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Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates

Bob9113 Re:Does the job still get done? (631 comments)

*Abbott -- I swear I get that wrong every time I type it.

yesterday
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Economists Say Newest AI Technology Destroys More Jobs Than It Creates

Bob9113 Re:Does the job still get done? (631 comments)

If the job still gets done it's a good thing that jobs gets replaced by AI.
The flaw isn't in who does the work, but how the economic system around it is set up.

This is dead on the money. The traditional example is moving shoe manufacturing to China. The model says that if we move shoe manufacturing to lower wage countries, then US GDP will increase. As a result, the average income in the US will increase, even if the shoe makers in the US cannot find new jobs.

"But what about those shoe makers?"

"Well," the mathematical model says, "even if we have to provide financial aid to put those former shoe makers into jobs for which they are currently underqualified, the net economic benefit of moving the manufacturing overseas is a win for the US (and for China)."

It's actually all quite true. The mathematical model is as well-tested as gravity. But there's the rub -- right now we're just straight up shifting the cashflow out of labor and into capital gains. From those who work for a living to those who have investment money to put at risk -- without a commensurate job retraining program or economic incentives for employers who migrate those labor resources into the new economy. Done that way, it's absolute shit for the laborers. But what's worse is that leaves them as a wasteful drag on the economy instead of developing them as a productive economic resource. In the long run, it is worse even for the wealthy who are doing a little better in the short run. It is, from a purely objective economic standpoint, fiscally stupid.

And not only are we allowing the shift to happen, we're encouraging it by having a lower capital gains tax rate than the labor tax rate (complicated math, it's higher than the 15% or 20% that the left claims, and lower than the 40% counting corp tax that the right claims, but the real tax incidence of capital gains on the investor is substantially lower than the real tax incidence of income tax on a laborer with the same income).

We are creating the exact sort of economic conditions that have sparked most of the major economic revolutions since the dawn of civilization. And we're seeing the same rise of nationalist rhetoric fueled oligarchy that was at the center of each of those previous examples -- with one major change: This time it's happening in multiple countries at once. Abbot, Harper, and Cameron are as deeply tied to Wall Street and the surveillance industrial complex as Obama and the rest of the party-line Republocrats are.

yesterday
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Former iTunes Engineer Tells Court He Worked To Block Competitors

Bob9113 Re:So much for his career (160 comments)

I hardly doubt that a future employer would hold him accountable for telling the truth under oath.

Was that intentional, Freudian slip, or mistake? I mean, I concur 100% -- there is no doubt in my mind that the most successful US companies strongly favor a willingness to lie under oauth -- but then I've worked on Madison Ave and my brother worked on Wall Street, so I've seen the sausage get made.

5 days ago
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Facebook Offers Solution To End Drunken Posts

Bob9113 Partway There (134 comments)

detect how intoxicated you were in the photo and suggest that you not post it. Which in the end, is probably for the best.

Not bad. Now if we can just get them to suggest that you not post things when you don't look intoxicated, they'll have covered all the cases where not posting things to Facebook probably for the best.

about a week ago
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Are the TSA's New Electronic Device Screenings Necessary?

Bob9113 Re:TSA Has Been Useless Since The Beginning (184 comments)

how can we quantify the effect of simply having *some form* of security...?

Brief aside; of course we should have some security. I'm only saying that the things TSA has done are generally both unnecessary and ineffective.

quantify the effect of ... security to deter the less-suicidal ones?

The way to measure the deterrent effect of a system is by looking at the risk in cases where that system is not in place. In the case of TSA, we can look at cases where the TSA has no deterrent effect and there isn't an analog agency or system. By looking at the probability of attacks that are not deterred by TSA, and comparing that to the probability of attacks in cases where TSA is in place, we can approximate the risk mitigation.

So, for example, we have little or nothing like TSA to deter toxic gas attacks in crowded public spaces. AFAIK, the recent (and possibly accidental) chlorine gas release at the furry convention is the only case since the creation of TSA.

Consider how much terrorism we experienced in the recent years prior to TSA, the level of terrorism in first world nations that don't have something like TSA, and the number of events in the US in areas that are not protected by TSA or a similar deterrent. Compare that to the three minor terrorist attempts that made it through TSA's watch, and their threat level. Even if you take the most pro-TSA estimates you reasonably could, I think we're talking about a deterrent effect that falls somewhere below the life saving benefit of "Don't Run Near The Pool" signs -- at a much higher cost in both dollars and liberty.

about a week ago
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Are the TSA's New Electronic Device Screenings Necessary?

Bob9113 TSA Has Been Useless Since The Beginning (184 comments)

is the TSA right to be cautious or have its actions caused unnecessary hassle for passengers?

The TSA has done about ten billion screenings since its inception. They have caught zero terrorists. They have missed three. All three failed, for reasons completely unrelated to TSA. TSA screenings are ineffective and unnecessary. This has been apparent for years, this story is just one more bit of security theater. TSA panders to the terror that is the terrorists' only weapon when we should be fighting it.

about a week ago
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Congress Passes Bill Allowing Warrantless Forfeiture of Private Communications

Bob9113 Re:PRIVATE encryption of everything just became... (378 comments)

Seriously, what is the NSA going to do when the consequences of their arrogance propagate fully through our information culture?

One thing they'll do is get their oligarch friends to deny services to people who use encryption to keep the government from knowing their identities, like they've been doing with banks and TOR, by implying that people who use privacy protecting encryption are criminals.

about a week ago
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Apple DRM Lawsuit Loses Last Plaintiff, but Judge Rules Against Dismissal

Bob9113 So Charmingly Naive (71 comments)

Ahhh, how delightfully naive we were. Here's the tinfoil hat pessimist's prediction, from that discussion:

More likely, Apple will release a iPod update with COOL NEW FEATURES L@@K which oh yeah, btw, breaks compatibility with real-purchased songs. So then your iPod will not play your Real purchased library, until Real reverse-engineers it again, and who knows how long that'd take. So you'd have perhaps hundreds of dollars of songs on your iPod that you couldn't get to for an indefinite period of time; and Apple would just shrug their shoulders when you complain.

Silly boy, they won't just stop playing competitors' music, they'll burn the crops and sow the fields with salt! Errr, got a little overexcited there. They'll delete the files!

about a week ago
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Supreme Court To Decide Whether Rap Lyric Threats Are Free Speech

Bob9113 Re:Not about rap (436 comments)

Grumble grumble. I came into the comments section to see reactionary histrionics and all you can manage is reasonable and dispassionate analysis?

about three weeks ago
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Debian Forked Over Systemd

Bob9113 Good, Linux Likes Diversity (647 comments)

Diversity is a good thing. I understand that, with increasing use of Linux as a desktop OS by people who don't run servers, systemd makes a lot of sense for some people.

I am the primary admin on servers in three different states. The benefits of using init for remote admin outweigh the simplicity and user-friendliness of systemd on my laptop.

I switched from Mandrake to Debian almost fifteen years ago when I first started doing heavy remote admin, I'll make a change again now, and the world will keep on spinning. Having both approaches is a good thing.

about three weeks ago
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Wikipedia's "Complicated" Relationship With Net Neutrality

Bob9113 All Good Laws Have Costs (134 comments)

Every good law has counterpoints. Traffic signals prevent me from driving through the intersection even when there are no other cars there. Assault laws mean you can't punch someone who talks on their phone at the movies. The right to a trial means we can't just execute people we know are guilty.

One of the other examples I've been hearing lately is about Citizen's United. They say overturning it or passing contradictory legislation could hamper Steven Colbert, or limit the ACLU or EFF. Well, yes, it might. But that would be better, overall, than what we have now.

The goal is not to have laws that capture every nuance. Government is a blunt weapon that must operate in a non-discriminatory fashion. Special cases exist that show the friction in every law. The objective is not for every special case to be efficient, but for the law overall to be efficient.

Last mile providers colluding with incumbents to provide preferential access to consumers harms competition in content. Competition is good in the long run, even for the things we like that may appear to be harmed in the short run. There are natural limitations to competition on carriage, we should not extend those competition limitations to making discriminatory deals with content providers.

about three weeks ago
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Two Google Engineers Say Renewables Can't Cure Climate Change

Bob9113 Re:Well if two google engineers say so (652 comments)

TL;DR version: Register.co.uk is a serial clickbaiting site, they admit it, and this article is an intentional, blatant misrepresentation of the research. Link to El Reg only for the same sort of reasons you would link to The National Enquirer.

about three weeks ago
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Cameron Accuses Internet Companies Of Giving Terrorists Safe Haven

Bob9113 Total Packet Inspection (183 comments)

Some have pointed out the explicit invocation of the slippery slope, but it is worse than that.

His comments to the House of Commons came after the parliamentary intelligence and security committee concluded that the brutal murder of Rigby could have been prevented if an internet company had passed on an online exchange in which one of the killers expressed "in the most graphic terms" his intention to carry out an Islamist jihadi attack.

This is not the same as blocking access to child porn sites. He is calling for the content of all packets to be inspected for unapproved speech.

about three weeks ago
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Here's What Your Car Could Look Like In 2030

Bob9113 There's Still Time! (144 comments)

Blade Runner, for example, posited that the skies above Los Angeles would swarm with flying cars by 2019.

It's only 2014. There's still 5 years. Get to work, everyone!

about three weeks ago
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2014 Hour of Code: Do Ends Justify Disney Product Placement Means?

Bob9113 Not What I Guessed (125 comments)

I can't believe I didn't guess that this was the particular flavor of corporate whoring that Gates and Zuckerberg were up to. Get into the educational pipeline with whatever education issue is hot (it started as just STEM, but then shifted to women in STEM when that started sizzling, if you'll remember). Get some big names to attach their reputations to its success. Then start selling ad space to Disney, who can't get much traction buying ad space inside the schools themselves. I should have guessed, but I didn't. I just thought they were after the data.

about three weeks ago
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Mozilla's 2013 Report: Revenue Up 1% To $314M; 90% From Google

Bob9113 Pi Hundred Million! (161 comments)

Pi hundred million. Nothing more to say, but I'm guessing if I don't add more I will run into the lameness filter.

about a month ago
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Greenwald Advises Market-Based Solution To Mass Surveillance

Bob9113 Pray to God and Row Toward Shore (157 comments)

There's a religious refrain, "Pray to God but row toward shore." It means you should ask for God's help, but that doesn't mean you should just sit there in the boat and wait to be saved.

From the Cryptome PDF:
Yesterday the USA Freedom Act was blocked in the Senate as it failed to garner the 60 votes required to move forward. Presumably the bill would have imposed limits on NSA surveillance. Careful scrutiny of the billâ(TM)s text however reveals yet another mere gesture of reform, one that would codify and entrench existing surveillance capabilities rather than eliminate them.

We didn't really lose anything. The government chose not to pass a platitude. That's probably not going to change until we manage to fix the twin problem of fear and hatred, being stoked by those who gain from emotionalism.

In the meantime, we need to row toward shore. Keep working on all the cryptography solutions you have time to help with. If you have an interest in meme propagation on social media or propaganda, see if you can figure out some ways to weaken the grip of emotionalism. I am, and it's fun.

Sometimes your nation calls on you for service. Sometimes you have to know what it needs even if it doesn't know how to ask.

about a month ago
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"Barbie: I Can Be a Computer Engineer" Pulled From Amazon

Bob9113 I Tried To Skeptic The Review (561 comments)

I saw this yesterday and tried, so hard, to be the skeptic poking holes in a feminist's overreaction -- and failed. This thing is just awful. The best I could come up with was, "Well, there are valuable people on software development teams who do design. I value them immensely, because I can't do it."

Well, sure, and maybe they should also put out a book titled, "I can be a game designer." But that's not the title, and (I can tell you from personal experience) women make fine software engineers. Some great, some awful, most somewhere in between -- just like guys. If they want to make a book with a title about Barbie being a software engineer, they should just tell that story.

about a month ago
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81% of Tor Users Can Be De-anonymized By Analysing Router Information

Bob9113 Re:So don't use Tor at home? (136 comments)

>> when you want to do something without being watched, you use TOR with clean hardware and connectivity.

> So what is clean? I can only think of an Ubuntu VM, default install with maybe one or two addons in Firefox to delete cookies. Nothing that changes or adds fonts...

That's a fairly good version. I think it's about how extreme you want to go and how secure you feel you need to be. You could grab a fresh laptop off Craig's List and only use it for a few days. You could get a Raspberry Pi with no writable storage and change the MAC address every time you power it up. Or, at the other end of the spectrum, you could just have one laptop that you only use for your alternate persona, and always use it for that, if what you need is pseudonymity instead of anonymity (that's the most aggressive thing I do, actually, being one of those people who doesn't actually have anything to hide, but still believes in privacy as a matter of principle).

And, of course, every step you take is a good one. It all helps to confound those who would violate what I believe are inalienable rights.

about 1 month ago
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Can the US Actually Cultivate Local Competition in Broadband?

Bob9113 Re:Can government solve government problems? (135 comments)

Frequency allocations, overseen by the FCC, are a government protected monopoly.

Frequency competition has the most clear natural limits on competition of any of the carriage technologies you mention, but they exist for all of them. If more than one carrier uses the same slice of spectrum, they all degrade. Laissez-faire does a horrible job of maximizing production with wireless spectrum. Easements for wires and the natural barrier to entry of sinking new cables create a similar problem with wired carriage.

The FCC is not creating fiat carriage monopolies, they are managing natural limitations to carriage competition.

It is worth noting that there are genuine fiat monopolies at the local and state levels, but those are almost always created by the corporations through lobbying, partnerships, or collusion, not by the unaided whim of a bureaucrat.

about a month ago

Submissions

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Obama Posts Net Neutrality Petition

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about a month ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "President Obama has posted a petition for net neutrality, targeted at the FCC. The page reads: Stand up for net neutrality President Obama is taking a stand to keep the internet open and free. Add your name to tell the FCC you support the President's plan to protect net neutrality."
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GamerGate May Have Been an Op

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about 3 months ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "Casey Johnston at Ars Technica has a story on GamerGate: "A set of IRC logs released Saturday appear to show that a handful of 4chan users were ultimately behind #GamerGate, the supposedly grass-roots movement aimed at exposing ethical lapses in gaming journalism. The logs show a small group of users orchestrating a "hashtag campaign" to perpetuate misogynistic attacks by wrapping them in a debate about ethics in gaming journalism....""
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Electric Neutrality: An Alternative Perspective on Net Neutrality

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about 7 months ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "I have been trying to frame Net Neutrality to explain it to a broader audience. I have been comparing it to the shipping carrier networks, but that works best with people who already understand common carrier and how it relates to physical carriage. A couple days ago, I thought of a different service to compare it to, and it is proving much easier to explain to people who are less familiar with limited competition networks. I created a YouTube video that explores how electricity network neutrality is critical to protecting the free market in electric appliances."
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May 15 FCC Protest to Support Net Neutrality

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about 7 months ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "On Thursday, May 15, hundreds will rally outside the Federal Communications Commission’s headquarters in Washington, D.C., to protest Chairman Wheeler’s proposal that has the potential to stop the flow of a free and open Internet. On this same day, thousands of activists, organizations and companies will take action online to save the Internet. “Chairman Wheeler is feeling the grassroots pressure against his pay-for-prioritization proposal. But he still isn’t giving Internet users the Net Neutrality protections they demand,” said Free Press President and CEO Craig Aaron. “He needs to abandon the flimsy and failed legal approach of his predecessors and reclassify Internet service providers as the common carriers they are. If preventing fast and slow lanes on the Internet is the goal, reclassification is the way forward.""
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NSA Tampers With US Made Routers Before Export

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about 7 months ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "According to Glenn Greenwald, reporting at The Guardian: 'A June 2010 report from the head of the NSA's Access and Target Development department is shockingly explicit. The NSA routinely receives – or intercepts – routers, servers, and other computer network devices being exported from the US before they are delivered to the international customers. The agency then implants backdoor surveillance tools, repackages the devices with a factory seal, and sends them on. The NSA thus gains access to entire networks and all their users. The document gleefully observes that some "SIGINT tradecraft is very hands-on (literally!)".'"
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Final Surge Needed for Net Neutrality Petition

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about 7 months ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "We need one more big surge of traffic, ideally starting Monday or Tuesday morning at around 10 AM Eastern, to get the Net Neutrality petition to 100k votes on time. I've been tracking the vote rate and it runs fastest on Tuesday, during the work day. We will get the most traction if as many people as possible promote the petition on their social network channels starting early this week. Please consider raising the issue and the petition on your social network channels to help generate the final surge in traffic we need to hit 100k signatures. The petition may not have as much legal authority as we would like, but at least it is a potent rhetorical device for Jessica Rosenworcel and Mignon Clyburn, the two FCC commissioners who are already raising opposition to allowing a fast lane."
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New White House Petition for Net Neutrality

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about 8 months ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "On the heels of yesterday's FCC bombshell, there is a new petition on the White House petition site titled, "Maintain true net neutrality to protect the freedom of information in the United States." The body reads: "True net neutrality means the free exchange of information between people and organizations. Information is key to a society's well being. One of the most effective tactics of an invading military is to inhibit the flow of information in a population; this includes which information is shared and by who. Today we see this war being waged on American citizens. Recently the FCC has moved to redefine "net neutrality" to mean that corporations and organizations can pay to have their information heard, or worse, the message of their competitors silenced. We as a nation must settle for nothing less than complete neutrality in our communication channels. This is not a request, but a demand by the citizens of this nation. No bandwidth modifications of information based on content or its source.""
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RNC Calls For Halt To Unconstitutional Surveillance

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about a year ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "According to an article on Ars Technica, the Republican National Committee (RNC) has passed a resolution that "encourages Republican lawmakers to immediately take action to halt current unconstitutional surveillance programs and provide a full public accounting of the NSA's data collection programs." The resolution, according to Time, was approved by an overwhelming majority voice vote at the Republican National Committee's Winter Meeting General Session, going on this week in Washington, DC."
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The Patent Problem Is Bigger Than Trolls

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about a year ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "Ars Technica reports the following: "Canada-based telecom Nortel went bankrupt in 2009 and sold its biggest asset--a portfolio of more than 6,000 patents covering 4G wireless innovations and a range of technologies--at an auction in 2011. Google bid for the patents, but didn't get them. Instead, they went to a group of competitors--Microsoft, Apple, RIM, Ericsson, and Sony--operating under the name "Rockstar Bidco." The companies together bid the shocking sum of $4.5 billion. This afternoon, that stockpile was finally used for what pretty much everyone suspected it would be used for--launching an all-out patent attack on Google and Android. The smartphone patent wars have been underway for a few years now, and the eight lawsuits filed in federal court today by Rockstar Consortium mean that the conflict just hit DEFCON 1.""
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Defense Distributed Liberator Takedown

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about a year and a half ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "The top of the download page for the 3D model files of the Liberator — the 3D printable handgun from Defense Distributed — now bears the following notice: "DEFCAD files are being removed from public access at the request of the US Department of Defense Trade Controls. Until further notice, the United States government claims control of the information." There are no links on the page to download the .stl model files. The Wikipedia page for Defense Distributed suggests that the model files can still be found on torrent sites, though torrenting those files may have significant legal implications."
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Khanna Axed Over Copyright Memo

Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  about 2 years ago

Bob9113 (14996) writes "Ars Technica reports that Derek Khanna is getting axed over his memo detailing the conflict between laissez-faire-oriented free market ideals and the regulatory monopoly that is copyright.
"The Republican Study Committee, a caucus of Republicans in the House of Representatives, has told staffer Derek Khanna that he will be out of a job when Congress re-convenes in January. The incoming chairman of the RSC, Steve Scalise (R-LA) was approached by several Republican members of Congress who were upset about a memo Khanna wrote advocating reform of copyright law. They asked that Khanna not be retained, and Scalise agreed to their request.""

Link to Original Source
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Bob9113 Bob9113 writes  |  more than 7 years ago

Bob9113 writes "Kevin Rose, founder of Digg, posted the following. Doing what you believe is right, what your customers believe is right, in the face of impossible odds — that is honor. The following is copied verbatim.

Digg This: 09-f9-11-02-9d-74-e3-5b-d8-41-56-c5-63-56-88-c0

by Kevin Rose at 9pm, May 1st, 2007 in Digg Website

Today was an insane day. And as the founder of Digg, I just wanted to post my thoughts...

In building and shaping the site I've always tried to stay as hands on as possible. We've always given site moderation (digging/burying) power to the community. Occasionally we step in to remove stories that violate our terms of use (eg. linking to pornography, illegal downloads, racial hate sites, etc.). So today was a difficult day for us. We had to decide whether to remove stories containing a single code based on a cease and desist declaration. We had to make a call, and in our desire to avoid a scenario where Digg would be interrupted or shut down, we decided to comply and remove the stories with the code.

But now, after seeing hundreds of stories and reading thousands of comments, you've made it clear. You'd rather see Digg go down fighting than bow down to a bigger company. We hear you, and effective immediately we won't delete stories or comments containing the code and will deal with whatever the consequences might be.

If we lose, then what the hell, at least we died trying.

Digg on,

Kevin"

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