> The industry I'm in requires 7-10 years of future supply availability for things we design/validate... so, we tend to stay away from the EBay bargains
Which pretty much ends up being the same thing, as far as driver support goes - you need to have confidence that it will still be supported in the future, when it becomes an eBay bargain. What you're starting to use today, I'll start using in five years - and you'll still be using it.
It's not uncommon on the Linux Kernel mailing List to see a post "is anybody still using 1999-era Foo hardware from Bar Inc? If not, we may remove support." If somebody is still using it, the general policy is that the newest kernel should keep supporting it. Of course we have to *know* that somebody is still using it, so if you rely on hardware that's 15+ years old it would be good to monitor support.
My understanding is that the same is not true of Windows - you can't even email their engineer in charge of hardware X, much less will he continue support for you. You -can- email most any Linux maintainer, and they'll respond (but see ESR's Smart Questions document).
As you probably know, enterprise distributions like RHEL/CentOS support the entire distro for up to ten years. Red Hat / CentOS 7 EOL is 2024, so anything supported by CentOS 7 today will still be supported at least until 2024.
If it were me, if I wanted support for a brand new consumer device that just came out last week, I'd bet on Windows. If I wanted long-term support, to have the device supported when it's ten years old, I'd definitely bet on Linux.