I find that #6 is probably the most likely, but also the most likely to be survivable (we've survived supervolcanos before as a species). Followed by #4 and #1.
Most of the astronomical ones like a Black Hole or Gamma Ray Burst are not incredibly likely. A GRB could, in theory come from anywhere, but you need some sort of generator for one, and it has to be close enough that it will not have dispersed. We have a good idea what causes GRBs and those objects are not exactly stealthy and we're not aware of such a thing anywhere nearby.
A black hole would have to be one that is currently dormant and invisible to us. Possible, if it really is in stealth mode, but unlikely. Most stars we have seen will never even see a black hole, and there's no reason to believe we will either.
Solar storms can be nasty, but unless it is extremely serious, it's just going to scorch us a little bit and blow out our power grid. Casualties likely in certain areas, but mostly just expensive to fix and restore services.