So we could already be in the start of our own extinction level event and not realize it?
If you were trying to observe a black hole, trying to keep a safe distance, how would you know whether you had crossed the event horizon? It's not like there is a sign posted at the boundary.
In a stack of dominoes falling, if the first three dominoes had fallen, wouldn't there still, at that moment, be a lot of dominoes left standing. Couldn't one argue that there really isn't any danger and it's all overblown that all the dominoes will fall.
Oh, and I agree. I'm old enough to believe that it is highly likely that if there are humans left in 200 years, they will be vastly fewer in number and living in primitive conditions. Technology is extremely brittle. We fool ourselves to think it is not. If the power grid were down for two weeks, society would devolve into barbarian survival fighting. Cars out of fuel. No more fuel deliveries. No power to pump the fuel to even refuel the trucks or run refineries. Grocery stores stripped bare within one week. I don't mean to be a pessimist. Just a realist. The glass isn't half empty. (Nor half full.) The glass is simply too large -- or rather, it is what it is. Too large a population wanting too much energy, generating too much pollution for the balloon to keep inflating forever. It is now beyond obvious that individual greed will prevent humans from doing anything about this because it is not profitable to a few individuals. Human nature. People have difficulty accepting that things could get worse. Much worse. But bad things have happened in the past. The middle ages. The holocaust. And bad things can happen again. And on a much larger and irreversible scale. Wishful thinking all you want to. That doesn't make it so.