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Cause and Effect: How a Revolutionary New Statistical Test Can Tease Them Apart

neilo_1701D Re:Finally prove climate change! (115 comments)

Now that they've found a way to filter out ("ignore") data that doesn't fit, maybe now they'll actually be able to conclusively prove that climate change exists!

AGW skeptic here, but I'd be very cautions about applying this technique to climatic data to try and prove anything.

This technique works best there there are a limited number (read: two) variables, and a clear cause & effect (ie. one variable is dependant). At least that's my understanding.

Climate data is mindbogglingly complex, with a huge number of know variables with known and unknown dependencies. Even something as seemingly straightforward as the carbon cycle has a large number of feedbacks, which (again as I understand it) would only mess this approach up.

To my mind, the AGW hypothesis either succeeds or fails based on the predictions it makes and how much in-line those predictions are with observed reality. Clever statistical tricks don't help nor lend credibility in either case.


Will Ripple Eclipse Bitcoin?

neilo_1701D Re:This was Hitler's dream (137 comments)

"My one true goal is create a system to transact in both cryptocurrency and regular fiat currency like the American dollar without passing through a central exchange."

  -A. Hitler, September 27th, 1941

Nice quote. And the source? Google can't find it.


Cause and Effect: How a Revolutionary New Statistical Test Can Tease Them Apart

neilo_1701D That 20% is the killer though (115 comments)

Reading through the article, it wasn't clear to me how it is determined whether it worked correctly or not.

But still, an interesting statistical breakthrough, and one that allows researches to ask interesting questions about their data.


Microsoft Gets Industry Support Against US Search Of Data In Ireland

neilo_1701D Re:Probably cruel but... (137 comments)

The problem here becomes precedent. If it's allowed once, it set a precedent for others. Say, for example, China wanted to seize emails... or Iran wanted to seize emails. That's not a great outcome, and yet they would have the legal precedent to make a case all the way up the chain of courts.

2 days ago

Linking Drought and Climate Change: Difficult To Do

neilo_1701D Re:It's difficult but (192 comments)

If anything, it's the opposite:


The graph shows the global annual counts for all hurricanes and major hurricanes. From '92 through '98, there was around 35 major hurricanes per year, falling this year to 29 major hurricanes. The peaks of the graph roughly correspond to el Nino years, with the stronger the el Nino the more hurricanes. If you consider a hurricane to be a heat transport mechanism to move heat from the oceans to space, this comes as no surprise.

Of course, the "more hurricanes" argument morphed into "less hurricanes but stronger" (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/02/22/global-warming-to-bring-s_n_471227.html), but once again the planet isn't co-operating with theory.

3 days ago

Apparent Islamic Terrorism Strikes Sydney

neilo_1701D Re:News for nerds? (873 comments)

Maybe not news for nerds, true. But it's Stuff That Matters.

And please explain how a breaking story where the facts are scarce gets classified as "Incendiary comment-bait garbage". A post like "Did the Orion craft just discover dark matter?" is nothing more than comment bait. But, from what we can see on TV, 'Apparent Islamic Terrorism Strikes Sydney' appears to be a very accurate title. In fact, the title allowed for doubt, in case the story changed.

So if you don't care for stories like this, don't fall for the bait click the link into the story. Life is so much more pleasant when you don't do crap like that.

4 days ago

Bank Security Software EULA Allows Spying On Users

neilo_1701D Re:How crazy (135 comments)

Yeah I trust IBM to only use the software to remotely collect *malicious* files from my system

Hey everyone! I've found somebody that trusts IBM!

Congratulations, Sir. You have joined a very elite club whose number (for some unfathomable reason) continue to shrink every day.

about a week ago

The Case For Flipping Your Monitor From Landscape to Portrait

neilo_1701D Re:moot with 4k monitors (566 comments)

with 4k monitors you're going to have alot of vertical pixels.

Oh dear god, I have enough trouble reading my 1920 x 1080 laptop screen at 24" without extra magnification on my glasses. Please, no more pixels. I'll have to start increasing the screen magnification - which negates any gain from higher resolutions!

about a week ago

Microsoft's New Windows Monetization Methods Could Mean 'Subscriptions'

neilo_1701D Re:I'm sorry (415 comments)

In Enterprise space, applications like Dynamics AX have a yearly fee. That fee buys you hotfixes, CU's and new versions.

If you stop paying your yearly fee, the application keeps working, can be reinstalled but no access to updates or product upgrades.

If you choose to stop paying, and then in 5 years a great new version come along, you restart your fees at the time you stopped, so in this case you need to pay 5 years to bring you current.

I've no problems with this concept extended into the OS. Just make sure I can reinstall the OS and bring it back up to the SP level I had before and all is fine.

about two weeks ago

A Backhanded Defense of Las Vegas' Taxi Regulation

neilo_1701D Re:We've already seen the alternative to regulatio (93 comments)

I've not heard of a single case of an Uber or Lyft ride going terribly wrong.

I guess it depends on your definition of "terribly wrong".

Uber Suspends Driver Accused of Sexual Assault (http://www.nbcwashington.com/news/local/Police-Make-Arrest-After-Woman-Accuses-Uber-Driver-of-Assault-268755481.html)

Uber driver accused of hammer attack on S.F. rider (http://www.sfgate.com/crime/article/Uber-driver-accused-of-hammer-attack-on-San-5783495.php)

Uber Driver Arrested For Allegedly Kidnapping California Woman (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/04/uber-driver-kidnapping-los-angeles_n_5442676.html)

Florida Uber driver says he grabbed customer’s breast because she wasn’t wearing a bra (http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/florida-uber-driver-grabs-female-passenger-breast-cops-article-1.1953167)

And then there's The Ten Worst Uber Horror Stories (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/11/19/the-ten-worst-uber-horror-stories.html)

about two weeks ago

10-Year-Old iTunes DRM Lawsuit Heading To Trial

neilo_1701D Re:Change in operations instead of cash.... (246 comments)

Let's not forget the early iPod was a FireWire device, back when PC's had USB. Looks like we better nail Intel / Microsoft / Dell / Toshiba / HP as well, as they actively supported this antitrust violation by not including FireWire as part of the PC spec back then.

about two weeks ago

10-Year-Old iTunes DRM Lawsuit Heading To Trial

neilo_1701D Oh, the entitlement... (246 comments)

Wow. Well, I better get started on my own lawsuits, as I can't install Microsoft Windows on my 68k Mac. Nor can I put diesel in my petrol car. And, heavens forbid, I can't play WMA encoded files on my iPod. And as for not being able to play a compact cassette on an 8-track player; well, Phillips better get a checkbook out and write some big checks, because of the damages I've suffered because of that.

Seriously, this is a case?

about two weeks ago

Australia Elaborates On a New Drift Model To Find MH370

neilo_1701D Re:beyond the realm of plausibility (154 comments)

Have a look at this visualization of 24 hours of flights over Europe: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

Now, as you watch that, think about what would happen if just one of those dots went dark.

It's a very, very hard problem if the planes stop telling us where they are.

about three weeks ago

Elusive Dark Matter May Be Detected With GPS Satellites

neilo_1701D Re:Explain it like I'm five (67 comments)

If you put two bar magnets next to each other, they tend to flip each other around so that they point in the same direction.

Wow. Where I come from, if I put two bar magnets together they flip around until they point in the opposite direction, with N joining S. But then again, I'm Australian: things are different in the Northern Hemisphere.

about a month ago

Will Lyft and Uber's Shared-Ride Service Hurt Public Transit?

neilo_1701D Re:It's only worth it (237 comments)

Some cities have quite nice and convenient public transit, and it can be even better if you live and work in the right places.

Yes, and they're all outside the United States. :-)

Really? I live in NJ, and work in Manhattan. My monthly PATH card costs $89; that $4.45/day, and my monthly MTA MetroCard costs $112; that's $5.60/day. I've a 5 minute walk to the PATH each day ad a 5 minute walk from the subway to my office. So for $5.02 a trip, I get from home to work on the (mostly) reliable PATH and the (somewhat more reliable) NY subway in an average time of 20 min (best is 15 min; worst was an hour).

The PATH is almost always clean (if a little packed in the mornings); the subway is the E line, which originates at WTC so the cars are cleaned and not so packed.

All in all, for my daily trip cost it's a pretty good service.

The alternatives are a taxi (good luck with getting one to cross from NJ to NY or the other way) or a car service. The times I've had to use a car service it was a $50 "mate's rates" fare one way, and took 30-40 min, thanks to the traffic in the Holland tunnel.

However, if there's an Uber or Lyft service that offers a one-way service from NJ to NY, can get me there in 15 minutes or less and costs less than five bucks, I'm game to try.

about a month ago

Big Data Knows When You Are About To Quit Your Job

neilo_1701D Re:Taking the Human out of Human Resources (185 comments)

This was covered in Manna (http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm).

The story is about how a burger chain installed software to "manage" employees by telling them to wear a headset and follow the commands given to them. Although not named as such, Manna was a realtime ERP system that managed employees in the most efficient way at any given point in time. The counter a bit slow? Reassign those employees to cleaning the restaurant, rest rooms, kitchen, whatever. Getting busy? More people on the cash registers & cooking.

Interesting story that goes off the rails towards the very end, but essentially a machine HR system.

about a month and a half ago

Windows 8 and 8.1 Pass 15% Market Share, Windows XP Drops Below 20% Mark

neilo_1701D Re:Windows 7 (192 comments)

Windows 8 is pretty good once you install something like Start8. They really have improved a lot of things. Aside from the Metro UI, use of which can be reduced over 95%, by using Start8 and setting your file associations right, what is so bad about Windows 8? It is a little bit less shiny, more boxy, but it runs fantastic.

Have you actually given it an honest try? Use it every day for two months, with a start menu replacement, and you will have enough time to realize all the good stuff.

I used Windows 8 for maybe 2 years; Windows 8.1 since I could install it. Then a few weeks ago wiped my machine and put Windows 7 back on. Much nicer. Windows 8 is a fine OS crippled by the UI.

But Windows 8 / 8.1 has at least one glaring fault: the remote desktop client.

If you have your screen set to anything other that 100%, the RD client screws up badly when connecting to another machine: it seems to miscalculate the font size for some Windows controls. The classic example is connecting to a terminal server running the Dynamics AX 2012 client: the left-hand side menubar blows up spectacularly, stealing far more screenspace than is needed - and, more importantly, it looks awful.

The solution is to use the Remote Desktop Connection Manager, which uses an older RD protocol that doesn't suffer from that bug.

Well, RDC Manager or Windows 7.

So the solution to making Windows 8 palatable is older technology.

about a month and a half ago

Ex-CBS Reporter Claims Government Agency Bugged Her Computer

neilo_1701D Re:She's.. (235 comments)

"And as I was typing and working on questions for a Benghazi-related story, the data started wiping kind of at hyperspeed"

Sounds like a scene from the first episode of Torchwood. In fact, the whole story sounds like a failed pilot TV show.

My favorite quote from the story:

But the most shocking finding, she says, was the discovery of three classified documents that Number One told her were “buried deep in your operating system. In a place that, unless you’re a some kind of computer whiz specialist, you wouldn’t even know exists.

"They probably planted them to be able to accuse you of having classified documents if they ever needed to do that at some point,” Number One added.

Documents magically being deleted at hyperspeed, other documents planted "deep in the operating system"... yeah, right.

about 2 months ago

The Classic Control Panel In Windows May Be Gone

neilo_1701D Re:And... (347 comments)

It will have even less functionality than before. Because they keep trying to "simplify" things for the dumb users out there, by removing any type of "advanced" feature. Which means you will be stuck having to manually edit the Registry or gpedit or through some third party software that allow access to those now "hidden" features.

First of all, I agree with the general thread that the Windows 8 GUI had no business being on a server. Heck; even Server 2008 R2 had all the chrome turned off and ran as close to NT4 as it possibly could.

But removing all the "advanced" stuff? Like what, precisely? If it's a DC, all the normal DC stuff is there (buried under the "Manage this server" nonsense). Because I can remember setting up NT4 and needing to specify IRQ and base settings for things like network cards. Back in the day, it was easier to install Windows 95 and let it autodiscover all the hardware settings, note them down and then install NT. I'm really happy to see those "advanced" settings gone and things "simplified".

As far as editing group policy, I don't know there is a way to simplify that. There are just so many policies that can be set Microsoft have (wisely) left "simplifying" that area alone (although I wish I could search through group policies for the setting I want).

about 2 months ago


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