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How Scientific Consensus Has Gotten a Bad Reputation

Kernel Kurtz Re:Science creates understanding of a real world. (770 comments)

Naive modeling shows that substantially increasing the CO2 concentrations from current levels of the atmosphere shift the equilibrium temperatures of the planet substantially. More complex models incorporating other known factors, within the entire range of their uncertainty levels, show the same thing.

Except the models almost all overestimate warming when compared to reality over time. I'd expect reality to be more in the middle of the bell curve. The fact it is not tells me there is something wrong with the whole ensemble of models. And I can guess what it is.

about two weeks ago
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How Scientific Consensus Has Gotten a Bad Reputation

Kernel Kurtz Re:Science creates understanding of a real world. (770 comments)

Unfortunately, nature has not been cooperating

Sums it up well. Chrichton is completely right when he said science needs to reflect real world observations.

Unfortunately, it's very clear that climate science cannot accurately predict what climate will do at annual or decadal timescales. They want you to believe they can do so at timescales you won't live to verify.

Sorry, appeals to authority won't work here. Come back when you have some track record - any at all - of meaningful predictive ability.

BTW Your models are lame. As a computer geek they are embarrassing.....

about two weeks ago
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NSA Agents Leak Tor Bugs To Developers

Kernel Kurtz Good to see (116 comments)

not everyone who works for the NSA is a douchebag.

I'm sure most of them still are, but this is encouraging nonetheless.

about a month ago
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Scientists Baffled By Unknown Source of Ozone-Depleting Chemical

Kernel Kurtz Re:Easy, India or China (303 comments)

And a huge number of people, not just in America but indeed all around the world, persist in having open fires, despite the EPA regulating wood stoves and fireplaces.

Bastards don't know Thermageddon is upon us. You would think they would not need fires.

about 1 month ago
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How California's Carbon Market Actually Works

Kernel Kurtz Al Gore makes millions (97 comments)

selling "carbon credits". It's like the Pope selling indulgences.

He does a world class job of advertising too.

Of course anyone who could actually predict climate could be a multi-billionaire with ease.

Instead they apparently sell carbon credits.

about a month ago
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Canadian ISP On Disclosing Subscriber Info: Come Back With a Warrant

Kernel Kurtz Re:Getting a warrant (55 comments)

It's difficulty will be on a scale of one to ten how reasonable it is.

"In 2011, the Canadian Wireless Telecommunications Association reported to Canada's privacy commissioner its members received 1.2 million requests for customer information in one year and disclosed information about 780,000 customers. http://www.cbc.ca/m/touch/news..."

I'm betting on a sizable dent in those numbers.

about 2 months ago
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Fighting Climate Change With Trade

Kernel Kurtz Re:Does anyone oppose this? tsarkon reports (155 comments)

Especially when you pick which tree rings give you the answer you want, and then graft modern data on to it (cough).

And for our ability to measure becoming more precise, I guess that is why they change their methodology regularly (ie HADCRUT2, 3, 4....). We all know good scientists constantly change how they measure things, for consistency. And of course they continually "correct" decades old data as required as well. And if you delete the original data all the better. No going back LOL.

And I work in IT, I know a bit about modelling and algorithms, and though that is far from my expertise, I have to say their ability to model climate is pretty dismal. ALL the models overestimate over the last decades. You would expect in a good ensemble for some to be high and some to be low and reality to be somewhere in between, but they are ALL high. Oh Noes, we're gonna die!!! And it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out why. Models assume as their raison de etre it is all about CO2. Climate is not all about CO2, it's way more complex than that.

I like science as much as anyone, and even ignoring the problems with falsifiability or reproducibility in climate science, few other branches of scientific inquiry leave me as underwhelmed with their predictive ability. If you want to know what it will be like in a century, you have to have some idea of what happens in between. In high school they called it showing your work.

So far it's a fail.

about 2 months ago
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Fighting Climate Change With Trade

Kernel Kurtz Oh good. (155 comments)

Another climate change thread.

Let the fun begin!

about 2 months ago
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Study: Global Warming Solvable If Fossil Fuel Subsidies Given To Clean Energy

Kernel Kurtz Re: How do you solve a problem that doesn't exist? (385 comments)

If your doctors know as much about physiology as scientists know about climate, you are gonna die either way.

about 2 months ago
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US House of Representatives Votes To Cut Funding To NSA

Kernel Kurtz Re:Just a note (164 comments)

I expect the queen is just chilling with her corgis.

Myself, I'm profoundly glad I don't live in America.

So yes, it is nice.

about 3 months ago
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Unintended Consequences For Traffic Safety Feature

Kernel Kurtz This is not new (579 comments)

Even before the installation of countdown timers here, I've always considered the walk/don't walk lights as an indication of what the traffic lights are going to do. If you travel past the same intersections regularly you learn how long the don't walk light lasts before the traffic signal turns yellow, and you learn the sequencing of things like turn lights as well. This has always seemed to me to be common sense, though a lot of drivers are clearly oblivious to it.

If that useful extra information causes you to get in accidents, however, then you are not using it correctly.

about 3 months ago
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Disappointed Woz Sells His "Worthless" Galaxy Gear Watch

Kernel Kurtz Re:Agreed. (242 comments)

I have a Pebble was thinking of getting a Gear just for the better screen and generally better quality materials.

It's handy in the car for reading texts. It would be illegal to do that on my phone here, but I can sit right beside a cop car and scroll through them on my watch with no issues. Obviously have to stop to send them though.

Also great having the GPS rangefinder on my wrist when golfing as opposed to constantly checking a phone.

It's rudimentary first gen tech, but I can see it getting better and more useful over time. I doubt the niche will just disappear as a fad.

about 3 months ago
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US House of Representatives Votes To Cut Funding To NSA

Kernel Kurtz Re:Just a note (164 comments)

As a Canadian I do find it fascinating. So many Americans feel they need their guns to protect their rights and freedoms and are very vocal about that, but your rights and freedoms are disappearing at a rapid pace and the guns don't seem to be doing you much good.

Apparently the 2nd amendment is sacrosanct, but the 4th is disposable. I wonder which one will be next?

about 3 months ago

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