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Past Measurements May Have Missed Massive Ocean Warming

Kernel Kurtz Re:What happens to that heat? (423 comments)

No worries.

It will be either warmer or colder tomorrow too.

about two weeks ago
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Past Measurements May Have Missed Massive Ocean Warming

Kernel Kurtz Re:What happens to that heat? (423 comments)

The proper thing to do would be to count all categories and figure out how much energy conversion each represents individually and cumulatively.

about two weeks ago
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Past Measurements May Have Missed Massive Ocean Warming

Kernel Kurtz Re:please no (423 comments)

there is a direct correlation between the rise in fossil fuel use starting with the Industrial Revolution (~1850) and the incremental rise in global average temperatures.

No question it has been warming since at least 1850. Nothing unusual since then.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/pl...

If you have a graph plotting CO2 emissions over that time period I would LOVE to see the correlation.

Good luck.

about two weeks ago
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Past Measurements May Have Missed Massive Ocean Warming

Kernel Kurtz Re:please no (423 comments)

Even if we were able to improve climate models by leaps and bounds above the current ones (which themselves are pretty accurate), there would still be *some* uncertainty.

It's not that simple. No model will ever likely be entirely accurate, there will always be uncertainty. I'm not a climate scientist, but I know something about computing. In their large ensemble of models (I think there are around 30 of them in CMIP) you would expect some to overestimate, and some to underestimate, and observations (ie The Real World) would fall somewhere in the bell curve between if they represented an anywhere near realistic range of scenarios. That fact that they virtually ALL overestimate warming leads me to think there is something fundamentally wrong with the methodology across the entire group.

If they want us to trust them for anything important they should start by working on that. You don't have to be a climate scientists to think of where the problem might be.

about two weeks ago
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Past Measurements May Have Missed Massive Ocean Warming

Kernel Kurtz Re:What happens to that heat? (423 comments)

New research suggests that the upper layer of the ocean has warmed more than had been thought previously while the deeper ocean has cooled rather than warmed in recent years.

http://judithcurry.com/2014/10...

about two weeks ago
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Past Measurements May Have Missed Massive Ocean Warming

Kernel Kurtz Re:please no (423 comments)

A paper published today in Nature Climate Change finds climate models have greatly exaggerated global warming over the past 20 years, noting the observed warming is "less than half" of the modeled warming.

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot....

A new paper by prominent German climatologists Dr. Hans von Storch and Dr. Eduardo Zorita, et al, finds "that the continued [global] warming stagnation over fifteen years, from 1998 -2012, is no longer consistent with model projections even at the 2% confidence level

http://hockeyschtick.blogspot....

about two weeks ago
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Antarctic Ice Loss Big Enough To Cause Measurable Shift In Earth's Gravity

Kernel Kurtz Re:The last sentence in the summary... (232 comments)

It sure was no record hot summer here in Manitoba, and last winter was the coldest since the late 1800s.

about three weeks ago
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Study Links Pacific Coastal Warming To Changing Winds

Kernel Kurtz Re:What I want to know... (207 comments)

Given how bad their predictions are I don't lose any sleep.

I'll revisit when and if they actually have some track record of accuracy.

Don't let me interrupt your panic, though.

about three weeks ago
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Exxon and Russian Operation Discovers Oil Field Larger Than the Gulf of Mexico

Kernel Kurtz Re:1 Billion Barrels (201 comments)

You know that's one well in a potentially huge field, right?

Though 11 days of worldwide energy from one well is impressive in it's own right........

about three weeks ago
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State of Iowa Tells Tesla To Cancel Its Scheduled Test Drives

Kernel Kurtz Re:So, import it (335 comments)

Why wouldn't someone from Iowa just buy the Tesla from a neighboring state and import it...

For the current high end cars Tesla makes this probably works most of the time. They are fighting it, but it is not killing them. If you can afford one you can afford a bit extra to fly somewhere else to test and/or pay for delivery. Your own state still may or may not screw you on the taxes.

As they seek to move down market to the masses that will not work as well. Their current business model is not suffering, but their future one will.

about three weeks ago
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Study Links Pacific Coastal Warming To Changing Winds

Kernel Kurtz Re:What I want to know... (207 comments)

Historically a warm climate has been better for humans than a cold one.

about a month ago
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Study Links Pacific Coastal Warming To Changing Winds

Kernel Kurtz Re:"Belief" is not part of the scientific method (207 comments)

Hypothesis, prediction, and observation. You know, actual science.

Except for the prediction part, which is pretty bad.

I would not want climate scientists as my investment advisers.

about a month ago
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How Scientific Consensus Has Gotten a Bad Reputation

Kernel Kurtz Re:Science creates understanding of a real world. (770 comments)

Naive modeling shows that substantially increasing the CO2 concentrations from current levels of the atmosphere shift the equilibrium temperatures of the planet substantially. More complex models incorporating other known factors, within the entire range of their uncertainty levels, show the same thing.

Except the models almost all overestimate warming when compared to reality over time. I'd expect reality to be more in the middle of the bell curve. The fact it is not tells me there is something wrong with the whole ensemble of models. And I can guess what it is.

about a month and a half ago
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How Scientific Consensus Has Gotten a Bad Reputation

Kernel Kurtz Re:Science creates understanding of a real world. (770 comments)

Unfortunately, nature has not been cooperating

Sums it up well. Chrichton is completely right when he said science needs to reflect real world observations.

Unfortunately, it's very clear that climate science cannot accurately predict what climate will do at annual or decadal timescales. They want you to believe they can do so at timescales you won't live to verify.

Sorry, appeals to authority won't work here. Come back when you have some track record - any at all - of meaningful predictive ability.

BTW Your models are lame. As a computer geek they are embarrassing.....

about a month and a half ago
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NSA Agents Leak Tor Bugs To Developers

Kernel Kurtz Good to see (116 comments)

not everyone who works for the NSA is a douchebag.

I'm sure most of them still are, but this is encouraging nonetheless.

about 2 months ago
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Scientists Baffled By Unknown Source of Ozone-Depleting Chemical

Kernel Kurtz Re:Easy, India or China (303 comments)

And a huge number of people, not just in America but indeed all around the world, persist in having open fires, despite the EPA regulating wood stoves and fireplaces.

Bastards don't know Thermageddon is upon us. You would think they would not need fires.

about 2 months ago
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How California's Carbon Market Actually Works

Kernel Kurtz Al Gore makes millions (97 comments)

selling "carbon credits". It's like the Pope selling indulgences.

He does a world class job of advertising too.

Of course anyone who could actually predict climate could be a multi-billionaire with ease.

Instead they apparently sell carbon credits.

about 2 months ago

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