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Cause of Global Warming 'Hiatus' Found Deep In the Atlantic

Namarrgon Re:Every week there's a new explanation of the hia (358 comments)

Well, if everyone could see it, it wouldn't be a study lol

The novel part is they present data to confirm it, and their analysis is peer-reviewed - that's the difference between a real study and something that "everyone can see".

What I was actually referring to was the models being incomplete, which isn't news to anyone. Fyfe et al 2013 just demonstrate this, and suggest some of the likely missing factors. TFA goes further, and gives data on a new factor (the deep-ocean current).

yesterday
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Cause of Global Warming 'Hiatus' Found Deep In the Atlantic

Namarrgon Re:Every week there's a new explanation of the hia (358 comments)

If this paper were to turn out to be correct, current climate models are useless and will need to be completely reworked.

No model, in any branch of science or engineering, is complete and perfect; that doesn't mean they're useless.

I'm curious to see which fundamental assumptions made by current models you believe to be contradicted by this paper. To me it looks like they're simply pointing out a deep-ocean cycle that could soak up heat from the surface - not unlike the well-known ENSO, PDO and AMO cycles, which most models don't attempt to predict. Unless you think that "incomplete" means "fundamentally assumes that no other factors can exist"?

yesterday
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Cause of Global Warming 'Hiatus' Found Deep In the Atlantic

Namarrgon Re:Every week there's a new explanation of the hia (358 comments)

Your linked study really just shows what everyone could already see - the climate models are missing something. This of course isn't a surprise; they're missing lots of things, many of which are called out in the study (ENSO, AMO, volcanic activity, unexpected stratospheric aerosol variation or solar variation, etc). There's a lot of details we can't predict, but climate models are still useful even when we know they're incomplete, just like every other kind of model.

Still, I appreciate the link, even if (as you say) it doesn't invalidate any "sketchy science".

yesterday
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Cause of Global Warming 'Hiatus' Found Deep In the Atlantic

Namarrgon Re:Every week there's a new explanation of the hia (358 comments)

Do enlighten us - please link to an example of "sketchy science" that has been proved wrong by more solid, peer-reviewed science.

Strangely, all the examples I can find just support the consensus view.

yesterday
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The Cost of Caring For Elderly Nuclear Plants Expected To Rise

Namarrgon Re: Elderly Nuclear Plants? (246 comments)

Only if you're in a nuclear family.

4 days ago
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Why the "NASA Tested Space Drive" Is Bad Science

Namarrgon Re:Space Drive or Global Warming? (315 comments)

It's worth noting that Roger Shawyer (the original inventor) maintains that this effect does not violate Conservation of Momentum.

about two weeks ago
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Why the "NASA Tested Space Drive" Is Bad Science

Namarrgon Re:Space Drive or Global Warming? (315 comments)

The verification is crucial though. What happens when two scientists claim they can verify a hypothesis, and two thousand scientists say they cannot?

Either two thousand scientists have screwed up badly, or just two have. Which is more likely? Lacking the skills, time & equipment to verify it yourself, who are you going to believe?

A single person can come up with a major paradigm shift that overturns our old models - but not when their results can't be reliably verified, and certainly not when their claims require simply ignoring decades of observations to the contrary.

about two weeks ago
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Old Apache Code At Root of Android FakeID Mess

Namarrgon Re: Impossible. (127 comments)

Luckily, it's entirely because they have been "taking android back" that they've been able to issue a (closed-source) Play Services response to the threat so quickly, to all Google-using android phones regardless of carrier.

about three weeks ago
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Old Apache Code At Root of Android FakeID Mess

Namarrgon Play Services (127 comments)

If you have any of Google's apps installed, you'll also have Play Services installed - and this has already been updated to detect attempts to use the specific vulnerable certificates involved. If you only get your apps from the Play Store, you're fine, as they've already all been scanned (and no exploit attempts detected). Even if you sideload, so long as you left the Verify Apps checkbox on (default setting), then Play Services will scan any sideloaded apps too (no exploit attempts have been detected that way either).

While the vulnerability is a serious one, it's not something that will concern the vast majority of Google's Android users. It's probably a lot more significant for companies like Amazon, who will have to develop their own response, and (inevitably) for all those millions of Chinese users of generic non-Google Android derivatives.

about three weeks ago
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Lawrence Krauss: Congress Is Trying To Defund Scientists At Energy Department

Namarrgon Citation please (342 comments)

The only people claiming the carbon tax wasn't working were Coalition politicians (and their apologists), and the companies who didn't want to have to cover the external costs of their businesses. Fact is, it was starting to work quite well, despite the damping effect of Abbott attacking it with all the FUD he could muster.

And now we have economists scratching their heads as to why a conservative government would attack a market-based climate solution while favouring a big direct-action spending program instead:

Roger Jones, a Research Fellow at the Victoria Institute of Strategic Economic Studies, called the repeal "the perfect storm of stupidity".

"It's hard to imagine a more effective combination of poor reasoning and bad policy making," he said.

"A complete disregard of the science of climate change and its impacts. Bad economics and mistrust of market forces."

about a month ago
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Apple Agrees To $450 Million Ebook Antitrust Settlement

Namarrgon Re:Fanbois (91 comments)

I'm curious as to where you read that. My understanding is that book prices rose, by 30-50%.

about a month ago
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FBI Concerned About Criminals Using Driverless Cars

Namarrgon Re:Less. (435 comments)

What part of this can't be done just as well by a human, today? The "follows all the laws" part?

Pretty sure that handovers of stolen goods/drugs/whatever to different vehicles with different drivers already occur.

about a month ago
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Apple Agrees To $450 Million Ebook Antitrust Settlement

Namarrgon Re:Fanbois (91 comments)

Sadly for you, the "facts" are on Amazon's side here. Apple was being legally outcompeted, and resorting to illegal collusion needs to be smacked down, regardless of how much they hated seeing their potential marketshare slipping away. Maybe they should have tried to compete by lowering prices further, rather than raising them? Would be a better outcome for consumers.

about a month ago
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Harvesting Energy From Humidity

Namarrgon Re:uhh yeah they do... (89 comments)

You'll need a much larger panel than 50cm to charge it that fast. And sunlight. This device should work day & night, regardless of weather.

about a month ago
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How Often Do Economists Commit Misconduct?

Namarrgon Academics? (305 comments)

If 94% of academic economists have fudged things to make their papers look better - what about commercial economists, where they have a stronger financial incentive? What about political economists?

At first I was worried - but then I realised their trust level is already slightly below that of lawyers.

about 2 months ago
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Researchers Claim Wind Turbine Energy Payback In Less Than a Year

Namarrgon Re:WUWT (441 comments)

You hardly will find a company putting a 'capacity factor' to the specs of his model.

Maybe you should look at the link I posted. There's one right there.

Perhaps they have a slightly different definition to you?

about 2 months ago
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Researchers Claim Wind Turbine Energy Payback In Less Than a Year

Namarrgon Re:WUWT (441 comments)

While 35% is definitely possible, I think it's probably above average. I doubt that most wind farms achieve that.

It's not clear where your claim comes from either. It's not like you can just say, "I think [35% is] probably above average. I doubt that most wind farms achieve that."

Googling it, average wind farm capacity factor seem to be around 27-40%, depending on turbine, location etc. Newer model turbines like the GE 1.6-100 claim over 50% CF thanks to design improvements.

about 2 months ago
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NOAA: Earth Smashed A Record For Heat In May 2014, Effects To Worsen

Namarrgon Re:It's hard to keep the stories straight these da (547 comments)

This is the same guy that denies the link between passive smoking and cancer, and that asbestos is dangerous. I should introduce him to my friend with mesothelioma. He certainly can't be relied on for the facts.

about 2 months ago
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NOAA: Earth Smashed A Record For Heat In May 2014, Effects To Worsen

Namarrgon Re:not a record (547 comments)

Nope. There are still a number of "skeptics" claiming that the earth is not warming, and most scientists believe we can still avoid the worst of the warming yet to come (though some significant warming is now inevitable). Also, most economic studies of climate impact & mitigation (e.g. the Stern Review) have concluded that it will be much cheaper to mitigate CO2 emissions ASAP and avoid the costs of adaption.

about 2 months ago
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NOAA: Earth Smashed A Record For Heat In May 2014, Effects To Worsen

Namarrgon Citation please (547 comments)

Depends which temperature proxy you look at, but on average, nope.

Of course there may have been warmer days in the "recent" past, but we have no records of that, so the article's claim stands. And your claim requires ignoring most of the various proxy reconstructions that have been done, so it doesn't hold up either.

about 2 months ago

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