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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

Glock27 Re: The Heartland Institute (552 comments)

The same process that reduces Arctic ice (warming), increases Antarctic ice (warming).

That is one hypothesis, and an unproven one.

The difference is that the sea ice in Antarctica comes from the land.

No, almost all of it comes from freezing seawater.

Also there is some increase in mainland ice in Antarctica due to the increased moisture in the air (also due to warming) as normally Antarctic air is dry like a desert.

Right, it never snows in Antarctica...the miles-thick sheets of ice appeared by magic. Got it.

Regardless, both places are losing ice in the long run.

That of course remains to be seen. Also be clear on sea ice versus landlocked ice. Some parts of the antarctic icecap are growing.

Adding Arctic sea-ice coverage to Antarctic sea-ice coverage to say that everything is ok is just trying to spin the facts to suit your politics.

No, it's an objective look at polar sea ice based on the only directly measurable metric. Your interpretation of that is exactly that - one interpretation. Furthermore, you should reflect (oops, bad pun) on the fact that the additional antarctic sea ice increases albedo and thus has a net cooling effect - the same argument used to say that arctic sea ice loss is increasing arctic ocean heating.

The science is quite clear.

No, the science is not clear. What is clear is the desperation of those shouting "the science is settled" while stubborn reality continues to contradict the beautiful theories and models. :-)

about a month ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

Glock27 Re: The Heartland Institute (552 comments)

Try looking at actual data [woodfortrees.org]. That's the RSS data, which is inherently better than spotty surface station coverage in that it directly integrates the entire lower troposphere. That's a slightly negative trend that's going hard on twenty years...all with CO2 levels worth panicking over according to some.

Ok, what makes the RSS data better than the UAH MSU satellite data? If you're ignoring that you're just cherry picking.

Nothing in particular. Here's the last 10 years (you know, the 10 years with the highest CO2 levels in history) of UAH data, showing a dead flat temperature trend. The point being, warming has definitely paused on around a decadal time scale. Will it last longer? That's a very interesting question. Solar activity, despite being near a maximum in the 11 year cycle, is low. The interesting thing is that the next cycle (forecast to begin roughly around 2020) is predicted to be extremely low - so low that a sunspot will be a rare event for 12-15 years (weak solar cycles are also longer). Such low cycles have historically been associated with quite significant temperature drops. So, we may in fact see flat or declining temperatures through 2035 or longer. That will be quite a shock for the alarmists if it works out that way. :-)

BTW, it may not be only lower solar irradiance that's responsible for lower temperatures, there may be other effects having to do with the solar wind and/or the solar magnetic field.

The fact is that RSS is using an older satellite for their data and may have some issues with deteriorating orbits and sensors that aren't properly accounted for.

Citation? My understanding is that RSS and UAH are two independent analyses of the same data. The relevant Wikipedia article contains no mention of such a thing...

At any rate, this chart shows the close agreement between the two datasets.

about a month ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

Glock27 Re: The Heartland Institute (552 comments)

I could have sworn I replied to this before, but yes I'm sure. Prehistory is a different thing.

about a month ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

Glock27 Re: The Heartland Institute (552 comments)

I'm repeating a few things others have said in reply to your post but adding on here to help fill up your /. side bar... 1) Like the first guy said, your chart shows sea ice area is clearly near the bottom. The summary says "trending near", not absolute lows. So you proved that point for them.

It can't be "trending near" if the trend is up from the low. Right now it's 15% higher than it was in 2012, or 810,000 km^2 in absolute terms. It's perilously ;) close to 1995 levels.

2)Your temperature graph shows quite a bit of white but on the whole, there is a lot more red tint than blue, especially considering the scale is over +/- 10C. Ask any 5 year old what the main color is for the ocean and they'll say red. Its obviously abnormally warm.

As I pointed out to someone else, almost all of that is well north of the region where hurricanes form - and hurricane formation is what the summary addressed. There is also something called "natural variability" which can cause quite large anomalies at times, and which has nothing to do with humans. Finally, as I said before, the baseline for the SST anomalies is completely arbitrary - there is nothing to say it's "normal".

Every now and then I go down your "informed skeptic" rabbit holes to make sure I didn't miss anything in my personal conclusion that AGW is real and a problem, but every time the data YOU present always ends up refuting your point. Whats your game in all this?

Reality. What's yours?

FWIW, I do support a large scale conversion of coal electric generation to nuclear - I think that's a reasonable point of compromise for the alarmists. :-)

about a month ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

Glock27 Re: The Heartland Institute (552 comments)

everything you said has been debunked by actual facts.

No, it is NOT true that temperatures have been essentially flat.

Well, putting it in bold clearly means you're right...not.

Try looking at actual data. That's the RSS data, which is inherently better than spotty surface station coverage in that it directly integrates the entire lower troposphere. That's a slightly negative trend that's going hard on twenty years...all with CO2 levels worth panicking over according to some.

The sea ice is only a "rebound" because its being compared to the previous year which was THE LOWEST SEA ICE EVER RECORDED.

2012 was the lowest (due mainly to a weather phenomenon, not climate in particular. 2013 was the rebound year, and this year looks to be continuing the trend. Will the long-term decline resume? Personally, I doubt it based on solar activity, but we'll see...

Thank you for the public service of displaying your ignorance, now go away.

I'll leave it to the readers to decide who's ignorant (or brainwashed:).

As for your Slate link, it's addressing one specific article. It makes the tired "the heat is hiding in the ocean" claim, which has not been verified whatsoever. How has the ocean been heating (imperceptibly) for almost 20 years while the atmosphere stays the same temperature, pray tell?

You might also want to reflect on the fact that while the Arctic ice has been generally on the decline, Antarctic sea ice has been at record extent this year, and global ice as a whole is around average...

about a month ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

Glock27 Re:"Essentially flat" (552 comments)

The preceding 100 years have not been a "steady upward trend", furthermore by all accounts CO2 was not a significant contributor in the early part of that period when temperatures rose fastest.

From basic physics it's clear CO2 will produce some warming. The important question is how much, and the jury is still very much out on that. It's highly dependent on water vapor feedback and cloud formation. The current trend seems to indicate lower sensitivity to CO2 levels than previously thought.

There's no realistic scenario where we won't see 500 PPM CO2 at least. It's encouraging that things aren't looking worse.

about a month ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

Glock27 Re: The Heartland Institute (552 comments)

It's very close to average, with the main development region flat or below normal. The highest anomalies are well north of hurricane formation territory.

Regardless, the temperatures on that map are well within natural variability, not "abnormally warm". Also bear in mind that the "anomalies" are versus an arbitrarily chosen baseline in the first place.

about a month ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

Glock27 Re: The Heartland Institute (552 comments)

Nope. 2012 was a record low minimum, but 2013 was a significant rebound. This year is slightly above 2013 levels so far, contrary to the summary's alarmism.

about a month ago
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The Last Three Months Were the Hottest Quarter On Record

Glock27 Re: The Heartland Institute (552 comments)

So, you like them because they're untainted by facts? Good point. No, great point, wouldn't want to be led astray by facts.

Actually the summary is fairly untainted by facts. For instance:

Arctic sea ice is trending near record lows for this time of year, abnormally warm ocean water helped spawn the earliest hurricane ever recorded to make landfall in North Carolina, and a rash of heat waves have plagued cities from India to California to the Middle East.

Yikes, that all sounds alarming right?

Except...

1) Arctic sea ice is actually currently above last year's level, which was already a rebound of over 25 million square km more than the previous year at the minimum extents.

2) The ocean waters in the North Atlantic hurricane region are right around average for this time of year, by no means "abnormally warm".

3) "Rashes of heat waves plague" various places every summer, and always have. NOAA recently reinstated 1934 as the hottest year in the US on record.

The article attacking the Heartland data does have a minor point, but it is absolutely true that temperatures have been essentially flat for around 17 years, while CO2 has been at the highest levels in history. There have been quite a few peer reviewed papers trying to explain this pause, so it's clearly a real phenomena. We'll see if it continues, the El Nino this year is now expected to be a fairly minor event.

At this time, the forecasters anticipate El Niño will peak at weak-to-moderate strength during the late fall and early winter (3-month values of the Niño-3.4 index between 0.5oC and 1.4oC).

about a month ago
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Blueprints For Taming the Climate Crisis

Glock27 Re:Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! (389 comments)

Those links are dated, and don't do a thing to refute the plots being discussed.

Again, all that data is publicly available. It is absolutely a fact that things haven't warmed appreciably in around 16 years...all while CO2 has been at the highest levels so far. So yes, the vast majority of climate models had predicted higher temperatures versus what we've been seeing.

about a month ago
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Blueprints For Taming the Climate Crisis

Glock27 Re:Climate Change on Slashdot? Bring on the fun! (389 comments)

Hint: Dr. Spencer is as qualified as anyone to evaluate the science. His plots are displaying publicly available data. Do you have any actual basis for disputing the plots? Citation please...

about a month ago
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House Majority Leader Defeated In Primary

Glock27 Re:Few Democrats voted (932 comments)

And I hear this puts the former republican stronghold district in play for the democrats now. Plus a tremendous loss of seniority and political power for the republicans will be gone so spending in Virginia is likely to drop significantly.

This district is strongly Republican, nothing's "in play". Your list missed one very important "wedge" issue, amnesty for illegal aliens. Cantor's support for that was deeply unpopular, just as amnesty generally is across the country.

I'm an independent with increasingly strong liberal tendencies since 2004. But I'm not sure if I'm really growing more liberal or if the republicans are simply moving rightward away from the middle.

You should work on converting your "liberal" tendencies to "libertarian" tendencies. The liberal/progressive direction in this country is clearly towards huge government, oppression, socialism, and a grim future. What we need is a strong dose of freedom and capitalism, the things that made America great in the first place.

I'm pretty optimistic things will take a turn for the better in 2016. At least we won't have to keep enduring the endless abuses of power from 0bama. Perhaps he'll even finally be impeached in the meantime!

about 2 months ago
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Apple Announces New Programming Language Called Swift

Glock27 Re:Bjarne Stroustrup (636 comments)

The problem it solves is that Objective-C has its peculiarities: no garbage collection, named parameters, etc etc, and there aren't any other languages I can think of that are modern, full featured, and have those peculiarities.

Your comment is poorly phrased (at first I thought you meant that Swift has GC where ObjC doesn't).

At any rate, the "peculiarity" of no GC is a feature not a bug. GC based languages have yet to solve the deterministic timing problem, and it's significant for a wide range of applications. GC is also wasteful of memory. ARC provides much the same painless experience, while avoiding the shortcomings.

Apple provided optional GC for ObjC code for a while, but has now deprecated it.

about 3 months ago
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Apple Announces New Programming Language Called Swift

Glock27 Re:Somebody post a SWIFT example PLEASE! (636 comments)

Quite frankly, it looks like a poor man's C#, with some Haskellisms (tuples, -> syntax) thrown in for good measure.

For many applications, and most interactive applications, it will kick C# all over the parking lot...

  • - It's AOT compiled to highly optimized native code using LLVM. (I see that Mono allows this to some extent...)
  • - It uses ARC instead of GC. That also allows deterministic timing, no semi-random GC pauses and more efficient memory use.

It'll be interesting seeing some Xamarin versus Swift benchmarks...

about 3 months ago
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R Throwdown Challenge

Glock27 Re:Bad analogy (185 comments)

Exactly. Julia will eat R for lunch soon enough, I think. It's an elegant, well designed and efficient language. It's only been around for a couple of years, and has a very vibrant and rapidly growing community.

Check it out for yourself: The Julia Language Homepage. It's got a lot to offer anyone with an interest in mathematics, including statisticians. It's based on the LLVM, and interfaces trivially with C libraries - plus it's a very fast language in it's own right, unlike R or Python.

about 3 months ago
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Thorium: The Wonder Fuel That Wasn't

Glock27 Re:Thorium: The Wonder Fuel that Will Be (204 comments)

its not any better than Uranium with the exception that its 5 times more of it in land based source. So its no more a solution than any nuclear.

Liquid fluoride thorium reactors (LFTRs) are better in many regards:

  • - LFTRs are provably meltdown-proof.
  • - LFTRs run at lower pressure, so are much safer than boiling water designs.
  • - LFTRs don't produce explosive hydrogen, which caused the Fukushima explosions.
  • - LFTRs produce much smaller volumes of waste than current U/Pu reactors for the same power production.
  • - LFTR waste is dangerous for only a few hundred years, instead of over 10,000 years.
  • - LFTR installations take much less space than current U/Pu reactor installations.
  • - LFTRs don't require water cooling, unlike current U/Pu reactors - they can be sited inland and away from rivers.
  • - LFTRs operate at higher temperatures, making power generation more efficient, and provide waste heat for desalination if desired.
  • - There's no meaningful weapons proliferation risk with LFTRs, so they can be exported to growing third-world economies.

And good luck getting the general public behind nuclear.

Education is a good thing. If people actually understood the risks and mortality figures from fossil fuel production, they'd see even conventional nuclear is a no-brainer. We've been operating around 100 nuclear plants in the US for decades with no significant issues. France has also had a great track record with nuclear. On the other hand, hundreds of thousands of people a year die from coal electricity generation alone. The total toll from all nuclear reactor problems ever doesn't even come close to one year's worth of coal power.

There's also mercury pollution, and ocean acidification to consider...

Then there's the "climate change threat"...anyone who's serious about lowering CO2 output will have to accept a role for nuclear, as there's absolutely no meaningful way to lower CO2 production without it.

Regardless of public opinion, I'm confident the grownups will make the right decision sooner or later.

about 3 months ago
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Thorium: The Wonder Fuel That Wasn't

Glock27 Re:Thorium: The Wonder Fuel that Will Be (204 comments)

It is not a panacea

Oh, but it is. It's the only realistic means available today to replace coal-fired electricity generation worldwide with a CO2-free alternative.

Regardless of AGW, replacing coal-fired electric plants with a clean alternative is a good idea.

about 3 months ago
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Thorium: The Wonder Fuel That Wasn't

Glock27 Re:Thorium: The Wonder Fuel that Will Be (204 comments)

Whoops, I hit submit before I was ready...

That should read "...LFTR (Liquid Flouride Thorium Reactor)...".

about 3 months ago
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Thorium: The Wonder Fuel That Wasn't

Glock27 Thorium: The Wonder Fuel that Will Be (204 comments)

All in all, I actually expect better from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

You would think. Clearly, though, this is just a hit piece on thorium, even though it has nothing to do with modern thorium reactor designs.

Thorium is well suited to molten salt reactor designs, and in fact is best used in liquid form. These LFTR (Liquid designs will fission 90%+ of the fuel, instead of the 0.5% fissioned by conventional reactors. This means a lot less waste for the amount of energy produced. Also, the waste from such reactors is dangerous for much less time than that from conventional reactors.

Thorium reactors are being developed by Russia and China. In the US, Flibe Energy is working on LFTR designs. There's lots of interesting information in their site.

Thorium power should most definitely be developed. It's a clean, safe source of baseline power - and doesn't take the vast space required for (inconstant) solar and wind. Plus, eventually it will be great for space applications.

about 3 months ago
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Richard Stallman Answers Your Questions

Glock27 Re:Um... (394 comments)

Touting how libre software solves all of your security concerns right after everything that wasnt IIS just got their private keys stolen because of libre software, is a bit ridiculous.

Keys were stolen because of a software bug, free software or not. The fact is that the overall state of software "engineering", is poor. I'm quite sure there are plenty of similar issues with closed-source software, although there is the under appreciated benefit of "security through obscurity".

The point holds, though, that open source software should generally be more bug-free than closed source. What we need are more motivated people (and better tools) to search for vulnerabilities. It's much better when white hats find them than black hats.

about 3 months ago

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