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A Case For Unilateral US Nuclear Warhead Reductions

nitrogensixteen Re:Orbital rocket = ICBM (211 comments)

It's not worth arguing with this guy, as you can see that he thinks that a deterrent force is evidence of an offensive posture. It's like handing someone an orange, he says it's an apple, and then he attempts to prove it to you by getting you to admit that it is a fruit.

1 year,26 days
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A Case For Unilateral US Nuclear Warhead Reductions

nitrogensixteen Re:Orbital rocket = ICBM (211 comments)

If you are offended, please take the time to consider whether or not you are in fact ignorant (don't know about) of the complexities of nuclear warfare.
I wasn't intending to insult you by calling you ignorant, I was informing you of your ignorance concerning nuclear war and you took it personally for some reason. Are you a former FBM skipper, are you a former SAC bomber pilot, a former EAM processor? How would you have even gained knowledge of the basics of nuclear war?
Here's the tl;dr:
1) The Russians are not worried about a Chinese attack because PRC SRF does not provide the PRC with offensive nuclear capabilities.
2) The maintenance of a counter-value or counter-force deterrent capability is irrelevant to my position that the PRC does not maintain an offensive capability.
3) Orbital rocket programs absolutely do not provide all development information necessary to build and deploy an offensive nuclear program, which requires incredibly high accuracy and reliability, neither of which are expected outcomes of orbital programs.
4) If you accept that the Chinese force might only be for deterrence, then you implicitly accept that it is not offensive. Offensive means there exist a manner or scenario in which force employment can largely prevent the employment of adversary weapons.
The only nuclear states which can be considered to deploy offensive nuclear weapons systems are those which are capable of decapitating a nuclear state, destroying post-attack command and control systems, and then detecting, tracking, and targeting remaining survivable assets on the trans-SIOP battlefield. There are two actors which have developed and maintain this capability: the Russians and the Americans. All other states maintain deterrent forces only. The UK and France should definitely be considered as potential offensive actors as part of NATO nuclear weapons employment, but it must also be considered that the UK and France have taken significant actions in reducing their deployed warhead counts and capabilities.
You can keep arguing that China is seeking to develop or has an offensive capability, but you simply have NO IDEA what you are talking about.
China is spending their money on more cost-effective forms of deterrence, such as ASBM's, EW, littoral combat platforms, etc.

1 year,26 days
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A Case For Unilateral US Nuclear Warhead Reductions

nitrogensixteen Re:Orbital rocket = ICBM (211 comments)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People's_Republic_of_China_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction Follow any of the references regarding warhead utilization, or the FAS's research, or the BAS's research. Even the USG assesses the situation as such.
http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_China_Report_FINAL.pdf
China's nuclear force is the smallest of any nuclear weapons state. It does not maintain warheads mated to delivery vehicles.
Your ignorance surrounding the analog between pinpoint-precision MIRV/MARV'd solid-fueled stellar-guided advanced ICBM's and orbital rockets is pretty impressive, but analyzing your statements regarding Chinese rocket capability is absurd given that you don't even address the most important issue regarding the potential for offensive use of the Chinese strategic rocket force: THEY DON'T HAVE REMOTELY ENOUGH launchers. If you can't decapitate and then neutralize the US's strategic defence forces, then how you can you utilize your nuclear forces to prevent annihilating counter-battery? The answer is that you can't.
The only adversarial rocket force capable of even targeting all necessary US non-survivable assets is the Russian SRF. Period.

1 year,26 days
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A Case For Unilateral US Nuclear Warhead Reductions

nitrogensixteen Re:It's a about money. (211 comments)

Keep in mind that MIRV'd weapons are constrained to deliver warheads in proximity to each other. This fact means that it is more useful to look at launcher count vice warhead count.

1 year,26 days
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A Case For Unilateral US Nuclear Warhead Reductions

nitrogensixteen Re:It's a about money. (211 comments)

The blast radius is not limited by the curvature of the earth, as dispersion of an overpressure wave of sufficient magnitude would 'hug' the earth.
The blast zone is limited by energy deposited into the atmosphere surrounding the device following the chemical reactions which remove the transparency of the air surrounding the weapon, and former weapon materials.

1 year,26 days
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A Case For Unilateral US Nuclear Warhead Reductions

nitrogensixteen Re:It's a about money. (211 comments)

To start off, your carefully quoted list of rebuttals is so littered with misrepresentations and ignorance that I suspect it would make someone either (1) acquainted with the reality of the deployment and employment of nuclear weapons, or (2) trained in a nuclear science or engineering ... just make their head explode.
Those weapons have to be decommissioned at some point anyways, therefore if you engage in policies which dictate any maintenance fees be incurred, it is more expensive to keep them. This is obvious on its face, and arguing with this point can only be incredibly ignorant or disingenuous.
Most of the cost of maintaining nuclear weapons has nothing to do with military payroll, but costs incurred by in the maintenance of peripheral force structures necessary to support the force in the pre- and post-SIOP environment. The US strategic defense system is the most expensive and reliable engineered construct devised by man. DOD carves out a very large chunk of the nuclear pie, but it is not the majority, and the bulk of it goes to support forces which are single-purpose nuclear war fighters. So in the event force reductions made certain squadrons redundant, most of those jobs would go away.
Can you city any mathematical proof which states that it is safer for you and your greatest enemy to horde innumerable cataclysmic weapons? I suspect you can't, and you can name-drop conservative think tanks till you are blue in the face, but that doesn't change the fact that those studies chiefly concern weapons employment and using mathematics to ensure that the use of constrained resources such as warheads are optimal.
Also, neither the Brookings Institute nor the Santa Fe Institute did any foundational work on MAD, only retrospective analysis, which, in the context of the fact that billions of dollars of recurring contracts are wrapped up in the enterprise, is hardly surprising considering the amount of money laying around to throw to those willing to write for the purpose of supporting the current budget.
You proceed with a laundry list of useless strawmen that has nothing to do with the benefits of nuclear force reductions. What in the world does closing Gitmo have to do with the logic of nuclear force reductions?
Nuclear weapons materials fuel almost half of all reactors in the United States, whether it is Plutonium-based MOX or HEU going into naval reactors.
Commercial power reactors, in fact, start with a low-enriched Uranium fuel load, and convert a significant portion of the 238U into Plutonium, which is then fissioned and the energy converted. BWR fuel cycle leverages this more than PWR, but both would be completely uneconomical without the existence of this conversion. Also, for this reason, commercial reactors can, and have, been fueled with ex-weapon plutonium and uranium.
The plutonium that RTG's use is NOT the same plutonium as in weapons.

1 year,26 days
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A Case For Unilateral US Nuclear Warhead Reductions

nitrogensixteen Re:My Argument (211 comments)

The Chinese don't even deploy warheads mated to delivery vehicles. Any research whatsoever on China's nuclear force posture would reveal this. China's nuclear force is purely defensive, as of now, and there is no indication that China seeks expanded capabilities.

1 year,26 days
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A Case For Unilateral US Nuclear Warhead Reductions

nitrogensixteen Re:My Argument (211 comments)

10 nukes to "annihilate" China? This is simply malarkey.

1 year,26 days
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The Aging of Our Nuclear Power Plants Is Not So Graceful

nitrogensixteen Re:NIMBY (436 comments)

A good thing to keep in mind as you attempt to understand everyday engineered products is that: if analysis of an engineered product which is similarly deployed all over the world leads you to believe that the people who designed and built the device are idiots or missed something obvious, in all likelihood it is merely your ignorance of the dynamics of the physical reality of the system which precludes you from realizing the relatively optimality of the design.

about a year ago
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Research Reveals Low Exposure of Excellent Work By Female Scientists

nitrogensixteen Re:How does it compare? (245 comments)

The problem with his argument is structural. I don't expect you to understand what that means, because ... math.

about a year ago
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Research Reveals Low Exposure of Excellent Work By Female Scientists

nitrogensixteen Re:How does it compare? (245 comments)

So a math 'freak' assumes the conclusion ... to find the solution!
We'll need to find a good way to preserve that tenth of a child though.

about a year ago
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How Colleges Are Pushing Out the Poor To Court the Rich

nitrogensixteen Re:Goodbye (668 comments)

Oh the country to the north of the US which has almost identical unemployment, ranks below the US on the UN human development index, and is so fundamentally dependent on trade with the US that any financial crisis in the US immediately and significantly affects it?
That country?

about a year ago
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USAF Hypersonic Scramjet Successfully Scrams

nitrogensixteen Re:To circle the globe (201 comments)

The first part of a proper engineering evaluation is to ask the right question:
How far does a cruise missile, in the maximum, need to travel?
Halfway around the world.

about a year ago
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SOPA Creator Now In Charge of NSF Grants

nitrogensixteen Re:ah the anti-NSF crowd again (307 comments)

So why use the term 'violent crime' when you are only referring to gun violence?
Seems rather silly to use a phrase which has a clearly understood meaning to only refer to a subset of the events it describes.

about a year ago
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SOPA Creator Now In Charge of NSF Grants

nitrogensixteen Re:ah the anti-NSF crowd again (307 comments)

Not to burst your bubble, but the violent crime rate in England is not only higher than the US, but it is so much higher that the actual number of violent crimes in England is higher than the US, a country with SIX times the population.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/crime-stats/crime-statistics/period-ending-december-2012/stb-crime-in-england-and-wales--year-ending-december-2012.html#tab-Violence
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/violent-crime/violent-crime

about a year ago
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Explosions at the Boston Marathon

nitrogensixteen Re:tell me again (1105 comments)

You think there are states in the US where explosives can never be used, even for demolition or mining purposes? Does that actually sound reasonable to you?

about a year ago
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Is Bitcoin Mining a Real-World Environmental Problem?

nitrogensixteen Re:I guess it depends (595 comments)

Of course. History has taught us that once we realize that the systems we have spent many billions of dollars in developing are damaging the environment, those vested interests do not care to invest in well-funded, comprehensive, and effective schemes to manipulate political and media activities to prevent shutdown of those systems.

about a year ago
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Massive Data Leak Reveals How the Ultra Rich Hide Their Wealth

nitrogensixteen Re:Translation ... (893 comments)

because income taxes are the only taxes paid. sales taxes on gasoline, food, and necessary consumer goods don't apply to the poor. the poor go to the same schools as the rich? news to me. the poor have access to the same hospitals as the rich? what country do you live in?

about a year ago
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SendGrid Fires Employee After Firestorm Over Inappropriate Jokes

nitrogensixteen Re:More facetime (1145 comments)

Have you seen my cell phone? I'm sure it's around here somewhere.

about a year ago
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Airline Pilots Allowed To Dodge Security Screening

nitrogensixteen Re:Something more useful (285 comments)

If you know of a way to instantly test for actual intoxication of other drugs... 3) Profit! Ratio of aviation accidents caused by alcohol to other drugs = Large 'Following accidents, 91 employees -- averaging 18 out of every 1,000 -- tested positive for drug use. Random testing found just six out of every 1,000 employees tested positive. "This is a very, very rare occurrence," when compared to other industries such as trucking, where drug use is estimated at 20 to 30 out of every 1,000 employees, Li said.' http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/04/us-drug-use-linked-airplane-accidents-idUSTRE7235NY20110304

more than 2 years ago

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