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Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

denzacar Re:Dangerous virus (81 comments)

No, every number except for the world population and the final calculated number for mortality rate is from that WHO report.

About the same way that every letter is in the alphabet.

       

I used the numbers most favorable to producing a high mortality rate

No you didn't.

If we go with the lowest number of infected, 5%, and multiple it by the 7 billion on this planet, we have 350 million.

You used imaginary numbers for determining your supposed population, and you purposefully used lowest numbers which you've also imagined.
Those numbers are nowhere to be found in the WHO report.

THIS is what the report says. Again...

Influenza occurs globally with an annual attack rate estimated at 5% - 10% in adults and 20% - 30% in children.

NOT 5% of 7.2 billion.
5-10% of adults (so "most favorable to producing a high mortality rate" would be 10% based on adults alone) and 20-30% of children (where "most favorable to producing a high mortality rate" would be 30%).

Have fun figuring out how many "children" that is as not only do they NOT provide such numbers, but they don't even define "children".
Prepubescent? Everyone under 18? 16? Babies?

ON THE OTHER HAND...
8-10% is the number you get when comparing lowest number of deaths to lowest numbers of severe illness, while comparing highest numbers of deaths to highest numbers of severe illness.
It is a moderate guesstimate value based on known relations between known facts.

Just taking 5% out of 7.2 billion is practically the same as taking any random number.
8%. 19%. 56% 807%. Pumpkin %.
I.e. Completely unrelated to given facts.

The flu virus changes in ways that require us to update our vaccines practically every year. That makes a complete cure for the flu virtually impossible.

Again, that is not the issue. Vaccines are kept up to date.

From the same WHO report.

For many years WHO has updated its recommendation on vaccine composition biannually that targets the 3 (trivalent) most representative virus types in circulation (two subtypes of influenza A viruses and one B virus). Starting with the 2013-2014 northern hemisphere influenza season, quadrivalent vaccine composition has been recommended with a second influenza B virus in addition to the viruses in the conventional trivalent vaccines. Quadrivalent influenza vaccines are expected to provide wider protection against influenza B virus infections.

The issue is the unavailability of vaccines everywhere and the disregard of the disease as people "don't die of influenza very often".
With a dose of that general trend of fear of vaccination on top of it all.

Meanwhile, a couple of thousand dead, ONLY in Africa, over several decades, is a cause of panic because that disease is much more sexy.
Cause everyone dies from ebola. Almost nobody gets it but everyone DIES.
Clearly, we should all panic and duct-tape our doors and windows to stop the virus from coming in.

yesterday
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Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

denzacar Re:Dangerous virus (81 comments)

So I guess we shouldn't worry about Ebola either coz you don't think you'll ever get it either? Check your hipster-holier-then-thou-attitude at the door mate.

How about you check your words at your mouth and refrain from putting it into other people's mouths? Mate.
We should not panic about ebola. We SHOULD worry more about the flu, as it clearly kills hundreds of thousands each year.

How easy/hard to die from a disease is not an issue - it's how easily it spreads and IS it deadly.
Ebola is not airborne, it happens only in certain parts of Africa, it requires direct contact for transfer, and it is deadly.
Flu on the other hand, IS airborne, does NOT require direct contact, happens EVERYWHERE, and it is also deadly.

One of those two is a clear and present danger to EVERYONE.
One is an imaginary threat for the most of the planet, on the level of a terrorist attack with a dirty bomb.
I.e. It never happened. There was never an ebola pandemic.

Once an epidemic starts anywhere outside of Africa or some other tropical country with free roaming apes/monkeys - that's when the world needs to panic.
Until then... any panic outside of Africa is based on fantasy and delusion.

Meanwhile, due exactly to writing off of flu as "not scary" people forgo on vaccination - and we bury another 0.2-0.5 million.
While diligently panicking about ebola, sky falling down, terrorists, bronies and drinking from plastic cups.

Like with any disease, further research should be done to create a cure.
Meanwhile, 85% of the world can chill and relax and stop worrying about Dustin Hoffman possibly being infectious.

yesterday
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Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

denzacar Re:Dangerous virus (81 comments)

Yet, there was never a case of ebola in humans which originated outside of Africa and the total number of deaths EVER is counted in thousands FOR ALL THIS TIME and not in hundreds of thousands EACH YEAR.
There's a clue there regarding the nature of the disease. I.e. It's quick and deadly - it does not get to spread far.

And African nations which are currently dealing with, and which have historically had to deal with ebola outbreaks don't have "infrastructure that permits long term quarantine of all but a small handful of individuals" either.
Often, they don't have running water.
Yet... It's mere thousands of cases. Ever.
Again, quick and deadly - it does not get to spread far.

Nobody is arguing that it is not dangerous.
Just that as far as the number of fatalities and global issues go - it's trivial compared to influenza which kills a whole city of people and severely affects a small country of people. Each year.
But since it's not sexy and it's kinda like the common cold so many people confuse the two... meh... fuck those hundreds of thousands dead.

But let's all panic about a disease which has killed couple of thousand people who lived near a jungle in Africa, practically at their doorstep.

As for the penicillin, I already answered that couple of times in other posts and my reasoning there is quite similar to yours.

2 days ago
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Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

denzacar Re:Dangerous virus (81 comments)

Probably.
It probably took out a bacterial infection for which the influenza opened the doors.
It was the only thing other than the glucose I was given intravenously, just in case.

And it started working from the first shot I received in the morning at the doctor's office (now my doctor WAS on duty) as I was already feeling well enough to walk on my own around the hospital, following the doctors and nurses from examination room to examination room while being examined there later that day.

Had they said "Go home, you're fine." I would have.
But, the EKG said differently so I was provided with couple of nights in the intensive care, listening to delirious old men on the other side of the ward yelling and screaming all night.
Fun times.

2 days ago
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Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

denzacar Re:Dangerous virus (81 comments)

Same reason they later kept me on glucose for several days while allowing me to eat solid food - just in case and cause it fit the symptoms of an infection.
In this case, it took out the bacterial infection of the heart muscle for which the influenza opened up the doors.
Cough syrup on the other hand did diddly squat.

2 days ago
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Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

denzacar Re: Dangerous virus (81 comments)

It was effective against a bacterial inflammation of the heart muscle, for which influenza "opened the door".
Like I said, they never figured out what exactly was the cause, they just settled for viral once they ran out of congenital and parasitic causes.

Penicillin (probably a streptomycin combo) was administered "just in case".
Same as the glucose I was receiving intravenously for several days more, despite being quite able to eat and digest solid food - which I did as I was allowed to.

2 days ago
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Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

denzacar Re:Dangerous virus (81 comments)

You are working with rather imaginary numbers there.

For one, 5 percent of adults and whatever-percent of children won't give you that 5% number to multiply it with 7 billion.
And second, death tends to be a severe case. A VERY severe case.
Does WHO discount those deaths from severe cases? I don't know. They didn't say.

But it is a much more accurate shorthand to assume a correlation between the number of severe cases and the number of deaths and compare those numbers as percentages of the same population than what you did there.

Precise numbers are not an issue here anyway.
The fact that flu is a much more serious global problem than ebola is the issue.

2 days ago
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Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

denzacar Re:Dangerous virus (81 comments)

Dying the flu generally requires complicating conditions. Most people survive it just fine. Ebola is scary because most people don't survive it.

Following that logic, ebola is not scary simply because most people don't ever catch it.

Or are you arguing that since it's not your ass, you not being elderly, pregnant or a small child - fuck those weaklings dying in hundreds of thousands each year from a disease "Most people survive it just fine".

And again... Most people DO NOT GET THE FLU each year but simple common cold.
"3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths" comes to 8-10% fatalities.
That's about 3 kids dead in a class of 30 children. Every year.
But it's spread out across the globe and it happens mostly in "third world" countries so - fuck those weaklings.

Back in winter of '96 I had a case of actual flu.
As a teenager, wasn't really in an "at risk group", other than maybe having my immunity lowered.
Unfortunately, my doctor wasn't in that day and I was sent home (by a rather young doctor, rather fresh from the med school) with a prescription for cough syrup instead of a penicillin shot.

That night I had a fever of +40C, and ended up barely breathing by the morning.
Had to sit in a semi-reclined position to be able to breathe as it was difficult for me to do that while sitting or lying down.
Had to lean on my mother's arm to be able to walk to the doctor's office in the morning, about 200-300 meters downhill (mostly) from where I live.

There it turned out that I practically had a heart attack - an inflammation of the myocardium.
Ended up staying over at the hospital for couple of weeks and having tests and booster shots for next half a year - though I was "fixed" after couple of shots of penicillin, getting out of the bed and walking to the bathroom by myself that very night with no difficulty at all.
By tomorrow I felt ready to go home. Still had to stay though.

Funny thing is, during all my stay at the hospital doctors never figured out what was wrong with me. They were looking for congenital heart conditions, trichinosis... only much later as I kept being fine did they take a look back at the original symptoms and figured out that it was all a viral inflammation of the heart muscle.

THAT'S influenza!
"Most people" catch a cold and call that "the flu".

2 days ago
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Islamic State "Laptop of Doom" Hints At Plots Including Bubonic Plague

denzacar There. Fixed that for ya (360 comments)

Great, you DON'T get to run the country, because you are obviously smarter than 80% of the population.
Or better yet, you DON'T get to be the editor for every technical article ever.

That will be $29.95.

2 days ago
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Islamic State "Laptop of Doom" Hints At Plots Including Bubonic Plague

denzacar You are ignorant. Please get off the Internet. (360 comments)

Bubonic, Septicemic, Pneumonic, Pharyngeal, Meningeal and Cellulocutaneous plague are the SAME DISEASE.
Only distinction is the main area of infection and the vector which got it there.
It will shift from one form to the other as the disease progresses.

You're basically trying to be a smartass by saying something like "Ha! You fool! It's not a pastry. It's a croissant."

2 days ago
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Scientists Found the Origin of the Ebola Outbreak

denzacar Re:Dangerous virus (81 comments)

despite the fact flu is a much more common (and less "scary") disease.

Flu is killing 200.000 to 500.000 people globally every year.

http://www.who.int/mediacentre...

Influenza occurs globally with an annual attack rate estimated at 5% - 10% in adults and 20% - 30% in children.
Illnesses can result in hospitalization and death mainly among high-risk groups (the very young, elderly or chronically ill).
Worldwide, these annual epidemics are estimated to result in about 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness, and about 250 000 to 500 000 deaths.

It's just not that sexy to make a movie about it with Morgan Freeman, Dustin Hoffman and a monkey.
Plus people ignorant of distinction between common cold and influenza don't perceive it as a threat.
Which is a further reason why there is no movie with a monkey about it.

2 days ago
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Indiana University Researchers Get $1 Million Grant To Study Memes

denzacar For the humorless gits out there... (126 comments)

The main topic is memes, not the Federal deficit.
"TLDR", being a meme, many of which were quoted here, is actually ON TOPIC.

Which is funny all on its own, being that it is probably one of the few times that a reply such as TLDR is actually ON TOPIC, and it is funny as a reply to trolls who are trolling the topic with idiotic insinuations of "useless research causes Federal budget to collapse".

And it's triple funny cause though THEY are aware of being off-topic, moderators are not.
There...

Now...
Place your right forefinger on your right cheek, just above the right corner of your mouth, and your left forefinger at your left cheek, just above the left corner of your mouth.
With fingers in that position push the cheeks of your face gently upward.
While holding your cheeks in that position, open your mouth slightly, take a deep breath, and say "Ha!" rapidly three times while breading out with each "Ha!"
It may take a little practice to get it right first couple of years.
Observing how other humanoids perform the laughing ritual may help.

3 days ago
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South Carolina Student Arrested For "Killing Pet Dinosaur"

denzacar Re: Mandatory panic! (421 comments)

The question, rather, is how many of those registered are actually drafted.

No.

Replace "conscription law" with "death sentence" and see if "how many of those are actually carried out" and see if that makes sense.
A law is a law is a law.

Government MAY not enforce every single law fully as it lacks the capacity or willingness to enforce 100% of laws on the books, but the fact of an existence of such a law shows CLEAR INTENT TO ENFORCE IT.
They reformed the laws several times, yet they kept all elements needed for unforced conscription.

The paper that you cite does not necessarily support the notion of compulsory conscription.

You are missing the point of that citation. Reread my comment above again.

The paper lists MANY examples of circumstantial evidence of an existing and ongoing conscription.
What it DOES NOT DO is prove a "de facto" non-existence of conscription and an existence volunteer service in its stead.
BUT, it tries to argue such a position, despite the COMPLETE LACK of any evidence for its thesis.

I.e. It's bullshit.
And I'm not citing it as a proof of existence of conscription or volunteer service or non-existence of either, but as a source of that unsourced and unsubstantiated bullshit claim.

I'm not sure what your link to the Taiwanese kid story is supposed to prove

Again, reread my comment.
It is there as an example of tactics and means for deferment available to the urban population, and NOT available to the rural kids.

Taiwanese kid could afford such a stunt at 24 - i.e. 6 years after he became eligible.
For 6 years he dodged the service in the country you define as "one where conscription definitely does exist, and people are drafted against their will."

A rural kid of 18, trying the same dieting technique, would just be written off as underfed because he's from a poor village.
Older than average, emaciated kid among the group of well fed city kids 6 years younger... clearly he's sickly and incapable of service.
He probably even looked at least 30% older than all the other recruits.

And a city kid gets that 6 year buffer cause he has a high school right across the street and a college two blocks away.
Unlike the rural kid who probably walked couple of hours to and from school IF there was one that near, and who could never afford to go to a college unless he was exceptionally intelligent and studious so that he would get a scholarship to a college somewhere in the city.

While the rest of his class went off to serve.

5 days ago
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UK Prisons Ministry Fined For Lack of Encryption At Prisons

denzacar Re:Pointless accountability? (74 comments)

Easy.

You just have to realize that whoever wrote that "rather pointless" line is committing a fallacy.
You know... by not grasping things like separation of branches of government or things like internal control or even the idea that THE LAWS STILL APPLY.

He probably thinks that prison terms for government officials, be they politicians, soldiers, police or bureaucrats working in some office somewhere are equally pointless.
After all, they are all government employees, just like the judges who would sentence them, and that would be government sentencing itself - and that will never happen.
Ergo, if you work for the government in any way, you are free to commit crimes. Kill, steal, pillage, jaywalk... they can't touch you for you are the government.

Based on personal prejudice of "all government branches and officials being the same thing", he commits an existential fallacy... and from there you can attach any conclusion and it would be equally retarded.

5 days ago
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South Carolina Student Arrested For "Killing Pet Dinosaur"

denzacar Re: Mandatory panic! (421 comments)

First a correction.
The law I quoted above was changed in 1999, and the obligatory service is now 2 years, not 3-4.

Second... You are quoting a Wikipedia article(s) which fails to source its claim of "in practice - it's all volunteers".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/C...

Which is a claim, arising from some BS "is blue REALLY blue" philosophizing in a footnote in National Air and Space Intelligence Center's handbook on China's Airforce.
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/aw...

Which goes on and on, describing the whole compulsory registration process, the numbers and stats of 400.000 conscripts EACH YEAR, how many come from urban and rural (mostly rural) areas, how the law states that there is a 2 year sentence for NOT REGISTERING - and then they decide to bullshit about it all MAYBE-SORTA-KINDA being voluntary recruitment cause almost no one goes to jail for not registering.
Riiiiiight.

That's like saying that you don't need a driver's license cause almost no one goes to jail on account of driving without a license.
The same report, few pages earlier, mentions the prior practice of "volunteering" for 16 years (quotation marks included) after serving the obligatory 3 or 4 years, prior to 1999 reforms.
And the same section asking "Hey? Is this REALLY conscription? Or perhaps happy-fun-volunteer recruiting for fun and profit?" goes on and on about the issues and actions taken to ACTUALLY recruit college graduates.

Because there are almost no college graduates in the army. Because that is one of the exceptions for NOT serving - being in school.
Urban kids represent only about 33% of conscripts. Cause they have more means to avoid service until "aging out". To bend the law.
Starving oneself into exemption if needed - like that Taiwanese kid.

China IS reforming its military and its recruiting policies, but they will probably never completely eliminate the conscription.
Too many young single males and too much rural population with too much free time on their hands and nothing to do.
And while for most people being conscripted into military service is the closest they'll get to serving a prison sentence for something they didn't do - some actually benefit from military discipline and routine.
And that population sample tends to intersect with the sample of young, poor and (in China) rural boys with little access to higher education.

about a week ago
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South Carolina Student Arrested For "Killing Pet Dinosaur"

denzacar Re: Mandatory panic! (421 comments)

They have 3 years of service in the army, 4 in the navy.
Even with all those deferred "if he is the only worker in his family providing its means of subsistence or if he is a student in a full-time school" - that's still a LOT of recruits coming in every year.
Which necessitates a large military structure just to handle all those enlisted men.

In a country with such a large rural population (about 656.56 million, a lot of them poor) obligatory service like that boils down to essentially population control and education.
Through drilling-in obedience to authority and military discipline into 18-year-old teenage boys and through essentially removing them from the pool of potential fathers for 3-4 years.
Also, you're not neet while serving in the army.

about a week ago
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South Carolina Student Arrested For "Killing Pet Dinosaur"

denzacar Re:Mandatory panic! (421 comments)

What if you write "sword" instead?

about a week ago

Submissions

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TASER France building a Flying Saucer Taser

denzacar denzacar writes  |  more than 6 years ago

denzacar (181829) writes "Antoine di Zazzo, Managing Director of TASER — France told AFP that TASER France is "developing a mini-flying saucer like drone which could also fire Taser stun rounds on criminal suspects or rioting crowds."

He expects it to be launched next year and to be sold internationally by Taser.

So far, there is no mentioning of drones being invisible to the naked eye or not."

Link to Original Source

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