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How Big Data Is Destroying the US Healthcare System

MMORG Re:What a load of BS (507 comments)

The fact that a majority of Americans get no-questions-asked health insurance through their employers is exactly the problem and why we can't implement a sane system like the rest of the civilized world. Too many people think it's just fine the way it is.

And it is "just fine", until you decide you want to become self-employed and start your own business. Then all of a sudden, oops, you have a pre-existing condition? Sorry, no insurance for you. Or maybe you get laid off from work and can't find another job for a long time (hello, recession!). Sorry, no insurance for you. Or you're young and the only thing you qualify for is an entry-level job that doesn't offer health insurance as an employee benefit. Sorry, no insurance for you.

People who've worked stereotypical job-with-healthcare-benefits all their life can't fathom what it's like to not be in that position. And most importantly, they don't have a good understanding of how easily they could lose their nice job, along with their health insurance, in an instant and through no fault of their own.

The only reasonable health insurance system is to put absolutely everyone in in the same risk pool from birth until death. Anything else ends in having to tell some people, "Well, better hope you die quickly."

about 10 months ago
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Neil deGrasse Tyson On How To Stop a Meteor Hitting the Earth

MMORG Re:Gravity is a poor tractor beam (520 comments)

This stuff exceeds our ability to reason about it in a common-sense way. The energy contained in a 10-km asteroid is so large that it doesn't matter if you spread it out over 1000 1-km chunks or not - either way the Earth is not going to be habitable for a very long time. Even if all the pieces are so small that none reach the surface, all of that energy is just turned into a heat flash, shock wave, and ends up dumped into the atmosphere. The Earth's surface would be pretty much slagged regardless. It completely overwhelms the atmosphere's ability to act as a heat sink. It's kind of like arguing about whether it's better to be wearing a t-shirt or being shirtless when being shot by a shotgun. Doesn't make any practical difference either way.

about a year and a half ago
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Neil deGrasse Tyson On How To Stop a Meteor Hitting the Earth

MMORG Re:Gravity is a poor tractor beam (520 comments)

The difficulty with this sort of problem is that the magnitudes involved are so ridiculously outside our realm of experience that we simply cannot reason about it in a "common sense" sort of way. If we're talking about something in the range of an extinction-level asteroid (which is what the original article was about), then no, spreading out the mass won't make any practical difference in terms of our ability to continue living here (assuming that most of it still hits the atmosphere). The mass of the asteroid contains X amount of kinetic energy and will contain that same amount regardless of whether its in one piece or thousands of pieces. Our common-sense reasoning says that lots of small pieces will spread out the energy load and the atmosphere is such a gigantic heat sink that it would be able to safely absorb it, but in the case of an extinction-level event we're talking about so much energy that it doesn't much matter how much it's spread out - it's still more than enough to instantly fry the entire impact side of the planet. The heat flash and shock wave of a distributed impact (even if spread out over several minutes or even hours) would completely immolate the surface of one half of the planet. Nothing would be left standing at all. The temperature of the entire atmosphere would jump by several hundreds of degrees. The non-impact side wouldn't fare much better since the effects from the impact side would spread globally within a few hours. Sure, the Earth's crust would remain more or less intact but there wouldn't be anyone living here anymore.

about a year and a half ago
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Dirigible Airship Prototype Approaches Completion

MMORG Non-renewable resource (231 comments)

Helium is a non-renewable resource, even more so than liquid hydrocarbon fuels. At least with jet fuel you could synthesize it if you really wanted to and had a large enough energy input, but the only way to synthesize helium is to fuse hydrogen in large quantities and if we knew how to do that in a controllable fashion we probably wouldn't need to mess around with dirigibles. Once you extract helium from the ground it eventually ends up in the atmosphere and then escapes to space, so once it's gone it's gone for good.

about a year and a half ago
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Boeing's CHAMP Missile Uses Radio Waves To Remotely Disable PCs

MMORG Pandora's Box (341 comments)

I love how the U.S. military keeps inventing weapon systems that are far more effectively used against us than against the sorts of enemies we face these days. Sure, we get a few year's worth of lead time where we're the only one in possession of the new toys but once it's been invented, it's just a matter of time until everyone has it. Tell, me, who has more to lose from the wide availability of this sort of missile system? The people with the heaviest reliance on computers, of course. Same goes for Stuxnet, of course, except that was even worse because that weapon system delivers its own blueprint. Thanks, guys.

about 2 years ago
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Ask Slashdot: How Does Your Company Evaluate Your Performance?

MMORG Re:Worst System Except for all the Others (525 comments)

I worked at Microsoft for 18 years (up to 2011) and had a good mix of both IC and manager time.

The first thing you're missing is that the review system has been tweaked a few times since you left and it's worse now than it's ever been. Now the numeric system is 1 to 5 (1 is high, 5 is low), integers only, and all five numbers are used and have quotas. As of last year when I left, the very bottom review rating of 5 (equivalent in meaning to the 2.5 in the system you're familiar with) now has an enforced 10% quota. Yes, every year 10% of the work force gets a review score that devestates their career and puts them in serious danger of being fired. No, it doesn't matter how well those 10% did in absolute terms.

Secondly, I hear often hear people say, "But the curve isn't applied at the small team level; only at the large org level." That's only a semantic distinction. Sure, a front-line manager with 10 ICs isn't required to pick one person to recieve a 5. But he is required to stack rank all 10 people and send that up the chain with his recommended ratings, and those recommendations get normalized and tweaked to fit the curve at higher levels and sent back down again. So the manager might say, "My team did a kick-ass job this year, everyone did well, so I recommend that even my bottom person get nothing less than a 3." But when it goes up the chain, gets squeezed into the model, and comes back down, that bottom person may well now have a 5 and there's nothing the manager can do about it. The only thing he can do is go to that person and tell him, "Better pack your bags because you're screwed with a capital F." The entire system is random and non-deterministic.

Third, I agree that performance reviews are hard and anything we have to choose from sucks in some way (at least those systems that can scale to large companies). But Microsoft's system generates a certain set of unintended consequences that are horrifically corrosive and have rotted the company from the inside out. The most obvious unintended consequence is what you said - it's not enough to just do good work, you have to be seen doing it. It turns out that the smart thing to do is weight your efforts more toward the "be seen" part and less toward the "do work" part, to the extent that many people spend essentially all of their time "being seen" and almost none of their time doing actual product work. Over time those people tend to be rewarded disproportionately and the entire management chain ends up filled with people who's core strength is managing other's perceptions rather than doing great engineering. There are many other unintended consequences and I could fill a book talking about all of them, but suffice to say that it's slowly but surely killing the company.

more than 2 years ago
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Downloads of DoS Attack Tool LOIC Spike

MMORG Re:Fight the power, Anon! (267 comments)

Um, ok then . . . carry on with your DDoS, I guess. Cause, yeah, that'll show 'em.

more than 2 years ago
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Downloads of DoS Attack Tool LOIC Spike

MMORG Re:Fight the power, Anon! (267 comments)

Well, let's see. We just got done with a well-constructed, well-reasoned, well-executed protest against SOPA and PIPA, and we killed those bills dead as a *direct result*. When was the last time a DDoS did *anything* other than harden the resolve of the party being attacked? How do they think the MPAA et al will react? "Oh my goodness, some script kiddies are DDoSing our web site. Quick, release the MegaUpload people from jail and turn their servers back on! It's our only hope!"

more than 2 years ago
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Low-Latency Network Shaves Milliseconds from UK-Asia Traffic

MMORG Putting those neutrinos to work! (157 comments)

Putting those FTL neutrinos to work, eh? Good job on the time-to-market, guys!

more than 2 years ago
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Study Suggests Magnets Can Force You to Tell the Truth

MMORG Re:Alas, poor Dualism, I knew they well (320 comments)

In that case our legal system will simply have to move away from the idea that prison is a punishment for wrongdoing to the idea that prison is a holding place for defectives. At the end of the day it doesn't really matter if you *chose* to murder that person, or if your brain chemistry led you inexorably to murder that person and there was nothing you could do about it. The fact is that we don't want to let people with a propensity for murdering people run around loose in society, so either way you need to be removed from society.

In fact, in the absence of the idea of free will, it makes a lot of sense to not have graduated prison sentences (punishment fitting the crime) at all and just go to a system of one-strike-and-you're-put-away-for-life. If you're demonstrably defective and your brain chemistry can't allow you to behave in a socially acceptable way, then you need to be locked up. And if you're defective then there's really no sense in ever letting you out again, is there? It's not like a a prison sentence is going to teach you not to mis-behave; your initial defense was that you had no choice about your actions in the first place.

Of course, what we're actually *likely* to get in real life is the worst parts of both philosophies - the idea that only people who made free-will choices to be evil can be punished/penalized/incarcerated, but no one is capable of free-will choices (we're all at the mercy of our chemical makeup), therefore no action is ever taken to deter or prevent anti-social behavior.

more than 2 years ago
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Solar Company Folds After $0.5B In Subsidies

MMORG Re:Stop (694 comments)

Well, I've got plenty right now. I suppose I could use some more, though. I might be willing to pay a penny for a cubic mile. How much do you have?

Spoken like someone who doesn't live downwind of a coal-fired power plant.

I'll tell you how much clean air I've got: roughly 142 billion cubic miles of atmosphere on our planet, depending on your definition of "clean" and assuming you're willing to push the definition of "atmosphere" all the way up to 620 miles. You put the current value of the entirety of Earth's atmosphere at $1.4 billion dollars? And you figure your children will value the entire atmosphere at $1.4 million dollars?

Of course talking about the atmosphere in terms of volume is a little strange because the density varies so much. Say we want to talk about *useful* atmosphere up to about 50,000 feet or so (I'm feeling generous). In that case I've got about 1 billion cubic miles to sell you, which you value at $10 million dollars right now or at $10 thousand dollars (!) in the future.

Yeah, that's the thing about stuff like "clean air": it seems like it's infinite and free . . . until it's not and it's gone. Then it costs a hell of a lot more fix it than it would have to save it in the first place.

I agree that things like subsidies aren't straightforward, and no, I'm not excited about wealth transfers either. But our fossil-fuel energy sources have *huge* problems with externalized costs that aren't being paid by the people consuming the energy, and that's a problem that needs to be addressed in one way or another.

Yes, air quality is generally better now than it was 50 years ago (in first-world countries, anyway), but that didn't happen magically or accidentally. That happened almost entirely due to the sort of government regulations and policies that conservatives and libertarians deride (not to make assumptions about your political leanings). It sure as hell didn't happen out of the goodness of any corporation's heart - pollution is an external cost, remember?

more than 2 years ago
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Massive Diamond Found Orbiting Pulsar

MMORG This isn't diamond the way you're thinking (204 comments)

This isn't diamond in any sense that we usualy think of it. Yes, it's carbon atoms, and yes, they're "crystallized", but the core of a white dwarf is composed mostly of electron-degnerate matter where all of the electrons have been disassociated from their parent atoms and all the nuclei clump together, floating in a sea of electrons. This stuff has a density of roughly 1000 kilograms (2,200 lbs) per cubic centimeter. I imagine it would *catastrophically* decompress if you could teleport a chunk of it back to earth. It's not diamond.

about 3 years ago
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AP Files FOIA Request For Bin Laden Photos

MMORG Re:stupid (518 comments)

Except that if you're skeptical of the government on this one, then a picture of a corpse won't help your skepticism one little bit, or at least it shouldn't. Thanks to Photoshop, the days of photos being reliable evidence are long gone. Really, anyone who seriously suspects that the government just made up the whole story to look good will be satisfied by nothing less than the opportunity to do their own DNA tests on the body, which according to the government isn't possible.

Ultimately, the proof will be if OBL shows up alive and well in the future or not. If he's not dead, I'm sure he'll be more than willing to announce the fact. If he doesn't pull a Mark Twain then he's obviously indisposed somewhere and in that case Occam's Razor kind of leads us to believe that it went down more or less the way the government says it did, rather than looking for crazy conspiracy theories.

more than 3 years ago
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Game Developer Group Warns Against Amazon Appstore

MMORG Re:Basic business understanding failure (142 comments)

All that has to happen is a developer doesn't give away the game and this never happens. I don't see the problem here at all. I should also mention that I have noticed huge numbers of apps that go on sale at a discount when first released then a few weeks later the price goes up. So I'm not sure I even see their point here at all when it seems this is an industry standard.

I think you didn't read the article carefully enough. The point is that that the developer surrenders essentially all control over their own pricing when they put something in the Amazon store. Amazon can just unilaterally tell you, "Oh, by the way, we're giving away your app this month. Don't like it? Tough." Now, yes, Amazon still has to give you a little bit of money in that case, but the definition of "a little bit" is pretty darn small: 20% of the list price, where the list price *must* be the lowest price you've ever sold your content at, ever, anywhere.

The point isn't that Amazon might engage in volume-based pricing strategies. Yes, times are changing and old retailing strategies don't always work. The point is that when you put your app in the Amazon store you surrender any ability to make your own decisions about your pricing strategy. Instead you hand your pricing strategy to another party who has very different goals than you do and will likely choose a pricing strategy that will optimize for their goals, not for your goals. If you're ok with that, then fine. But be aware of what's going to happen.

more than 3 years ago
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Game Developer Group Warns Against Amazon Appstore

MMORG Re:Hold up a sec.... (142 comments)

The point isn't that Amazon will be battling competitors for marketshare. The point is that the terms of the Amazon store allow them to price *a developer's content* in a way that helps Amazon capture marketshare while simultaneously screwing the developer's revenue. The developer has to surrender any control over their own pricing. You just trust that Amazon will price your content in a way that ends up benefiting you, but the IGDA is pointing out that Amazon has little incentive to manipulate prices in a manner beneficial to the developer and every incentive to manipulate prices in a manner beneficial to Amazon, and the two aren't at all the same thing. Read the article.

more than 3 years ago
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Google Fires Back About Search Engine Spam

MMORG Believing their own press (270 comments)

See, this is where Google goes off the rails and starts to believe its own press. Cutts said, in effect, "Our search engine tells us that our search engine is doing just fine." Yeah, well, ultimately Google's search engine isn't the center of the universe and the ultimate authority on everything. The users are. If the users say that the quality of search results are going down, then they're going down. Period. Google better figure out how to change their evaluation metrics to reflect what users are seeing rather than attempt to change user's opinions to match what their evaluation metrics say.

more than 3 years ago
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Pac-Man's Ghost Behavior Algorithms

MMORG Re:Always fascinating. (194 comments)

In other words they are retarded, which is good because there are four of them and they'd box the player in in about 10 seconds if they weren't.

Yes. There's this persistent myth that smart game AI is hard to build. It's not. A really smart, impossible-to-beat game AI is easy to build (for most types of games). What's hard to build is a sort-of-smart-but-often-fallible AI that's just competent enough that it makes you feel like you're accomplishing something worthwhile when you finally beat it. For extra bonus hardness points you can try building an AI that makes the same kind of sub-optimal choices that a human would make so that it feels "alive". That's hard to do.

Game AIs have all kinds of advantages that make it easy (again, for most types of games) to build them to be unbeatable. They have always have instant reaction time, they can consider a large number of disparate data streams simultaneously, they always have perfect knowledge of their environment, they can have vast libraries of pre-computed decision trees, and their accuracy in moving, aiming, etc is limited only by the precision of floating-point data types. (An aside: the reason why real-world robotics is so hard is largely because real-world robots have really terrible knowledge of their environment, unlike game AIs.) The trick to writing a top-quality game AI is to figure out how to degrade and handicap all of those advantages in ways that leave them beatable while not leaving them looking stupid.

more than 3 years ago
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Google Introduces, Then Scraps, Bing-Style Background Images

MMORG Re:How clever of them... (466 comments)

I'm not sure that the reaction we saw today clearly says that people don't like Bing's style. It says that people are used to Google's style and don't like change. It's quite possible that many of the same people who ranted about the Google homepage change would not find Bing's homepage offensive at all, because they have no preconceived notions about what it should look like.

That's the price of becoming a verb in the language: you no longer own your own product.

(Plus, honestly, Google's attempt at a picture background simply looked bad compared to Bing's implementation.)

more than 4 years ago

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