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Greenspan Tells Congress Bad Data Hurt Wall Street

DanielJosphXhan Re:Keep Changing Assumptions Until the Right Answe (496 comments)

And of course no-one really wants to say this: "No model can predict the future, because the data from the past does not necessarily follow in the future."

We have all sorts of very nice models built by very bright people who will try to convince anyone that their model can tell you how to trade, or what to invest in, or what this market or that market can do. There are several problems with this: Not only can a model not accurately predict future events, especially major, "abnormal" future events, but the model can't even take into account enough data to accurately model the past! You find that you overlooked a data point, that something was correlated that you think was not correlated; you find that things become correlated that were never correlated before.

Models have their place, but directing the overall flow of interest rates and investment and market direction is not that place. How many times do we have to have every single model proved absolutely and totally wrong by freak events before we say enough?

more than 5 years ago
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Bacteria Make Major Evolutionary Shift In the Lab

DanielJosphXhan Re:Two words (1185 comments)

This is of course a fine strawman you have (barely) managed to tear down. "Godists" come in all stripes and colours, including those who have followed the development of evolution and agree with it, and those who do not.

On the other hand, evolutionary biology, when misapplied to the social (pretend) sciences, produced a whole range of crimes against humanity whose shock waves have turned the Western mind inside out. But let's sweep those under the rug in favour of pointing out what a hypothetical group of people (who you invented) might do their hypothetical children (who you also invented).

more than 6 years ago

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