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How the World's Agricultural Boom Has Changed CO2 Cycles

dywolf Re:Problem? (175 comments)

In fact, let me expand further on that Iteritive part, as it refers both to the process of refining the models, but also to the models themselves.
and better explains how you ( Curunir_wolf ) are wrong.

Again referecing the quoted text:

Climate models, however, cannot predict the timing and intensity of La Niña and El Niño, natural cycles that greatly affect global temperature in the short-term by dictating the amount of heat available at the ocean surface.
By failing to account for these and other factors, the CMIP5 collection of climate models erroneously simulate more warming of Earth's surface than would be expected.
When the input into the climate models is adjusted to take into consideration both the warming and cooling influences on the climate that actually occurred, the models demonstrate remarkable agreement with the observed surface warming in the last 16 years.

That last statement is the important part.
The models themselves are iteritive. That means starting at say the year 1900 the model simulates a period of time, lets say one year. Its given a starting condition and then spits out an end state after one year. That end state then becomes the starting condition for the next iteration for the next simulated year. And so on down the road.

This leads to to a Garbage In, Garbage Out situation. Which is where that article about the mismatch and overestimation between models and observations caused by things like El Nino comes in. Because those events arent predictable they werent well represented in the models that paper examined. This led to a mismatch in the starting conditions the model would use and actual observations, resulting in an expectation that would deviant from observations, and that deviation would grow over time as more events occured. Basically we're talking a compounding error over time (or how 0.0005 arc seconds of angle deviation in a line produces no discernible deviation over very short distances, but stretched out to a few light years, and the deviation becomes quite significant).

And thats what those articles in skeptical science were showing: that when initial starting conditions for runs of the model covering periods of time immediately after such unpredictable events in the real world were adjusted to account for such events, ie include them in the starting conditions for the next run, the model's predictions were brought in line with observations.

But like I said.
You didnt bother to read the articles.
So you missed that part.

4 hours ago
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How the World's Agricultural Boom Has Changed CO2 Cycles

dywolf Re:Problem? (175 comments)

No, because its not true, for all the reasons i just stated int he other post. ie, you linked to something based on the title without understanding what it was saying, and without realizing that the provided links already addressed what you tried to say and accomplish.

and yes, there very much IS a correlation between temps and CO2. therefore, your assertion cannot be acknoledged, and to state otherwise at this point is to blatantly lie.
ie, you are lying. and you are a crackpot.

5 hours ago
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How the World's Agricultural Boom Has Changed CO2 Cycles

dywolf Re:Problem? (175 comments)

in other words, your sig is completely accurate.
you are a crackpot.

5 hours ago
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How the World's Agricultural Boom Has Changed CO2 Cycles

dywolf Re:Problem? (175 comments)

the statement "the models do match the observations" is factual in nature. that is, it is falsiable. it is either true, or it is not.

I said it is. and provided evidence for that.
its not a proganda site, but even if it were, it wouldnt matter.
Factual or falsifiable statements stand or fall on their own on the basis of evidence.

And you failed to provide any evidence that the models do not match the observations.
What you did, was to link without understanding. All you did was cherry pick one paper published in Nature, out of the dozens they have, that sounded like it confirmed your beliefs based on the title. Which is what a lot of deniers did, without undestanding what the paper is actualyl saying. That paper is about one data set, specifically the HadCRUT4 set. One of the major factors in that papers conclusions is El Nino/La Nina events that have both amplified and dampened temperatures in relation to expectations.

If you'd even bvothered to read the provided links you'd have seen that they actually deal specifically with the data set that that paper is about. And they talk about that dataset's relation to both models and actual observations. in other words, i already addressed your concerns, but you dont know that because you didnt bother to actually read before linking something that you dont understand. So you didnt see statements that address the issues raised in that paper, such as:

Climate models, however, cannot predict the timing and intensity of La Niña and El Niño, natural cycles that greatly affect global temperature in the short-term by dictating the amount of heat available at the ocean surface.
By failing to account for these and other factors, the CMIP5 collection of climate models erroneously simulate more warming of Earth's surface than would be expected.
When the input into the climate models is adjusted to take into consideration both the warming and cooling influences on the climate that actually occurred, the models demonstrate remarkable agreement with the observed surface warming in the last 16 years.

You missed another Nature article ( http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ncli... ) that partially address the concerns in the one you linked, and is about better addressing El Nino/La Nina events.

You also didnt see this handy GIF, which clearly illustrates the situation, and that the models are still within the expected envelope: http://skepticalscience.com//p...

That paper you linked wasnt an indictment of global warming or the models.
It was a climate scientist saying to his fellows "hey guys, we under/overestimated a few things, this is what we need to tweak in the models, especially in regards to El Nino/La Nina".

This isnt a definititive process, it is an iteritive one. And as time goes on, the tweaks get smaller and smaller, and the conformance between observations and expectations gets closer and closer. But some things cannot be accurately predicted yet, specifically El Nino and La Nina events which have a very large impact on observations and carry a significant impact on global weather and climate. It appeared for a bit that an El Nino was building for this year, though it never materialized, which would have dramatically altered global observations, making various places hotter, cooler, wetter, or drier than normal. These events cause short term spikes (higher highs, lower lows) in observations, but are not themselves invalidations of either observations or models.

5 hours ago
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Officer Not Charged In Michael Brown Shooting

dywolf Re:The "Protesters" (878 comments)

So your stance is: Racism and the unequal application of the law is ok, because that segment of society justifies it. ... ...

Please crawl back your hole and never speak again.

6 hours ago
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Officer Not Charged In Michael Brown Shooting

dywolf Re:Pathetic (878 comments)

youve been listening to too many conservatives if you believe those people are anyones heroes.

6 hours ago
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Officer Not Charged In Michael Brown Shooting

dywolf Re:I just don't understand (878 comments)

The bigger issue is that particular departments history of racial discrimination.
At this point, and in that context, Brown/Wilson doesnt even matter.
It was simply the straw that broke the camel's for that town, where they decided they'd had enough

They still need to ahve that discussion.
They need to resolve that department's problem with discrimination.
or else this is all going to happen all over again in the future.

7 hours ago
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Officer Not Charged In Michael Brown Shooting

dywolf Re:The "Protesters" (878 comments)

guess which group gets more press coverage

7 hours ago
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Officer Not Charged In Michael Brown Shooting

dywolf Re: Pathetic (878 comments)

so you're saying that special rules apply to big people in interactions with agents of the government?
that big people have fewer rights in said interactions, a lesser right to expect fair and just treatment?

7 hours ago
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Officer Not Charged In Michael Brown Shooting

dywolf Re: Pathetic (878 comments)

the prosecutor failed to recuse himself even though he has a definite history of siding with police and being lax in regards to charging or investigating them. you cant really say he did his level best to preserve the ideals of justice. he slow walked the entire process, didnt explain things in court for the record, there were leaks to the press from his office, all damning and prejudicial to the proceedings...

I'd be content to accept the official desicion if there werent so many problems with this particular Grand Jury proceeding.

and the physical evidence may seem to point towards it being justified, but that also doesnt excuse the fact this particular police department has a history of racial abuse, and that they reacted extremely poorly to the protests, putting further racial animus on display, caught on camera by the press. this incident was simply the tipping point for this town.

unfortuantely that whole discussion has been lost int he noise over Brown/Wilson, and rather than having the discussion they need to have, its going to go on the back burner. and erupt again further down the road.

7 hours ago
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"Barbie: I Can Be a Computer Engineer" Pulled From Amazon

dywolf Re:So close, so far (554 comments)

again: not a troll post.
equal rights is not special rights, by very definition.
special rights would be something like not having to pay taxes, like corporations, really rich folks, and churches.

8 hours ago
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NASA Offering Contracts To Encourage Asteroid Mining

dywolf Asteroid Redirection... (147 comments)

Nope...no military applications for that area of research and engineering.

And in other news, NASA's proposed asteroid missions have just been fully funded in perpetuity.

yesterday
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The EU Has a Plan To Break Up Google

dywolf Re:Google doesn't have a monopoly on ANYTHING. (320 comments)

1- It is clear that you are completely ignorant of the definitions of the words "socialist", "communist", and "Soviet".
--

2- It isn't the US that broke Germany's back. It was Russia. And Hitler's own obsession with it. We dont teach it in our history books nearly as well as we should. And people like you are poorer for it. There is no doubt that we contributed much of the technological might to the fight to counter the German's own (and even then we found just how far ahead of us they really were after the war).

But the numbers, the sheer numbers of attrition, both allied and axis, were provided by the Russians.
88% of all German casulaties were on the Russian Front.

The Western Front was nothing comapred to the Russian Front. There's a reason being "sent to the Russian Front" was considered a death sentence and used as a threat within Germany. On the Russian Front fighting was "between 400 German and Soviet divisions on the Eastern Front for four years. The front itself spanned 1,600 km. In the meantime, the fighting on the Western Front involved 15-20 divisions at most." ( http://www.globalresearch.ca/w... )

It as the Battle of Kursk that turned the tide of the war when a German advance was stopped for the first time before achieving its objectives, in one of the largest battles in human history. The Soviets incurred more 250,000 killed and 600,000 wounded. The Germans suffered 200,00 total casulaties, both fatal and wounded. One million casualties, in a single battle.

Total Russian casualties for the war would be between 20 and 30 MILLION, far larger than any other country except China (10-20 million), and comprising nearly half of all casualties in the European theater.

Keep in mind only a small portion of Germany's military might made life very difficult for all of the western allies (US, UK, France, etc), while the bulk of Germany's army was fighting Russia. If Hitler hadn't tried to take Russia, if he hadn't broken his own treaty with them, nothing the US did would have mattered. It was Russia that removed the German Army's will and capability to fight. It was Russia that absorbed the bulk of Hitlers might and eventually, slowly, beat him back.
It was Russia that won WWII.
--

3- You are troll:

You dont know basic facts.
You substitute your own bigoted opinions for facts.
You pass those opinions off as facts.
You then denigrate people who point that out.

yesterday
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The EU Has a Plan To Break Up Google

dywolf Re:Google doesn't have a monopoly on ANYTHING. (320 comments)

Fail. We arent talking about if you had a loaf of bread, and what you chose to do with it.

We are talking about if you had ALL THE LOAVES OF BREAD, and chose to tell others to do with it, or even withhold it entirely until certain conditions are met. That's the point when government steps in and says "nope". That's good for soecity. It keeps competition alive and active. It prevents stagnation int he economy. And most importantly, it lowers the chance of citizens getting themselves some of that bread youve been withhold via the The Pitchfork Method.

yesterday
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The EU Has a Plan To Break Up Google

dywolf Re:Google doesn't have a monopoly on ANYTHING. (320 comments)

Oh, but you'd be surprised at what comapnies can do without violating any laws. They have whole teams of lawyers to help them figure it out.

The problems is when private enterprise interfers in the business of other private enterprise.
Or did you never learn about Standard Oil as a kid?
Or trusts? Or monopolies?

Here's a clue: those things are fundamentally BAD for free enterprise.
That's why we make laws against them. Doing so fosters free enterprise by promoting and enabling competition.

yesterday
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How the World's Agricultural Boom Has Changed CO2 Cycles

dywolf Re:Corn Subsidies (175 comments)

You dont have to convince anyone.
Increased economic prosperity, freedom, and quality of life does it on its own.

yesterday
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How the World's Agricultural Boom Has Changed CO2 Cycles

dywolf Re:Problem? (175 comments)

They didnt say that this is a problem.
What they said is "human agriculture production has changed the CO2 cycle, causing higher highs and lower lows in the fluctuation of CO2 levels over the course of a year."
Which makes sense. Vast swaths of land are forced to be much more biologically active than they otherwise would be.
And it throws yet more cold water on the notion of "we can't affect the planet."

yesterday
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How the World's Agricultural Boom Has Changed CO2 Cycles

dywolf Re:Gay Sex! Agenda 21. (175 comments)

Its old, but largely still applicable.

yesterday

Submissions

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America's Internet is the Best, Europe's a failure, says Washington DC Expert

dywolf dywolf writes  |  about a year ago

dywolf (2673597) writes "Harry Alford, the CEO of the NBCC in Washington, D.C., has written that that America's Internet is the best in the world. "85% of Americans enjoy 100MBps internet, blowing away Europe where only 50 percent of households can access even one-third of that speed". And not only is our system the envy of the world, thanks to the deregulations of the Clinton Era telecommunications reforms and the free market, but Europe's internet access is a complete failure due to overregulation. "It's why America's Internet is faster than in leading Eurpean nations. The greatest Internet companies in the world — from Amazon to Facebook — are American companies. We should stick with the free-market system that's worked so well.""
Link to Original Source
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CEO of National Black Chamber of Congress says America's Internet is the Best

dywolf dywolf writes  |  about a year ago

dywolf (2673597) writes "Harry Alford, the CEO of the National Black Chamber of Congress in Washington, D.C., wrote into The Oklahoman newspaper to rebut a previous letter to the editor decrying the stat of America's Internet. He tells tell us not to fear, that America's Internet is the best in the world. Apparently "85% of Americans enjoy 100MBps internet, blowing away Europe where only 50 percent of households can access even one-third of that speed". And not only is our system the envy of the world, thanks to the deregulations of the Clinton Era telecommunications reforms, but Europe's internet access is a complete failure due to overregulation. The letter can be found here: http://newsok.com/free-market-system-worked-for-americas-internet/article/3879006"
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Writer extols crowd sourced crime solving...while ignoring it's failure

dywolf dywolf writes  |  about a year and a half ago

dywolf (2673597) writes "Gary C. Kessler, a contributor to CNN Opinion, has written a piece in which he extols the virtues of crowdsourcing, and how it helped capture the Bostom bombers....except for that part where crowdsourcing failed to indentity the real suspects, and actually led to some false accusations. He then goes on to talk about the privacy issues involved in constant public surveillance. From the article: "The Boston Marathon bombing investigation made use of crowdsourcing to collect photos and video from cell phones and surveillance cameras at an unprecedented level. These pictures were made public a little more than 72 hours after the explosions and the second suspect was arrested 29 hours later.
[...]
The U.S. Constitution does not explicitly offer citizens a right of privacy, although many court decisions certainly support such an ideal. Indeed, U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis is well known for his observation, 'The right to be left alone — the most comprehensive of rights, and the right most valued by a free people.'""

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Hostess, maker of Twinkies, to shutdown

dywolf dywolf writes  |  about 2 years ago

dywolf (2673597) writes "In a shocking and disturbing bit of news Hostess, unable to work out a new contract with its bakers who are striking, has filed for bankrupty and requested permission from the court to shutdown operations. The world's most perfect food in the upcoming apocalypse may disappear as the Twinkie supply dwindles."
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Electronic Arts pulls Bait and Switch with FIFA 13

dywolf dywolf writes  |  more than 2 years ago

dywolf (2673597) writes "Electronic Arts has released FIFA 13. The problem? It's FIFA 12 with a new box. Same graphics, same modes, literally the same everything. Other than new socks for your players."
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Indian Superbug gene found in American cat

dywolf dywolf writes  |  more than 2 years ago

dywolf (2673597) writes "The NDM-1 story has been long and contentious (my archive of posts is here), but from the first, two things have been clear. However the political battles fall out, medicine views the emergence of this gene as a catastrophe, because it edges organisms to the brink of being completely non-responsive to antibiotics, as untreatable as if the infections were contracted before the antibiotic era began. And because the gene resides in organisms that happily live in the gut without causing symptoms, NDM-1 has been a hidden catastrophe, crossing borders and entering hospitals without ever being detected."
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