long arguments about the market share for X being really much higher than the market share of Y should take note of, because they're actually talking about usage figures, which market share doesn't claim to measure.

Re:0.8 percent? (1)

zotz (3951) | more than 5 years ago | (#22249110)

"The key is "market share", which is a percentage of units sold over a particular period of time."

Sure, so I sell you a license for 100,000 units of drew's custom distro. This gives you the right to use my brand icons and super special colour schemes on up to 100,000 copies of the distro of your choice.

And for an unlimited time, this special bonus offer. You can receive absolutely gratis (free for those wondering) the right to make another 100,000 and so on simply by sending me an email telling me you will be doing so.

OK, so should we try this and report all these hundreds of thousands of shipments?

all the best,

drew

Re:0.8 percent? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22248722)

And how may of those copies have never been on the Internet?

Browser report the OS to every webserver you visit, I would guess they base stats mainly on this. Which probably over represents Linux. For an offline PC, the advantages of Linux are less and it can be very difficult to get CDs for all the OSS software you want.

The Distro's often divvy it up that .8% by the number of computers hitting their patch servers. This too should be fairly accurate.

Again? (1)

Udo Schmitz (738216) | more than 5 years ago | (#22248248)

Is it "This is the year of Linux on the desktop"-time of year already? How time flies ...

Re:Again? (1)

shadylookin (1209874) | more than 5 years ago | (#22249072)

I doubt there will ever be "The year for the linux desktop." with each year linux's market share continues to increase. I imagine users will continue to trickle toward linux but i doubt we'll ever see the day when it breaks 50% market share. The article is of course common sense. The problem is: hardware vendors won't support linux because it doesn't have users, and users won't go to linux until it plays their crap, then hardware vendors won't support linux because it doesn't have users, and users won't go to linux until it plays their crap, and hardware vendors won't support linux because it doesn't have users, and users won't go to linux until it plays their crap, and harware vendors...... this is the vicious cycle that linux will need to get out of if it ever wants to be treated like a desktop OS. Granted it's come a long way, but it's still got a long way to go.

Linux fails on mobiles? (0)

Anonymous Coward | more than 5 years ago | (#22248490)

At least on Smartphones, Linux is Symbian's biggest contender.
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