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Comments

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Oracle Deflects Blame For Troubled Oregon Health Care Site

TapeCutter Re:Enh as much as I dislike Oracle... (149 comments)

What the GP is suggesting is that Oracle the company (as opposed to the individual consultants) should have walked away from a taxpayer funded money pit but chose to continue "taking candy from a baby". Other's have walked away from similar disasters in the past in very public fashion, IBM walked away from a $800M project in NZ in the late 90's and Fujitsu walked away from a $1B project in the UK a few years ago, both claimed to be happy with the profit levels but were unwilling to continue because the government were unwilling/unable to follow their project management advice, making it impossible for them to deliver. Multinationals do not want to be seen as being unable to deliver a government contract, government work is their bread and butter and in politics reputations matter. Oracle didn't take the "high road" when their own consultants were predicting disaster, now they are getting public blowback from the client, which is why their PR department has fired up on this issue.

OTOH Oracle (as their PR points out) were not managing the project they were on a time and materials contract, which most people in the industry would understand as meaning "we will give you what you ask for, but don't blame us if it is not what you want". The client obviously wasn't listening to the "don't blame us" part when they signed the contract.

6 hours ago
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Oracle Deflects Blame For Troubled Oregon Health Care Site

TapeCutter Re:Enh as much as I dislike Oracle... (149 comments)

Exactly, if Oracle were contracted on T&M then they were simply acting as an (expensive) body shop, ie they supply the bodies to the client, the client tells the body what to do. Basically Oracle takes $3 from the client, pays the body $1, and pocket's the difference. T&M on a project such as this is a cash cow for the vendor, it can only work in the client's favour if the client knows what they are doing.

Disclaimer: Having been a body for other multinationals on similar projects, the $3:1 ratio is an educated guess.

7 hours ago
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Study Finds US Is an Oligarchy, Not a Democracy

TapeCutter Re:Are you kidding (780 comments)

I grew up in the 60's, all parents behaved like that (and worse), also teachers could smack you around if you looked at them in the wrong way. In grade 5 a five foot - zero female teacher whacked me so hard she broke a yard long blackboard ruler over my backside, in front of the class. This was in semi-rural Australia but "Spare the rod, spoil the child" was a universal truth in western society, everyday 1960's discipline was clearly child abuse by today's standards but I'm not aggrieved by it, it was just something everyone accepted as a "fact of life". Sticking with the old ways is the very definition of "conservative", blind faith that "the old way is always the best way" is just nostalgia playing tricks on your mind.

Disclaimer: I have 3 grandkids, 5 and under, I was an average, imperfect parent but I rarely smacked my kids when the were growing up. My youngest daughter is a better parent than I ever was, which is the way it should be. :)

2 days ago
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Your StarCraft II Potential Peaked At Age 24

TapeCutter The older I get, the better I once was. (100 comments)

I'm 55, I played my first video game of arcade Pong in 1970 and still play video games regularly today. It's not injury that reduces performance, it's age. My 25yr old self had less fat, more muscle, faster reflexes, a steadier hand, sharper eyesight, better hearing, etc, etc. Consequently my younger me was faster (but not nesissarily better) at just about everything. Age related injury is responsible for things like the fact I'm no longer able to kneel on a hard floor.

2 days ago
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How Does Heartbleed Alter the 'Open Source Is Safer' Discussion?

TapeCutter Re:Even a bestselling novel can have a typo (579 comments)

Sophisticated and knowledgeable eyes don't go trawling trough code looking for bugs, they test the functionality of the binary. They only turn to the code to explain/fix what they have found.

2 days ago
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Climate Scientist: Climate Engineering Might Be the Answer To Warming

TapeCutter Re:Maybe if Clinton... (341 comments)

Hind sight is always 20/20, nuclear is NOT the answer, neither are wind or solar, in fact no technology can replace coal by itself but they are perfectly capable of doing it in combination. The US has turned to gas in a big way, that's not the answer either, it is a small improvement on emissions but the extraction methods may be poisoning the groundwater. IMO "the answer" is a well managed "net metering" grid with a diverse range of (locally tuned) generation methods in a "polluter pays" market.

Note that the "base load" argument from the coal industry (and some nuclear zealots) is utter nonsense aimed a people's ignorance, coal has always relied on other technologies to keep the lights on. The demand curve of a city is not flat, to match it coal requires hydro to store energy when the plant exceeds demand, and fast switching gas turbines to compensate when "stored hydro + base load" is not enough. Also a coal plant will be down for 2 months a year for maintenance, meaning to get the full output of 6 plants you need to build and operate 7. Solar has a fantastic advantage in summer since air-conditioning is the drain, not much good in winter when the air conditioner goes into reverse.

Many people will be able to see all this clearly manifest itself in their electricity bill as peak/off-peak rates.

3 days ago
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Climate Scientist: Climate Engineering Might Be the Answer To Warming

TapeCutter Re:the 70's called (341 comments)

Citation needed.

3 days ago
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Climate Scientist: Climate Engineering Might Be the Answer To Warming

TapeCutter Re:nuclear power means unintended geoengineering (341 comments)

Quote from the link - "It is notable that the U.S. death rates for coal are so much lower than for China, strictly a result of regulation and the Clean Air Act (Scott et al., 2005). It is also notable that the Clean Air Act is one of the most life-saving pieces of legislation ever adopted by any country in history. Still, about 10,000 die from coal use in the U.S. each year, and another thousand from natural gas. Hydro is dominated by a few rare large dam failures like Banqiao in China in 1976 which killed about 171,000 people. Workers still regularly fall off wind turbines during maintenance but since relatively little electricity production comes from wind, the totals deaths are small. Nuclear has the lowest deathprint, even with the worst-case Chernobyl numbers and Fukushima projections..."

3 days ago
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Jenny McCarthy: "I Am Not Anti-Vaccine'"

TapeCutter Re:Why do people listen to her? (584 comments)

The claims themselves come from a single medical paper published in the late 90's that was eventually proven beyond reasonable doubt to have been a deliberate fraud. The reason for the fraud was to promote a competing vaccine by sowing doubt in the saftey of the existing vaccine formula. Jenny IS the (minor, soft porn) celebrity whoring her intelectual honesty for attention and profit.

4 days ago
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Is Germany Raising a Generation of Illiterates?

TapeCutter Re:u can rite any way u want (431 comments)

It is the age old battle between generations.

Not really, I'm a grandfather of three, I was taught english in primary school using a "do what you want" method similar to that described in TFA. I was sent straight to the "English for dummies" class in HS where they still failed miserably to teach me the difference between an noun and a verb. It was not until I applied for a university place at age 29 that I realised just how bad my english was, since that time I have improved dramatically. How? - Spell and grammar checkers, and the need to write a lot more than I did before going to university. Having said that, old habits die hard and I still sometimes conflate their/they're, your/you're, its/it's, etc. IMO kids who are taught with this method will be educationally handicapped and may not even realise they have a handicap until they are well into adulthood.

What people do not realized is that they have moved from the younger generation and become the older.

As soon as I wake in the morning my bones remind me I'm well past the half way mark.

4 days ago
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Private Keys Stolen Within Hours From Heartbleed OpenSSL Site

TapeCutter Re:There is more where that came from (151 comments)

OpenSSL has is own memory manager that sits on top of malloc(), why I'm not sure?

4 days ago
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Ask Slashdot: Are You Apocalypse-Useful?

TapeCutter Re:Medical doctor (730 comments)

You don't even need diodes because there is a rectifier

IIRC a rectifier is made from four diodes arranged in a square.

4 days ago
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IRS Misses XP Deadline, Pays Microsoft Millions For Patches

TapeCutter Re:Yes, but don't you agree there is abuse? (322 comments)

Yep, and by making their plans known MS allows it's customer's IT departments to plan. You can also bet that "MS partner" customers are pointing out which third party and in-house applications they want supported by, and tested with, new versions.

Five years and 9 months from now, Windows 7 users should pay more? Again?

If you expect them to keep servicing it then of course you should pay, and if you don't understand why then I'm assuming you have never been tasked with maintaining an active source tree in a commercial setting.

5 days ago
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NSA Allegedly Exploited Heartbleed

TapeCutter Re:Do it enough times (149 comments)

As well, if something this simple could cause such an issue then clearly it is an issue for lots of other important security programs.

Yes, it's one of the most common memory handling bugs and is known as a buffer overflow, generally buffer overflows are difficult to exploit which can be seen in the fact that nobody has actually demonstrated extracting a key using this particular bug, just that it is "possible" to do so. Winning the lottery is also "possible".

There's all sorts of complete bullshit about this bug in the press, to paraphrase what I read today in the WSJ that "It turns out that just 4 European developers and some guy in the US are responsible for the code that secures the internet", utter drivel!

attach to your target and do it as many times as you want

There's almost certainly more than one layer of security for anything juicy, for example, the delay enforced on posts from the same Slashdot account makes it difficult (but not impossible) to spam Slashdot comments.

about a week ago
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CSIRO Scientists' Aquaculture Holy Grail: Fish-Free Prawn Food

TapeCutter Re:Reliance (116 comments)

put CSIRO (whoever they may be) in a corner with Mosanto and the like.

Ten seconds on Google would have saved you from making a fool of yourself.

about a week ago
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Crowd Wisdom Better At Predictions Than Top CIA Analysts

TapeCutter Re:Bell Curve (136 comments)

Interesting, so why do "laymen" in the US keep electing zealots, crackpots, and "entrepreneurs" who are clearly lying to their face for fun and profit? Do you guys enjoy being treated with contempt?

about a week ago
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Crowd Wisdom Better At Predictions Than Top CIA Analysts

TapeCutter Re:Reminds me of the Policy Analysis Market (136 comments)

even if it couldn't have predicted the original flash point.

Funny you should say that, the diplomatic cable leaks showed that high level western diplomats in Syria were concerned about a civil war erupting due to the severe "fertile crescent" drought fuelling internal migration from rural areas to the cities (10% of Syria's total population simply abandoned their farms due to lack of water). The drought caused food prices to rise sharply and food riots became a regular occurrence in cities across the middle east and North Africa.

"flash point" - Have a look at why that protester set fire to himself in the public square and why it resonated so strongly across the Arab world, it wasn't because they all logged on to FB and suddenly realised their governments were tyrannical. Predicting this sort of social unrest is like predicting an earthquake in LA, you can be pretty confident that your prediction will come to pass but have no idea when.

about a week ago
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UN Report Reveals Odds of Being Murdered Country By Country

TapeCutter Re:shenanigans (386 comments)

They have a natural/God-given right to do so and no law passed by any number of people in the society can take away that right.

As I said it's a cultural thing, whether you believe it or not the vast majority of Aussies would strongly disagree with your statement as would the citizens of many (but not all) EU countries.

It may also surprise you that the laws here in Oz were promoted and enacted by John Howard who was the most conservative right wing prime minister we've had since the 60's. There is no discernible left/right divide over gun laws and socialised health in Oz, decades of surveys consistently report 80+% of the population support both initiatives (which is why the right wing embraced socialised health as a "God-given right" back in the 80's).

Disclaimer: A close relative of mine owned a hand gun collection of about 30 pieces under these laws for about 10yrs, he had a safe concreted into the floor, he had the cops knock and ask to look about 2-3 times in those 10yrs. None of this particularly bothered him, what caused him to sell his collection to a licensed dealer was his eldest son's heroine addiction.

Personally I don't see random inspections of private armouries as "tyranny" any more than I see random breath test as "tyranny", I actually see those two things as protecting MY right not to be killed/maimed by a drunk with a car/gun.

about a week ago

Submissions

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Scientific Heresy

TapeCutter TapeCutter writes  |  more than 3 years ago

TapeCutter (624760) writes "Gavin Schmidt from realclimate has published an excellent opinion piece on the narrative of the scientific heretic and it's appeal to journalists and the general public.

Quoth TFA — "This idea of knowledge sitting on a knife edge ready to flip whenever some new observation or insight arrives, is the reason why science is so exciting and fascinating. That is the reason why science deserves to be the story, and why journalists should be continuously searching for the 'front page' thought that will allow this story to be told to a wide audience. But all too often the real story is neglected in favour of a familiar well-worn, but inappropriate, trope.""

Link to Original Source
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Universe closer to heat death than once thought?

TapeCutter TapeCutter writes  |  more than 4 years ago

TapeCutter (624760) writes "In a paper soon to be published in the Astrophisical journal Australian researchers have estimated the entrophy of the universe is about 30 times higher than current estimates. For those of us who like their science in the form of a car analogy Dr. Lineweaver compared their results to a car's gas tank. He states, "It's a bit like looking at your gas gauge and saying `I thought I had half a gas tank, but I only have a quarter of a tank.""
Link to Original Source
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Does climate change affect bushfires?

TapeCutter TapeCutter writes  |  more than 5 years ago

TapeCutter (624760) writes "After the devastating firestorm in Australia, there has been a lot of speculation in the press about the role of climate change. For the 'pro' argument the BBC article points to reaseach by the CSIRO. For the 'con' argument they quote David Packham of Monash university who is not alone in thinking "...excluding prescribed burning and fuel management has led to the highest fuel concentrations we have ever had...". However the DSE's 2008 annual report states; "[The DSE] achieved a planned burning program of more than 156,000 hectares, the best result for more than a decade. The planned burning of forest undergrowth is by far the most powerful management tool available... ".

I drove through Kilmore on the evening of the firestorm and in my 50yrs of living with fire have never seen a smoke plume anything like it. It was reported to be 15km high and creating it's own lightning, there were also reports of car windscreens and engine blocks melting. So what was it that made such an unusual firestorm possible and will it happen again?"
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TapeCutter TapeCutter writes  |  more than 7 years ago

TapeCutter (624760) writes "A recent slashdot story reported on an article by the ex-editor of New Scientist, Nigel Calder. RealClimate have taken issue with what they call "bizarre calculus that takes evidence for solar forcing of climate as evidence against greenhouse gases for current climate change". They have posted a rebuttal to Calder's article that basically concludes: "No trend = no explanation for current changes".

It should also be noted that Calder's article ended with an advertisment for his new book "The Chilling Stars"."
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TapeCutter TapeCutter writes  |  more than 7 years ago

TapeCutter (624760) writes "M. Mann and co. over at RealClimate have started a disscussion analysing the contents of the recently released IPCC SPM. They intend to write a series of articles going over the report chapter by chapter and answer readers comments. So for the dwindling army of "skeptics" and those who want to know more, fire away, but please respect the "dinner coversation" atmosphere."
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TapeCutter TapeCutter writes  |  more than 7 years ago

TapeCutter (624760) writes " Australia's ABC reports — "The Nine Network is taking a small newcomer to court, alleging a breach of copyright for producing its own TV guide that allows people to record programs and watch them later. It's a case of David and Goliath." — Not so long ago ( before a certain free trade agreement ), Australians had the right to record TV for personal use and other "fair use rights", the laws have now been harmonised in accordance with the FTA. For those interested in Australian politics it will come as no surprise that Ruddock is handling the copyright angle in the government's current push for media reform."

Journals

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Continuation of climate disscussion with robinjo

TapeCutter TapeCutter writes  |  more than 3 years ago I've tried to answer you main points below, let me know if you think I missed anything.

Sea Levels:
Two years ago I bought a half a million dollar house that is a couple of hundred meters from the beach and a few meters above sea level. The beach is part of Port Philip Bay in Melbourne Australia, since I'm already in my 50's I figure I will be safe.
This is a good summary of expected sea level impacts.

Authoritive Names:
Chris Landsea: His science on Hurricanes simply didin't stand up to scutiny but rather than accept critisisim he quit. I'm not going to deny that scientists have an ego and that sometimes it gets in the way.
Freeman Dyson: Quote: "One of the main causes of warming is the increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere resulting from our burning of fossil fuels such as oil and coal and natural gas."

Why didn't Mann and Jones explain tree rings?:
Here is an article from M. Mann's website that talks about the CRU hack and the tree rings. I belive Jones became frustraed at having to reply to over 50 simultaneous FOI requests for data, (most of wich was available in the litrature), the people making the requests were not interested in science they were interested in obstructing his work. Burrying someone under FOI requests is a well known delaying tatic of political hacks. AFAIK Mann has not obstructed requests for data and does not work for the CRU.

Harry:
I have skimmed the infamous HARRY_README, I hold a degree in computer science and have been making a good living from software development for 20yrs now. To me it sounds like every programmer I have ever met when confronted with a large project. The stuff he is complaining about are errors from the raw data, this is exactly what Jones has spent his entire carrer trying to clean up.

The myriad of problems in the raw data actually don't make a very big difference to the end results. I'm sure you have heard of Anthony Watts and his claims about how the instrumental record is worse than useless. Well after ignoring the crank for quite some time NOAA shot his whole theory to pieces with a single experiment. They took 70 stations that Watts himself had rated as "good" or "best" and ran the same analysis on those stations as thay had had run on all 1200+ US stations, lo and behold the curves were vistually identical. There's a nice sarcastic video about it on youtube that Watts attempted to remove with a DCMA takedown notice (climate crock is actually a very infromative series and I highly recommend you watch a few of them). The same principle applies to the global record, you can pick 100 stations at random and a simple least squares fit will give you a trend very close to the more pedantic analysis of Jones, Mann and eveyone else. I know this because I've done it myself! If you want to try it these data links will help.

Artic Ice:
There is a big problem with the Arctic sea ice, here is a NASA video of the NSIDC data from my own youtube channel. Here is another climate crock video on the subject.

Confessions:
Your last paragraph is basically an unfounded ad-hom, the only IPCC error I am aware of that is trully an IPCC error is the Himalayan date. The error was not picked up by "skeptics" it was picked up by IPCC scientists and as soon as it was realised to be a problem the IPCC put a prominent link to a statement about it directly above the links to the reports on their website. I think you a vastly underestimating the efforts that have gone into the IPCC reports and the robustness of their process. I also think you are vastly overestimating the honesty of your sources whatever they may be.

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A promise kept

TapeCutter TapeCutter writes  |  more than 5 years ago This rather long entry is the delivery of a promise I made to slashbart when he asked me to read a paper by Nir Shaviv in this thread. I invite slashbart (Bart), his collegue Bas van Geel (Professor of Paleo-Ecology of the University of Amsterdam), or anyone else to comment but I ask that the conversation be kept civil as was the case in the linked thread.

To use Bart's words, Bart and Bas are "completely unconvinced about CO2 being such an important factor [in climate change]". There are quite a few good links in the thread but the main thrust of this post is centered around the Shaviv paper and the cosmic ray theory which Bart believes supports his stance, I will also take Bart to task over some other bits and pieces mentioned in the thread. But first of all let's state a few points I belive we have agreed on, the majority of which are based on Bart's words in the original thread.

1.The three of us are all genuine skeptics who belive the philosphy and practice of science trumps all other "ways of knowing" such as religion, intuition, etc. We believe that questioning our own assumptions and assertions is a crucial ingredient of any self respecting skeptic. Without this understanding there is no basis for reasoned debate and thus no point in debating.
2. Sugar in the petrol tank does not harm one's engine...
3.Climatologists have (correctly) discounted the change of TSI as the cause of the warm late 20th century.
4.Clouds and solar forcing have a "very low LOSU" as defined in the IPCC reports.
5.There are awfully complicated feedback mechanisms (plant growth, albedo changes, clouds, aerosols,...) ie: there is a low-very low LOSU of these feedbacks.
6.It's an excellent idea to start living more energy efficient lives, but we don't need to get all panicky, and we really shouldn't begin geo-engineering efforts when we really don't know what we're messing with. I further assume this includes our current uncontrolled geo-engineering in the form of GHG emmissions and other nastier chemicals which are relesed as a result of burning fossil fuels, in particular coal.
7.Science is not in the business of "proof" and is never "settled".
8.We all have scientific training and a keen interest in climate but none of us are climatologists. Bart is a Physicist, Bas is a Proffesor of paleo-ecology and I have a BSc with majors in computer science and operations research.
9.There exists what I call psuedo-skeptics, people who deliberatly misinform and mislead the public for political or financial gain in much the same way as tabacco companies did prior to the 1990's and for pretty much the same reason. None of us are psuedo-skeptics, none of us are totally immune from their carefully constructed bullshit. Andrew Bolt from Australia and George Will from the US are two fine examples of what a psuedo-skeptic is under my definition.
10.A large part of the IPCC work has to do with collecting climate change data, and not with the causes of that change. I agree in fact it is more than a large part your statement nicely sums up it's stated goals, of course that data is peer-revived to a very stringent criteria and the cases and likely effects from those papers goes into the SPM.

Bart, Bas, please activate your bullshit detectors if you have not already done so and I will breifly describe my understanding of (and problems with) the Shaviv paper, the cosmic ray theory and some related topics, please don't take anything I say as personal criticisim I am simply trying to appeal to your skepticisim and capacity for introspection. Why? - Because I think it is important to my grandchildren that scientifically minded people understand the issue of climate change to the best of their abilities and communicate their knowledge and understanding to the public as both Bart and I have done here on slashdot.

I read the paper quite dillegently but I admit I skimmed over the maths, it's no use going down to that level of detail because in all likelihood it is correct as most papers are if you accept their assumptions. So let's examine the assumptions. They make quite a few explicitly stated assumptions there is one thay make repeatedly that is at the heart of the matter ie: "that the CRF is indeed a climate driver".

They state this assumption even more strongly as: "We will not dwell here on the actual mechanism responsible for CRF link with cloud behavior. We will simply assume henceforth that this link exists, as supported by empirical and experimental data, even though it is still an issue of debate. This point has to be kept in mind since the conclusions we shall reach, will only be valid if this assumption is correct." (My emphasis).

Now as you have pointed out this effect has been observed in the laboratory and I am not disputing that. However in our intial debate you state: "I know about the laboratory scale effect of CO2. However, what is far from [certain] is how far this effect is actually influencing climate, because of the awfully complicated feedback mechanisms (plant growth, albedo changes, clouds, aerosols,...) ". Correct me if I'm wrong but this statement seems to indicate that a lab result is not enough because you think that in the real world other (agreed) problems make it impossible to apply the results from the lab. I think you need to look at that argument with some self-skeptical introspection, ie: why are you so willing to apply the (observed in the lab) cosmic ray effect to the 'real world' but dismiss the much more robust (observed in the lab) greenhouse effect in the 'real world'?

Let's get back to the basic assumption that is: "CRF is linked with cloud behavior". I had a quick look around for some cites of Shaviv's paper, those that I found were brief and unflattering A recent paper in Nature serves as an exapmple (more complete free version here ). A much better paper that directly tests Shaviv's basic assumption is titled Testing the proposed causal link between cosmic rays and cloud cover.

Papers that actually do some testing of Shaviv's assumption seem to be quite rare, (note I only have access to free pubs and abstracts on the net). However there is a plethora of papers that attempt to test and quantify the CO2 causal link in the real world such as the one I linked to above or this simplistic search

Let's move out a bit from examining the trees and look at the cosmic ray idea in more general terms. As I understand it basically goes something like this: The debateable link between cloud cover and cosmic rays says that an increase in CRF will create more (longer lasting?) clouds, clouds reflect the Sun's rays ( ie: higher albido ) and thus the Earth cools, I belive it has been refered to as the Iris effect. I checked out your claim of increased CRF over the last decade and it seems my assertion of no trend was (slightly) out of date although I was speaking of the pre-2000 ground based observations I did not state that clearly, here is the evidence at NASA

It basically says the Ulysees spacecraft has recorded a drop in solar wind, it is now 13% cooler and 20% less dense than a decade ago, this in turn means that it's ability to deflect the CRF been reduced and therefore a higher CRF should be observed on Earth (as you have claimed). It also goes on to say a 30% drop in the Sun's magnetic field strength has also been observed and that this further enhances the CRF reaching the Earth. This certainly is very interesting but I don't think it means what you think it does...

First of all the reduced solar wind should have some cooling effect, secondly according to the CR theory increased CRF should add to that cooling. However as I stated in the original debate the hottest 10yrs on record have all occurred within the last 12yrs, the evidence for this is found at the Hadley Center and is backed by the WMO and NASA amoung others. Ignoring the CRF for the moment the expected cooling from the reduced solar wind should by itself have been observed as a cooler Earth but since this is not the case it's lends some credence to my claim that the IPCC reports err on the side of caution (ie: they are conservative estimates).

Now in the original debate you dismissed M. Mann as being an activist. You also accused him of intolerance of opposing views with the line "You will not find information that disagrees with Michael Mann [at realclimate], unless he has managed to really stomp the counter arguments into the ground". This is simply false as I demontrated in the original debate and can be seen by actually reading any of his posts. Personally I would have thought stomping on counter arguments as I am doing here would be a good trait for a scientist and skeptic provided the boots you use avoid ad-homs and are intellectually honest.

ALL the IPCC reports are written soley by scientists and are generally accepted to represent the "best science available" on the issue, ie: they analogous to a text book written by 2500 scienists representing the vast majority of the world's scientific bodies who review all the litrature over a four year cycle. Your stated reason for dimmising the IPCC out of hand was "Also the politicised nature of the IPCC where its chairman calls Svensmark 'irresponsible' because his ideas don't fit in the consensus is insane, and thoroughly discredits its summary for policymakers."

I tend to agree with the chairman but not with the words you put in his mouth, I cannot see calling Svensmark 'irresponsible' discredits the entire IPCC or anyone else, a thorough stomping of Svensmark's CR ideas can be found at physicsworld. It's interesting to note that Svensmark decided to use a ghost authour to write his book "The Chilling Stars" in which he praises himself heavily in the third person.

I do not know why you choose to believe Svensmark and Shaviv or why you choose to dismiss the mountain of evidence collected by the IPCC and the large body of work that preceded them that streaches all the way back to Fourier in the early 1800's. There is certainly no scientific reason for that attitude and again I think you need to look at that with a healthy dose self-skeptical introspection.

The last major beef I have with our debate was your off-hand dissmisal of models with this comment: "As far as the modelling goes. I have built too many models to trust them when the basic science is not understood in detail. It's dead easy to model something that models the past, just put in enough parameters." First of all it's is not "dead easy" to reconstruct climate since you first have to get yourself tens of millions of dollars to buy the hardware as a number of institutions around the world have done, not the least of these is Japan's Earth Simulator.

Your comment seem to indicate you believe that this is all about twiddling statistcal parameters until it looks good, this is not the case and if that is how you build your numerical models I can tell you with a great deal certainty you are doing it wrong. I pointed to what I consider an exceptional demonstration of the power of these models in the original debate, if you did look at the site the fact of the matter is the computer you used to do so would have been impossible to build without the use of computer models. Again I think you need to look at your reasons for dismissing models that have proved their worth time and again in a vast array of endevours with a healthy dose self-skeptical introspection. One last tip: "G'day mate" means hello not goodbye.

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Cosmic Rays and Climate Change

TapeCutter TapeCutter writes  |  more than 7 years ago A recent slashdot story reported on an article by the ex-editor of New Scientist, Nigel Calder. RealClimate have taken issue with what they call "bizarre calculus that takes evidence for solar forcing of climate as evidence against greenhouse gases for current climate change". They have posted a rebuttal to Calder's article that basically concludes: "No trend = no explanation for current changes".

It should also be noted that Calder's article ended with an advertisment for his new book "The Chilling Stars".

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  • p
  • br
  • a
  • ol
  • ul
  • li
  • dl
  • dt
  • dd
  • em
  • strong
  • tt
  • blockquote
  • div
  • quote
  • ecode

"ecode" can be used for code snippets, for example:

<ecode>    while(1) { do_something(); } </ecode>
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