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Comment Re:1% (Score 1) 118

Tesla sales curves are growing at a factor of 1.5x annually, which is the definition of exponential.

However this will no longer be the case when they ship the Model 3 in late 2017, since at that point sales are expected to grow by a factor of 2x for a couple of years.

Comment Re:fun fact (Score 2) 118

This is false. The car industry likes to say as a joke that the first car costs 1 billion to make, and every other car thereafter costs $1,500 in parts and labor. This is so because design and factory tooling are ultra expensive, but once the line is up and running the costs drop precipitously.

Now, this expression comes from the early 80s, so you need to adjust the figures for inflation, but you get the picture.

What this means is that it takes years to amortize the cost of car design and factory tooling and only in later years of production do you start making money from each model. Tesla's model S has already amortized it's design costs, but not yet their factory tooling costs as until very recently they were still growing by leaps and bounds their plant to meet enormous demand.

In the meantime accounting ignoramuses like yourself can get to say that they are losing $7K per car. Nothing further from the truth.

Comment Dire predictions (Score 1) 354

I believe in general in Global Warming, however I've always been very uncomfortable with the dire tone of the weather predictions and the certainty in which they are stated. Here's how I would say it:

1. Fact: We are producing increasingly more CO2 since the 1800s

2. Fact: In a closed unchanging system this would create global warming.

3. Fact: We know of no mechanism that would remove that much C02 from the atmosphere, however, we are a bit uncertain about how much exactly will be extracted by natural processes.

4. Left unchecked and without counter measures, all manner of bad things could happen (famine, flooding of low level areas), however one would expect that countermeasures for these will be taken, such as dutch style sea walls around all low lying coastal cities in the world.

5. Some of our computer models predict awful scenarios such as storms, however our computer models are highly imprecise even under unchanging conditions, and all the more so in a world with changing temperatures. They are our best guess of what would happen, but the degree of uncertainty is pretty high.

6. There is no such thing as point of no return. This is not a nuclear chain reaction that cannot be stopped.

7. It is difficult to predict what will be the impact of some lands turning into deserts while others become feasible land for agriculture.

8. It is equally difficult to predict how wildlife will adapt to this. Will they migrate? become extinct?

9. Surprisingly and contrary to what we would expect we do not see a linear direct correlation between CO2 and the earth's temperature. Modeling this correlation remains one of the big open questions of science today (a similar thing happened with fluorocarbons where initially the chemical processes involved were not very well understood. the persons who resolved this conundrum eventually won the nobel prize of chemistry).

Comment Re:Shorter hours (Score 1) 910

None of this is true. Developed countries offer healthcare far beyond minimal and there is plenty of medicine being developed outside of America. HIV virus was discovered in France, Ebola vaccine in Canada, latest Nobel Prize in Medicine went to a Japanese, etc.

As I said, Americans keep on making up reasons why it is not implementable, in spite of over 30 developed countries who have it, at a lower price and with a higher life expectancy.

Comment Re:So it appears . . . (Score 1) 185

This is yet another reason why I think Elon Musk's plans for Mars are on the optimistic side. I think we'll be doing great if a human lands in Mars before 2040, and a small permanent station is running by 2080.

An actual colony, with Martians? not before 2200. Think about it, we reached the South Pole over 100 years ago and even so we still don't have Antarctians permanently living there.

Comment Re:Holy flamebait batman! (Score 1) 910

Are you being sarcastic? because this is exactly what just happened during the great recession. Enormous amounts of money were added to the M1 money supply by central banks the world over, but rich people chose to stash it all away and the result is little to no inflation.

Comment Re:Holy flamebait batman! (Score 1) 910

he would now be the candidate of the Democratic party.

Hmm... I wonder if he would have been competitive in the general election though. If only we had an example of a more radical candidate who gets chosen by the radicalized base but fails to connect with the average voter.

Nope, can't think of any.

Comment Shorter hours (Score 4, Insightful) 910

We need to plan for a future where people work a lot less hours. Either 4 days a week, or the standard 5 days but with three month vacations. We already have examples of how this can work. There are plenty of YouTube channels of people who work for a while and then travel for a while e.g. Sailing La Vagabonde, Kombi Life, SV Delos (or at least they did before they became YouTube celebrities).

For people in NorthAmerica both of these options will sound shocking and impossible to implement in practice, even though Europe is not far from already having those in place***

*** This is not unlike universal healthcare, which works quite well in every developed country in the world, yet it is assumed to be utopic (or straight out communist) in the USA.

Comment Re:Can I run for president? (Score 1, Offtopic) 275

Because a mass murderer

Not that we are exaggerating or anything.

that is a psychopathic compulsive liar and traitor

Now you have me really confused. I thought you were talking about Hillary, but the proven compulsive liar is Trump. He lies every 3 minutes or 75% of the time. It is difficult to find a single thing he hasn't spoken in favor of and against it, including Clinton's performance as secretary of state and her stamina.

that has written, by her own hand,

So we are back to Hillary, because of the two the only one who can write by her own hand is her.

that she needs "compliant and uneducated" voters to win,

And now back to Trump "I love the uneducated", "I don't need women to win" candidate.

Funny how the left project what Killary actually is onto Trump.

Now you are talking about yourself, where you just projected half of Trump's most defining characteristics onto Hillary.

The uneducated (by design) Demo voters

Study after study has shown that the uneducated tend to lean Republican over Democrat.

They never learn, by design.

In the last eight years only one party has had two post-mortems after losing the presidential election that were completely ignored. I'll let you work out which party was that.

So realize that even the Demo 'leadership' thinks you're an Idiot when you vote for them.

Again more projection. Democrats promise, and overall deliver improved economic conditions for the lowest level (combination of welfare, medicare, higher minimum wages, lower taxes for poor people). Republicans for the most part deliver improved conditions for rich people and businesses which so far in 20 years of republican administrations since trickle down economics was first proposed have failed to reach the bottom classes.

So if you are poor (like most of the Southern Red States) and vote Republican you are either an idiot, or motivated by other considerations that are more important to you than $, such as I don't know, hmm, can't think of any....

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