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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:In other words (1105 comments)

The question was who we should trust climate scientists or historians. Between the two, I'd put my money on the climate scientists, given any reasonable definition of the term.

But of course, if you can find some good research done by a historian about the global temperature record, I'm sure people would be interested.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:In other words (1105 comments)

Modern farmers aren't just planting potatoes. Besides, if you want to make a point that the MWP was warmer than today, the data needs to be calibrated to an actual temperature, and the data needs to be global.

Anecdotes about Viking farming in Greenland provides neither.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:In other words (1105 comments)

Historians better get busy and get their asses back to Greenland, to document modern farming:

"Trees are growing and the fields are full of potatoes, lettuce, carrots and cabbage" to be sold at the local market, explains Anders Iversen, who heads a plant nursery near Qaqotorq in the south.

Temperatures are warmer now, with the mercury sometimes rising above 20 degrees Celsius (68 Fahrenheit) in summer, he says.

"If global warming continues, we will be able to grow even more kinds of vegetables during a longer season," he adds.

http://www.terradaily.com/reports/Global_warming_impacting_Greenlanders_daily_lives_999.html

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:In other words (1105 comments)

Climate scientists, of course.

What historians are you talking about, and did they collect temperature data from all over the globe ?

about 3 years ago
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NASA Successfully Test Fires J-2X Engine.

Arlet Re:10 billion? (119 comments)

How can a single rocket, a tube filled with pork, cost $10 billion? Please explain.

FTFY. Now the answer is obvious.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:In other words (1105 comments)

Back to the beginning: if a majority of scientists agree that the MWP was cooler than today, what would be a valid reason, for non-scientists, to assume the MWP was actually warmer ?

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:Doing more damage than we can reverse. (1105 comments)

Yet, everybody agrees that earth has been cooling down since around 2000.

No, only a couple of crackpots agree on that. Here's a link of global temperature anomalies in tabular format:

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/Fig.A2.txt

Average for 2000-2009 was +0.52
Average for 1990-1999 was +0.31
Average for 1980-1989 was +0.18

Doesn't look like it's getting colder, especially if you consider that every single year since 2000 has been warmer than the 1990-1999 average.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:In other words (1105 comments)

"majority" arguments don't work with science.

It doesn't work within science. It works fine when trying to determine policy based on science. Everything we teach the kids at school is based on scientific consensus. That's why we teach the theory of evolution, even though there are some people that disagree. Even if there's no guarantee that scientific consensus is correct, it's still the best thing we have.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:Some are missing the obvious here... (1105 comments)

Nobody's trying to outlaw CO2. People just want to prevent it from rising too far.

Keeping CO2 below 450 ppm isn't going to harm any plants, when it has been below 350 ppm for hundreds of thousands of years.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:old news (1105 comments)

Imagine you're standing on the beach, and someone's telling you that flood is coming in. You're screaming they are wrong, because the sea has retreated in the last 2 minutes.

Are we clear now?

We are clear that you don't understand how to look at the data, yes.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:In other words (1105 comments)

The CLOUD experiment supports current understanding, by showing that the cosmic ray effect is too small to create actual clouds. So what are you trying to say ?

And what's the alternative to scientific consensus ? Should we determine global policy by Tarot cards ?

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:Doing more damage than we can reverse. (1105 comments)

If 2-sigma events happen on a regular basis, they are unlikely to be a result of chance.

If you make a list of extreme weather events, the number of broken heat records is much bigger than the number of broken cold records.

I agree that people overreact, and start blaming each event on global warming. That's not correct. However, looking at the increase of dozens of extreme weather events, it's fair to say that global warming is a likely factor behind many of them.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:Nothing can ever stop... (1105 comments)

they would drive most of the world into poverty and a brutish existence

The same thing will happen if we just continue to burn fossil fuels. We can't keep producing them at current rate for much longer. The peak oil problem is likely more urgent than global warming, so an aggressive plan for transition would benefit us either way.

we have no idea about what the real benefits/disadvantages we would experience from +450ppm.

Sure, we have plenty of ideas.

But I see your point. Short term benefits outweigh long term doubts. Since, long term, we're all dead anyway, I can't argue with that.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:what will happen: (1105 comments)

That would be interesting to look at. Do you have the data ? I looked around, but haven't been able to find a good graph for global drought frequencies.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:In other words (1105 comments)

Okay, we can play that game - proxy from China:

Strictly regional proxies don't count. Surely you know that.

And your pdf shows in section 2.5 that the Chinese MWP was cooler than today. So what should we make of that ?

And yes, some regions were warmer 1000 years ago, many other regions were not. The solution is to combine all data, and get a global view. Notice for instance, how some of the regional graphs show a peak at 900 AD, while others show a peak at 1100 AD. If you average them, both peaks will get smaller.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:In other words (1105 comments)

Fighting disinformation is not a crime.

Now, if anybody can present real evidence, that would be different.

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:what will happen: (1105 comments)

Or conversely, what observations will falsify your hypothesis that human CO2 emissions will cause more dust bowls?

That's simple enough that you could prevent the rhetoric and just fill in the answer yourself.

Plot a graph for the number of droughts in the next 50 years, and if you don't see any significant increase, CO2 emissions are not a factor.

Now what ?

about 3 years ago
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IEA Warns of Irreversible Climate Change In 5 Years

Arlet Re:old news (1105 comments)

variations or no, the levels should still have risen over the last couple of years

That makes no sense. Ocean level data is very noisy. You cannot expect to see a trend in a small amount of noisy data, even if it's still there.

about 3 years ago

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