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The debate over climate change is..

American Patent Guy Re:n/t (278 comments)

Yes, I clicked on the wrong link. And, yes, one can produce almost any element with a particle accelerator, and certain elements with a nuclear reactor.

However, as I don't see many people building reactors in their back yards, I don't think your point has any significance. Alchemy is junk science. Not all of the research being done in the global warming community is junk science, but the majority of what is presented for political purposes definitely is. The "involved parties" you refer to are politically motivated and (surprise, surprise) they reach a conclusion in line with those motivations. (Otherwise, they wouldn't release their report.)

Isn't it funny how common sense overrides Chicken Little?

3 days ago
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The debate over climate change is..

American Patent Guy Re:n/t (278 comments)

A room full of alchemists will agree that lead can be turned into gold. That doesn't make it true.

3 days ago
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The debate over climate change is..

American Patent Guy Re:n/t (278 comments)

Oh, you're right. When I said "everyone" I included those with a religious view who claim that this is all God's will (or whatever). I should have included the phrase "in the debate" after the word "everyone" for your benefit.

Oh, and I admire your suggestion that we ignore the evidence of natural climate change as a "distraction" from your preferred conclusion. (I note however your implied admission that it is there.) Curiously, you call my inclusion of such natural changes "denial"...

As for your "massive amounts of evidence": we have reliable evidence back about 30-40 years (accurate temperature readings on a global scale). I could record the air temperature 10,000 times this afternoon, notice that it is rising, and use that to exclaim a trend of warming that will extend into the evening after the Sun has gone down. That is the same kind of "massive" evidence that you would use.

If you're going to argue with me, you should at least present something acceptable in substitution.

3 days ago
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The debate over climate change is..

American Patent Guy Re:n/t (278 comments)

Now, now - you need to do better than that. All you've done is declare to me that the evidence is in there somewhere for me to find.

Mt. Pinatubo erupted in the southern hemisphere in 1991. Why don't I see a corresponding dip in the temperature data (in either of the Hadcrut4 data or the IPCC report)?

If pollution causes cooling, then the warming trend between 1910 and 1943 would have been a cooling trend. Again, there's no correlation between your theory and either the Hadcrut4 data or the IPCC report.

As any advocate would know, when you have a favorable outcome you want to show, you present the evidence most favorable to that outcome. The IPCC is a political body, apparently wanting to show the existence of global warming coincidental to the population growth in the last 100 years. The reason the presentation of the IPCC is so simple is because the "scientific papers" included have been selectively included. You and I both know that there are valid papers from opposing views that are not explained in that report.

We need more than a facial "scientific" demonstration to come to a rational conclusion.

3 days ago
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The debate over climate change is..

American Patent Guy Re:n/t (278 comments)

Well, I don't have the experience with these particular datasets, and I haven't had (and won't have) the time to run through all of this. But looking at what seems the most comprehensive one used on the woodfortrees.org website, I see some problems:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadCRUT4.pdf (this apparently attempts to use historical data from stations around the globe to yield a global average temperature on not less than an annual time frame)

This data shows essentially a flat average global temperature (with a variation of something like 0.2 degrees C RMS) from 1850 to 1910. There is then a sharp annual rise from about 1910 to 1943, and the temperature flattens out until about 1978. The earlier rise essentially continues between 1978 and 2003, and then the temperature flattens out again until the present.

There is obviously some component of this long-term temperature increase in the dataset that is not due to artificial climate change. If the rise in temperature were due solely to the CO2 deposited in the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels, the temperature would not have periods where the increase flattened out; man did not stop burning fossil fuels in 1948 or 2003, rather the CO2 deposition would have increased at more steady rates.

I've argued elsewhere that some of this could be attributed to problems in the sampling/recording of temperature data. But, ignoring that, there isn't a good correlation between the amount of CO2 deposited in the atmosphere at this particular dataset. (Which again may be the most comprehensive one.)

As far as the IPCC report that you refer to (looking briefly at the summary), I don't see described there any contraindications of their conclusions. What appears there is a collection of graphs and other interpretations of evidence that have the appearance of having been cherry-picked to support desired conclusions. It's natural that the authors of the report would prefer to reach conclusions that will support continued funding of their "science". (It wouldn't be the first time that sort of thing has happened.) Indeed, their conclusions are practically absolute; absolute statements generally come from politicians, not scientists.

The IPCC report is very well prepared: whoever did it was expert in the art of presentation. I'll need something more than conclusory statements to be convinced, especially as the evidence that I'm aware of does not support what is claimed in that report and elsewhere by the global warming community.

3 days ago
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The debate over climate change is..

American Patent Guy Re:How to tell if AGW is a real thing... (278 comments)

No, you don't understand him correctly (or you're trying to throw mud on his assertions because you don't like them.) He's saying that what you hear from some sources (such as the mainstream media) is already proven to be not credible. There will always be people who believe what they are told, in spite of the evidence to show that what they are told comes from unreliable sources.

So let's follow your "logical reasoning": there's a lot of worrying about whether global warming is real (it might be or might not be, but who cares?) So, let's find the sources that promote what we want everyone to believe, and bombard the gullible public to the point they have no ability to believe anything else. We won't bother to give reliable proof that what we say is proof, and when/if it's discovered that what we've said is bullshit, then we'll be on to some other scheme to promote our interests. (Your interest might only be in feeling good that your friends believe the same way.) Anyone expressing disagreement will be shouted down with more bullshit, unfair treatment and unfounded prejudice. Hail to Der Fuhrer!

This person's methods of determining validity are not unquestionable, but they are by far better than yours, Coward.

4 days ago
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The debate over climate change is..

American Patent Guy Re:n/t (278 comments)

So you turn to a guy who is writing code and asking for money to give you "good accessible" datasets? Really?

You wouldn't be that guy, would you?

4 days ago
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The debate over climate change is..

American Patent Guy Re:n/t (278 comments)

Settled as to the scientists who voted, maybe. As to the ones who didn't have the time to vote, your "science" remains unsettled.

There is no magical coven of scientists who can reveal the ultimate answer to climate change.

4 days ago
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The debate over climate change is..

American Patent Guy Re:n/t (278 comments)

Your thinking is perfectly correct, except:

1- You add steps to your debate that aren't in debate. Everyone accepts that there is climate change, and everyone accepts that it is due to natural causes (e.g. ice ages).

2- In order for a person to be in denial, he must first be presented with the truth. No one has yet proven that the human-caused climate change is significant: no one knows what it really is because it is very difficult to prove. Reliable science has shown a less than 1 degree rise in average global temperature over the past about 40 years; no one has shown that that rise is caused by human activity. (Although there is plenty of unreliable science to show that our grandchildren will be cooked alive). Recognizing that fear-mongering proves nothing, one is not in denial until there is adequate proof available.

3- No one has yet shown that any "suggested change" will do anything significant. Apart from us all slitting our wrists and letting the planet return to pre-civilization, the best that anyone has shown is a delay in global warming by a few years at best.

I'm sorry: I choose not to be a part of your mass psychosis.

4 days ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

American Patent Guy Re:For The Love of Glob! (551 comments)

Oh, I don't know. Perhaps I can claim an intellectual pursuit of testing the acumen of those who post to Slashdot. Or maybe I do it because I get tired of watching the same old cage-bottom-print-equivalent on cable TV. I think there's an aspect of it that I enjoy in working out the logical flaws and exposing the lack of quality in media sources. Perhaps I have a psychological need to dominate conversations that I get fulfilled.

Or, maybe I enjoy taking my .22 of practicality out and plinking the figurative gophers here that keep popping their heads up ... there's a reason why those silly games at the amusement park are so popular (do you remember "Whack-a-mole"?)

4 days ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

American Patent Guy Re:For The Love of Glob! (551 comments)

I expect you to accept that there are some problems that cannot be solved. Global warming (to whatever extent it exists) is probably one of those problems.

Please don't expect me to become excited/outraged/whatever about this issue. I'm here to judge the case on the merits: give me just the facts, please. (I'm speaking to you in the press who continue to overstate the case for manmade global warming for the obvious purpose of attracting an audience for your advertisers. I'm speaking to you, slate.com and to you *cough* Slashdot *cough*.)

5 days ago
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Mt. Fuji Volcano In 'Critical State' After Quakes

American Patent Guy Re:Frack It (151 comments)

No, it wouldn't be a testcase at all because you'd have no idea whether you had succeeded, or whether natural geology relieved the pressure on its own.

5 days ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

American Patent Guy Re:For The Love of Glob! (551 comments)

Your declaration of the existence of a consensus in part or all of the scientific community and your "high degree of confidence" does nothing to prove the existence of significant global warming to the people who would decide whether anything is to be done. Your words are just as susceptible to criticism as those who deny global warming.

As for me: I doubt whether anything can be done to stop it. If it is man-made, then substantially all of mankind would have to change their ways. There is no global emperor that can decree that everyone stop burning fossil fuels. There is no common consensus that will stop individual countries (such as China) from exploiting available resources. Mankind can't even agree whether it is wrong to kill.

One half of humanity is running up their credit cards, and the other half is consumed with whether there will be enough food for them to eat tomorrow. Very few concern themselves with what some people speculate what might be 50 or 100 years into the future. If the world of Mad Max is coming, then it is coming.

5 days ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

American Patent Guy Re:The real problem is... (551 comments)

From that Wikipedia article, that method has a number of problems:

First, the article suggests that this proxy has a resolution of something like a million years. (Certainly not less than a thousand years.) The data (and I'm looking at the graph in the article) suggests a variation of something on the order of 3-5 degrees F (2-3 degrees C) for periods less than a thousand years (represented in gray). It's hard to say what would cause that variation, whether that is from actual temperature variation or from some geologic phenomenon (does this oxygen diffuse through the calicite?) I'm not ready to use this data to show that a variation of less than one degree (as indicated in the Japanese summary) over the course of about 100 years isn't natural.

Second, the ratio is precipitation-related (the heavier isotopes tend to rain out first): a wet location (one closer to a body of water) will have a higher concentration of the heavier isotopes. Limestone deposits on the wind-facing side of a mountain will have a higher concentration than deposits on the leeward side; a change in isotope ratio could indicate a change in the direction of the prevailing winds in the region of the deposits. Thus the variations seen in the limestone have other potential causes than temperature.

Third, this method doesn't yield a temperature measurement on an absolute scale, but a relative one. (It can't tell you what the global or regional average temperature was for any particular time: it can only indicate a relative change between average temperatures in the region of a deposit and those at more northerly latitudes broadly.)

This is nowhere near a compelling proxy for comparison against modern temperature readings (even if you're only trying to see a difference in the rate of change between ancient and modern temperatures.)

5 days ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

American Patent Guy Re:English. So much fun. (551 comments)

Here's a link for you to look at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G...

If you'll look at the map about 1/3 down the page, you'll see a nice color coding showing stations that have data longer than 100 years (in red) that could possibly have data back to 1891 as the article claims. Those stations are predominantly in Japan and portions of the U.S. Note (from the visual representation requiring almost no linguistic intelligence to interpret) that most of the Earth has no data recorded at all, and well over 95% has no data going back more than 50 years.

Okay: I'll admit that the JMA dataset is more broad than to Japanese lands and territories only (as it apparently includes data from stations in the U.S. and sparsely cities in other countries), but hardly covers the entire Earth back to 1891.

Congratulations. You've just proven me right.

5 days ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

American Patent Guy Re:The real problem is... (551 comments)

Q: And from which of those proxies can one determine the average temperature in the month of June in the year 1891 for an ordinary terrestrial location within one degree F?

A: None of them. They are useless for comparison with the datasets used by the Japanese Meterological Agency.

The composition of the atmosphere does not directly determine the temperature at any location at any particular time.

about a week ago
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Harvesting Energy From Humidity

American Patent Guy How does it compare to a thermocouple (89 comments)

under the same conditions? That's what would really be interesting.

This new device needs a temperature differential and humidity to operate. A thermocouple only needs a temperature differential. The new device won't work anywhere where there isn't a humidity high enough to provide condensation (such as space).

It's a curiosity, but I'm not investing any money in it in the short term...

about a week ago
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Brazil Nut Effect Explains Mystery of the Boulder-Strewn Surfaces of Asteroids

American Patent Guy Re:Summary description is not quite accurate (58 comments)

If a collection of boulders/rocks have the same shape and density (individually), then they will have the same space between them regardless of their size. This is ignoring the conflicts with the walls of your hypothetical box. However, asteroids in space have no walls. Your experiment should not show what you think.

It might be more accurate to say that smaller rocks settle down more readily than larger boulders (in the spaces between), and the effect perceptively "floats" the boulders to the surface.

about a week ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

American Patent Guy Re:The study focuses soley on Japan (551 comments)

I was rebutting your assertions that (1) there was a reliable census taken for each individual country (2) there was a United Nations that could compile such a world census, and (3) that those (fictional) capabilities showed that there were reliable data sets for the Japanese.

And, no, generally there were no censuses taken before 1948 (and even today) for many/most countries of the world. The reason it is done historically in the U.S. is because that's how the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are apportioned (and today for other reasons as well such as for federal funds transferred to the states.)

If you're right and I am wrong, it should be easy to prove with a link. Go right ahead...

about a week ago

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