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Dialing Back the Alarm On Climate Change

Thugthrasher Re:In before (490 comments)

You know that models don't return 1 temperature, right? Looking at a chart like that tells you nothing about how accurate a model is. Models depend on a lot of inputs and, depending on what the inputs are, usually return a range for what they are forecasting. Usually, when talking about a model, there are multiple variations of inputs put in when trying to predict the future (as it's hard to know exactly what will happen). The proper way to validate a model is to take the original model, put in the actual data for the inputs and see if the predicted output matches the actual output. Just looking at a previously published paper tells you nothing unless you know that they correctly predicted the inputs.

THIS is how you test how accurate models actually are. The fact that you think that particular graph means all climate models are terrible (and the fact that you think it's a big deal that they tune models to fit past data, as that is the CORE of modeling in general) tells me all I need to know about how much you know about forecasting models. Which is obviously not much. (Note: my knowledge isn't about the specifics of climate change models, so I don't know exactly how much weight they put on various factors; my knowledge is about forecasting models in general and my specialty was population modeling).

about a year ago
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Dialing Back the Alarm On Climate Change

Thugthrasher Re:In before (490 comments)

There's a hypothesis, baked into models, which seems to be largely inaccurate if you compare the output of those models to actual reality.

You do realize that that is false, right? Last year, they did a comparison between what the 1990 IPCC models predicted and the actual change up to 2010. If you used actual emissions data and included the other actual climate-forcing data (volcanic eruptions, etc.), the model was very accurate in it's predictions at the 20 year mark. It's hard to judge the models since then, as there has not been as much time, but the models up to that point proved accurate. One can only assume that as our knowledge of climate has increased, our models are more accurate now.

about a year ago
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Should the Next 'Doctor Who' Be a Woman?

Thugthrasher Re:and how do you resolve the paradox (772 comments)

...to your limited human understanding. Seriously, bearing in mind that there are non-fictional species on Earth that can effectively change their reproductive systems within their own lifetimes, that's hardly the most imaginative, alien concept ever to pass through the canon of the Doctor.

Oh, I know this. That's why I accept it now that it's canon. It is just my opinion that it's a needless complication that doesn't provide much benefit. I'm not saying they are necessarily wrong for doing it or anything. I also don't think it necessarily brings down the quality of the show (unless they were to one day hire a terrible actress as the Doctor, but that could just as easily happen with males) It is just something I don't particularly like. Basically, I guess the best way to explain my feelings for it are that if I were in charge of the show, I would have considered the idea and rejected it. Doesn't make me like the show any less, really. It's a fine line, but I overanalyze things, anyway.

about a year ago
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Should the Next 'Doctor Who' Be a Woman?

Thugthrasher Re:Why does anyone like this show? (772 comments)

Actually, they have recently (I don't know if it was this regeneration or the last one) offered the role to a black actor. He turned them down, but it's not like they ignore black actors when they try to decide on the next Doctor.

about a year ago
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Should the Next 'Doctor Who' Be a Woman?

Thugthrasher Re:and how do you resolve the paradox (772 comments)

One of the few things Neil Gaiman has done that I don't like (it was his script, if I remember correctly, though I don't know if it was his idea to have that in there).

Don't get me wrong, now that it's there, I would accept a female Doctor, but up to that point there had been no indication that time lords ever changed sexes. With sex being a changeable characteristic, labels like "mother" and "father" get confusing and they've previously been used. What do you call a time lord who fathered you while he was male, but is now female? What if your birth mother is still female? Are they both mother? Are they both father? It just seems like it doesn't add all that much to the show except a level of confusion (it's not like there is a shortage of actors to play the part).

Of course, I realize this is all my opinion and, like I said, I would accept a female actor there, now that it has been established as canon. I just think it was a silly idea to establish it as canon.

about a year ago
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Orson Scott Card Pleads 'Tolerance' For Ender's Game Movie

Thugthrasher Re:Funny thing about polygamy (1448 comments)

Polyandry is still polygamy.

Polygamy - more than two partners, no matter the sexes
Polygyny - 1 man, multiple women
Polyandry - 1 woman, multiple men
I have no idea if there is a term for multiple men and multiple women that is more specific than polygamy.

about a year ago
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Disney's Titling Problem With Its Star Wars Movies

Thugthrasher Re:It did say Episode IV originally! (279 comments)

JFK was assassinated in 1963. Star Wars came out in 1977. I'm thinking that you are not remembering things correctly here.

about a year ago
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Ask Slashdot: Buying a Laptop That Doesn't Have Windows 8

Thugthrasher Re:Do you use the start menu often? (570 comments)

Shutting down and rebooting take all of 1 extra click, using the quickest ways to shut down (without creating your own shortcut) on both OSes.

about a year and a half ago
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Ask Slashdot: Buying a Laptop That Doesn't Have Windows 8

Thugthrasher Re:Do you use the start menu often? (570 comments)

I use a ton of applications. I use most of them side-by-side. Amazingly enough, I do it quite often with Windows 8. I used the Desktop, rather than the Start Screen. I don't go into the start screen. I even keep the most common applications that I use on the desktop of my right screen, so it doesn't even take me an extra click when I start up. For me, using Windows 8 is nearly identical to using Windows 7, with the main differences being that I have a taskbar on both my monitors and when I hit the Windows Key and start typing the name of an application I want to use (if it isn't on my taskbar), I have to look in the top left of the screen instead of the bottom left..

about a year and a half ago
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Xbox 720 Could Require Always-On Connection, Lock Out Used Games

Thugthrasher Re:Always on = !on (592 comments)

THAT'S a valid reason not to buy 720. What's NOT a valid reason is "My friend loaned me his console and COD game, so I bought a 360. That can't happen with the 720." Because that CAN happen with the 720. Loaning games to friends with another X-Box? Not happening. Loaning X-Box + games to friends who don't have one? Still can happen.

about a year and a half ago
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Microsoft Phases Out XNA and DirectX?

Thugthrasher Re:Use OpenGL instead (256 comments)

Rather than flexibility of PLATFORM, he probably meant flexibility in DESIGN. You can have a very flexible set of development tools that only work on XBOX and you can have a very rigid set of development tools that work on all platforms.

about a year and a half ago
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'Bankrupt' Australian Surgeon Sues Google For Auto-Complete

Thugthrasher Re:Well... (305 comments)

And if said X is you and you're running a daycare, your opinion wouldn't be as calm and neutral.

But that doesn't make his opinion wrong. Generally, the calm and neutral opinion is the correct one in situations like this.

about 2 years ago
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Ask Slashdot: Interviewing Your Boss?

Thugthrasher Re:PHB (219 comments)

Ask him if he knows what is a PHB

If he corrects your English, hire him.

Sorry, English is not my mother tongue. Care to correctly rephrase my sentence ? I first wrote it with "whether" instead of "if", but I think I would have needed to add "or not" at the end.

Since you seem to want to learn, I believe what you are trying to say is:
"Ask him if he knows what a PHB is." OR "Ask him whether or not he knows what a PHB is."

about 2 years ago
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Ask Slashdot: Interviewing Your Boss?

Thugthrasher Re:Details? (219 comments)

My guess is that it's like a position I've worked before. You have your IT guy who needs to know all the technical stuff and he, of course, has to have a boss (everyone has to have a supervisor except CEOs and people at very small businesses, that's just life). Now, this boss likely supervises multiple people and the IT guy is only one of them. In these cases, the boss doesn't need to know everything about IT, but he needs to know enough to adequately manage said IT guy.

Alternatively, this could be a situation like one my friend is in. He does web development and everyone else in his office is in sales. He helps out sometimes if they need computer help, but he mostly just does his web development (the main office actually handles most of the IT stuff, they are a satellite office). His boss (again, he has a boss, what a shocker) has to know enough about the tools he uses for web development to accurately judge his performance, have some idea of what is reasonably possible in a reasonable amount of time, and potentially hire my friend's replacement if he leaves. He doesn't have to be an expert, he just has to be familiar (or technically savvy enough to BECOME familiar).

about 2 years ago
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Ask Slashdot: Interviewing Your Boss?

Thugthrasher Re:you are crazy (219 comments)

That's just wrong. I have employees who would need to be in on the interview to replace me. They aren't qualified to do my job (you don't actually have to know statistics to be an IT Support Specialist, as an example...management is only a portion of my job), but they would A) need to be able to interact with the person who replaces me and B)need to be there to help confirm answers to any technical questions that get asked. My boss doesn't know enough to judge the answers to some of the questions someone in my position would need to know and he'd prefer to hire someone who knows what they are doing.

about 2 years ago
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US House Votes 397-0 To Oppose UN Control of the Internet

Thugthrasher Re:What a shock! (297 comments)

A government with a lot of power (although not unlimited) over the organization that has a lot of power (although not unlimited) over the internet has said they want to keep that power and not give it to OTHER governments. One of the reasons a lot of people support that is that, although this government has abused its power before, it has a history of abusing its power LESS than most other governments.

about 2 years ago
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US House Votes 397-0 To Oppose UN Control of the Internet

Thugthrasher Re:Republicans hate the UN (297 comments)

That wouldn't stop just because the UN had control.

about 2 years ago
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All of Nate Silver's State-Level Polling Predictions Proved True

Thugthrasher Re:Math (576 comments)

>This puts this 2.5% victory as the 6th smallest out of 14 elections

In other words, it's in the middle of the pack.

That's why I mentioned the rest of the numbers, so you could see why it was relatively small. If we had the numbers (1 2 3 4 5 6 1000 2000 4500 9000 10000 15000 15001 15002), then using your logic (that 6/14 is all that matters) the 6 would not be a relatively small member of that set. The other things (less than 50% of the next largest margin of victory, 32% of the average, 35% of the median) are what put it in context and allow you to see that it is relatively small.

about 2 years ago
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All of Nate Silver's State-Level Polling Predictions Proved True

Thugthrasher Re:Math (576 comments)

And....Obama won by 7.3% in 2004, Clinton won by 5.6% and 8.5%, GHWB won by 7.7%, Reagan won by 18.2% and 9.7%, and LBJ won by 22.6%. That covers every election since the earliest one you mentioned (Kennedy), to the most recent election. This puts this 2.5% victory as the 6th smallest out of 14 elections since that time and it is less than HALF the margin of victory of the next smallest election. It is also 32% of the average(7.87) and 39% of the median(6.42) since Kennedy. So, it is relatively rather small, even in modern elections. It's not small if you only count "modern" as since GWB, but if you go earlier than that, it is definitely rather small.

about 2 years ago
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US House Science Committee Member: Evolution Is a Lie From Hell

Thugthrasher Re:we need a litmus test (1113 comments)

Why am I so sure? Because it's happened before.

But remove the religious foundation and not only will the current generation of fuckers come crashing down, but there will be no place for the next one, either.

The trouble with this idea is that if you remove the religious foundation then the current generation of fuckers will come crashing down, sure, but the next generation will FIND a place. It doesn't have to be religion. It can be anything. The masses are stupid and the corrupt, power-hungry assholes will always find a way to take advantage of them. You assume that getting rid of religion will get rid of the corruption. All it will do is make those who want the power go a different route to get there. The classic example is Stalin.

about 2 years ago

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