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UN Study Shows Record-High Increases For Atmospheric CO2 In 2013

tbannist Re:Talking Point (427 comments)

When the climate change topic comes up, my brain automatically translates that the punitive corrective measures bandied about over the years...Carbon Tax, Environmental Regulation, and all the other proposed measures that wind up trading modest pollution levels for wideband economic austerity.

Why would you think that Carbon taxes or environmental regulation would actually trigger "wideband economic austerity"? We've been through similar measures at least twice before (CFCs and Acid Rain) and as non-intuitive as it may seem now, the interventions actually turned out to have a small positive effect on the economy. It turns out that when pollution is free, there is a certain inertia where companies often don't take steps that would actually be beneficial to their bottom line because the benefit is perceived to be small and potentially risky.

Furthermore, there are several countries (and areas withing individual countries) already have carbon taxes and regulation and they have not been driven out of business by their less-regulated competition. Norway, for example, has had a carbon tax for over 20 years.

5 days ago
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How Scientific Consensus Has Gotten a Bad Reputation

tbannist Re:Scientific Consensus (761 comments)

Science is about provability, consensus is about getting majority or even a plurality of opinions.

I'm afraid not. Mathematics is about provabiity. Science is about predictability (or understanding). That's why science must be repeatable.

These two things are mutually exclusive.

Again, I'm afraid not. You inevitably need a consensus that something has been "proven". You need independent verification that your results are correct and if no one can reproduce your results, they won't be accepted and won't be considered "proven".

Piltdown Man was once "consensus". We know how that turned out.

As early as 1913, David Waterston of King's College London published in Nature his conclusion that the sample consisted of an ape mandible and human skull. Likewise, French paleontologist Marcellin Boule concluded the same thing in 1915. A third opinion from American zoologist Gerrit Smith Miller concluded Piltdown's jaw came from a fossil ape. In 1923, Franz Weidenreich examined the remains and correctly reported that they consisted of a modern human cranium and an orangutan jaw with filed-down teeth.

- Piltdown Man page on Wikipedia

I'm not too familiar with the case, but I'm doubtful that there was ever a consensus on his piltdown man, even among the people that didn't want to believe that Dawson was a con man, there was much disagreement over how the fake find should be interpreted.

about a week ago
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Out of the Warehouse: Climate Researchers Rescue Long-Lost Satellite Images

tbannist Re:Straight to the pointless debate (136 comments)

If some dope seriously compromised the thermometer's accuracy, say buy putting it near a radiative surface, then accuracy is lost and you have to throw the data out. You can't average out the error and just subtract it from all the numbers. The data is useless - you cannot repair inaccurate data.

Where you're talking about measurements, there's a difference between accuracy and bias. An accurate instrument with a known bias can still be useful.

about two weeks ago
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Out of the Warehouse: Climate Researchers Rescue Long-Lost Satellite Images

tbannist Re:Straight to the pointless debate (136 comments)

The ground station temperature data has been quite thoroughly manipulated, always "adjusted" in the direction of confirming the theories of the researcher making the adjustment, Pardon my skepticism about that data.

Strangely enough BEST (partially funded by the Koch brothers) actually found that was not true. They actually found some the adjustments were over-correcting for warm bias and actually reducing the actual warming trend by a small amount. Unsurprisingly, adjustments are made to correct both unusual up and unusual down spikes in the temperature records which are often caused by changes in staffing, location, and methodology at temperature stations.

The satellite data, however, has no such shadow over it. It's good, solid data - the sort of thing one expects in science.

I don't think you actually know what you're talking about.

... then I'll be annoyed that the data source I trust has been mixed with adjusted data.

Too late, the satellite data has to be adjusted to be usable in the first place and UAH, for example, has been through 10 rounds of adjustments to correct various errors.

about two weeks ago
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Anita Sarkeesian, Creator of "Tropes vs. Women," Driven From Home By Trolls

tbannist Re: Her work (1262 comments)

Ok, so who are the patriarchy? I guarantee you wont have an answer or it will be so abstract that it can encompass everything like some conspiracy theory.

Your reply makes little sense. There is no "the patriarchy". That's like asking "who are the democracy"? Patriachy is a potential aspect of a society, as opposed to matriarchy and gender-neutrality.

I got another one for you. How can you tell if a character in a narrative is being sexually objectified? I guarantee you wont have that answer either.

Whether or not a character is being sexually objectified would likely be a subjective evaluation, though there are times where there is near unanimous agreement that it is happening.

If you are under the illusion that I'm some sort of gender crusader, you've been misled.

about two weeks ago
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Study: Antarctic Sea-Level Rising Faster Than Global Rate

tbannist Re:unfair policy (302 comments)

97% of research papers on climate change that stated a position on whether AGW is real, took an affirmative stance. But this ignores the many papers that were non-committal, and stated no opinion.

Why, exactly, would you consider the papers that don't talk about a topic when considering whether there is a consensus of support for that topic or not? If you were seeking to see if a dog would make a good pet, how many books about orangutans would you read? Also, the Cook paper also clearly states what percentage of the papers took a position on climate change (32.6%) in the abstract.

According to your logic, we can lower the support level for any topic by simply including more papers that don't take a position on the topic. It doesn't even have to be climate change. Why not gravity, the round-earth hypothesis, or religion. Hey, if we include enough irrelevant papers we can get the consensus level down to 0.0001% for anything.

about two weeks ago
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Study: Antarctic Sea-Level Rising Faster Than Global Rate

tbannist Re:unfair policy (302 comments)

The 97% comment is a lie [springer.com] and people who repeat it are not interested in the truth.

Following methodology of Legates (geographer), Soon (astrophysicist), Briggs (statistician), Monckton (public speaker), I can prove that gravity is a lie since only 0.01% of papers in the category of science specifically affirm that the force is real and affecting us. That's what they did to get only a 0.3% endorsement of the consensus view of climate change, they included papers that have nothing to do with global climate change to dilute the results. The Cook paper found that 97% of the papers that took a position favoured the consensus view.

about two weeks ago
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Study: Antarctic Sea-Level Rising Faster Than Global Rate

tbannist Re:unfair policy (302 comments)

The NIPCC Reports go to great lengths explaining exactly what the IPCC report on the same topic skipped over or misinterpreted.

Because, as we all know, an ideologically Libertarian political "think tank" funded by gas and coal owners is clearly the most reliable source of information on the effects of pollution released by the gas and coal industries and whether that pollution requires government intervention. There is absolutely no bias, no politics and no conflict of interest there.

about two weeks ago
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Study: Antarctic Sea-Level Rising Faster Than Global Rate

tbannist Re:unfair policy (302 comments)

Frankly, it seems par for the course that you rarely understand what you are reading when it concerns climate change.

about two weeks ago
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Anita Sarkeesian, Creator of "Tropes vs. Women," Driven From Home By Trolls

tbannist Re: Her work (1262 comments)

See this? This is why you come off as a lunatic nutjob with a paranoid obsession about feminists.

You have repeatedly lied and distorted the truth, and when confronted with your paranoid delusional twisting of facts, you focus on one tiny aspect of the commentary so you can ignore the substance of the argument. It is not me who is lying here, friend. It is you. Frankly, it looks like you need serious psychiatric help. Go get some.

about two weeks ago
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Anita Sarkeesian, Creator of "Tropes vs. Women," Driven From Home By Trolls

tbannist Re: Her work (1262 comments)

It is if the person you're pointing out is not a hate-monger, isn't it?

You're like that guy who denounced Tinky-Winky for being gay. Delusional and convinced of your righteous ways.

about three weeks ago
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Anita Sarkeesian, Creator of "Tropes vs. Women," Driven From Home By Trolls

tbannist Re: Her work (1262 comments)

I suspect that it isn't a reading comprehension problem, but that you are so on board with "men are evil" that you ignore anything said that doesn't fit your women are victims, men are evil narrative.

Sure I am. Go ahead and tell yourself whatever it takes to justify your actions and to dismiss any and all criticism.

about three weeks ago
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Anita Sarkeesian, Creator of "Tropes vs. Women," Driven From Home By Trolls

tbannist Re:Just proves the point (1262 comments)

I saw the images of the tweets she received. "Credible" is not even in the room while they're being read: no picture, no name, not an aged account, and obvious troll is obvious.

The no picture, no name, not an aged account is as indicative of harassment as it is of fraud. The things that were written were sufficent to land the writer in jail. Presuming the writer is actually harassing her, and smart enough to realize that he or she is breaking the law, and doesn't want to go to jail, then a new "burner" account would probably be their best choice.

about three weeks ago
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Anita Sarkeesian, Creator of "Tropes vs. Women," Driven From Home By Trolls

tbannist Re: Her work (1262 comments)

He can't, the stuff he claims is false, and he's referring to the Lego video part 2 on the site linked from the article description. I watched the video and can recognize enough of the real video through his darkly twisted lense.

about three weeks ago
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Anita Sarkeesian, Creator of "Tropes vs. Women," Driven From Home By Trolls

tbannist Re: Her work (1262 comments)

I watched that video because you mentioned it and you appear to have failed to understand the central point. It's not "commercials depicting fathers playing with their sons are bad", it's only having "commercials depicting fathers playing with their sons" alienates girls from playing with Lego by emphasizing that it is a "boy" toy. Additionally, it not "that products should not depict testosterone inspired activity", it's that Lego shifted their commericals from creative activity which has larger cross-gender appeal to boy-centered play themes like blowing stuff up, which again, alienates girls from playing with Lego because that type of play is generally les appealing to girls. In both cases, it is not the advertising that is the problem, it's the fact that there is no counterbalancing advertising. There are no mother and son, father and daughter or mother and daughter commericals, and there is no marketing focus on play that appeals to be both boys and girls or focus on play that specifically apeals to girls. She is not critcising the toy or even the company really, except that she is pointing out that for two decades, they made marketing campaigns aimed at boys and only boys.

And for that, you appear to believe that she and her family deserve to be threatened with rape, torture and execution...

about three weeks ago
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Net Neutrality Is 'Marxist,' According To a Koch-Backed Astroturf Group

tbannist Re:What's so American (531 comments)

And Marxism fails because it view labor as something nobody really wants to do ...

That is the exact opposite of how Marx viewed labour. For Marx, labour was the very essence of self-expression.

Indeed, it was Ayn Rand who viewed labor as something only a very small number of heroic, good-looking, and rich people wanted to do. Her theory was that the rest of humanity needs to be threatened with starvation or they would only steal from their betters.

about three weeks ago
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Cause of Global Warming 'Hiatus' Found Deep In the Atlantic

tbannist Re:Wait (465 comments)

What I and most of the "deniers" questioned falls into 2 categories.

Actually, no. You're falling for the false-consensus effect. There are a whole lot of different "denier" opinions, but yours is not one of them. You are making false cause with people who actually think that you're a deluded global warming apologist. The people who are correctly labelled as deniers are those who actually deny that global warming is happening. Generally, they deny that the greenhouse effect exists, that CO2 is a greenhouse gas, or they deny that man is producing significant amounts of CO2.

The people, like you, who claim that the models are overstating future warming and that unchecked global warming won't dangerous are luke-warmers, not deniers.

Most of the models Ive read about show that human activity is only a tiny sliver compared to other factors, especially water vapor from evaporation.

Let me explain a bit here. Water vapor is effectively constantly at saturation in the atmosphere, evaporation and precipitation keep it relatively well balanced. The major factor that determines how much water vapor is in the atmosphere is temperature. So, it's a feedback effect, water vapor amplifies the warming caused by other factors such as CO2 and Milankovitch cycles. Additionally, CO2 gets the lion's share of attention because it's a long lasting gas and we produce a lot of it. It will likely take centuries for CO2 levels to fall back to pre-industrial levels even if we cut emissions to zero right now. Other, more potent gases, tend to have half-lifes that are measured in years instead of decades or centuries and we produce orders of magnitude smallers amounts of them. So while CO2 is a relatively weak greenhouse gas, we produce a lot of it and some of the other gases, like water vapor, amplify it's effect.

about three weeks ago
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Cause of Global Warming 'Hiatus' Found Deep In the Atlantic

tbannist Re:What you're religion does (465 comments)

There's this thing called the internet. Perhaps, you've heard of it? It would be quite easy for all these supposed scientists who supposedly are being censored to form their own website (or journal even) and publish the papers that are supposedly being censored.

Of course, that actually has been attempted a couple of times, but on every occurence that I know of, it turned out the papers were rejected because the paper was fundamentally flawed, not because of the claimed political oppression. It turns out scientific journals want you to use facts, logic, and math. Who knew, right?

It's so much easier to claim that you're being oppressed than to admit you wasted months because you made some basic math errors.

about three weeks ago
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Cause of Global Warming 'Hiatus' Found Deep In the Atlantic

tbannist Re:Every week there's a new explanation of the hia (465 comments)

You're not in much of a position to be presuming to know what I think.

You've written multiple long-winded posts about how the Greenhouse Effect doesn't exist. Are you recanting those statements?

If so, then we should congratulate you and you win this one, if not, then's he right and you lose.

about three weeks ago
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NASA's Greenhouse Gas Observatory Captures 'First Light'

tbannist Re:fast forward 5 years.... (143 comments)

Nice try, but no. CAGW = Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming and it describes the point of view of alarmism on climate quite well.

There is no formal definition of what CAGW is, you could even stick to one definition for a single sentence, you used two very different examples of what it supposedly means. All in all, it's useful rhetorical trickery used to make sure you never have to deal honestly with people you disagree with. You always just one goalpost shift away from continuing the argument.

When public narrative out there uses terms like 'greatest moral challenge of our time',

Dealing with AGW may, in fact, be the "greatest moral challenge of our time" but that has nothing to do with your argument. It's a moral question of doing nothing now so we benefit at the cost of our inheritors, or take minor inconvenient actions now and pass the savings on to those who come after us. The cost of dealing with AGW adaptation and mitigation rises the more we delay on taking action. In addition, the atmosphere is a global commons, and dumping CO2 into it is a mostly invisible action. Can the world work together to achieve a universally beneficial goal when it's so easy to cheat the system?

You are free of course to disagree with that assessment, but my simply point is that phrase "greatest moral challenge of our time" does not need to imply that there a catastrophe lurking around the corner, perhaps you have confused it with "greatest mortal challenge of our time" which would indeed imply an incoming catastrophe.

and slogans like 'no jobs on a dead planet',

On the other hand "no jobs on a dead planet" is a union slogan, and slogans are often hyperbolic. It is a catchy phrase that clearly communicates the point that job concerns and environmental concerns are not mutually exclusive. It is possible that I am projecting my own views onto such groups, but until you mentioned it, I had never heard that particular slogan before.

Maybe you can actually reference skeptics how have done this, flip-flopped on data sets, doesn't change the fact that warming is not as much as projected. And you yourself keep changing your argument without explaining why you are abandoning your prior argument, first it was all statistical quackery, then it's not a big deal this slowdown, and now you are trying the 'a good defence is an offence' strategy by asserting skeptics are cyclical and selective in their datasets, when this is exactly what alarmists are doing by abandoning discussion of trends in favour of discussing instances where Tmax records are being set.

I have not changed or abandoned any of my previous arguments. It is statistical quackery, while atmospheric temperatures are rising slower than projected, those slower periods are common and expected. The quackery is in pretending that this is new and unprecedented and in choosing start and end dates to exaggerate the length of the period. Furthermore, the escalator graph clearly shows how if you followed the behaviour of these self-proclaimed skeptics you could always claim we are in a slow warming, no warming or cooling trend even while the temperature steadily rises. This is expected because the data is noisy and not monotonic. In every non-record year there is a previous higher record year, the slope from that year to any year except the next record setting year will always be below 0. This is simple mathematics and it is critically important to understanding how you are being manipulated. The current "no warming" rhetoric which you occasionally use is no different from the obviously incorrect use that could have been applied to any similar period in the past. Maybe you haven't been following my arguments as closely as you think you have?

Yeah that is interesting, the NASA link though is more about how the histogram of anomalies is trending decade to decade, I assume it is yearly or seasonally adjusted anomalies here, not daily Tmin Tmax records, but it shows a growing fat tail anomaly which does support overall higher likelyhood of max temps.

Yes.

SKS link is as trustworthy as SKS always is (as in not at all).

Ad hominem, don't attack the site, attack the argument. In this case they provided a link to the paper and summarised the findings, you didn't bother to indicate what you found "untrustworthy about that.

My original point is that record counts in a period of a pause after a period of warming is normal outcome for variable highly autocorrelated data. It does not invalidate the observation of a pause. It is actually consistent with it. The concluding point is that counting record events simply isn't a robust mechanism for qualitative analysis.

Just counting them isn't, but you can do some robust analysis based on frequency and distribution with a sufficiently large time period. For example, in a stable climate you would expect the frequency of extreme events to drop off and for them to be roughly evenly distributed towards warm and cold events. If your results differ significantly from that null hypothesis it indicates that the climate is not stable. That type of analysis can be informative.

When some skeptics make a big deal out of record winter lows, they are shouted down, and rightly so and they are shouted down by skeptics too. But presumably reporting on Tmax records and saying to paraphrase : "on-noes is the global warming!", is perfectly fine. Presumably. Actually... no.... it isn't okay.

Sure, a new daily maximum record isn't good evidence of global warming, but I can see how this argument relates to anything I actually wrote. I was still talking about the "pause" rhetoric and why it's statistical quackery. Specifically, if you choose the last record high as the starting point for a slope you can always choose a recent year where you can show the slope is negative or close to zero. It's deliberately misleading and very common among self-proclaimed skeptics.

about 1 month ago

Submissions

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Game of Throne Premiers

tbannist tbannist writes  |  more than 3 years ago

tbannist (230135) writes "The long anticipated Game of Throne series adapted from George R. R. Martin's epic novel finally premiered last night on HBO. Like many of HBO's other dramatic series, the show seems to combine strong acting and excellent production to bring the novel to life. Personally, I was rather impressed by the first episode and hope that series will continue as strongly as it started. According to metacritic, I'm not alone. They list average ratings of 82 out of 100 from critics and 9.5 out of 10 from users."
Link to Original Source
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tbannist tbannist writes  |  more than 7 years ago

tbannist (230135) writes "According to Gamasutra, a survey of Tokyo Game Show attendees indicates the PS3 is the most anticipated system with 58.3% indicating they were most interested in it, the Wii came in second with 33.8%, and the Xbox 360 trails with a mere 7.9%. On the other hand, only 10.5% of of the respondents indicated they intended to buy a PS3 at launch, while 17.8% indicated they would buy a Wii at launch, and for some reason 1.4% indicated they would buy a Xbox 360 "at launch" as well."

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